Top Market Timers Are Bullish

Mark Hulbert reports at Market Watch that, based on his survey, “the stock market timers with the best records are bullish, on balance, while those with the worst records are bearish.” He notes that this remains true when periods ranging from 12-months to 20-years are used to assess performance. Further, “since the stock market over […]

Margin Debt as Indicator: Bearish Signals Writes Hulbert

In his MarketWatch column, Mark Hulbert highlights the use of margin debt as a market indicator. Margin debt is the total amount investors borrow to purchase stocks. As Hulbert notes, research by Norman Fosback, former president of the Institute for Econometric Research, concludes that “a good long-term indicator can be created by comparing total margin […]

We May Be More Than Half through A Bear Market

Mark Hulbert writes in MarkWatch: “not infrequently, a bear-market declaration often amounts to little more than closing the barn door after the horses have left.” A bear market is typically defined by a 20% or greater decline in stock prices. In the last U.S. bear market (2011), for example, “the early-October day when the S&P […]

Dow Transports Index Has “Bearish Implications”

Weakness in the Dow Jones Transportation Average, which is the oldest stock market index, has “bearish implications,” according to Mark Hulbert of MarketWatch. A recent U.S. Department of Transportation report concluded that, over the past three decades, the index “led slowdowns in the economy by an average of four to five months.” Hulbert also cites […]

MarketWatch’s Hulbert: Now Could Be the Time for Small-Caps

Mark Hulbert writes in MarketWatch that “all of [the small-cap] sector’s much-vaulted historical relative strength has come at the end of December and early January,” as reflected in the monthly average outperformance of small-caps vs. large-caps 1926-2015. According to Dartmouth professor Ken French, small-caps usually hit a low around December 20, followed by the highest […]

A Sound Way to Protect Your Assets From a Bear

Mark Hulbert, writing for the Wall Street Journal, explored what asset classes performed the best during a bear market. He found that, “Almost every stock-market sector has suffered in each of the bear markets of the past 90 years. This is the case even for categories that are widely believed to provide downside protection, such […]