In the aggregate, forecasters may be “roughly as accurate as a dart-throwing chimp,” but some forecasters are particularly and consistently far better than average. Credit Suisse reports that the book Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction by Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner provides important insights into how to improve forecasting skill, perhaps by as much as 60%. In other […]
AAII editor Charles Rotblut, CFA, interviewed Michael Mauboussin, head of Global Financial Strategies at Credit Suisse, about the role of both luck and skill in investing (subscription required). According to Mauboussin, to separate skill from luck, you first have to look at the process that generates the output you are looking to achieve. In order […]
In a great interview with Barry Ritholtz on Bloomberg View, Michael Maboussin of Credit Suisse and Columbia University offered some intriguing insights into the role of luck in investing, and the qualities of successful investors.
Are successful investors good, or just lucky? In a recent interview with Morningstar, Credit Suisse’s Michael Mauboussin says they’re luckier than you think — but still have some skill. Mauboussin, who has done extensive research into the topic of skill vs. luck, says one way to test whether any skill is involved in an activity […]
Several top strategists recently spoke at the CFA Institute Equity Research and Valuation Conference, and The Motley Fool’s Bryan Hinmon and Michael Olsen highlighted a few pieces of advice from these gurus. One was author and Wharton Profesor Jeremy Siegel, who advised that “stocks are cheap”. Siegel said stocks are trading below average historical valuations, […]