Can Investors Time the Market By Going Against the Flow?

Yale professor Roger Ibbotson and Research Affiliates founder Rob Arnott debated the challenges and opportunities of timing the market at the 2015 Schwab IMPACT conference.  As reported by Financial Advisor, the two speakers generally agreed that “the stocks that are the most popular will do the worst, as Ibbotson said, or, as Arnott put it, […]

Arnott Still Sees Low Returns Ahead

While stocks have been climbing higher, fundamental indexing guru Rob Arnott of Research Affiliates hasn’t changed his outlook for the coming decade — and it’s not an optimistic one. In a recent column for MarketWatch, Mark Hulbert looks at a forecasting model Arnott uses that has been highly accurate over the past century-plus. The model […]

Arnott: Time To Take Risk Off Table

Top fund manager Rob Arnott says that it’s becoming “embarrassing” to admit you’re a bear lately, and that means it’s time to be cautious. “If you look at advisor sentiment surveys, you find that right now there are fewer bears than have been seen in these surveys except at extreme major market tops, such as […]

Arnott: “3-D Hurricane” Still Bound For U.S.

Though the market and economy have been looking up recently, Rob Arnott says he still expects a “3-D Hurricane” to cause problems in coming years. The three Ds — debt, deficit, and demographics — should cause investors to lower their expectations, Arnott said during the keynote session of the ETF Virtual Summit, Advisor One reports. […]

Where Arnott Sees Value

Rob Arnott of Research Affiliates and PIMCO is finding value in emerging market stocks and high-yield bonds. Arnott tells Brett Arends of The Wall Street Journal that emerging-market stocks have lagged those in the U.S. over the past five years, and are now considerably more attractive than U.S. stocks. And, while high-yield bond yields have […]

Top Forecasting Model Offers Bad News

Wondering how the stock market will do over the next 10 years? MarketWatch’s Mark Hulbert says one pretty reliable forecasting model has a disappointing answer. Hulbert says that the model — a variant of the “dividend yield model” — is indicating stocks will return just 5.6% annualized over the next decade, and that’s before inflation. […]