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The Guru Investor Blog

Thoughts, Ideas and Insights from Top Minds in the Investment World
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Fri, 27 Nov 2015 10:04 AM

Buffett on America's Progress and Why he Remains a Long Term Optimist

Asked what he is optimistic about, Warren Buffett reflects on some key points of progress over his lifetime and suggests some things we might all be thankful for.  “If I’d been born 200 years ago my life would have been just a tiny, tiny, tiny fraction of what it is now,” he noted, continuing: “I tell the students [they] are view full post

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Thu, 26 Nov 2015 2:57 PM

Leading Fund Managers Offer Bullish and Bearish Predictions

  Financial Advisor magazine offers up brief predictions by some top fund managers.  Ruchir Sharma, of Morgan Stanely, says “We are now just one big shock away from a global downturn, and the next one seems most likely to originate in China.” Yang Zhao, chief economist with Nomura Holdings, seems to disagree: “Is there going to be a hard landing view full post

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Wed, 25 Nov 2015 11:54 AM

Learning from Swensen's Success at Yale

Yale’s endowment fund has performed exceptionally well under David Swensen, returning an average of 10% per year since 2005, beating all major stock indexes and all but 2 of Morningstar’s mutual fund categories. Morningstar's John Rekenthaler suggests that this outperformance comes from Swensen's unconventional choices, but quickly quickly parrots Swensen’s advice to individual investors: “don’t try this at home.” So view full post

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Tue, 24 Nov 2015 4:22 PM

AQR Tests Market Timing Techniques, Helping to Boost Long Term Returns

  A recent article by Cliff Asness and colleagues from AQR Capital Management challenges the academic finance recommendation to avoid attempts to time the market. “Sinning a little,” Asness and colleagues suggest, can boost returns.  Among other things, they suggested trimming exposure to stocks in October 2015, as the article went to print, by holding more cash. The article uses view full post

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Tue, 24 Nov 2015 2:18 PM

Fed Rate Hike Could Cause Market "Accident" Says DoubleLine Exec

Bonnie Baha, head of global developed credit at DoubleLine Capital LP, said “I think there is a high probability of an accident” if the Fed raises rates in 2015. She said that a rate hike would be “like putting your foot on the brake when there’s no gas in the car to begin with,” suggesting it could trigger a “tightening view full post

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Mon, 23 Nov 2015 2:21 PM

Long Term Champ Sequoia Fund Shows the Risk of Ultra High Portfolio Concentration

The Sequoia Fund, managed by proteges of Warren Buffett, highlights the risks of focusing on just a few stocks.  Although it has one of the best long-term records of any actively managed mutual fund, two of its directors recently retired because a big bet on just one stock, Valent Pharaceuticals, turned out poorly. The tradition of an “under-diversified” portfolio, however, view full post

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Mon, 23 Nov 2015 11:29 AM

Can Investors Time the Market By Going Against the Flow?

Yale professor Roger Ibbotson and Research Affiliates founder Rob Arnott debated the challenges and opportunities of timing the market at the 2015 Schwab IMPACT conference.  As reported by Financial Advisor, the two speakers generally agreed that “the stocks that are the most popular will do the worst, as Ibbotson said, or, as Arnott put it, “you just have to find view full post

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Fri, 20 Nov 2015 12:44 PM

When It Comes To Growth Or Value, Have Your Cake And Eat It Too

It’s extremely common to hear investment commentators talk about “growth” and “value” as though they are polar opposites. But Validea CEO John Reese says not to buy that false notion. “When it comes to investing's great ‘either/or’ - that is, the growth or value debate - you can have your cake and eat it, too,” Reese writes for Canada’s Globe view full post

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Thu, 19 Nov 2015 6:13 PM

Jim Rogers Sees A Global Bear Market Coming

  Jim Rogers, known for the 4,200% gain he and partner George Soros secured over a decade in the 1970s, told a Barron’s interviewer that he sees a significant bear market coming. “In America we've had economic setbacks every 4 to 7 years since the beginning of the Republic and chances are that we're certainly getting closer to being due view full post

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