Hulbert: Small-Cap Value Stocks May Be Ripe for Impressive Gains

Small-cap value stocks are risky but they also historically produce jaw-dropping gains at the begining of bull markets, Mark Hulbert writes in the New York Times. Referencing academic research performed by professors Eugene Fama (University of Chicago) and Kenneth French (Dartmouth), Hulbert writes that small-cap value stocks (stocks with the lowest price/book ratios) “gained 17.1 […]

Schwab CIO: Bounce Will Be Big — Don’t Miss It

Jeff Mortimer, chief investment officer of Charles Schwab’s mutual fund division, tells Fortune that the coming turnaround in the stock market will be a big one, and that investors should be building their positions now. Mortimer says that 47 percent of bull market gains usually come in the first 12 months, before many investors have […]

Is Buffett Market Timing?

Warren Buffett stated in his recent New York Times Op-Ed that he had begun buying U.S. stocks for his personal portfolio, in which he previously held only Treasuries. Does that make him a market timer of sorts? Morningstar’s John Coumarianos offers some interesting thoughts on that question, focusing his answer on the difference between value […]

Every Stock Fund In Red for 2008

A sign of how tough the market has been this year: Through November 24, every long stock fund tracked by Morningstar — that’s right, every single long stock fund — had lost ground in 2008. That includes 10,085 U.S. funds (which, on average, had lost 44.47 percent) and 2,912 international funds (which had lost an […]

Stocks “Reasonably Cheap” for First Time Since 1980s, Says Grantham

Jeremy Grantham, one of the few who saw the current credit crisis coming, provides some thoughtful comments on the crisis, asset bubbles, the stock market’s current valuation and how individual investors might consider looking at the equity markets right now. Speaking with Consuelo Mack on WealthTrack, Grantham (co-founder and chairman of GMO LLC), who has […]

Tilson, Heins See Upside

In Kiplinger’s Discovering Value column, Whitney Tilson and John Heins say there are two silver linings that have emerged from the market turmoil. The first is that the unprecedented market volatility might be the signal of a stock market bottom, and once that bottom is reached the market could generate some impressive gains. The second […]

Buffett: Unemployment to Get “Considerably Higher”

Warren Buffett tells Fox Business that he expects American job losses will continue to mount well into next year, and that unemployment will be well above the 6-6.5% range by mid-2009. “It’ll be considerably higher. … I wish it weren’t the case, but there is no way to change a negative feedback cycle like we’re […]

New S&P Study: Most Fund Managers Fail to Beat Market

Add a new piece of evidence to the notion that most active fund managers fail to beat their benchmark indices over the long haul: According to recently released data from Standard & Poor’s, over the five years ending June 2008, the S&P 500 outperformed 68.6% of actively managed large cap funds; the S&P MidCap 400 […]

History Rhymes — But Do We Learn from It?

Robert F. Bruner, dean of the University of Virginia’s Graduate School of Business and author of The Panic of 1907: Lessons Learned from the Market’s Perfect Storm, writes on that the current financial crisis shares a number of attributes with past economic and market crises. But, he asks, “does the recurrence of crises actually […]

Zweig: Joe Investor’s Time Is Now

Wall Street Journal columnist Jason Zweig makes the current case for the individual investor, and highlights the vast array of asset classes that are presenting very attractive values. While stocks are cheap, other areas such as corporate and municipal bonds, emerging markets, TIPS, real estate and closed-end funds are also so beaten up that opportunities […]

Shiller P/E

Fortune’s Shawn Tully recently looked at the Shiller P/E model (developed by Yale University professor Robert Shiller), which calculates the P/E ratio of the market using ten years worth of earnings (vs. just the earnings of the last 12 months). Currently, the market P/E based on the Shiller model is around 15, which is lower […]

Is it Really that Different This Time?

Validea Newsleter – Nov. 14, 2008. The economic news is still bad, with unemployment up, retail sales down, and manufacturing activity very weak. Still, despite all the negativity, things haven’t yet gotten as bad as they were during past major downturns, such as 1973-74 and 1982-83. On the bright side, the LIBOR has been dropping, […]

Winters, Arnott & Kessler Share Ideas

Three well respected investment minds – David Winters of the Wintergreen Fund, Rob Arnott of Research Affiliates & Robert Kessler of The Kessler Companies – share their outlooks and thoughts on Consuelo Mack’s WealthTrack. Winters thinks we’re seeing the most attractive values of his lifetime, while Arnott says stocks look the cheapest they’ve been in […]

Buffett Adds to ConocoPhillips Holdings

Berkshire Hathaway’s latest quarterly filing reveals that Buffett has added to his stake in oil producer ConocoPhillips and bought shares of the manufacturer Eaton Corp. He reduced his holdings in Bank of America Corp. Berkshire is now ConocoPhillips largest shareholder. According to a 2007 academic study by Gerald Martin of American University and John Puthenpurackal […]

Siegel: Stocks Are “Dirt Cheap” Right Now

In an interview with Advisor Perspectives, Siegel says he “may be the lone optimist in this market.” The noted investment author and commentator argues that the current market P/E is a mere 10.7 and that investors could see stocks return 20% over the next 12 months, although he sees a very difficult fourth quarter and […]

Are Investors Suffering from “Irrational Pessimism”?

Marty Whitman, who’s been in the investment management business for 50 years and manages the Third Avenue Value fund, tells The Wall Street Journal that fear — not fundamentals — is driving this market. Whitman sees fantastic opportunities in high-yield bonds and in stocks of companies with strong balance sheets that don’t require access to […]