BlackRock’s Doll: S&P Earnings Estimates Too Low; Market Bottoming Process Ending

BlackRock Vice Chairman Bob Doll tells CNBC that, while the economy isn’t good, “some [analysts] have gone too far to the negative side,” and says that those analysts who have estimated $40 in per-share S&P 500 earnings for 2009 “are going to have to raise their numbers.” “Two months ago, it looked like a black hole,” Doll said. “Now, we have a much more balanced picture.”

Wharton Prof Duel: Siegel vs. Stambaugh

Several weeks back we highlighted a new study that found stocks are actually more risky in the long run than they are in the short run. Today in an interview posted on the University of Pennsylvania’s Knowledge@Wharton web site, two Wharton School professors — Robert Stambaugh, one of that study’s co-authors, and Jeremy Siegel — talk about many of the issues the study raises for stock investors, as well as the current market conditions. Among the particularly interesting parts of the interview: Siegel says that bonds and other asset classes might get more risky over the long run, and Stambaugh […]

Yardeni’s 12 Reasons for Optimism

Yes, the news this morning is filled with swine flu and a bigger-than-expected first-quarter GDP drop, but Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research — who has a pretty good track record of economic forecasting, including his solid calls on the last recession recovery in 2003 — is offering several reasons for economic optimism. (A tip of the cap to The Wall Street Journal’s David Wessel for highlighting this.) In an email to clients, Yardeni cited a dozen such reasons. A few of the highlights: In the U.S., consumer confidence rebounded during April. The 4/28 Financial Times reported that the high yield […]

The Great Depression “25-Year Recovery” Myth

If you’re worried about stocks taking a period of many, many years to recover following the recent market plunge, Mark Hulbert offers some insightful — and encouraging — news in The New York Times. While many have cited the fact that the Dow Jones Industrial Average took 25 years to get back to its pre-Great-Depression highs as reason to worry that the coming market recovery could take a upwards of 10 or even 20 years, Hulbert says the 25-year Depression recovery figure is misleading for a number of reasons. In reality, he says, it took only four-and-a-half years after the […]

Arnott: Value Stocks Priced at or below Depression Levels

Researcher and money manager Rob Arnott has made a lot of headlines lately with his focus on the bond market, but in yesterday’s Financial Times he keyed in on another asset class — and it’s one that he says is extremely cheap right now: deep value stocks. “Most investors,” writes Arnott, “do not yet realise that today’s spread between growth and value, on most measures, is nearly as wide as it was at the peak of the tech bubble. But this time it is the value stocks that are the extreme outliers.” In the tech bubble, he says, typical growth […]