In an interview with Nightly Business Report, Vanguard founder John Bogle says he expects stocks to return an average of about 8% per year for the next decade, and adds that U.S. stocks may be a bit undervalued, with international markets a bit overdone. Bogle tells Susie Gharib that he doesn’t do one-year market forecasts because the market is too unpredictable in the short term. “But I do in my new book do an outlook for the decade,” he says. “And I believe that stocks will return something like 7 to 9 percent during the coming decade, because the dividend […]
In his latest Forbes column, Ken Fisher says that he thinks stocks will continue to produce above average returns in 2010, though the gains won’t be as great as they’ve been in 2009. Fisher says the huge ’09 rebound “was a textbook case of how markets are supposed to react to big bear markets and recessions”, with a V-type recovery occurring. “I’m betting 2010 will work out the way markets usually do in the second year after a big bear market,” he says, “with returns not as high as 2009’s but well above average.”
Lakshman Achuthan, managing director of the Economic Cycle Research Institute, says the U.S. economy will not enter a “new normal” of slow, anemic growth, but also says we’re headed for a period of more frequent recessions and “chronically high” jobless rates. Achuthan, whose group has a strong track record of forecasting economic movements, also tells Bloomberg that the near-term outlook for the economy is good, with no “double-dip” recession being imminent. And, he talks about the impact that more frequent recessions will have on buy-and-hold investors.
Jeremy Siegel, the Wharton professor and Stocks for the Long Run author, thinks stocks remain undervalued, and says he expects US corporations to be producing record earnings by 2011 or 2012. In an interview with Advisor Perspectives, Siegel says he thinks fair value for the S&P 500 is 1300-1350, if current interest rates persist. He thinks rates will rise, however, so he puts fair value closer to 1250 for the index, which started the day at about 1129. And, Siegel says those interest rates will rise sooner than many think. He expects the Federal Reserve to up rates in the […]
Housing data has been improving in recent months, but Professors Robert Shiller and Karl Case (creators of the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices) say several potential problems are on the horizon for the housing market. Shiller and Case tell Bloomberg that looming resets to option ARM mortgages, a “shadow inventory” of homes that are currently owned but will soon be on the market, and a lessened stigma about defaulting on a mortgage are all issues that could have a big impact on the housing market going forward.