Blackrock’s Bob Doll says a number of factors are pointing toward stocks grinding higher. In an interview with CNBC, Doll says one of those factors involves Federal Reserve policy. He thinks the probability of the Fed engaging in more quantitative easing has risen recently, and that is good news for the stock market in the short term. “I think in the near term that’s got to be viewed as positive for equities,” he said. “We know what [quantitative easing] has done to the dollar. We know what it’s done to the price of gold, it’s likely positive for risk assets […]
In his latest article for Forbes.com, Validea CEO John Reese says the high levels of fear in the market are creating a variety of opportunities around the globe for disciplined value investors. “A double-dip recession, tax hikes, a U.S. budget crisis, a European debt contagion — these are just a few of the fears now dogging investors, many of whom are still reeling from the 2008 financial crisis and market crash,” writes Reese. “But for good value investors — strategists like Warren Buffett, Benjamin Graham, and other greats upon whom I base my Guru Strategies — times of fear are […]
While the National Bureau of Economic Research recently declared that the so-called Great Recession ended in June of 2009, John Hussman says that doesn’t mean the economic pain is over. In his latest market commentary for Hussman Funds, Hussman says that data cited by NBER itself shows that we may already be headed back into another recession. “If we had good reason to expect positive economic tailwinds, we would be less concerned about the present deterioration” in economic indicators, Hussman says. “Unfortunately, my impression is that the bulk of the growth that we did observe coming off of the June […]
PIMCO’s Bill Gross is standing by his contention that we’re in a “New Normal” for the economy and stock market, saying that investors shouldn’t expect double-digit returns from a stock/bond portfolio going forward. Gross tells CNBC that investors should look outside the U.S. for the best opportunities, keying on countries that have non-dollar currencies and higher growth prospects.
Hedge fund guru John Paulson is continuing to bet on big-time inflation hitting the U.S., and as a result is keying on equities, gold, and real estate. Forbes’ Robert Lenzner reports that Paulson, speaking at the University Club in New York, said double-digit inflation will hit by 2012, pounding the bond market and strengthening equities. Among the stocks he likes: Johnson & Johnson, Citigroup, and Coca-Cola. Paulson also sounded very bullish on housing. “If you don’t own a home buy one,” he said. “If you own one home, buy another one, and if you own two homes buy a third […]
While many have been talking about — and fearing — a “New Normal” of slower growth for the U.S. economy and stock market, author and top money manager Kenneth Fisher says the notion is “idiotic”. Speaking at the Forbes Global CEO Conference in Sydney, Fisher said things aren’t so different this time around. “We are chimpanzees with no memory,” he said, according to Bloomberg. “The next 10 years are going to be just as good as the 1990s. The problems in this current environment we think are so different, and so new and so unique. It’s the same stupid old […]
David Tepper, president & founder of Appaloosa Management, has produced exceptional long-term returns as a hedge fund manager. In this interview with CNBC, he talks about why he got bullish on banks in early 2009 — with great success — and why Federal Reserve policy and other factors have him adding to his stock portfolios.
Top value manager David Winters says he sees a bright future for the world, and sees “lots of undervalued securities” right now. He also says a key, overlooked economic indicator — rail car loadings — is giving bullish signals, and discusses some stocks he’s keen on.
Charles Schwab Chief Investment Strategist Liz Ann Sonders says she thinks it’s unlikely the U.S. will suffer a double-dip recession, and says the Federal Reserve’s talk of continued stimulative policy may be hampering the recovery. “While slowing, the economic engine continues to move forward,” Sonders says in her latest market commentary, written with Schwab’s Brad Sorensen and Michelle Gibley. “We believe this forward momentum will continue and, in fact, accelerate again, while we remain relatively optimistic on the market’s prospects. While we don’t discount the possibility of a return to recession that would likely be a tough blow to the […]
Unemployment remains high, economic growth is slowing, taxes may soon rise, and consumer confidence is near historic lows. But while investors are fleeing stocks in favor of bonds amid the tough economic times, history shows they shouldn’t, according to research from James O’Shaughnessy’s firm. In its latest market commentary (“The Economy and the Stock Market”), written by Patrick O’Shaughnessy, James’ son, O’Shaughnessy’s firm looks at how stocks have fared throughout history when various economic indicators have been at or around current levels. Their conclusion: “GDP growth, unemployment, taxes, and consumer sentiment all seem like they should matter for your portfolio,” […]
Each week, we take a look at which stocks John Reese’s Validea.com Guru Strategy computer models have newfound interest in, and which they have soured on. Here’s a look at some of the stocks John’s strategies have upgraded or downgraded today. Among the big-name movers: AT&T and Research in Motion.
Kenneth Fisher says investors continue to be fixated on the problems of the recent past, which is preventing them from seeing opportunities in the present. “Generally, one thing I’ve learned is that when people are adequately fixated on the negative, pessimistic, skeptic and snarky; to be in such a mode as to be chewing the cud, ruminating, looking for problems everywhere, they’re not likely to find them because, if they were there, they already would have found them,” Fisher tells Forbes, citing fears of a European bank crisis and fears of slow U.S. growth as two examples of fears currently […]
John D. Spears’ Tweedy Browne Global Value fund is in the top 1% of funds in its class based on 15-year returns, according to Morningstar, and Barron’s recently offered a look into just how Spears manages this top-performing fund. According to Barron’s, Spears and his partners at Tweedy Browne “try to find what [Benjamin] Graham called ‘intrinsic value,’ by determining a company’s acquisition value, or by estimating the collateral value of its assets and/or cash flow.” Spears, Barron’s says, uses such metrics as low price-to-book ratios, low price-to-earnings ratios, low price-to-cash-flow ratios, and above-average dividend yields in analyzing stocks. He […]
In his latest article for Canada’s Globe and Mail, Validea CEO John Reese says that the current U.S. recovery — while much-maligned in the media — isn’t all that different from some other recoveries in U.S. history. “Recoveries are never smooth and easy,” Reese writes, adding that bull markets aren’t smooth and easy either. After researching a number of past recoveries and bull markets, he says “the current U.S. turnaround — with all its shortcomings — is in a lot of ways a pretty normal one.” Among the factors Reese examines when comparing the current recovery to past recoveries are […]
While many investors and commentators have raised fears of deflation recently, Rob Arnott of PIMCO and Research Affiliates still has his eye on potential inflation — and the opportunities it could present for investors. Arnott tells the Los Angeles Times that concerns about deflation could actually end up resulting in inflation. He thinks deflation fears will soon mushroom, the Times reports, and as federal stimulus spending winds down he sees a “pretty good likelihood of another recession” in 2011. “But another downturn also could force the government to pull out all the stops (again) to try to revive growth,” the […]