Wells Capital Management Chief Investment Strategist James Paulsen says corporate leaders are now feeling more confident in the economy, and he expects they’ll be acting more aggressively in putting cash to work. Paulsen tells CNBC that he thinks the biggest accelerant of growth will now be a “slow but steady rise in both consumer and business confidence, leading to more aggressive economic behavior”.
In an article in London’s Telegraph, Kenneth Fisher offers an interesting take on large-cap stocks. “I think the time of small-cap dominance is over,” Fisher said. “There will be a switch to large caps — although it won’t be a fast one, more like a dimmer switch.” Large-cap stocks have underperformed smaller stocks for some time. But Fisher looks at “large cap” in a different context than most people, who view large caps as stocks with market capitalizations greater than $10 billion or so. “If you invested in a big cap, nine years out of 10 they will beat the […]
An economist who foresaw the Asian crisis back of 1998, the Internet bubble of the early 2000s, and the recent housing bubble has a very upbeat view on the U.S. economy for 2011. Author and University of Chicago Professor Emeritus Robert Z. Aliber is predicting that the U.S. economy will grow between 4.5% and 5% this year; the stock stock market will gain 15%; unemployment will fall into the 7% range; and threats like state and municipal debt crises and remaining toxic debt from the housing crisis will be dealt with, according to MarketWatch’s Al Lewis. “We will have restored […]
In his year-end letter, Ron Muhlenkamp says that, after being cautious for most of 2010, he gained confidence in the U.S. economy toward the end of the year and is now “near fully invested”. In the U.S., Muhlenkamp says the extension of the Bush-era tax cuts should help increase employment, but he also says state and municipal budget strains are a concern. Abroad, he says the European debt crisis isn’t over, and that China is the “swing member” of the international community; he says China faces the tricky task of removing the extensive stimulus it provided after the financial crisis. […]
Yale economist Robert Shiller says he thinks U.S. and European stocks are overvalued. “I would say the market is overpriced based on fundamentals,” Shiller tells CNBC. “The Dow [reaching] 12,000 doesn’t stimulate me to excitement.” Shiller also says the housing market is “inherently psychological”, and says he thinks we may see a renewed downtrend in home prices.