The Wisdom of Lynch & Templeton

Here’s an oldie but a very, very goodie — a Louis Rukeyser interview with Peter Lynch and the late John Templeton. The exact date of the video (posted on YouTube by ValueInvestingPro) isn’t given, but the references to the troubles in Kuwait and Lynch’s retirement make it clear the interview took place in the latter part of 1990 or the beginning of 1991. Lynch and Templeton cover a variety of topics — from the efficient market hypothesis, to how to deal with market fluctuations and tough times, to the need to take a long-term perspective, to how to evaluate a […]

Forester Says We’ve Seen the Bottom

Tom Forester, whose Forester Value was the only stock mutual fund to end 2008 in the black, says he believes the market has bottomed, but that stocks are now in a trading range. “I do think it has bottomed,” Forester tells the Nightly Business Report. “But I also think we’re in a trading range. We could go up 20 or down 20 from here. … I think if you’re a longer-term holder, in the three- to five-year range, at these valuations, I think you’ll do quite well in the market. One of the kickers you get from here is you […]

The Little-Known Shipping Metric

Time magazine recently had a piece on “the least known key economic indicator” — the Baltic Dry Index. The BDI, which is a measure of worldwide shipping rates, has “registered some eye-popping gains over the past month,” Time’s Jeff Israely writes. “The London-based index registered its 23rd straight daily gain on Wednesday, closing at 4,291, its highest mark since September and the longest streak of gains since July 2006.” Daily rates for large “Capesize” ships that typically carry iron ore were at $93,197 last week, Israely notes; five months ago, they were a small fraction of that, sitting just above […]

Buffett, Berkshire on Bond Binge

Back in October, Warren Buffett told the world that he was buying American equities in his personal (non-Berkshire Hathaway) account, which previously had been filled with only U.S. government bonds. But for Berkshire, on the other hand, it seems Buffett’s been focused elsewhere: municipal bonds. According to Bloomberg News, Berkshire has doubled its stake in municipal bonds over a recent nine-month period, upping the amount of local government debt it owned to just over  $4 billion at the end of the first quarter compared to the slightly more than $2 billion it held at the end of June 2008. Berkshire […]

Fisher on the Dem Bounce

In his latest Forbes column, Kenneth Fisher offers one interesting reason why he thinks stocks are a good bet to end the year in positive territory. According to Fisher, since 1926, the market has posted double-digit gains in the first year of a new Democratic president’s tenure five out of six times. Conversely, the market has been negative in the first year of a Republican president’s tenure five of six times. It may sound like simple trivia, but Fisher says there’s reason behind it: “The pattern is not so strange when you think about what the market is and is […]

Rodriguez Bullish on Energy Stocks — Not So Bullish on Economy

Bob Rodriguez of First Pacific Advisors sees continued tough times for the economy, but that doesn’t mean he’s staying on the sidelines. In an interview with Morningstar, Rodriguez discusses his firm’s big recent push into energy stocks. A number of factors — very low valuations, the fact that the world is consuming three times as much oil as it is finding, and the huge amounts of cash energy firms were able to generate in the last “up” cycle — have caused Rodriguez to deploy more capital into the market than at any time in the last 25 years, he says, […]

Sonders Envisions the Recovery, Warns about Emotional Investing

In the latest installment of Forbes’ Intelligent Investing, Charles Schwab Chief Investment Strategist Liz Ann Sonders talks about the state of the credit markets and economy, the impact of emotion on investors, and the futility of trying to pick the tops and bottoms of markets. “I do think what we’re going to see, and we may be starting to see it right now, is that production pop,” Sonders said of the economy. “That coiled spring, that may, it’s going to give probably, at least for a time, a V-shaped impression. And may pull some people who have been otherwise, rightly, […]

Small-Cap Value to Lead During Recovery? A Few To Watch

While it is of course no guarantee, a number of top economists and strategists are now predicting that the U.S. will begin to see economic growth in the latter part of this year. That begs the question: Which types of stocks perform better coming out of recessions? In a new research report, Russell Investments examines that issue and finds that, if history is a guide, you can expect small-cap value stocks to lead the way out of the current recession. According to the report, Russell found that on average, value stocks underperform growth stocks during periods of economic contraction. That […]

Kass Sees Big Opportunities in Big Banks, “Bumpy Road” for Broader Market

Back in March, we highlighted the bottom call and bullish turn made by TheStreet.com columnist, money manager, and longtime bear Doug Kass. Today, Kass tells Yahoo! TechTicker that he thinks many big bank stocks could double or triple over the next few years, though he expects a bumpy road ahead for the broader market. The key for banks, Kass says, is that the spread on the interest rates at which they lend out money and at which they borrow money — the “lifeblood” of bank earnings — is historically high. That, and the support these banks have gotten from the […]

“Snowball” Author: Buffett’s Optimistic — But Not That Optimistic

Warren Buffett has made a number of headlines in recent months for his optimistic take on the U.S. stock market and economy. But Alice Schroeder, author of The Snowball: Warren Buffett and the Business of Life and a senior adviser to Morgan Stanley, says that while Buffett is indeed bullish, he’s not as bullish as those headlines may seem. “I believe Buffett’s optimism about the country is genuine,” Schroeder writes today on Bloomberg.com. “It’s a big-picture sort of optimism, though. Economists who are debating whether there will be a recovery in 2010 are living in a different world than Buffett, […]

Newsletter with Best 3-Decade Track Record Goes All-In

The top-performing market-timing newsletter of the past three decades has turned “aggressively bullish”, Mark Hulbert writes on MarketWatch.com. The Chartist, edited by Dan Sullivan, has the best track record of any of the market-timing letters Hulbert has followed since his Hulbert Financial Digest began tracking newsletter performance nearly 30 years ago. “In a communication to subscribers Monday evening, Sullivan recommended that subscribers move from being only partially invested in equities to being fully invested,” Hulbert writes. “And in his most aggressive model portfolio, he actually moved to being 125% invested — in other words, to be 25% on margin.”

Siegel “Virtually Sure” It Won’t Be Long Before Market Yields Rewards

Wharton professor and author Jeremy Siegel has stood by his “stocks for the long run” philosophy during the recent bear market. Yesterday on NPR radio, he went even further, saying that he is “virtually sure” that it won’t be a long time before stocks start rewarding investors. “Looking forward, for everything that I think, it’s certainly going to be much better for investors,” Siegel said. “I’m virtually sure that it’s not going to be a long wait. And the reason is we’re no longer at high points in the market.”

Gabelli, Grantham, Gross & Others Weigh In

A number of top investment strategists offered their opinions about the market and the economy at the recent Morningstar Investor Conference in Chicago, including value fund star (and Benjamin Graham disciple) Mario Gabelli. Gabelli, whose ABC fund posted its first negative returns in 14 years last year — when it dropped just 2% — sees opportunities in the market for long-term investors. “Basically we are very simple: What will the stock market do over the next ten years?” he told MarketWatch.com. His firm thinks gross world profit will grow at about 3% going forward, with inflation of 3%. Margins will […]

Bogle on Valuations, the Economy, and Where to Invest Now

In a recent interview with MarketWatch, John Bogle says he thinks the market “probably has it about right” in terms of current valuations, but adds that investors should expect slower growth than they’ve grown accustomed to when the economy does turn around. “I would guess the market probably has it about right,” Bogle said. “I would guess that we have seen the low for the year and maybe the low for this cycle. … I’m no expert, but as far as I can tell the economy is leveling off right now and may have a little further to go down, […]

How You Can Be Like Buffett

In every other issue of my investment newsletter, The Validea Hot List, I look in detail at one of the computerized guru models I run on Validea.com. In this week’s issue, I outlined my Patient Investor strategy, inspired by the approach that Warren Buffett has used to become one of history’s greatest investors. Below you will find an excerpt from the newsletter along with a handful of top-scoring stock ideas based on the Buffett investment strategy. Taken from the May 29, 2009 issue of The Validea Hot List Guru Spotlight: Warren Buffett With his humble mid-west beginnings, plainspoken wisdom and […]