Byron Wien’s Outlook on the Markets, the Economy, the Election and More

With so many forces at work in the markets and the global economy, there is a lot of uncertainty simmering on many levels. In a Barron’s article from earlier this month, Blackstone strategist Byron Wien offers some insight on the causes and potential outcomes: Corporate operating margins have been compressed due to limited volume growth and rising wages. Wien expects this to continue into next year. He doesn’t see a severe sell-off or bear market in the offing. “The yield curve is not inverted and investor sentiment is cautious rather than euphoric, so we have yet to see two conditions […]

Wall Street Strategists Lukewarm on the Market

Although stocks have nearly recovered from the post-Brexit upset, there is still worry about the political and economic uncertainty that looms in its wake. Earlier this month, Steve Russolillo of The Wall Street Journal wrote that eighteen equity strategists tracked by the research firm Birinyi Associates anticipate the S&P 500 (which gained 2.7% in the first half of 2016) will end the year at around 2150 (down from their previous forecast of 2200). The index closed Friday at 2130. Seven of the group have lowered their year-end predictions since January, although many held steady. After the Brexit vote, David Bianco […]

Jeremy Grantham’s Outlook for 2016 and Beyond

Jeremy Grantham authored a piece for Barron’s recently in which he argues that “the positive effects of low resource prices are underestimated,” maintains that we are not in a bubble and thus “a major market break [is] unlikely” to occur yet,  and suggests that the longer-term forecast is “rather depressing.” Looking back at 2015, Grantham highlights “the big positive” of Federal Reserve support and “the big negative” of “China slowing down,” as well as “the plunging price of oil,” and the decline in profit margins. Looking at 2016, he notes that “uncertainties are above average,” but suggests growth of “2.5% […]

No Time to be a “Hero” says DoubleLine’s Gundlach

Advisor Perspectives reports on a recent market outlook presentation by Jeffrey Gundlach, who it describes as a “prescient and accurate forecaster.” Gundlach said: “Now is not the time to be a hero,” reasoning, “this is a market where you don’t make a lot of money. You try to protect your capital and then play another day.” He said “the centerpiece of the problem that is facing the markets today” is that large developed economies will not grow fast enough. Gundlach commented on more specific topics as well. He highlighted a recession in the manufacturing sector globally as well as weakening […]

The Year Ahead: “We Have No Idea,” Says Recent Analysis

A recent report on the market year ahead began, “We have no idea.” Authored by Paul Hickey, Justin Walters, and George Pearkes, the report published by Bespoke Investment Group describes trying to “look out one year from now and tell people what the market will or will not do” as “a fool’s errand”. The New York Times summarizes: “what is likely, if not absolutely certain, is that the Wall Street consensus will be wrong.” The current consensus appears to be that the market will rise 7%, but “consensus predictions were inaccurate in every single year” since 2000. Further, “not once […]