More so than politics, the current economic landscape could pose problems for the stock market, writes Bob Doll in a recent Barron’s article. Nuveen Asset Management’s chief investment strategist contends that, while investors are focused on how political uncertainty could affect equities, “near-term economic disappointment is a bigger issue.” Nevertheless, Doll writes, Nuveen remains constructive toward equities and other risk assets over the medium- and long-term.” He shares the following insights: Consumer confidence is high. In March, the Consumer Confidence Index hit its highest level in 17 years, and Doll expects this to boost consumption going forward. Tax reform represents […]
Bob Doll says that current market optimism may be “overdone and markets could be vulnerable to disappointment” in an article he wrote for Barron’s earlier this month. Still, Nuveen’s chief investment strategist is maintaining a pro-growth stance and a “constructive view toward equities.” In the article, Doll outlines what his firm sees as five possible risk areas for stocks: U.S. Politics: Investors, writes Doll, may lose what has been steadfast patience and optimism if “specifics about issues such as tax policy and health care reform are not forthcoming.” European Politics: While the European risk profile has calmed a bit due […]
Nuveen Asset Management’s Bob Doll shared his ten predictions for the coming year in Business Wire: Predictions for 2017 U.S. and global economic growth improves modestly and dollar strengthens (and reaches parity with the Euro); Unemployment drops to its lowest level in 17 years, and wages increase at the fastest pace since the Great Recession; Treasury yields move higher (for a third consecutive year) for the first time in 26 years, and Fed raises rates twice; Stocks hit their 2017 highs in the first half of the year as earnings rise but price/earnings multiples fall; For the first time in […]
As the markets diverge in the coming year, investment selectivity will become more important, writes Nuveen’s top strategist in a recent Barron’s article. He says that the post-election shift in financial markets led to his firm’s tweaking of predictions for 2017, and compares the original forecasts with actual trends: Correct: US real and nominal GDP remain below 3% and 5%, respectively, for an unprecedented 10th year in a row; US Treasury rates rise for a second year, but high-yield spreads fall; Standard & Poor’s 500 earnings make limited headway as consumer spending advances are partially offset by oil, the dollar and wage […]
In this week’s Barron’s, Nuveen Asset Management’s chief investment strategist shared his list of the primary implications for investors of the Trump victory: Equity markets may remain generally positive toward Trump’s victory, for now. The rally in risk assets and the sell-off in Treasuries likely reflects that markets had priced in the probability of divided government. We expect further upward pressure on bond yields. Since its low point over the summer, the increase in the 10-year Treasury yield reflects a combination of rising inflation expectations, a possible increase in debt issuance and expectations of a more hawkish Federal Reserve. The […]
The S&P 500 inched up another 1.2% last week and, according to a Barron’s article by Bob Doll of Nuveen Asset Management, while equities are expensive on a historical basis they are still an attractive alternative to bonds and cash. Doll outlines his take on current market conditions: The Fed will probably raise rates in December, provided “economic growth remains on track and the global financial system does not endure an additional shock.” U.S. inflation is “slowly creeping higher.” Economic growth in 2017 may resemble that of 2016, but he predicts that growth next year could be even slower. U.S. […]
Making predictions can be pretty dicey business in general, but particularly when it comes to matters of the economy. A recent Investment News article recapped an interview with 36-year veteran portfolio manager Bob Doll (chief equity strategist at Nuveen Asset Management) that focused on his predictions for the year and his general economic outlook. While Doll hit the mark with his forecast on stocks beating bonds, he admits to making the wrong call on sector performance. “We had a rally in energy and materials off the low, and the financials have yet again disappointed. I thought we had bottomed and […]
In a recent Barron’s article, Nuveen Asset Management’s Chief Equity Strategist Bob Doll says that, despite disappointing first quarter results and apparent earnings struggles, consumer spending will be a healthy tailwind for the economy as a whole. He offers contrasting views of the current market situation: Positive: Equity valuations don’t appear to be stretched; Earnings improvements should materialize in the coming quarters; The tumult in the oil market appears to be over; Investor sentiment may be overly bearish; Corporate tax reform prospects for next year appear strong. Negative: Improvements in the earnings outlook are probably necessary for equity […]
Bob Doll of Nuveen presents an optimistic picture of 2016, according to MarketWatch. Doll says, “My view is oil is going to stabilize at a low level, and we will see some of the consumer dividend get spent next year.” He continued: “So, the consumer’s going to be a bit better, oil’s going to be less of a headwind, so we’re going to be OK.” At the same time, Doll predicts that 2016 will be volatile. Yet, he maintains that corporate earnings, which could be challenged by a strong dollar, will likely be a key to the market’s overall success in 2016.
Bob Doll of Nuveen Asset Management says they “expect equities will outperform bonds over the next six to 12 months, although the ride is likely to be bumpy” in a recent Investment News piece. He describes bearish arguments as “overly negative,” noting that under current conditions “it would hardly be surprising to see equities and other risk assets lagging, but they are not.” He offers a more positive view: “The risk of a global recession appear low, and we think the world economy is more likely to accelerate rather than slow next year.”
Nuveen’s Bob Doll says this bull market and economic recovery has been the least believed of his career. But he says that has made for an excellent investment environment — and he doesn’t think we’re done.
A stronger dollar and falling oil prices tend to help the economy, but right now those two factors aren’t helping stocks, Nuveen’s Bob Doll says.
While many people are wondering whether the bull market is running out of steam, Jim Paulsen and some other top strategists think it has a ways to go.
Heading into 2014, Nuveen’s Bob Doll sees growth strengthening and a good year — though not as good as 2013 — for stocks. Doll writes for Barrons that he expects the US economy to grow at a 3% clip in 2014, with growth strengthening thanks to a “litany of hopeful signs includes the housing recovery, falling oil prices, acceptable job growth, easing lending standards, low inflation, all-time high net worth, rising capital expenditures, less fiscal drag, and improving non-U.S. growth.” He thinks it’s likely that stock market gains will rely on earnings growth after the multiple expansion we’ve seen in […]
Nuveen Asset Management’s Bob Doll thinks the market’s next big move will be higher, but says it won’t happen until earnings and revenue growth pick up. “If global growths improves, the U.S. will participate, (but) we won’t lead the way,” Doll tells Yahoo! Finance’s Breakout, saying that he expects improvement in U.S. earnings and data, though not right away. He says that manufacturing data has been picking up both in the U.S. and abroad, however, making industrial stocks attractive. “They’re all ticking up, not just in the U.S., but around the world,” Doll says, referring to global purchasing manager surveys. He thinks that […]