Fundamentally Strong Picks for the Contrarian Investor

The Citigroup Economic Surprise Index, which measures how current economic data is comparing to expectations, is on the rise along with investor confidence regarding the expanding economy, writes Validea CEO John Reese in a recent article for Forbes. Historically, however, markets perform best not during times of economic expansion, but rather when the economy is improving despite lower expectations, writes Reese. When things are going relatively well, he argues, “forecasters tend to extrapolate forward using recent trends and assume the good news will continue.” Reese outlines the contrarian investment approach of guru David Dreman, who argues that investors can beat […]

Contrarian Picks Based on David Dreman’s Philosophy

The famous investor David Dreman, who Kiplinger once referred to as the “consummate contrarian”, follows a strategy which capitalizes on the emotional, knee-jerk reactions that make unpopular stocks underpriced, writes Validea CEO John Reese in TheStreet. This is no coincidence, given Dreman’s knowledge and experience in the area of behavioral finance. Dreman identifies such undervalued companies, Reese explains, by comparing their share prices to four different financial variables that gauge the strength of the underlying business: earnings, cash flow, book value and dividend yield. Reese describes the findings of studies conducted by Dreman from 1970 to 1996 and elaborates on […]

Murky Outlook Suggests Selecting Value Stocks Says Dreman

David Dreman of Dreman Value Management says, “the outlook for the market couldn’t be murkier” in a Forbes column. He notes that corporate revenues and profits for the S&P 500 are slightly down from 2014 to 2015, but that the P/E ratio for the S&P 500 is above its long-term average. Overall, he predicts “that 2016 will be a year without significant movement up or down.” Further, he recommends value stocks, particularly in cyclical, energy companies, and mining outfits. Along with noting their cheap price and highlighting the importance of investing in solid companies, he observes that it is possible […]

Dreman: It's Time To Buy Banks

Contrarian guru David Dreman says that, while he sees a couple of big economic risks for the US right now, he’s still bullish on the stock market. Why? Because there just aren’t other attractive options. In his latest Forbes column, Dreman says that the lack of wage growth for the middle and working classes and misguided Federal Reserve policies are big concerns. But there’s nowhere else to turn for decent returns, he says. “The chance of a 5% to 10% return on equity investments sure beats 3% on 30-year Treasurys,” he writes. “Remember that inflation is the enemy of long […]

Dreman: It’s Time To Buy Banks

Contrarian guru David Dreman says that, while he sees a couple of big economic risks for the US right now, he’s still bullish on the stock market. Why? Because there just aren’t other attractive options. In his latest Forbes column, Dreman says that the lack of wage growth for the middle and working classes and misguided Federal Reserve policies are big concerns. But there’s nowhere else to turn for decent returns, he says. “The chance of a 5% to 10% return on equity investments sure beats 3% on 30-year Treasurys,” he writes. “Remember that inflation is the enemy of long […]

Great Pages: David Dreman On Resiliency

Can a single page of a book change your investment life? We believe it can. Periodically, we highlight some of the Great Pages that have had a great impact on our investment philosophy. Today, we look at a page in David Dreman’s classic “Contrarian Investment Strategies”, in which Dreman shows that the stock market is far more resilient than many give it credit for — which has tremendous implications for how to invest when crises occur.

Think Like a Contrarian with the Dreman Strategy

Every other issue of The Validea Hot List newsletter examines in detail one of John Reese’s computerized Guru Strategies. This latest issue looks at the David Dreman-inspired strategy, which has averaged 6.5% annualized returns  since its inception more than 10 years ago, beating the S&P 500. Below is an excerpt from today’s newsletter, along with several top-scoring stock ideas based on the Dreman-based investment strategy.

The Dreman Approach: A Contrarian Guide to Beating the Market

Every other issue of The Validea Hot List newsletter examines in detail one of John Reese’s computerized Guru Strategies. This latest issue looks at the David Dreman-inspired strategy, which has averaged annual returns of 7.2% since its July 2003 inception vs. 5.3% for the S&P 500. Below is an excerpt from the newsletter, along with several top-scoring stock ideas from the Dreman-based investment strategy. Taken from the August 16, 2013 issue of The Validea Hot List Guru Spotlight: David Dreman While all the gurus I follow have built their fame and fortunes using different investment approaches, there is at least one striking […]

Dreman: Stocks And Housing Are Places To Be

Contrarian guru David Dreman remains concerned about major inflation, and says investors should thus focus on stocks and the housing market. In a column for Forbes, Dreman says that economic improvements and the realization that higher interest rates will come as the economy improves have driven the stock market’s performance recently. “Currently a one-percentage-point rise in yield for a 30-year bond will reduce its price by 17%. A three-point increase in yield will knock its price down 41%,” he writes. “With financial crisis redux fears finally subsiding, investors are looking for places to increase their capital.” As for inflation, Dreman […]

The Dreman Approach: Thinking Contrarian to Beat the Market

Every other issue of The Validea Hot List newsletter examines in detail one of John Reese’s computerized Guru Strategies. This latest issue looks at the David Dreman-inspired strategy, which has averaged annual returns of 6.9% since its July 2003 inception vs. 4.0% for the S&P 500. Below is an excerpt from the newsletter, along with several top-scoring stock ideas from the Dreman-based investment strategy. Taken from the September 14, 2012 issue of The Validea Hot List Guru Spotlight: David Dreman While all the gurus I follow have built their fame and fortunes using different investment approaches, there is at least one striking […]

Contrarian Plays in the Oil Industry

In his RealMoney column, Validea CEO John Reese recently took a contrarian look at oil stocks. “Oil at the moment is on a slippery slope. Prices are at their lowest in months. In fact, they are dropping during the time of year they typically rise due to higher demand in the summer months,” Reese writes, citing several factors — Iraq re-entering the oil supply business, Libya ramping up production, a slowing global economy meaning lower demand, the continuing rise of alternative energy sources — as contributing to oil’s decline. Despite all that — or perhaps because of it — Reese […]