Yale economist Robert Shiller says the poor home sale figures in July came in an “anomalous” month. Shiller tells Bloomberg that the scheduled expiration of the government’s homebuyer tax credit program led many buyers to rush to get their purchases made by the June 30 deadline, meaning that a July dropoff shouldn’t be a big surprise. [youtube= http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NYuyxVaLbe4]
Yale economist and home price index co-creator Robert Shiller says he’s not sure where housing prices are headed, but he is worried about the broader economy. “I’m worried about a double-dip recession,” Shiller tells Reuters Insider, pointing to lingering problems with the economy, such as high long-term unemployment. “Something is not normal in this economy yet.” He adds that the probability of a double-dip is more than 50 percent. “I actually expect it,” he says.
Whitney Tilson, one of the few who saw the housing crash coming, says the housing market now stands “on a precipice”, and says he’s shorting homebuilders. Tilson says it’s unclear which way the housing market will tip. Affordability and mortgage rates are good right now, he says, but millions of people are underwater on their mortgages, which could lead to millions of potential foreclosures that would add huge amounts of inventory to the market. Regardless of which way the housing market tips, however, Tilson thinks homebuilders are a good short.
John Paulson, the hedge fund manager who made billions by calling the U.S. housing market plunge, now sees good times ahead for U.S. home prices and corporate profits. And he says the country is in the midst of a strong V-shaped economic recovery. According to CNBC, Paulson has told investors he expects housing prices to rise 3% to 5% in 2010 and another 8% to 12% in 2011. He says that homes are the most affordable they’ve been in 50 years, and that residential real estate is 60% more affordable than it was at the housing bubble’s peak. Paulson “also […]