Four Conditions Reminiscent of 1999

Rob Arnott, founder and chairman of Research Affiliates, says that the recent market environment is reminiscent of 1999, just before the tech bubble burst. Writing in Barron’s, Arnott argues that the following four “conditions parallel the extremes of the late 1990s:” “Falling inflation expectations,” which Arnott argues “snap back in reasonably short order.” He observes […]

4 Options to Beat Inflation in the Future

A recent piece in Forbes offers 4 suggestions for beating inflation. After noting that “the present 0% rate [of inflation] blends an upward march of 2% in the cost of services with a collapse in the price of oil,” the article observes that “if commodities rebound over several years, 4% inflation could surface.” To protect […]

PIMCO on Why Inflation Will Rear Its Head

Top fund manager Mihir Worah of PIMCO says not to be lulled into complacency by the low inflation we’ve seen in recent years. “We expect global inflation over the next three to five years — or even the next five to 10 years — to be higher than it has been over the last 20 […]

Einhorn Ups Bullish Bets, But Warns on Inflation

Hedge fund guru David Einhorn says he increased his bullish bets last month, but remains concerned about several issues, including the Federal Reserve’s low-interest rate policy. In a conference call with Greenlight Capital Re investors, Einhorn said that he increased his bullish positions thanks to better-than-expected corporate earnings results, Bloomberg reports. But, he added, “This […]

An Industry That Can Beat Back Inflation

In his latest column for, Validea CEO John Reese says inflation can be a big hindrance to good investing returns, and highlights one industry — pharmaceuticals — that has the power to beat back inflation. “If inflation were Wile E. Coyote then its Road Runner might well be the pharmaceutical industry,” Reese writes. “An […]

Are Stocks Really A Good Inflation Hedge?

Conventional wisdom is that stocks are a good hedge during inflationary periods. But some prominent financial researchers say the belief is off the mark. “When inflation has been moderate and stable…equities have performed relatively well,” Elroy Dimson, Paul Marsh, and Mike Staunton of the London Business School write in the 2012 Credit Suisse Global Investment […]

Deflation Could Help Us, Trahan Says

Highly-rated strategist Francois Trahan says that “deflation” is not a dirty word, and that the Federal Reserve could help the economy by allowing deflation to stem commodity price inflation that is “eroding people’s pockets”. Trahan says Fed members and other policymakers and economists are relying on economic principles that aren’t relevant right now. Three main […]

Arnott on Why the Valuation Picture Is Troubling

Interest rates and inflation have a much greater role in stock market valuations than you might think, and that means the stock market is on a “very dangerous” path, according to Rob Arnott. In an article for Morningstar, Arnott, of Research Affiliates and PIMCO, looks at the relationship between stock market valuation levels, interest rates, […]

Dreman: Look Past the Fear — Now’s the Time to Buy

While many investors have been fleeing stocks this summer, David Dreman says it’s a good time to be buying. “No, the market volatility and the seemingly never-ending Fed follies are certainly not what makes me positive on stocks today, but there are some good reasons to be bullish right now,” Dreman writes in his latest […]

Don’t Forget The Dividends — And Inflation

Investors may spend a lot of time fretting over whether their portfolios are going up or down. But, despite all of the advances in stock market data availability, many may not be getting an accurate picture of what their portfolios are really doing, says The Wall Street Journal’s Jason Zweig. According to Zweig, after last […]

Arnott: Look to Alternative Investments to Battle Inflation

Saying that a “3-D Hurricane” — debt, deficits, and demographics — is lingering on the horizon for the U.S., Rob Arnott is taking several steps to prepare his portfolio for an inflationary climate. Arnott tells that the U.S. budget deficit is worse than many think, if you include entitlement program costs like Medicare, Medicaid, […]