Dalio and Gundlach Say Emerging Markets are Risky

A host of concerns across the globe are raising red market flags for heavy-hitting investors such as Ray Dalio and Jeffrey Gundlach, says a recent Bloomberg article. Among the concerns; rising global turmoil and terrorist activity, valuations that “no longer compensate for potential flareups in North Korea and Venezuela,” and unpredictability on Wall Street. Emerging market shares are among the assets causing worry, given that they are yielding less that U.S. junk bonds for “only the third time in history,” the article says. According to the article, DoubleLine Capital CEO Gundlach’s believes traders should be “moving toward the exits” on […]

Gundlach: Bond Market Trouble Ahead

DoubleLine Capital CEO Jeffrey Gundlach believes the recent bond sell-off is a “sign of more pain to come for Treasury bulls,” according to a Bloomberg article from earlier this month. The rise in bond yields, the article says, coupled with a “Federal Reserve seemingly committed to raising interest rates a third time this year and speculation the European Central Bank could announce a tapering of bond purchases by the end of the year ” spells trouble for bonds going forward. The narrowing yield curve is also fueling liquidation, the article says, adding that the spread between five- and 30-year yields […]

Gundlach: Washington Establishment Trying to Stall Trump Agenda

DoubleLine Capital’s Jeffrey Gundlach thinks Washington is trying to get in the way of President Trump’s agenda by “running out the clock on his administration.” This according to a recent article in Bloomberg. The article outlines comments made by Gundlach during the televised Senate testimony by Attorney General Jeff Sessions in which he argues: The probability of a recession is low. The low volatility in the markets is probably winding down. This summer will see higher bond yields and lower stock prices. “If you’re a trader or a speculator,” Gundlach said, “I think you should be raising cash today,” adding, “If […]

Guru Feedback from Barron’s Mid-Year Roundtable

Most participants in this year’s Barron’s Roundtable think “the markets will soon get more interesting, and not in a pleasant way,” according to the publication’s recent summary, which includes excerpts from comments by market heavy-hitters such as Jeffrey Gundlach and Mario Gabelli. “After all,” the article says, “U.S. stocks are expensive, the economy is dullsville, and interest rates are about to rise.” Noting that the market’s gains have been unevenly distributed since the last Roundtable (held January 9th of this year), the article quotes Delphi Management founder Scott Black who says small- and mid-cap value stocks have been “left in […]

Gundlach Says Go Long Emerging Markets

Despite conventional wisdom that says rising U.S. rates will strengthen the dollar, Doubleline Capital chief investment officer Jeffrey Gundlach recommends going short on the S&P 500 and long on emerging market stocks, according to a recent Bloomberg article. At the Sohn Investment Conference earlier this month, Gundlach quipped, “What the heck, let’s have some fun.” In a CNBC interview, Gundlach explained he isn’t predicting that the S&P 500 will fall, but suggested that “this year’s bet is a relative value play,” the article says. He emphasized, however, that investors have to watch out for value traps. “I don’t like catching falling […]

Gundlach Predicts Continued Bond Rally

Doubleline’s chief executive officer doesn’t envision the yield on the 10-year to surpass 3% this year, says an article in yesterday’s Bloomberg. Jeffrey Gundlach believes a bond rally is likely to continue, with yields dropping to “below 2 ¼ at a minimum on the 10-year, maybe  a little bit lower than 2 and then it moves back up.” [The article notes that these bonds traded at 2.36% yesterday after reaching 2.6% on March 13th, their highest level since July 2014.] Last month, according to Bloomberg, Gundlach “correctly forecasted the start of a short-term rally in fixed income” triggered by the […]

Gundlach Says the Bond Bull Dies at 3%

Jeffrey Gundlach says that a yield of 3% on the ten-year Treasury bond would represent the end of the three-decade bond rally, according to a recent Bloomberg article. The DoubleLine CEO’s threshold differs from the one set by Janus’s Bill Gross, who believes that 2.6% would signal the end of the bull. Yields on 10-year Treasuries surged after the presidential election to as high as 2.59% (on December 15th, after an all-time low of 1.35% on July 8th). Today, the yield stands at 2.49%. Gundlach argues that Trump’s election and tax-reform policies have “fueled rising confidence among corporate executives, small-business […]

Corporate Debt and the Fallout from Rising Rates

The potential for and timing of an interest rate hike is the source of endless speculation and presents several layers of potential fallout for highly leveraged companies, according to Validea CEO John Reese. In a recent article for The Globe and Mail, he discusses the various factors at play. A wall of maturities: Rising rates could jolt the bond market. Jeffrey Gundlach of DoubleLine has said that “hundreds of billions” of corporate and high-yield bonds will be coming due around 2019 and, in the face of higher rates, “bond holders and the companies who have depended on low rates could […]

Gundlach and Others Offer Market Perspective

The upcoming presidential election is causing uneasiness, not just at the water cooler or the dinner table but also in the markets. Matt Schifrin, a managing editor of investing at Forbes, canvassed several of what he considers the “smartest market thinkers” for perspective and investment advice amidst the uncertainty. Jeffrey Gundlach, CEO, DoubleLine Capital says, “Trump is going to win, so that’s all that needs to be considered.” He believes that the “economic fearmongering” that will ensue could cause a global growth scare and a related risk-asset selloff. According to Gundlach, this will create buying opportunities in stocks and other […]

Hedge Fund Heavy Hitters Offer Range of Outlooks & Predictions

As the hedge fund industry continues to struggle to justify high fees and awful returns, some of this year’s speakers at the Sohn Investment Conference addressed how the largest funds are bracing for what’s ahead. The conference, an event held annually in New York and touted as “the premier investment event”, brings together Wall Street’s elite to exchange ideas and share insights (while raising money for pediatric cancer research). Forbe’s offered an overview of the conference with some takeaways from speakers including Stanley Druckenmiller, David Einhorn (Greenlight Capital), Zachary Schreiber (PointState Capital), Jeffrey Gundlach (Doubleline Capital), and Larry Robbins (Glenview […]

No Time to be a “Hero” says DoubleLine’s Gundlach

Advisor Perspectives reports on a recent market outlook presentation by Jeffrey Gundlach, who it describes as a “prescient and accurate forecaster.” Gundlach said: “Now is not the time to be a hero,” reasoning, “this is a market where you don’t make a lot of money. You try to protect your capital and then play another day.” He said “the centerpiece of the problem that is facing the markets today” is that large developed economies will not grow fast enough. Gundlach commented on more specific topics as well. He highlighted a recession in the manufacturing sector globally as well as weakening […]

Getting Harder to Make Money, Gundlach Says

  “It’s getting harder and harder to make money,” says Jeffrey Gundlach, founder of Doubleline Capital. “There are plenty of markets that are falling apart and freaking out,” he observes. He describes U.S. stocks as “whistling through the graveyard,” says the bond market is in trouble, and notes that emerging markets and commodities are particularly worrisome.  In this environment, Gundlach thinks it would be a mistake for the Fed to raise rates, as they are predicted to do. He said it is highly likely that a Fed rate increase would result in the fed having to lower rates again shortly […]

The “Art of Successful Investing” with Schafer, Gundlach, Ketterer (Part II)

 In the second part of our highlight of Barron’s “Art of Successful Investing” conference, we find a number of interesting investment themes, predictions and new ideas from top investing experts. Oscar Schafer, manager of the hedge fund O.S.S. Capital Management (which he has since announced will close), noted “we run a concentrated portfolio, with just 12 to 15 long positions and 15 to 20 short positions.” He identifies several lesser-known companies with significant potential for increasing valuation. For example, he points to ownership and management at Par Pacific Holdings as a reason to view the company optimistically. Jeffrey Gundlach, founder […]

Market Conditions Likely to Worsen, DoubleLine's Gundlach Predicts

Jeffrey Gundlach, CEO and CIO of DoubleLine Capital, says “There’s going to be another wave down in risk assets and it’s happening globally.” He cites a recent forecast downgrade by the International Monetary Fund as confirmation, and notes “[j]unk bonds are at a four-year low. Emerging markets are at a six-year low and commodities are at a multi-year low – same level as in 1995.” “The reason markets aren’t going lower is people are holding and hoping,” Gundlach says. “The market bottoms out when people are selling and sold out,” he continued. “I don’t think you’ve seen real selling in […]

Market Conditions Likely to Worsen, DoubleLine’s Gundlach Predicts

Jeffrey Gundlach, CEO and CIO of DoubleLine Capital, says “There’s going to be another wave down in risk assets and it’s happening globally.” He cites a recent forecast downgrade by the International Monetary Fund as confirmation, and notes “[j]unk bonds are at a four-year low. Emerging markets are at a six-year low and commodities are at a multi-year low – same level as in 1995.” “The reason markets aren’t going lower is people are holding and hoping,” Gundlach says. “The market bottoms out when people are selling and sold out,” he continued. “I don’t think you’ve seen real selling in […]