Jeremy Siegel is Bullish on Stocks

Wharton finance professor Jeremy Siegel remains bullish notwithstanding others’ concerns regarding “the market’s potential reliance on Trump’s tax- and regulation-cutting agenda,” according to a recent CNBC interview. “What has driven the market further up has been the great earnings season that we had in the first quarter,” says Siegel, adding, “It was the best guidance, forward guidance, that I had heard in many, many years.” This, along with global growth, greater stability in China, a lower dollar and a dovish Fed, Siegel is optimistic even in the face of a stalled Trump agenda. That said, he also feels confident that […]

Siegel Says Stay in Stocks

As the Dow continues to climb amidst conjecture by some around a possible market decline, Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel thinks investors shouldn’t avoid buying stocks, according to a CNBC article posted last week. The author of Stocks for the Long Run says that when investors “anticipate a significant drop—say, 20 percent—they typically do not consider the fact that the stock market may in fact rise between current levels and a large decline.” Even if they avoid buying, he says, they would be better off just sticking with current holdings. A second mistake investors could make, according to Siegel, is discounting […]

Siegel Still Believes in Stocks for the Long Run

Twenty-two years ago, Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel asserted in his book Stocks for the Long Run that equities were the best long-term investment and that buying and holding through volatility is the best approach for investors. This according to an article in last week’s Wall Street Journal. Siegel’s research, which covered more than two centuries, showed that stocks generated 6.7% in annual returns (inflation-adjusted) compared to 3.6% for U.S. government bonds. He expects the post-election rally to continue and, the article says, believes “stocks will respond well to the prospect of more-favorable corporate taxes and less regulation.” That’s not to […]

Siegel Says Rally Has Legs

The stock market boost fueled by the Trump victory will probably continue through December, says Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel in a recent interview with CNBC. “When you have all the small stocks, large stocks, even tech stocks—which we know have some challenges—joining with it, I don’t think this is something that ends tomorrow.” At the time of the interview, Siegel predicted that the Dow could reach 20,000 (it now stands at 19,300). Siegel says that Trump’s plan to reduce the corporate tax rate from 35 percent would bolster S&P company earnings significantly. “Even a reduction to 25 percent,” he says, […]

Is Shiller’s CAPE as Scary as it Seems?

In the 1990’s, economists Robert Shiller and John Campbell created a valuation metric called the “cyclically adjusted price-earnings” ratio, or CAPE. A Wall Street Journal article from earlier this month examines whether this metric might be sending a false signal that the market is overheated. The CAPE ratio values shares based on 10 years rather than one year of earnings which, the article explains, “smooths out periods like just prior to the housing bust, when unusually strong earnings made stocks look reasonably priced, and post-recession recoveries, when weak earnings make stocks look expensive.” The CAPE is now at 27, about […]