Hussman on High Plateaus and Poor Precedents

John P. Hussman of Hussman Funds examines permanently high plateaus in the market and their poor precedents in  a recent installment of Hussman Funds’ Weekly Market Comment. He predicts a market retreat over the completion of the current market cycle, and estimates small total returns  and possible negative real returns. However, Hussman has some good news. “The most favorable market return/risk profile we identify […]

Why Hussman Remains Bearish

Fund manager John Hussman has remained one of the staunchest bears in the stock market. And in a recent presentation (a tip of the hat to Business Insider for posting the presentation), he lays out his case for why the economy and market are not in as good shape as many believe. Hussman says the […]

Hussman: Don’t Believe the Valuation Numbers

Fund manager John Hussman remains quite bearish on the market, saying that stocks are showing signs of being in the “exhaustion” part of a bull market. “We presently have an overvalued, overbought (intermediate-term), overbullish market featuring a variety of syndromes that have typically appeared in the ‘exhaustion’ part of the market cycle: elevated valuation multiples […]

Hussman Talks “Extreme Strains”, and Momentum Investing

Fund manager John Hussman says he sees “extreme strains” ahead that many investors are underestimating. In an excerpt from his most recent market commentary posted on Seeking Alpha, Hussman talks about how he missed some 2009 and 2010 upside “as we worked to make our approach robust to Depression-era outcomes”. Hussman says he thinks that […]

Hussman: Recession Is Here

Fund manager John Hussman, whose funds have struggled in recent years but have good long-term track records, says he thinks the economy has entered recession. “I noted two weeks ago that the leading evidence pointed to a further weakening in employment, with an abrupt dropoff in industrial production and new orders,” Hussman writes in his […]

Hussman: Profit Margins Skewing Valuations

John Hussman, whose funds had strong long-term track records before getting hit hard the past few years, says those who contend stocks are cheap are way off base. “I can’t emphasize enough how badly standard P/E metrics are being distorted by record (but reliably cyclical) profit margins, which remain about 50-70% above historical norms,” Hussman […]

Hussman: It’s An Awful Time To Invest

Last week, we noted how The Wall Street Journal’s Jason Zweig says that we’re in the best time ever for individual investors, thanks largely to the way fees have declined and the ease of obtaining information has increased over the years. This week, however, John Hussman argues that, in terms of the specifics of the […]

Hussman: Short-Term Conditions “Hard-Negative”

Fund manager John Hussman says the current stock market condition “warrants unusual concern,” and is playing defense with his portfolio. “Based on a wide variety of evidence and its typical market implications over an ensemble of dozens of subsets of historical data, the expected return/risk profile of the stock market has shifted to hard-negative,” Hussman […]

Hussman: Recession Now “Virtually Certain”

Fund manager John Hussman says a new recession — and a Greek debt default — are now “virtually certain”. In his latest market commentary, Hussman says that the markets seem to be viewing the current situation as a replay of the 2010 correction, and are holding out hope that the Federal Reserve will launch another […]

Hussman: It’s Still a Secular Bear

Top fund manager John Hussman remains quite bearish on the broader market, saying that investors who try to ride the market’s recent momentum are getting close to “ensur[ing] themselves maximum damage”. “We’ve certainly made our own adaptations to improve our ability to ‘go with the flow’ with a greater frequency, even in markets that appear […]

Broader Outlook Gloomy, but You Can Still Make Money, Hussman Says

Fund manager John Hussman says the broader market is priced to return significantly less than its historical average for the next decade — and says the government’s huge bailout of financial firms was not, as many believe, the reason the U.S. avoided a redux of the Great Depression. In his latest commentary, Hussman lists 12 […]

Hussman on Why QE2 Misses the Point

Stocks have been on the rise recently, thanks in large part to speculation that the Federal Reserve will engage in more quantitative easing to spur the economy. But fund manager John Hussman says there’s just one problem with “QE2”: It addresses issues that aren’t actually the cause of the economy’s problems. In his latest market […]

Economy Isn’t Out of Woods, Hussman Warns

While the National Bureau of Economic Research recently declared that the so-called Great Recession ended in June of 2009, John Hussman says that doesn’t mean the economic pain is over. In his latest market commentary for Hussman Funds, Hussman says that data cited by NBER itself shows that we may already be headed back into […]

Hussman: Market Still Overvalued

John Hussman says technicals and fundamentals are battling it out in the market. And, while the former may take stocks higher in the short term, the latter will win out over the long haul, he says. “We continue to observe a clear deterioration in leading indicators of economic activity,” Hussman writes in his latest market […]

Hussman: Don’t Believe That Stocks Are Cheap

While Liz Ann Sonders says stocks are undervalued using her computation of “normalized” earnings, fund manager John Hussman has a far different view. In his latest market commentary, Hussman says the S&P 500 is trading for about 40% above historical norms based on his own normalized earnings calculation. One apparent difference between Sonders’ and Hussman’s […]

Hussman Sounds Recession Bell

Fund manager John Hussman is amping up his recession warnings, saying that, “based on evidence that has always and only been observed during or immediately prior to U.S. recessions, the U.S. economy appears headed into a second leg of an unusually challenging downturn.” Hussman recently noted that of the four pieces of his recession indicator, […]

Hussman: Four Factors Pushing Us Toward a Double-Dip

In his latest weekly market commentary, top fund manager John Hussman says four factors are indicating that the U.S. is on the verge of a double-dip recession. “In every instance we’ve observed these conditions, the U.S. economy has either already been in a recession, or has been within a few weeks of what turned out […]

Hussman: More Trouble Ahead

Top fund manager John Hussman is seeing more trouble on the horizon for stocks. Hussman tells Bloomberg that there has been “strong deterioration” in market internals, and that such deterioration has historically been followed by market declines over the next 12 weeks and the next 12 months.

Hussman: These Dips Don’t Offer Much Opportunity

Despite the market’s recent struggles, John Hussman — whose funds have some solid long-term track records — isn’t seeing a great opportunity to “buy on the dip”. “My impression is that the market remains in a tenuous state in that we have not meaningfully cleared the overextended syndrome that has been with us in recent […]

Hussman Defensive as More Credit Woes Loom

John Hussman is continuing to maintain a defensive position on stocks, saying that two dangers — an overbought, overvalued market and the coming to roost of a second wave of credit losses — mean investors should be cautious. “It is important to note that our current defensive position is driven by the present combination of […]

Hussman “Cautiously Pessimistic”

Hussman Funds’ John Hussman says he’s fully hedging his Strategic Growth Fund, seeing the recent market weakness as a “natural (though unpredictable in timing) clearing of the previously overextended market condition.” In his latest market commentary, Hussman says it’s not impossible that this clearing phase is over, “but it would be uncharacteristic, particularly since we’ve […]

Hussman: 80% Chance of 2010 Plunge

John Hussman, whose funds have some of the better long-term track records in the industry despite missing out on much of the ’09 rally, says he sees an 80% chance of a market plunge and economic downturn in 2010. “This is not certainty, but the evidence that we’ve observed in the equity market, labor market, […]