Robert (Bob) Rodriguez, former managing partner at asset-management firm FPA, shared insights and opinions regarding various market-related topics in an interview recently published in Advisor Perspectives. Here are some highlights: On mean reversion: Rodriguez emphasizes that a mean reversion will occur. He shares his belief that the “standards in the industry are being compromised; monetary policy has so totally distorted the capital markets. You are now into the eighth year of a period that is unprecedented in the likes of human history.” When asked, “What is driving the flow of mutual fund assets to passive strategies and what can or should […]
A smart-beta pioneer, Rob Arnott of Research Affiliates warns that these investment vehicles are in a bubble, says an article in last week’s Bloomberg. Smart-beta ETFs organize securities based on quantitative factors like volatility or “cheapness”, and the article explains that Arnott’s position is nothing new (he publicly battled with Cliff Asness on the topic a year ago). In fact, his firm’s website (Research Affiliates specializes in “cheap-stock” ETFs) offers investors a tool to gauge which funds are “about to pop” and has created a line of indexes that adjust holdings based on variables such as valuation. According to the […]
Chuck Royce, small cap stock picker and pioneer, recently sat down with Consuelo Mack of WealthTrack to discuss his thoughts on the recent slump of value vs. growth stocks as well as his firm’s process for sourcing new investment ideas. Royce, who has been in the investment management business since 1972, explains that small cap stocks can offer outsized long term returns, potentially with less volatility (assuming you are investing in value stocks) compared to other asset classes. Royce points out that value stocks have significantly underperformed growth stocks since early 2009. He theorizes this is largely due to firms […]
Rob Arnott and Christopher Brightman of Research Affiliates recently discussed the allocation and performance of PIMCO All Asset Fund, which goes outside mainstream investments into what they describe as the Third Pillar. Arnott explains that a three-year bear market in Third Pillar investments has impacted investors’ outcomes and outlooks. Although the fund’s 7% loss from 2013 to 2015 is significantly better than the relevant benchmarks, it appears disappointing in light of the excellent performance of the First Pillar investments (i.e., mainstream stocks). “Even though most investors have far less invested in the Third Pillar than they invest in U.S. stocks, […]
After a lengthy period of underperformance, value stocks have started to rebound. And in a recent piece for Proactive Advisor, Validea CEO John P. Reese says they are now poised to outperform their pricier growth stock counterparts. Reese talks about some of the reasons value stocks have struggled over the past decade, saying that investors have been incredibly risk-averse in the aftermath of the financial crisis and Great Recession and thus very hesitant to buy value stocks, which usually have some sort of cloud hanging over them. The rise of index funds, most of which are market-capitalization weighted and thus […]
In an excellent recent interview with The Investors Podcast, quantitative guru Tobias Carlisle talks about the powerful force of mean reversion in the stock market and economy, and offers a number of insights about quantitative investment strategies.
Mean reversion is a key part of many investors’ strategies, and right now some are pointing to above-the-mean cyclically-adjusted price/earnings ratios as a sign that stocks are overvalued. But Morningstar Vice President of Research John Rekenthaler says mean reversion isn’t as simple as it may seem. If you take the current long-term mean and see where stocks were in relation to that mean in, say, 1992, it might look like it was an easy choice to buy or sell stocks back then, Rekenthaler notes. “It looks crystal clear going backwards,” he says. “[But it doesn’t seem to work so well in 1992, when […]