Top Forecaster: Market Fundamentals Best in 20 Years

Top forecaster Norman Fosback says “the market’s fundamental position has evolved to the most favorable alignment in 20 years,” and sees big gains for stocks over the next year and the next five years. Fosback, who served as head of the Institute for Econometric Research for three decades, has a “long and eminent a record”, according to MarketWatch’s Mark Hulbert. Hulbert notes that in the latest Fosback’s Fund Forecaster newsletter, Fosback says his econometric model is calling for the stock market to rise by 19% over the next 12 months, and 89% over the next five years — that’s almost […]

Hulbert: Prescient Indicator Is Bullish

Mark Hulbert says an indicator with an impeccable track record is now in bullish territory. The indicator: The High Low Logic Index, created by Norman Fosback in the 1970s, when he was president of the Institute for Econometric Research. “The index represents the lesser of two numbers: New 52-week highs and new 52-week lows with both expressed as a percentage of total issues traded,” Hulbert writes on MarketWatch.com. Essentially, the index looks for uniformity; that is, times when the highs far outnumber the lows, or times when the lows far outnumber the highs. According to Fosback, Hulbert reports, “it doesn’t […]

Top Forecaster: Real GDP Back to Pre-Recession Levels

While few have noticed, the U.S. has now reached pre-recession gross domestic product levels, says one top strategist who is bullish heading into 2011. In a recent MarketWatch column, Mark Hulbert says Norman Fosback, editor of Fosback’s Fund Forecaster, has extrapolated U.S. GDP data and found that, “as of this moment, we are virtually right there: a 100% recovery” in real, inflation-adjusted terms, of where the GDP was at its pre-recession peak. “And if not, then a couple or a few more weeks at most,” Fosback adds. But while that may seem like a major milestone, few in the media […]

Hulbert: Two Top Forecasting Models Bullish

Given the recent economic and market turmoil, there’s been a resurgence of pundits warning of a double-dip recession, or another major market crash. But newsletter-tracker Mark Hulbert says two econometric forecasters with excellent long-term track records are bullish right now. The first is Sam Eisenstadt, the former Value Line research chairman. His model predicts that over the next six months, the S&P 500 will return about 20%. The other is Norman Fosback of Fosback’s Fund Forecaster, who used to head the Institute for Econometric Research. Fosback recently said his model expects the market to gain 26% in the next year, […]