Robert Shiller Shares Insights on the Trump-Bump

In a February interview with Bloomberg, Yale University professor Robert Shiller says, “I think the Trump effect is really important.” While Shiller, winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics, says he can’t speak authoritatively on what’s ahead because that would be “guessing human psychology,” he says that the current Shiller P/E ratio (also referred to as the CAPE) of 29 is “very high” and could spell trouble. It’s not at the level it was in 1929, he says, but it’s close. Shiller recalls that the CAPE was at a similar level in 1997 and “held on for 10 years.” While […]

Has Trump Resurrected Active Management?

Hedge fund manager Dan Loeb believes the current environment is “undoubtedly better for active investing—just as active investing was considered to be on its deathbed,” according to an article on last week’s Third Point’s Loeb argues that higher rates will create opportunities for active managers, “reversing the one-way trade in yields that dampened the past few years.” He cites Trump’s promises to cut taxes and regulations as potential causes for the shift. The article states, “other market strategists have also said that 2017 is the year stock picking, or active money management, can increase investment returns after suffering amid […]

Summers Says Trump Presidency Brings Uncertainty

A few weeks ago, former U.S. Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers said investors are being “far too sanguine about the risks associated with Donald Trump’s incoming administration,” according to a Bloomberg article. Summers, now a professor at Harvard, referred to the changes on the horizon for both foreign and domestic policy as forces creating “extraordinary uncertainty.” In a Bloomberg television interview, Summers said, “This is probably the largest transition ideologically and in terms of substantive policy that we’ve seen in the U.S. in the last three quarters of a century,” although he doesn’t believe this has been fully recognized by the […]