Jason Zweig on Potential Quantitative Model Crisis

A Ph.D. in Economics and former senior risk manager for Bridgewater Associates, Richard Bookstaber argues that while human judgment along with quantitative modeling can lead to better results than either alone, “when humans put blind faith in quantitative models, that’s dangerous.” This according to Jason Zweig in this month’s Wall Street Journal. The article discusses Bookstaber’s new book, The End of Theory, in which the author argues that computers and mathematical models perform well when drawing from historical data on the assumption that “variables will behave in the future the way they did in the past.” However, Zweig writes, “a […]

Crisis Predictors Offer Advice

Three of the financial minds who warned of the current credit crisis — Banc of America Securities-Merrill Lynch’s Richard Bernstein, PIMCO’s Paul McCulley, and author and former Wall Streeter Richard Bookstaber — offered their views on the current economy and what investors should do in this market on WealthTrack with Consuelo Mack recently. (Click on the WealthTrack Video on Demand image to watch the video.) Bernstein said it is difficult to form a consistent investment strategy when the system is not following a typical risk/reward pattern. He says his firm has tried to form well diversified portfolios — something that […]