Economy and Markets

On balance, earnings season continues to bring good news. As of August 4th, 72% of S&P 500 companies have beat the mean earnings-per-share estimate and 70% have beat the mean sales estimate. Calendar second-quarter earnings have grown 10.1% (data from FactSet), ahead of forecasted growth of 6.2%. Investors seems to be disregarding news of continued turmoil both in Washington on the whole and within the Trump administration.

As of August 8th, the S&P 500 reached 2,479, reflecting year-to-date growth of 10.76%. The biggest gains were achieved by the information technology sector (+23.20%), followed by healthcare (+15.46%) and consumer discretionary (+12.02%). The heaviest losses occurred in energy (-13.57%) and telecommunications (-8.75%). The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose to 22,107, gaining 11.85% year-to-date, and the Nasdaq surged by 18.71% to 6.390 for the same period.

On the labor front, total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 209,000 in July, more than expected, leaving the unemployment rate little changed at 4.3 percent. Employment increased in food services, professional and business services, and health care. Wage growth has held steady.

Bureau of Economic Analysis data shows that real GDP grew by 2.6% in the second quarter compared to 1.2% (revised) in the first quarter. Personal income remained unchanged in June because disposable personal income (DPI) decreased by $4.2 billion (-0.1%) while personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased by $8.1 billion (+0.1%). The Department of Commerce reports that, according to figures for international trade in goods and services, the trade deficit decreased in June to $43.6 billion (from $46.4 billion in May).

The market P/E is 23.90, down slightly from one year ago (24.68).

Recommended Reading

Many subscribers are familiar with Validea's Guru Investor blog (launched in 2008), in which we offer highlights of interesting articles and investment commentary that is helpful to investors and that we believe stands out from the daily market noise. In case you missed our recent posts, here's a short list:

  • The Stock Market Still Seems to Believe the Fed: NYT article on the juxtaposition of lackluster economic indicators against the Fed's rate increases and tightening labor market. Read full post
  • Higher Fund Assets Can Lead to Poorer Fund Performance: Institutional Investor article on new findings showing how funds with rising asset levels can return poorer performance for investors. Read full post
  • Jeremy Siegel is Bullish on Stocks: Wharton finance professor Jeremy Siegel remains bullish notwithstanding others' concerns about the market. Read full post
  • Common Ownership Among Investors Could Make Economy Less Competitive: Bloomberg overview of research showing that common ownership is making companies and the economy less competitive. Read full post
  • Morgan Housel: Discomfort the Key to Investing Success: Collaborative Fund's Housel argues that the successful investor must be comfortable with discomfort. Read full post
  • Market Indicators Only Part of the Story, Plus Five Fundamentally Strong Stocks: Our John Reese shares perspectives on the investor's use of economic indicators and the value of diversification, with picks. Read full post
  • Buffett-Like Indicator Points to "Frothy" Markets: CNBC offers view of Deutche Bank's chief economist regarding a Buffett-like metric that he argues is pointing to a "frothy" market. Read full post
  • Buffett and Berkshire Focusing More on Running Businesses than Stock-Picking: The Wall Street Journal take on Buffett's move from stock-picking to an increased interest in acquiring operating businesses. Read full post
  • Where Have the Value Stocks Gone? Validea's John Reese argues that the current market is not presenting nearly as many bargains when viewing it through various valuation metrics. Read full post
  • Underperforming Canadian Stocks with Solid Potential: John Reese writes for The Globe and Mail that "it's hard for investors to avoid being skeptical as major benchmarks continue to rise." Read full post
News on Hot List Stocks

Magna International Inc. (USA) (MGA)

Magna International Inc. (Magna) is a global automotive supplier. In June, the company announced a partnership with the Michigan Department of Transportation and 3M to provide its camera and secure connectivity expertise to improve vehicle security and driver safety. This month, Jaguar Land Rover announced that its Jaguar E-Pace compact SUV will be built by Magna at its contract vehicle manufacturing facility in Graz, Austria.

Walker & Dunlop, Inc. (WD)

Walker & Dunlop Inc. is a holding company that operates through Walker & Dunlop, LLC. and provides commercial real estate financial products and services primarily to developers and owners of multifamily properties. Last month, the company announced that it was retained by Greystar Growth and Income Fund, LP to secure financing for Greystar's acquisition of Monogram Residential Trust (deal expected to close in the second half of the year). This will be the largest transaction in Walker & Dunlop's history.

Performance Update

Since our last newsletter, the S&P 500 returned -1.5%, while the Hot List returned -0.5%. So far in 2016, the portfolio has returned 8.3% vs. 8.9% for the S&P. Since its inception in July 2003, the Hot List is far outpacing the index, having gained 235.2% vs. the S&P's 143.7% gain.

Guru Spotlight: Peter Lynch

When Peter Lynch took over as manager of Fidelity's Magellan Fund in 1977, fund holdings totaled approximately $20 million. During his tenure from 1977 to 1990, it generated returns averaging 29.2% per year compared to the S&P 500's 15.8%, making Lynch something of a legend. When he retired in 1990, the fund had grown to $14 billion, a 700-fold increase.

In Peter Tanous's 1997 book Investment Gurus: A Road Map to Wealth from the World's Best Money Managers, he outlines an interview with Lynch in which the investing legend shares insights regarding his investing strategy and the factors he deems most important. In the interview, Lynch commented, "It's about keeping an open mind and doing a lot of work. The more industries you look at, the more companies you look at, the more opportunity you have of finding something that's mispriced."

Lynch is celebrated in the investing world for his no-nonsense, common-sense approach-one that just about anyone can understand and implement. His fund management track record represents one of the most impressive track records of all time, and his best-selling book One Up on Wall Street (1989) provides a road map of straightforward, easily-digestible investment advice geared toward the average investor.

In the interview with Tanous, Lynch shared his view that investors should roll up their sleeves and carefully analyze companies they are considering for investment. He said:

"I think that if you take my great stocks, and you ask a hundred people to visit them and spend a reasonable amount of time at it, 99 of them, assuming they had no prejudices and biases, would have bought those same stocks."

This is consistent with what we know of Lynch's approach. He believed that if you had some knowledge about a stock-for example, you bought and liked the company's products, its marketing, brand, etc.-you could have a leg up as an investor before professional investors might get to it. That's not to say, however (and Lynch himself has clarified this) that if you like a product, you should run out and buy the company's stock. Rather, this should be considered a good starting point, a reason to take interest in a company and put it on your research list. Yet another example of his common-sense investment strategy.

Lynch broke stocks into different categories and applied a variety of fundamental quantitative tests depending on where a company fit. These categories were as follows:

    1. Fast-growers: Companies that increased earnings at a rate of 20 percent or more per year while maintaining relatively low levels of debt;
    2. Stalwarts: Large, prominent companies with annual sales in the multibillion dollar range that experienced 10 to 19 percent annual earnings growth;
    3. Slow-growers: Large and aging companies that paid dividends and had single-digit earnings growth.

The one metric he applied to every category, however, was the P/E/G ratio, which Lynch created himself. This ratio compares a company's price-earnings ratio to the growth in its earnings-per-share. He felt that the P/E ratio alone wasn't as helpful a gauge if not considered against the company's growth. High price-earnings ratios by themselves weren't necessarily bad as long as a company was growing at an appropriate pace. The P/E/G ratio was one of the key metrics Lynch used to identify growth stocks that were selling at a good price-if it was under 1.0, Lynch was interested. If it was under 0.50, he was very interested.

Since its inception in 2003, Validea's P/E Growth Investor portfolio, inspired by the investment strategy of Peter Lynch, has returned 181.8%, outperforming the market by 34.2%. Even though our Lynch-based portfolio underperformed the S&P 500 in 2016 and year-to-date, it still generated returns of 6.7% and 6.5%, respectively. Similar to Lynch, our portfolio targets a wide variety of industries and sectors.

Click here to check out the Lynch-inspired model portfolio on Validea.


Portfolio Holdings
Ticker Date Added Return
AGX 5/5/2017 -11.9%
MGA 6/2/2017 1.0%
HDSN 7/28/2017 16.3%
SAFM 11/18/2016 72.6%
LMAT 7/28/2017 -3.5%
CACC 6/30/2017 6.0%
NTES 7/28/2017 -9.4%
BMA 7/1/2016 13.7%
WD 3/10/2017 13.1%
EVR 6/30/2017 8.7%


Guru Analysis
Disclaimer: The analysis is from Validea's selection and interpretation of content from the guru's book or published writings, and is not from nor endorsed by the guru. See Full Disclaimer

AGX   |   MGA   |   HDSN   |   SAFM   |   LMAT   |   CACC   |   NTES   |   BMA   |   WD   |   EVR   |  

ARGAN, INC.

Strategy: Growth Investor
Based on: Martin Zweig

Argan, Inc. is a holding company. The Company conducts operations through its subsidiaries, Gemma Power Systems, LLC and affiliates (GPS), Atlantic Projects Company Limited (APC), Southern Maryland Cable, Inc. (SMC) and The Roberts Company (Roberts). Through GPS and APC, the Company's power industry services segment provides engineering, procurement, construction, commissioning, operations management, maintenance, development, technical and consulting services to the power generation and renewable energy markets. Through SMC, the telecommunications infrastructure services segment of the Company provides project management, construction, installation and maintenance services to commercial, local government and federal government customers. Through Roberts, the Company's industrial fabrication and field services segment produces, delivers and installs fabricated steel components specializing in pressure vessels and heat exchangers for industrial plants.


P/E RATIO: PASS

The P/E of a company must be greater than 5 to eliminate weak companies, but not more than 3 times the current Market P/E because the situation is much too risky, and never greater than 43. AGX's P/E is 12.13, based on trailing 12 month earnings, while the current market PE is 20.00. Therefore, it passes the first test.


REVENUE GROWTH IN RELATION TO EPS GROWTH: PASS

Revenue Growth must not be substantially less than earnings growth. For earnings to continue to grow over time they must be supported by a comparable or better sales growth rate and not just by cost cutting or other non-sales measures. AGX's revenue growth is 34.86%, while it's earnings growth rate is 32.48%, based on the average of the 3, 4 and 5 year historical eps growth rates. Therefore, AGX passes this criterion.


SALES GROWTH RATE: FAIL

Another important issue regarding sales growth is that the rate of quarterly sales growth is rising. To evaluate this, the change from this quarter last year to the present quarter (76.8%) must be examined, and then compared to the previous quarter last year compared to the previous quarter (77.6%) of the current year. Sales growth for the prior must be greater than the latter. For AGX this criterion has not been met and fails this test.


The earnings numbers of a company should be examined from various different angles. Three of these angles are stability in the trend of earnings, earnings persistence, and earnings acceleration. To evaluate stability, the stock has to pass the following four criteria.


CURRENT QUARTER EARNINGS: PASS

The first of these criteria is that the current EPS be positive. AGX's EPS ($1.31) pass this test.


QUARTERLY EARNINGS ONE YEAR AGO: PASS

The EPS for the quarter one year ago must be positive. AGX's EPS for this quarter last year ($0.81) pass this test.


POSITIVE EARNINGS GROWTH RATE FOR CURRENT QUARTER: PASS

The growth rate of the current quarter's earnings compared to the same quarter a year ago must also be positive. AGX's growth rate of 61.73% passes this test.


EARNINGS GROWTH RATE FOR THE PAST SEVERAL QUARTERS: PASS

Compare the earnings growth rate of the previous three quarters with long-term EPS growth rate. Earnings growth in the previous 3 quarters should be at least half of the long-term EPS growth rate. Half of the long-term EPS growth rate for AGX is 16.24%. This should be less than the growth rates for the 3 previous quarters, which are 72.00%, 61.11%, and 182.22%. AGX passes this test, which means that it has good, reasonably steady earnings.


This strategy looks at the rate which earnings grow and evaluates this rate of growth from different angles. The 4 tests immediately following are detailed below.


EPS GROWTH FOR CURRENT QUARTER MUST BE GREATER THAN PRIOR 3 QUARTERS: PASS

If the growth rate of the prior three quarter's earnings, 93.75%, (versus the same three quarters a year earlier) is greater than the growth rate of the current quarter earnings, 61.73%, (versus the same quarter one year ago) then the stock fails, with one exception: if the growth rate in earnings between the current quarter and the same quarter one year ago is greater than 30%, then the stock would pass. The growth rate over this period for AGX is 61.7%, and it would therefore pass this test.


EPS GROWTH FOR CURRENT QUARTER MUST BE GREATER THAN THE HISTORICAL GROWTH RATE: PASS

The EPS growth rate for the current quarter, 61.73% must be greater than or equal to the historical growth which is 32.48%. AGX would therefore pass this test.


EARNINGS PERSISTENCE: FAIL

Companies must show persistent yearly earnings growth. To fulfill this requirement a company's earnings must increase each year for a five year period. AGX, whose annual EPS growth before extraordinary items for the previous 5 years (from the earliest to the most recent fiscal year) were 1.65, 2.78, 2.05, 2.42, and 4.50, fails this test.


LONG-TERM EPS GROWTH: PASS

One final earnings test required is that the long-term earnings growth rate must be at least 15% per year. AGX's long-term growth rate of 32.48%, based on the average of the 3, 4 and 5 year historical eps growth rates, passes this test.


TOTAL DEBT/EQUITY RATIO: PASS

A final criterion is that a company must not have a high level of debt. A high level of total debt, due to high interest expenses, can have a very negative effect on earnings if business moderately turns down. If a company does have a high level, an investor may want to avoid this stock altogether. AGX's Debt/Equity (0.00%) is not considered high relative to its industry (50.91%) and passes this test.


INSIDER TRANSACTIONS: PASS

A factor that adds to a stock's attractiveness is if insider buy transactions number 3 or more, while insider sell transactions are zero. Zweig calls this an insider buy signal. For AGX, this criterion has not been met (insider sell transactions are 272, while insiders buying number 69). Despite the fact that insider sells out number insider buys for this company, Zweig considers even one insider buy transaction enough to prevent an insider sell signal, therefore there is not an insider sell signal and the stock passes this criterion.


MAGNA INTERNATIONAL INC. (USA)

Strategy: Growth/Value Investor
Based on: James P. O'Shaughnessy

Magna International Inc. (Magna) is a global automotive supplier. The Company's segments are North America, Europe, Asia, Rest of World, and Corporate and Other. The Company's product capabilities include producing body, chassis, exterior, seating, powertrain, electronic, active driver assistance, vision, closure, and roof systems and modules, as well as vehicle engineering and contract manufacturing. The Company has over 320 manufacturing operations and approximately 100 product development, engineering and sales centers in over 30 countries. It provides a range of body, chassis and engineering solutions to its original equipment manufacturer (OEM) customers. It has capabilities in powertrain design, development, testing and manufacturing. It offers bumper fascia systems, exterior trim and modular systems. It offers exterior and interior mirror systems. It offers sealing, trim, engineered glass and module systems. It offers softtops, retractable hardtops, modular tops and hardtops.


MARKET CAP: PASS

The first requirement of the Cornerstone Growth Strategy is that the company has a market capitalization of at least $150 million. This will screen out the companies that are too illiquid for most investors, but still include a small growth company. MGA, with a market cap of $17,504 million, passes this criterion.


EARNINGS PER SHARE PERSISTENCE: PASS

The Cornerstone Growth methodology looks for companies that show persistent earnings growth without regard to magnitude. To fulfill this requirement, a company's earnings must increase each year for a five year period. MGA, whose annual EPS before extraordinary items for the last 5 years (from earliest to the most recent fiscal year) were 3.05, 3.38, 4.44, 4.72 and 5.16, passes this test.


PRICE/SALES RATIO: PASS

The Price/Sales ratio should be below 1.5. This value criterion, coupled with the growth criterion, identify growth stocks that are still cheap to buy. MGA's Price/Sales ratio of 0.47, based on trailing 12 month sales, passes this criterion.


RELATIVE STRENGTH: PASS

The final criterion for the Cornerstone Growth Strategy requires that the Relative Strength of the company be among the top 50 of the stocks screened using the previous criterion. This gives you the opportunity to buy the growth stocks you are searching for just as the market is embracing them. MGA, whose relative strength is 61, is in the top 50 and would pass this last criterion.


HUDSON TECHNOLOGIES, INC.

Strategy: Small-Cap Growth Investor
Based on: Motley Fool

Hudson Technologies, Inc. is a refrigerant services company. The Company's products and services are primarily used in commercial air conditioning, industrial processing and refrigeration systems, and include refrigerant and industrial gas sales, refrigerant management services consisting primarily of reclamation of refrigerants and RefrigerantSide Services performed at a customer's site, consisting of system decontamination to remove moisture, oils and other contaminants. In addition, the Company's SmartEnergy OPS service is a Web-based real time continuous monitoring service applicable to a facility's refrigeration systems and other energy systems. The Company's Chiller Chemistry and Chill Smart services are also predictive and diagnostic service offerings. The Company sells reclaimed and virgin (new) refrigerants to a variety of customers in various segments of the air conditioning and refrigeration industry, and sells industrial gases to a variety of industry segments.


PROFIT MARGIN: PASS

This methodology seeks companies with a minimum trailing 12 month after tax profit margin of 7%. The companies that pass this criterion have strong positions within their respective industries and offer greater shareholder returns. A true test of the quality of a company is that they can sustain this margin. HDSN's profit margin of 12.80% passes this test.


RELATIVE STRENGTH: PASS

The investor must look at the relative strength of the company in question. Companies whose relative strength is 90 or above (that is, the company outperforms 90% or more of the market for the past year), are considered attractive. Companies whose price has been rising much quicker than the market tend to keep rising. HDSN, with a relative strength of 93, satisfies this test.


COMPARE SALES AND EPS GROWTH TO THE SAME PERIOD LAST YEAR: PASS

Companies must demonstrate both revenue and net income growth of at least 25% as compared to the prior year. These growth rates give you the dynamic companies that you are looking for. These rates for HDSN (42.86% for EPS, and 50.95% for Sales) are good enough to pass.


INSIDER HOLDINGS: PASS

HDSN's insiders should own at least 10% (they own 12.61% ) of the company's outstanding shares which is the minimum required. A high percentage typically indicates that the insiders are confident that the company will do well.


CASH FLOW FROM OPERATIONS: PASS

A positive cash flow is typically used for internal expansion, acquisitions, dividend payments, etc. A company that generates rather than consumes cash is in much better shape to fund such activities on their own, rather than needing to borrow funds to do so. HDSN's free cash flow of $0.22 per share passes this test.


PROFIT MARGIN CONSISTENCY: PASS

HDSN's profit margin has been consistent or even increasing over the past three years (Current year: 10.09%, Last year: 5.97%, Two years ago: -1.29%), passing the requirement. It is a sign of good management and a healthy and competitive enterprise.


R&D AS A PERCENTAGE OF SALES: NEUTRAL

This criterion is not critically important for companies that are not high-tech or medical stocks because they are not as R&D dependant as companies within those sectors. Not much emphasis should be placed on this test in HDSN's case.


CASH AND CASH EQUIVALENTS: PASS

HDSN's level of cash $33.9 million passes this criteria. If a company is a cash generator, like HDSN, it has the ability to pay off debt (if it has any) or acquire other companies. Most importantly, good operations generate cash.


INVENTORY TO SALES: PASS

This methodology strongly believes that companies, especially small ones, should have tight control over inventory. It's a warning sign if a company's inventory relative to sales increases significantly when compared to the previous year. Up to a 30% increase is allowed, but no more. Inventory to Sales for HDSN was 77.65% last year, while for this year it is 65.04%. Since the inventory to sales is decreasing by -12.61% the stock passes this criterion.


ACCOUNT RECEIVABLE TO SALES: PASS

This methodology wants to make sure that a company's accounts receivable do not get significantly out of line with sales. It's a warning sign if a company's accounts receivable relative to sales increases significantly when compared to the previous year. Up to a 30% increase is allowed, but no more. Accounts Receivable to Sales for HDSN was 5.53% last year, while for this year it is 4.55%. Since the AR to sales is decreasing by -0.98% the stock passes this criterion.


LONG TERM DEBT/EQUITY RATIO: PASS

HDSN's trailing twelve-month Debt/Equity ratio (0.08%) is a little higher than what this methodology is looking for, but is still at an acceptable level. The superior companies that you are looking for don't need to borrow money in order to grow. This company has borrowed very little which is still OK.


"THE FOOL RATIO" (P/E TO GROWTH): FAIL

The "Fool Ratio" is an extremely important aspect of this analysis. The methodology says consider selling the shares when the company's Fool Ratio is between 1.0 and 1.30. (HDSN's is 1.10). This is considered to be high.

The following criteria for HDSN are less important which means you would place less emphasis on them when making your investment decision using this strategy:

AVERAGE SHARES OUTSTANDING: PASS

HDSN has not been significantly increasing the number of shares outstanding within recent years which is a good sign. HDSN currently has 44.0 million shares outstanding. This means the company is not taking any measures, with regards to the number of shares, that will dilute or devalue the stock.


SALES: PASS

Companies with sales less than $500 million should be chosen. It is among these small-cap stocks that investors can find "an uncut gem", ones that institutions won't be able to buy yet. HDSN's sales of $133.8 million based on trailing 12 month sales, are fine, making this company one such "prospective gem". HDSN passes the sales test.


DAILY DOLLAR VOLUME: PASS

HDSN passes the Daily Dollar Volume (DDV of $6.7 million) test. It is required that this number be less than $25 million because these are the stocks that remain relatively undiscovered by institutions. "You'll be scoring touchdowns against the big guys on your turf."


PRICE: PASS

This is a very insignificant criterion for this methodology. But basically, low prices are chosen because "small numbers multiply more rapidly than large ones" and the potential for big returns expands. HDSN with a price of $9.26 passes the price test. The price should be above $7 in order to eliminate penny stocks and below $20 since most stocks in this price range are undiscovered by the institutions.


INCOME TAX PERCENTAGE: PASS

HDSN's income tax paid expressed as a percentage of pretax income this year was (38.41%) and last year (38.13%) are greater than 20% which is an acceptable level. If the tax rate is below 20% this could mean that the earnings that were reported were unrealistically inflated due to the lower level of income tax paid. This is a concern.


SANDERSON FARMS, INC.

Strategy: Price/Sales Investor
Based on: Kenneth Fisher

Sanderson Farms, Inc. is a poultry processing company. The Company is engaged in the production, processing, marketing and distribution of fresh and frozen chicken, and also preparation, processing, marketing and distribution of processed and minimally prepared chicken. It sells ice pack, chill pack, bulk pack and frozen chicken, in whole, cut-up and boneless form, under the Sanderson Farms brand name to retailers, distributors, casual dining operators, customers reselling frozen chicken into export markets. The Company, through its subsidiaries, Sanderson Farms, Inc. (Production Division) and Sanderson Farms, Inc. (Processing Division), conducts its chicken operations. Sanderson Farms, Inc. (Production Division) is engaged in the production of chickens to the broiler-stage. Sanderson Farms, Inc. (Foods Division) is engaged in the processing, sale and distribution of chickens. The Company, through Sanderson Farms, Inc. (Foods Division), conducts its prepared chicken business.


PRICE/SALES RATIO: PASS

The prospective company should have a low Price/Sales ratio. Non-cyclical (non-Smokestack) companies with Price/Sales ratio between .75 and 1.5 are good values. SAFM's P/S ratio of 1.06 based on trailing 12 month sales, falls within the "good values" range for non-cyclical companies and is considered attractive.


TOTAL DEBT/EQUITY RATIO: PASS

Less debt equals less risk according to this methodology. SAFM's Debt/Equity of 0.00% is exceptional, thus passing the test.


PRICE/RESEARCH RATIO: PASS

This methodology considers companies in the Technology and Medical sectors to be attractive if they have low Price/Research ratios. SAFM is neither a Technology nor Medical company. Therefore the Price/Research ratio is not available and, hence, not much emphasis should be placed on this particular variable.


PRELIMINARY GRADE: Some Interest in SAFM At this Point

Is SAFM a "Super Stock"? NO


PRICE/SALES RATIO: FAIL

The prospective company should have a low Price/Sales ratio. To be considered a "Super Stock", non-cyclical (non-Smokestack) companies should have Price/Sales ratios below .75. However, SAFM, who has a P/S of 1.06, does not fall within the "Super Stock" range. It does fall between 0.75 and 1.5, which is considered the "good values" range for non-cyclical companies. Nonetheless, it does not pass this "Super Stock" criterion.


LONG-TERM EPS GROWTH RATE: PASS

This methodology looks for companies that have an inflation adjusted EPS growth rate greater than 15%. SAFM's inflation adjusted EPS growth rate of 23.19% passes the test.


FREE CASH PER SHARE: PASS

This methodology looks for companies that have a positive free cash per share. Companies should have enough free cash available to sustain three years of losses. This is based on the premise that companies without cash will soon be out of business. SAFM's free cash per share of 2.21 passes this criterion.


THREE YEAR AVERAGE NET PROFIT MARGIN: PASS

This methodology looks for companies that have an average net profit margin of 5% or greater over a three year period. SAFM, whose three year net profit margin averages 7.80%, passes this evaluation.



LEMAITRE VASCULAR INC

Strategy: Growth Investor
Based on: Martin Zweig

LeMaitre Vascular, Inc. is a provider of medical devices for the treatment of peripheral vascular disease. The Company develops, manufactures and markets medical devices and implants used primarily in the field of vascular surgery. It is engaged in the design, marketing, sales and technical support of medical devices and implants for the treatment of peripheral vascular disease industry segment. The Company's product lines include valvulotomes, balloon catheters, carotid shunts, biologic vascular patches, radiopaque marking tape, anastomotic clips, remote endarterectomy devices, laparoscopic cholecystectomy devices, prosthetic vascular grafts, biologic vascular grafts and powered phlebectomy devices. Its portfolio of peripheral vascular devices consists of brand name products that are used in arteries and veins outside of the heart, including the Expandable LeMaitre Valvulotome, the Pruitt F3 Carotid Shunt, VascuTape Radiopaque Tape and the XenoSure biologic patch.


P/E RATIO: FAIL

The P/E of a company must be greater than 5 to eliminate weak companies, not more than 3 times the current Market P/E because the situation is much too risky, and never greater than 43. LMAT's P/E is 47.11, based on trailing 12 month earnings, while the current market P/E is 20.00. Therefore, it fails the first test.


REVENUE GROWTH IN RELATION TO EPS GROWTH: FAIL

Revenue Growth must not be substantially less than earnings growth. For earnings to continue to grow over time they must be supported by a comparable or better sales growth rate and not just by cost cutting or other non-sales measures. LMAT's revenue growth is 10.77%, while it's earnings growth rate is 36.41%, based on the average of the 3, 4 and 5 year historical eps growth rates. Therefore, LMAT fails this criterion.


SALES GROWTH RATE: FAIL

Another important issue regarding sales growth is that the rate of quarterly sales growth is rising. To evaluate this, the change from this quarter last year to the present quarter (15%) must be examined, and then compared to the previous quarter last year compared to the previous quarter (19.2%) of the current year. Sales growth for the prior must be greater than the latter. For LMAT this criterion has not been met and fails this test.


The earnings numbers of a company should be examined from various different angles. Three of these angles are stability in the trend of earnings, earnings persistence, and earnings acceleration. To evaluate stability, the stock has to pass the following four criteria.


CURRENT QUARTER EARNINGS: PASS

The first of these criteria is that the current EPS be positive. LMAT's EPS ($0.23) pass this test.


QUARTERLY EARNINGS ONE YEAR AGO: PASS

The EPS for the quarter one year ago must be positive. LMAT's EPS for this quarter last year ($0.14) pass this test.


POSITIVE EARNINGS GROWTH RATE FOR CURRENT QUARTER: PASS

The growth rate of the current quarter's earnings compared to the same quarter a year ago must also be positive. LMAT's growth rate of 64.29% passes this test.


EARNINGS GROWTH RATE FOR THE PAST SEVERAL QUARTERS: FAIL

Compare the earnings growth rate of the previous three quarters with long-term EPS growth rate. Earnings growth in the previous 3 quarters should be at least half of the long-term EPS growth rate. Half of the long-term EPS growth rate for LMAT is 18.20%. This should be less than the growth rates for the 3 previous quarters which are 54.55%, 0.00% and 33.33%. LMAT does not pass this test, which means that it does not have good, reasonably steady earnings.


This strategy looks at the rate which earnings grow and evaluates this rate of growth from different angles. The 4 tests immediately following are detailed below.


EPS GROWTH FOR CURRENT QUARTER MUST BE GREATER THAN PRIOR 3 QUARTERS: PASS

If the growth rate of the prior three quarter's earnings, 27.78%, (versus the same three quarters a year earlier) is less than the growth rate of the current quarter earnings, 64.29%, (versus the same quarter one year ago) then the stock passes.


EPS GROWTH FOR CURRENT QUARTER MUST BE GREATER THAN THE HISTORICAL GROWTH RATE: PASS

The EPS growth rate for the current quarter, 64.29% must be greater than or equal to the historical growth which is 36.41%. LMAT would therefore pass this test.


EARNINGS PERSISTENCE: PASS

Companies must show persistent yearly earnings growth. To fulfill this requirement a company's earnings must increase each year for a five year period. LMAT, whose annual EPS growth before extraordinary items for the previous 5 years (from the earliest to the most recent fiscal year) were 0.16, 0.20, 0.23, 0.42 and 0.55, passes this test.


LONG-TERM EPS GROWTH: PASS

One final earnings test required is that the long-term earnings growth rate must be at least 15% per year. LMAT's long-term growth rate of 36.41%, based on the average of the 3, 4 and 5 year historical eps growth rates, passes this test.


TOTAL DEBT/EQUITY RATIO: PASS

A final criterion is that a company must not have a high level of debt. A high level of total debt, due to high interest expenses, can have a very negative effect on earnings if business moderately turns down. If a company does have a high level, an investor may want to avoid this stock altogether. LMAT's Debt/Equity (0.00%) is not considered high relative to its industry (63.19%) and passes this test.


INSIDER TRANSACTIONS: PASS

A factor that adds to a stock's attractiveness is if insider buy transactions number 3 or more, while insider sell transactions are zero. Zweig calls this an insider buy signal. For LMAT, this criterion has not been met (insider sell transactions are 495, while insiders buying number 184). Despite the fact that insider sells out number insider buys for this company, Zweig considers even one insider buy transaction enough to prevent an insider sell signal, therefore there is not an insider sell signal and the stock passes this criterion.


CREDIT ACCEPTANCE CORP.

Strategy: P/E/Growth Investor
Based on: Peter Lynch

Credit Acceptance Corporation offers financing programs that enable automobile dealers to sell vehicles to consumers. The Company's financing programs are offered through a network of automobile dealers. The Company has two Dealers financing programs: the Portfolio Program and the Purchase Program. Under the Portfolio Program, the Company advances money to dealers (Dealer Loan) in exchange for the right to service the underlying consumer loans. Under the Purchase Program, the Company buys the consumer loans from the dealers (Purchased Loan) and keeps the amounts collected from the consumer. Dealer Loans and Purchased Loans are collectively referred to as Loans. As of December 31, 2016, the Company's target market included approximately 60,000 independent and franchised automobile dealers in the United States. The Company has market area managers located throughout the United States that market its programs to dealers, enroll new dealers and support active dealers.


DETERMINE THE CLASSIFICATION:

CACC is considered a "Stalwart", according to this methodology, for its earnings growth of 17.04%. This is based on based on the average of the 3, 4 and 5 year historical eps growth rates, which lies within a moderate 10%-19% range. This methodology looks for the "Stalwart" securities to gain 30%-50% in value over a two year period if they can be purchased at an attractive price based on the P/E to Growth ratio. However, CACC is not considered a "True Stalwart" for its sales of $1,042 million are less than the multi-billion dollar level.


YIELD ADJUSTED P/E TO GROWTH (PEG) RATIO: PASS

The Yield-adjusted P/E/G ratio for CACC (0.87), based on the average of the 3, 4 and 5 year historical eps growth rates, is O.K.


EARNINGS PER SHARE: PASS

The EPS for a stalwart company must be positive. CACC's EPS ($18.32) would satisfy this criterion.


TOTAL DEBT/EQUITY RATIO: NEUTRAL

CACC is a financial company so debt to equity rules are not applied to determine the company's financial soundness.


EQUITY/ASSETS RATIO: PASS

This methodology uses the Equity/Assets Ratio as a way to determine a financial intermediary's health, as it is a better measure than the Debt/Equity Ratio. CACC's Equity/Assets ratio (26.00%) is extremely healthy and above the minimum 5% this methodology looks for, thus passing the criterion.


RETURN ON ASSETS: PASS

This methodology uses Return on Assets as a way to measure a financial intermediary's profitability. CACC's ROA (8.36%) is above the minimum 1% that this methodology looks for, thus passing the criterion.


FREE CASH FLOW: NEUTRAL

The Free Cash Flow/Price ratio, though not a requirement, is considered a bonus if it is above 35%. A positive Cash Flow (the higher the better) separates a wonderfully reliable investment from a shaky one. This methodology prefers not to invest in companies that rely heavily on capital spending. This ratio for CACC (9.02%) is too low to add to the attractiveness of the stock. Keep in mind, however, that it does not adversely affect the company as it is a bonus criteria.


NET CASH POSITION: NEUTRAL

Another bonus for a company is having a Net Cash/Price ratio above 30%. Lynch defines net cash as cash and marketable securities minus long term debt. According to this methodology, a high value for this ratio dramatically cuts down on the risk of the security. The Net Cash/Price ratio for CACC (-57.95%) is too low to add to the attractiveness of this company. Keep in mind, however, that it does not adversely affect the company as it is a bonus criteria.


NETEASE INC (ADR)

Strategy: Small-Cap Growth Investor
Based on: Motley Fool

NetEase, Inc. (NetEase) is a technology company. The Company operates an interactive online community in China and is a provider of Chinese language content and services through its online games, Internet media, e-mail, e-commerce and other businesses. The Company operates through three segments: Online Game Services; Advertising Services, and E-mail, E-commerce and Others. Its online games business primarily focuses on offering personal computer (PC)-client massively multi-player online role-playing games (PC-client MMORPGs), as well as mobile games to the Chinese market. The NetEase Websites provide Internet users with Chinese language online services centered over three core service categories, which include content, community and communication. Its online advertising offerings include banner advertising, direct e-mail, sponsored special events, games, contests and other activities. It offers free and fee-based premium e-mail services to its individual users and corporate users.


PROFIT MARGIN: PASS

This methodology seeks companies with a minimum trailing 12 month after tax profit margin of 7%. The companies that pass this criterion have strong positions within their respective industries and offer greater shareholder returns. A true test of the quality of a company is that they can sustain this margin. NTES's profit margin of 30.30% passes this test.


RELATIVE STRENGTH: FAIL

The investor must look at the relative strength of the company in question. Companies whose relative strength is 90 or above (that is, the company outperforms 90% or more of the market for the past year), are considered attractive. Companies whose price has been rising much quicker than the market tend to keep rising. NTES, with a relative strength of 83, fails this test.


COMPARE SALES AND EPS GROWTH TO THE SAME PERIOD LAST YEAR: PASS

Companies must demonstrate both revenue and net income growth of at least 25% as compared to the prior year. These growth rates give you the dynamic companies that you are looking for. These rates for NTES (3,608.33% for EPS, and 56.12% for Sales) are good enough to pass.


INSIDER HOLDINGS: PASS

NTES's insiders should own at least 10% (they own 44.44% ) of the company's outstanding shares which is extremely attractive since the minimum requirement is 10%. A high percentage indicates that the insiders are confident that the company will do well.


CASH FLOW FROM OPERATIONS: PASS

A positive cash flow is typically used for internal expansion, acquisitions, dividend payments, etc. A company that generates rather than consumes cash is in much better shape to fund such activities on their own, rather than needing to borrow funds to do so. NTES's free cash flow of $13.42 per share passes this test.


PROFIT MARGIN CONSISTENCY: FAIL

The profit margin in the past must be consistently increasing. The profit margin of NTES has been inconsistent in the past three years (Current year: 30.40%, Last year: 29.54%, Two years ago: 40.61%), which is unacceptable. This inconsistency will carryover directly to the company's bottom line, or earnings per share.


R&D AS A PERCENTAGE OF SALES: NEUTRAL

This criterion is not critically important for companies that are not high-tech or medical stocks because they are not as R&D dependant as companies within those sectors. Not much emphasis should be placed on this test in NTES's case.


CASH AND CASH EQUIVALENTS: PASS

NTES has a large amount of cash $820.5 million on hand. Although this criteria does not apply to companies of this size, we define anything greater than $500 million in cash as having 'a lot of cash' to allow analysis of these companies. A company like NTES has the ability to pay off debt (if it has any) or acquire other companies. Most importantly, good operations generate cash.


INVENTORY TO SALES: PASS

This methodology strongly believes that companies, especially small ones, should have tight control over inventory. It's a warning sign if a company's inventory relative to sales increases significantly when compared to the previous year. Up to a 30% increase is allowed, but no more. Inventory to Sales for NTES was 3.59% last year, while for this year it is 4.13%. Although the inventory to sales is rising, it is below the max 30% that is allowed. The investor can still consider the stock if all other criteria appear very attractive.


ACCOUNT RECEIVABLE TO SALES: PASS

This methodology wants to make sure that a company's accounts receivable do not get significantly out of line with sales. It's a warning sign if a company's accounts receivable relative to sales increases significantly when compared to the previous year. Up to a 30% increase is allowed, but no more. Accounts Receivable to Sales for NTES was 12.92% last year, while for this year it is 12.56%. Since the AR to sales is decreasing by -0.36% the stock passes this criterion.


LONG TERM DEBT/EQUITY RATIO: PASS

NTES's trailing twelve-month Debt/Equity ratio (0.00%) is at a great level according to this methodology because the superior companies that you are looking for don't need to borrow money in order to grow.


"THE FOOL RATIO" (P/E TO GROWTH): PASS

The "Fool Ratio" is an extremely important aspect of this analysis. If the company's Fool Ratio is between 0.5 and 0.65 (NTES's is 0.57), the company demonstrates excellence in its fundamentals and have soundly beat the earnings estimates. NTES passes this test.

The following criteria for NTES are less important which means you would place less emphasis on them when making your investment decision using this strategy:

AVERAGE SHARES OUTSTANDING: PASS

NTES has not been significantly increasing the number of shares outstanding within recent years which is a good sign. NTES currently has 133.0 million shares outstanding. This means the company is not taking any measures, with regards to the number of shares, that will dilute or devalue the stock.


SALES: FAIL

Companies with sales less than $500 million should be chosen. It is among these small-cap stocks that investors can find "an uncut gem", ones that institutions won't be able to buy yet. NTES's sales of $6,606.1 million based on trailing 12 month sales, are too high and would therefore fail the test. It is companies with $500 million or less in sales that are most likely to double or triple in size in the next few years.


DAILY DOLLAR VOLUME: FAIL

NTES does not pass the Daily Dollar Volume (DDV of $377.5 million) test. It exceeds the maximum requirement of $25 million. Stocks that fail the test are too liquid for a small individual investor and many institutions have already discovered it.


PRICE: PASS

This is a very insignificant criterion for this methodology. But basically, low prices are chosen because "small numbers multiply more rapidly than large ones" and the potential for big returns expands. NTES with a price of $284.25 passes the price test, even though it doesn't fall in the preferred range. The price should be above $7 in order to eliminate penny stocks and below $20 since most stocks in this price range are undiscovered by the institutions.


INCOME TAX PERCENTAGE: FAIL

NTES's income tax paid expressed as a percentage of pretax income either this year (15.13%) or last year (15.70%) is below 20% which is cause for concern. Because the tax rate is below 20% this could mean that the earnings that were reported are unrealistically inflated due to the lower level of income tax paid. However, we have utilized a sophisticated formula so that the appropriate figures reflect a 'normal' tax rate (35%).


BANCO MACRO SA (ADR)

Strategy: Patient Investor
Based on: Warren Buffett

Banco Macro SA is an Argnetina-based financial institution (the Bank) that offers traditional bank products and services to companies, including those operating in regional economies, as well as to individuals. In addition, the Bank performs certain transactions through its subsidiaries, including mainly Banco del Tucuman, Macro Bank Ltd, Macro Securities SA, Macro Fiducia SA and Macro Fondos SGFCI SA. It has approximately two categories of customers, such as retail customers, including individuals and entrepreneurs and corporate customers, which include small, medium and large companies and major corporations. In addition, it provides services to over four provincial governments. It provides its corporate customers with traditional banking products and services, such as deposits, lending (including overdraft facilities), check cashing advances and factoring, guaranteed loans and credit lines for financing foreign trade and cash management services.

STAGE 1: "Is this a Buffett type company?"

A bedrock principle for Buffett is that his type of company has a "durable competitive advantage" as compared to being a "price competitive" or "commodity" type of business. Companies with a "durable competitive advantage" are more likely to be found in these sub-industries: Brand Name Fast Food Restaurants, Brand Name Beverages, Brand Name Foods, Brand Name Toiletries and Household Products, Brand Name Clothing, Brand Name Prescription Drugs, Advertising, Advertising Agencies, TV, Newspapers, Magazines, Direct Mail, Repetitive Services for Businesses, Low Cost Producers of Insurance, furniture, or Low Cost Retailers. While you should be easily able to explain where the company's pricing power comes from (i.e. a strong regional brand image, a business tollgate, its main products are #1 or # 2 in its field and has been on the market for years and hasn't changed at all, a consumer or business ends up buying the same product many times in a year, etc. or having the lowest production cost among its competition), there are certain figures that one can look at that can qualify the company as having a durable competitive advantage.


LOOK FOR EARNINGS PREDICTABILITY: PASS

Buffett likes companies to have solid, stable earnings that are continually expanding. This allows him to accurately predict future earnings. Annual earnings per share from earliest to most recent were 0.03, 0.05, 0.09, 0.08, 0.11, 0.15, 0.23, 0.34, 0.48, 0.63. Buffett would consider BMA's earnings predictable, although earnings have declined 1 time(s) in the past seven years, with the most recent decline 7 years ago. The dips have totaled 11.1%. BMA's long term historical EPS growth rate is 35.6%, based on the 10 year average EPS growth rate, and it is expected to grow earnings 17.1% per year in the future, based on the analysts' consensus estimated long term growth rate. For the purposes of our analysis, we will use the more conservative of the two EPS growth numbers.


LOOK FOR CONSISTENTLY HIGHER THAN AVERAGE RETURN ON EQUITY: PASS

Buffett likes companies with above average return on equity of at least 15% or better, as this is an indicator that the company has a durable competitive advantage. US corporations have, on average, returned about 12% on equity over the last 30 years. The average ROE for BMA, over the last ten years, is 25.2%, which is high enough to pass. It is not enough that the average be at least 15%. For each of the last 10 years, with the possible exception of the last fiscal year, the ROE must be at least 10% for Buffett to feel comfortable that the ROE is consistent. In addition, the average ROE over the last 3 years must also exceed 15%. The ROE for the last 10 years, from earliest to latest, is 14.1%, 22.8%, 28.9%, 20.4%, 24.3%, 24.4%, 27.9%, 29.7%, 31.0%, 29.0%, and the average ROE over the last 3 years is 29.9%, thus passing this criterion.


LOOK FOR CONSISTENTLY HIGHER THAN AVERAGE RETURN ON ASSETS: PASS

Buffett also requires, for financial companies, that the average Return On Assets (ROA) be at least 1% and consistent. Return On Assets is defined as the net earnings of the business divided by the total assets of the business. The average ROA for BMA, over the last ten years, is 3.4%, which is high enough to pass. It is not enough that the average be at least 1%. For each of the last 10 years, with the possible exception of the last fiscal year, the ROA must be at least 1% for Buffett to feel comfortable that the ROA is consistent. The ROA for the last 10 years, from earliest to latest, is 1.9%, 2.9%, 3.6%, 2.5%, 2.8%, 3.1%, 4.1%, 4.6%, 4.7%, 4.1%, thus passing this criterion.


LOOK AT CAPITAL EXPENDITURES: PASS

Buffett likes companies that do not have major capital expenditures. That is, he looks for companies that do not need to spend a ton of money on major upgrades of plant and equipment or on research and development to stay competitive. BMA's free cash flow per share of $10.89 is positive, indicating that the company is generating more cash that it is consuming. This is a favorable sign, and so the company passes this criterion.


LOOK AT MANAGEMENT'S USE OF RETAINED EARNINGS: PASS

Buffett likes to see if management has spent retained earnings in a way that benefits shareholders. To figure this out, Buffett takes the total amount of retained earnings over the previous ten years of $1.93 and compares it to the gain in EPS over the same period of $0.60. BMA's management has proven it can earn shareholders a 31.0% return on the earnings they kept. This return is more than acceptable to Buffett. Essentially, management is doing a great job putting the retained earnings to work.


HAS THE COMPANY BEEN BUYING BACK SHARES: BONUS PASS

Buffett likes to see falling shares outstanding, which indicates that the company has been repurchasing shares. This indicates that management has been using excess capital to increase shareholder value. BMA's shares outstanding have fallen over the past five years from 573,250,000 to 58,000,000, thus passing this criterion. This is a bonus criterion and will not adversely affect the ability of a stock to pass the strategy as a whole if it is failed.

The preceding concludes Buffett's qualitative analysis. If and when he gets positive responses to all the above criteria, he would then proceed with a price analysis. The price analysis will determine whether or not the stock should be bought. The following is how he would evaluate BMA quantitatively.

STAGE 2: "Should I buy at this price?" Although a firm may be a Buffett type company, he won't invest in it unless he can get a favorable price that allows him a great long term return.


CALCULATE THE INITIAL RATE OF RETURN: [No Pass/Fail]

Buffett compares his type of stocks to bonds, and likes to see what a company's initial rate of return is. To calculate the initial rate of return, take the trailing 12-month EPS of $6.67 and divide it by the current market price of $84.21. An investor, purchasing BMA, could expect to receive a 7.92% initial rate of return. Furthermore, he or she could expect the rate to increase 17.1% per year, based on the analysts' consensus estimated long term growth rate, as this is how fast earnings are growing.


COMPARE THE INITIAL RATE OF RETURN WITH THE LONG-TERM TREASURY YIELD: PASS

Buffett favors companies in which the initial rate of return is around the long-term treasury yield. Nonetheless, he has invested in companies with low initial rates of return, as long as the yield is expected to expand rapidly. Currently, the long-term treasury yield is about 2.25%. Compare this with BMA's initial yield of 7.92%, which will expand at an annual rate of 17.1%, based on the analysts' consensus estimated long term growth rate. The company is the better choice, as the initial rate of return is close to or above the long term bond yield and is expanding.


CALCULATE THE FUTURE EPS: [No Pass/Fail]

BMA currently has a book value of $23.07. It is safe to say that if BMA can preserve its average rate of return on equity of 25.2% and continues to retain 84.30% of its earnings, it will be able to sustain an earnings growth rate of 21.3% and it will have a book value of $158.60 in ten years. If it can still earn 25.2% on equity in ten years, then expected EPS will be $40.00.


CALCULATE THE FUTURE STOCK PRICE BASED ON THE AVERAGE ROE METHOD: [No Pass/Fail]

Now take the expected future EPS of $40.00 and multiply them by the lower of the 5 year average P/E ratio or current P/E ratio (12.6) (5 year average P/E in this case), which is 7.4 and you get BMA's projected future stock price of $294.81.


CALCULATE THE EXPECTED RATE OF RETURN BASED ON THE AVERAGE ROE METHOD: [No Pass/Fail]

Now add in the total expected dividend pool to be paid over the next ten years, which is $27.64. This gives you a total dollar amount of $322.45. These numbers indicate that one could expect to make a 14.4% average annual return on BMA's stock at the present time. Although, the return is slightly below the liking of Buffett, the return would still be somewhat acceptable.


CALCULATE THE EXPECTED FUTURE STOCK PRICE BASED ON AVERAGE EPS GROWTH: [No Pass/Fail]

If you take the EPS growth of 17.1%, based on the analysts' consensus estimated long term growth rate, you can project EPS in ten years to be $32.42. Now multiply EPS in 10 years by the lower of the 5 year average P/E ratio or current P/E ratio (12.6) (5 year average P/E in this case), which is 7.4. This equals the future stock price of $238.93. Add in the total expected dividend pool of $27.64 to get a total dollar amount of $266.57.


CALCULATE THE EXPECTED RETURN USING THE AVERAGE EPS GROWTH METHOD: [No Pass/Fail]

Now you can figure out your expected return based on a current price of $84.21 and the future expected stock price, including the dividend pool, of $266.57. If you were to invest in BMA at this time, you could expect a 12.21% average annual return on your money. Buffett likes to see a 15% return, but nonetheless would accept this return.


LOOK AT THE RANGE OF EXPECTED RATE OF RETURN: PASS

Based on the two different methods, you could expect an annual compounding rate of return somewhere between 12.2% and 14.4%. To pinpoint the average return a little better, we have taken an average of the two different methods. Investors could expect an average return of 13.3% on BMA stock for the next ten years, based on the current fundamentals. Buffett likes to see a 15% return, but nonetheless would accept this return, thus passing the criterion.


WALKER & DUNLOP, INC.

Strategy: Small-Cap Growth Investor
Based on: Motley Fool

Walker & Dunlop, Inc. is a holding company, which conducts its operations through Walker & Dunlop, LLC. The Company provides commercial real estate financial products and services primarily to developers and owners of multifamily properties. The Company originates, sells and services a range of multifamily and other commercial real estate financing products, including Multifamily Finance, Federal Housing Administration (FHA) Finance, Capital Markets, and Proprietary Capital. It originates and sells loans through the programs of the Federal National Mortgage Association (Fannie Mae), the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation (Freddie Mac, and together with Fannie Mae, the government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs)), the Government National Mortgage Association (Ginnie Mae) and the Federal Housing Administration, a division of the United States Department of Housing and Urban Development (together with Ginnie Mae, HUD).


PROFIT MARGIN: PASS

This methodology seeks companies with a minimum trailing 12 month after tax profit margin of 7%. The companies that pass this criterion have strong positions within their respective industries and offer greater shareholder returns. A true test of the quality of a company is that they can sustain this margin. WD's profit margin of 21.95% passes this test.


RELATIVE STRENGTH: PASS

The investor must look at the relative strength of the company in question. Companies whose relative strength is 90 or above (that is, the company outperforms 90% or more of the market for the past year), are considered attractive. Companies whose price has been rising much quicker than the market tend to keep rising. WD, with a relative strength of 90, satisfies this test.


COMPARE SALES AND EPS GROWTH TO THE SAME PERIOD LAST YEAR: FAIL

Companies must demonstrate both revenue and net income growth of at least 25% as compared to the prior year. These growth rates give you the dynamic companies that you are looking for. These rates for WD (2.86% for EPS, and 12.55% for Sales) are not good enough to pass.


INSIDER HOLDINGS: FAIL

WD's insiders should own at least 10% (they own 8.76%) of the company's outstanding shares. This does not satisfy the minimum requirement, and companies that do not pass this criteria are less attractive.


CASH FLOW FROM OPERATIONS: PASS

A positive cash flow is typically used for internal expansion, acquisitions, dividend payments, etc. A company that generates rather than consumes cash is in much better shape to fund such activities on their own, rather than needing to borrow funds to do so. WD's free cash flow of $24.28 per share passes this test.


PROFIT MARGIN CONSISTENCY: PASS

WD's profit margin has been consistent or even increasing over the past three years (Current year: 19.80%, Last year: 17.54%, Two years ago: 14.25%), passing the requirement. It is a sign of good management and a healthy and competitive enterprise.


R&D AS A PERCENTAGE OF SALES: NEUTRAL

This criterion is not critically important for companies that are not high-tech or medical stocks because they are not as R&D dependant as companies within those sectors. Not much emphasis should be placed on this test in WD's case.


CASH AND CASH EQUIVALENTS: FAIL

WD's level of cash and cash equivalents per sales, 18.05 %, does not pass this criteria of roughly 20%(a number we determined to be appropriate based on various examples). WD will have a more difficult time paying off debt (if it has any) or acquiring other companies than a company that passes this criteria.


ACCOUNT RECEIVABLE TO SALES: PASS

This methodology wants to make sure that a company's accounts receivable do not get significantly out of line with sales. It's a warning sign if a company's accounts receivable relative to sales increases significantly when compared to the previous year. Up to a 30% increase is allowed, but no more. Accounts Receivable to Sales for WD was 5.09% last year, while for this year it is 5.12%. Since the AR to sales has been flat, WD passes this test.


"THE FOOL RATIO" (P/E TO GROWTH): PASS

The "Fool Ratio" is an extremely important aspect of this analysis. If the company has attractive fundamentals and its Fool Ratio is 0.5 or less (WD's is 0.34), the shares are looked upon favorably. These high quality companies can often wind up as the biggest winners. WD passes this test.

The following criteria for WD are less important which means you would place less emphasis on them when making your investment decision using this strategy:

AVERAGE SHARES OUTSTANDING: PASS

WD has not been significantly increasing the number of shares outstanding within recent years which is a good sign. WD currently has 32.0 million shares outstanding. This means the company is not taking any measures, with regards to the number of shares, that will dilute or devalue the stock.


SALES: FAIL

Companies with sales less than $500 million should be chosen. It is among these small-cap stocks that investors can find "an uncut gem", ones that institutions won't be able to buy yet. WD's sales of $658.1 million based on trailing 12 month sales, are too high and would therefore fail the test. It is companies with $500 million or less in sales that are most likely to double or triple in size in the next few years.


DAILY DOLLAR VOLUME: PASS

WD passes the Daily Dollar Volume (DDV of $10.1 million) test. It is required that this number be less than $25 million because these are the stocks that remain relatively undiscovered by institutions. "You'll be scoring touchdowns against the big guys on your turf."


PRICE: PASS

This is a very insignificant criterion for this methodology. But basically, low prices are chosen because "small numbers multiply more rapidly than large ones" and the potential for big returns expands. WD with a price of $46.24 passes the price test, even though it doesn't fall in the preferred range. The price should be above $7 in order to eliminate penny stocks and below $20 since most stocks in this price range are undiscovered by the institutions.


INCOME TAX PERCENTAGE: PASS

WD's income tax paid expressed as a percentage of pretax income this year was (38.47%) and last year (38.98%) are greater than 20% which is an acceptable level. If the tax rate is below 20% this could mean that the earnings that were reported were unrealistically inflated due to the lower level of income tax paid. This is a concern.


EVERCORE PARTNERS INC.

Strategy: P/E/Growth Investor
Based on: Peter Lynch

Evercore Partners Inc. is an independent investment banking advisory company. The Company operates through two business segments: Investment Banking and Investment Management. The Company's Investment Banking segment includes its Advisory services, through which Evercore provides advice to clients on mergers, acquisitions, divestitures and other strategic corporate transactions, with a particular focus on advising multinational corporations and private equity firms on various transactions. Its Investment Management segment focuses on Institutional Asset Management, through which Evercore manages financial assets for institutional investors and provide independent fiduciary services to corporate employee benefit plans; Wealth Management, through which it provides wealth management services for high-net-worth individuals, and Private Equity, through which it manages private equity funds. Private Equity holds interests in entities that manage middle-market private equity funds in Mexico.


DETERMINE THE CLASSIFICATION:

This methodology would consider EVR a "fast-grower".


P/E/GROWTH RATIO: PASS

The investor should examine the P/E (19.47) relative to the growth rate (31.52%), based on the average of the 3, 4 and 5 year historical eps growth rates, for a company. This is a quick way of determining the fairness of the price. In this particular case, the P/E/G ratio for EVR (0.62) makes it favorable.


SALES AND P/E RATIO: PASS

For companies with sales greater than $1 billion, this methodology likes to see that the P/E ratio remain below 40. Large companies can have a difficult time maintaining a growth high enough to support a P/E above this threshold. EVR, whose sales are $1,608.5 million, needs to have a P/E below 40 to pass this criterion. EVR's P/E of (19.47) is considered acceptable.


EPS GROWTH RATE: PASS

This methodology favors companies that have several years of fast earnings growth, as these companies have a proven formula for growth that in many cases can continue many more years. This methodology likes to see earnings growth in the range of 20% to 50%, as earnings growth over 50% may be unsustainable. The EPS growth rate for EVR is 31.5%, based on the average of the 3, 4 and 5 year historical eps growth rates, which is acceptable.


TOTAL DEBT/EQUITY RATIO: NEUTRAL

EVR is a financial company so debt to equity rules are not applied to determine the company's financial soundness.


EQUITY/ASSETS RATIO: PASS

This methodology uses the Equity/Assets Ratio as a way to determine a financial intermediary's health, as it is a better measure than the Debt/Equity Ratio. EVR's Equity/Assets ratio (32.00%) is extremely healthy and above the minimum 5% this methodology looks for, thus passing the criterion.


RETURN ON ASSETS: PASS

This methodology uses Return on Assets as a way to measure a financial intermediary's profitability. EVR's ROA (16.52%) is above the minimum 1% that this methodology looks for, thus passing the criterion.


FREE CASH FLOW: NEUTRAL

The Free Cash Flow/Price ratio, though not a requirement, is considered a bonus if it is above 35%. A positive Cash Flow (the higher the better) separates a wonderfully reliable investment from a shaky one. This methodology prefers not to invest in companies that rely heavily on capital spending. This ratio for EVR (10.22%) is too low to add to the attractiveness of the stock. Keep in mind, however, that it does not adversely affect the company as it is a bonus criteria.


NET CASH POSITION: NEUTRAL

Another bonus for a company is having a Net Cash/Price ratio above 30%. Lynch defines net cash as cash and marketable securities minus long term debt. According to this methodology, a high value for this ratio dramatically cuts down on the risk of the security. The Net Cash/Price ratio for EVR (13.42%) is too low to add to the attractiveness of this company. Keep in mind, however, that it does not adversely affect the company as it is a bonus criteria.



Watch List

The top scoring stocks not currently in the Hot List portfolio.

Ticker Company Name Current
Score
ESNT ESSENT GROUP LTD 68%
FRAN FRANCESCA'S HOLDINGS CORP 66%
IPGP IPG PHOTONICS CORPORATION 62%
SNC STATE NATIONAL COMPANIES INC 62%
CIM CHIMERA INVESTMENT CORPORATION 60%
MNST MONSTER BEVERAGE CORP 60%
KNSL KINSALE CAPITAL GROUP INC 60%
GGAL GRUPO FINANCIERO GALICIA S.A. (ADR) 59%
EGOV NIC INC. 56%
MAN MANPOWERGROUP INC. 55%



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