Economy and Markets

For the week ended April 10th, the S&P 500 dipped slightly (0.24%) to 2356 while the Dow 30 remained stable at 20656. Since the S&P 500 reached an all-time high on March 1st, U.S. stocks have stalled and inched lower, with financials leading the decrease (down by 0.9%), followed closely by consumer discretionary and tech (down by 0.8% and 0.5%, respectively). These dips were offset in part by gains in real estate (0.7%) and energy (0.6%), as well as minimal growth in materials, utilities and consumer staples. The Nasdaq dipped by 0.55% to 5878. Small-cap stocks, which had left their large-cap brethren behind in the wake of last November's election, have suffered a reversal, and investors are showing a renewed focus on growth over value stocks.

A dichotomy has evolved with respect to investor sentiment. The Consumer Confidence Index, which had improved slightly in February, rose sharply in March (from 116.1 to 125.6), to its highest level since December 2000 (data provided by the Conference Board), indicating continued optimism regarding economic conditions. At the same time, however, reality seems to be setting in concerning how much of President Trump's agenda will actually come to fruition. Disappointment associated with the failed healthcare vote has been followed by increasing doubts around the tax reform agenda. Tough trade war talk has also been dialed back after the president's recent meeting with Chinese president Xi. Ongoing geopolitical issues, led by tension with North Korea, add another layer of complexity.

Revised figures from the Bureau of Economic Analysis reflect GDP growth of 2.1% for Q4 2016. In March, the U.S added 98,000 jobs, a lackluster showing compared to the 235,000 jobs created in February. Still, unemployment fell to 4.5%, reflecting a larger labor force.

Even though consumer optimism is high, U.S. retail sales fell for a second straight month in March and consumer prices dropped for the first time in just over a year, pointing to decreased economic growth momentum in the first quarter. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers decreased by 0.3% in March after inching up by 0.1% in February. There have been some pockets of strength in retail, however. Electronics and appliance store sales recorded their biggest rise since June 2015, and receipts at clothing stores increased by the most in a year, despite declining mall traffic and increased competition from online retailers.

Mortgage applications for new home purchases increased by 6.7% in March compared to one year ago. Compared to February 2017, applications rose by 23%.

The P/E ratio for the S&P 500 of 24.45 (as of April 13th) is up slightly from one year ago (23.62). The market looks expensive based on most traditional valuation metrics.

Performance Update

Since our last newsletter, the S&P 500 returned -0.1%, while the Hot List returned 3.9%. So far in 2016, the portfolio has returned 11.8% vs. 5.2% for the S&P. Since its inception in July 2003, the Hot List is far outpacing the index, having gained 246.2% vs. the S&P's 135.5% gain.

Recommended Reading

In our popular Validea Guru Investor blog, we provide current news and market data that we believe is relevant and useful to investors. In each Hot List newsletter, we will highlight recent items posted since the last newsletter:

  • Small Cap Stocks Losing Earnings Steam: Read Full Post
  • Factor Investing Can Keep Active Management Relevant: The future of active management lies in keeping fees down. Read Full Post
  • Small-Cap Picks for the Long Term: The cooling of the small-cap rally could present opportunity. Read Full Post
  • Stock-Pickers Beware: Bots Are Here: Read Full Post
  • Male Stock Analysts Show Bias Toward Companies Run By Men: Read Full Post
  • Bob Doll Says Economy Presents Risk to Stocks: The current economic landscape could pose problems for the stock market. Read Full Post
  • Ritholtz Says Stock-Picking is Alive if Not Kicking: Read Full Post


James O'Shaughnessy's Warning Against Headline Investing

James O'Shaughnessy is an investment guru who sticks to the numbers, focusing on cold, hard facts and steering clear of hype and glamor when evaluating opportunities. He casts aside subjective factors such as analysts' reports, economic trends and media reports that can lead to emotional (and ill-advised) investment decisions--a strategy that has been highly successful over the long term. By conducting one of the most in-depth quantitative stock market studies in history, O'Shaughnessy was able to back-test dozens of stock-picking approaches over a period spanning more than four decades (from the early 1950s to the mid-1990s). Using this data, O'Shaughnessy constructed a "United Cornerstone" strategy, a combination of both a growth and a value approach. Together, these approaches averaged a compound return of 17.1% from 1954 through 1996 (compared to the S&P 500's 11.5% during that period) while maintaining relatively low levels of risk. Each strategy starts with a simple market capitalization screen: The Value model looks for bigger stocks (market cap of over $1 billion) while the Growth model allows smaller companies (market cap of at least $150 million) to screen out illiquid shares. Both models also look at the number of shares outstanding (preferring numbers exceeding the market mean) and target healthy cash flow. Other key metrics include price-sales ratio, which O'Shaughnessy considers one of the best indications of value, and dividend yield.

Today, Connecticut-based O'Shaughnessy Asset Management oversees approximately $5.3 billion in assets. Since its inception in 2003, our portfolio based on O'Shaughnessy's investment strategy has returned 213.2%, outperforming the market by 79%. In 2016, this portfolio returned 19.8% versus 9.5% for the S&P 500.

During a recent talk at Google, the legendary investor told a cautionary stock market tale.

The story centered around his highly-intelligent, "switched-on" friend Art, who would become extremely reactive when the market rose, call O'Shaughnessy and instruct him to go "all in" on his most aggressive strategy-one which would have done well over the prior several years. O'Shaughnessy (founder of the asset management firm bearing his name) would advise his friend against the move, but to no avail. At which point, O'Shaughnessy recalled, "I would hang up the phone, get on the speaker so that everyone in the office could hear and say, 'We've just called a market top.'"

Art became a bellwether, a contrary indicator supporting the notion that, when it comes to investing, going against the herd mentality is a more prudent course. O'Shaughnessy, author of the stock market tome What Works on Wall Street, underscored the unfortunate yet predictable outcome of his friend's approach, who applied his knee-jerk tack only with" his own investments, not those he made for his children. "Five to seven years later, " O'Shaughnessy asserted, "the kids were much richer."

While not unusual, the tale of "Art the Contrary Indicator" rarely ends well. Emotional investing will get you into trouble since, typically, by the time you want to buy in most of the easy gains have been made and, conversely, once you decide to sell most of the damage has been done. "We just can't help ourselves," says O'Shaughnessy. Human nature, he argues, leads us to predict, a tendency difficult to overcome and a recipe for trouble when shopping for stocks. It also conditions us to bolt when faced with fear or uncertainty. Back when the writing was literally on the wall, "the guy who ran away from the rustling bush," argues O'Shaughnessy, was the one who survived and continued to evolve.

When it comes to buying stocks, it is essential for investors to value process over outcome, to understand the concrete facts about the stocks that they (or their fund manager) are choosing to purchase and the basis for their appeal. Underlying fundamentals, not headlines, lead to good investing decisions.

"We live in a world where people believe more in possibilities than in probabilities," O'Shaughnessy told his audience. For an investor, probability is the more meaningful aspect. And to properly evaluate it, says the guru investor, "you want to see a lot of data."

News About Hot List Stocks

Sanderson Farms (SAFM) is engaged in the production, processing, marketing and distribution of fresh and frozen chicken. The company recently announced it has signed an agreement to process chickens grown by the House of Raeford Farms, a privately held company headquartered in Rose Hill, North Carolina, through December 2017. SAFM estimates additional volume of processed pounds generated will total 20.4 million pounds in its third fiscal quarter of 2017 and 26.3 million pounds in its fourth fiscal quarter of 2017.

NIC Inc. (EGOV) is a provider of digital services that help governments use technology to provide services to businesses and citizens. The company's CEO, Harry Herington, was recently honored by Government Technology magazine as one of its "Top 25 Doers, Dreamers & Drivers" of 2017. The award recognizes individuals in the digital government field who demonstrate that innovative technology use can transform government operations, dramatically improve citizen engagement, and enhance service delivery.

Foot Locker (FL) is a retailer of shoes and apparel that has posted positive earnings surprise for the third straight quarter despite an overall sluggish retail sales environment. The company's strong comp sales, cost reductions and strategic initiatives have led to year-over-year growth in both revenue and earnings.

Corning Incorporated (GLW) is engaged in manufacturing specialty glass and ceramics. Last week, PrecisionHawk, a provider of advanced commercial drone technologies, announced it will collaborate with the company to sell the Corning microHSI 410-SHARK hyperspectral camera coupled with PrecisionHawk's platform for collection and analysis of drone data.


Portfolio Holdings
Ticker Date Added Return
WD 3/10/2017 6.3%
ESNT 4/7/2017 5.5%
CIM 3/10/2017 6.5%
BMA 7/1/2016 15.6%
SAFM 11/18/2016 37.4%
EGOV 3/10/2017 0.7%
FL 4/7/2017 5.9%
GLW 4/7/2017 1.1%
FIZZ 4/7/2017 6.1%
AEIS 3/10/2017 6.7%


Guru Analysis
Disclaimer: The analysis is from Validea's selection and interpretation of content from the guru's book or published writings, and is not from nor endorsed by the guru. See Full Disclaimer

WD   |   ESNT   |   CIM   |   BMA   |   SAFM   |   EGOV   |   FL   |   GLW   |   FIZZ   |   AEIS   |  

WALKER & DUNLOP, INC.

Strategy: Contrarian Investor
Based on: David Dreman

Walker & Dunlop, Inc. is a holding company, which conducts its operations through Walker & Dunlop, LLC. The Company provides commercial real estate financial products and services primarily to developers and owners of multifamily properties. The Company originates, sells and services a range of multifamily and other commercial real estate financing products, including Multifamily Finance, Federal Housing Administration (FHA) Finance, Capital Markets, and Proprietary Capital. It originates and sells loans through the programs of the Federal National Mortgage Association (Fannie Mae), the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation (Freddie Mac, and together with Fannie Mae, the government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs)), the Government National Mortgage Association (Ginnie Mae) and the Federal Housing Administration, a division of the United States Department of Housing and Urban Development (together with Ginnie Mae, HUD).

MARKET CAP: FAIL

Medium to large-sized companies (the largest 1500 companies) should be chosen, because they are more in the public eye. Furthermore, the investor is exposed to less risk of "accounting gimmickry", and companies of this size have more staying power. WD has a market cap of $1,358 million, therefore failing the test.


EARNINGS TREND: PASS

A company should show a rising trend in the reported earnings for the most recent quarters. WD's EPS for the past 2 quarters, (from earliest to most recent quarter) 0.96, 1.13 have been increasing, and therefore the company passes this test.


EPS GROWTH RATE IN THE IMMEDIATE PAST AND FUTURE: FAIL

This methodology likes to see companies with an EPS growth rate higher than the S&P in the immediate past and a likelihood that this trend will continue in the near future. WD fails this test as its EPS growth rate for the past 6 months (7.61%) does not beat that of the S&P (9.97%).


This methodology would utilize four separate criteria to determine if WD is a contrarian stock. In order to eliminate weak companies we have stipulated that the stock should pass at least two of the following four major criteria in order to receive "Some Interest".


P/E RATIO: PASS

The P/E of a company should be in the bottom 20% of the overall market. WD's P/E of 11.92, based on trailing 12 month earnings, meets the bottom 20% criterion (below 13.49), and therefore passes this test.


PRICE/CASH FLOW (P/CF) RATIO: PASS

The P/CF of a company should be in the bottom 20% of the overall market. WD's P/CF of 6.02 meets the bottom 20% criterion (below 7.72) and therefore passes this test.


PRICE/BOOK (P/B) VALUE: FAIL

The P/B value of a company should be in the bottom 20% of the overall market. WD's P/B is currently 2.10, which does not meet the bottom 20% criterion (below 1.06), and it therefore fails this test.


PRICE/DIVIDEND (P/D) RATIO: FAIL

The P/D ratio for a company should be in the bottom 20% of the overall market (that is the yield should be in the top 20%). WD's P/D is not available, and hence an opinion cannot be rendered at this time.


This methodology maintains that investors should look for as many healthy financial ratios as possible to ascertain the financial strength of the company. These criteria are detailed below.


PAYOUT RATIO: PASS

A good indicator that a company has the ability to raise its dividend is a low payout ratio. The payout ratio for WD is 0.00%. Unfortunately, its historical payout ratio is not available. Nonetheless it passes the payout criterion, as this is a very low payout.


RETURN ON EQUITY: PASS

The company should have a high ROE, as this helps to ensure that there are no structural flaws in the company. This methodology feels that the ROE should be greater than the top one third of ROE from among the top 1500 large cap stocks, which is 16.06%, and would consider anything over 27% to be staggering. The ROE for WD of 20.74% is high enough to pass this criterion.


PRE-TAX PROFIT MARGINS: PASS

This methodology looks for pre-tax profit margins of at least 8%, and considers anything over 22% to be phenomenal. WD's pre-tax profit margin is 32.29%, thus passing this criterion.


YIELD: FAIL

The company in question should have a yield that is high and that can be maintained or increased. WD's current yield is not available (or one is not paid) at the present time, while the market yield is 2.64%. Hence, this criterion cannot be evaluated.


ESSENT GROUP LTD

Strategy: Small-Cap Growth Investor
Based on: Motley Fool

Essent Group Ltd. is a private mortgage insurance company. The Company is engaged in offering private mortgage insurance and reinsurance for mortgages secured by residential properties located in the United States. Its products and services include mortgage insurance, contract underwriting, and Bermuda-based insurance and reinsurance. The Company's primary mortgage insurance is offered to customers on individual loans at the time of origination on a flow basis, but can also be written in bulk transactions. Its pool insurance provides additional credit enhancement for certain secondary market and other mortgage transactions. The primary mortgage insurance operations were conducted through Essent Guaranty, Inc. which is a mortgage insurer licensed to write mortgage insurance in all 50 states and the District of Columbia, as of December 31, 2016. It offers primary mortgage insurance, pool insurance and master policy. It provides contract underwriting services through CUW Solutions, LLC.


PROFIT MARGIN: PASS

This methodology seeks companies with a minimum trailing 12 month after tax profit margin of 7%. The companies that pass this criterion have strong positions within their respective industries and offer greater shareholder returns. A true test of the quality of a company is that they can sustain this margin. ESNT's profit margin of 48.58% passes this test.


RELATIVE STRENGTH: PASS

The investor must look at the relative strength of the company in question. Companies whose relative strength is 90 or above (that is, the company outperforms 90% or more of the market for the past year), are considered attractive. Companies whose price has been rising much quicker than the market tend to keep rising. ESNT, with a relative strength of 92, satisfies this test.


COMPARE SALES AND EPS GROWTH TO THE SAME PERIOD LAST YEAR: PASS

Companies must demonstrate both revenue and net income growth of at least 25% as compared to the prior year. These growth rates give you the dynamic companies that you are looking for. These rates for ESNT (41.67% for EPS, and 29.64% for Sales) are good enough to pass.


INSIDER HOLDINGS: PASS

ESNT's insiders should own at least 10% (they own 18.85% ) of the company's outstanding shares which is the minimum required. A high percentage typically indicates that the insiders are confident that the company will do well.


CASH FLOW FROM OPERATIONS: PASS

A positive cash flow is typically used for internal expansion, acquisitions, dividend payments, etc. A company that generates rather than consumes cash is in much better shape to fund such activities on their own, rather than needing to borrow funds to do so. ESNT's free cash flow of $2.93 per share passes this test.


PROFIT MARGIN CONSISTENCY: PASS

ESNT's profit margin has been consistent or even increasing over the past three years (Current year: 48.58%, Last year: 44.53%, Two years ago: 36.96%), passing the requirement. It is a sign of good management and a healthy and competitive enterprise.


R&D AS A PERCENTAGE OF SALES: NEUTRAL

This criterion is not critically important for companies that are not high-tech or medical stocks because they are not as R&D dependant as companies within those sectors. Not much emphasis should be placed on this test in ESNT's case.


CASH AND CASH EQUIVALENTS: FAIL

ESNT does not have a sufficiently large amount of cash, $27.53 million, on hand relative to its size. Although this criteria does not apply to companies of this size, we defined anything greater than $500 million in cash as having 'a lot of cash' to allow analysis of these companies. ESNT will have more of a difficult time paying off debt (if it has any) or acquiring other companies than a company that passes this criterion.


"THE FOOL RATIO" (P/E TO GROWTH): FAIL

The "Fool Ratio" is an extremely important aspect of this analysis. The methodology says consider holding the shares when the company's Fool Ratio is greater than 0.65 (ESNT's is 0.87), but initial purchases in this range are unfavorable.

The following criteria for ESNT are less important which means you would place less emphasis on them when making your investment decision using this strategy:

AVERAGE SHARES OUTSTANDING: PASS

ESNT has not been significantly increasing the number of shares outstanding within recent years which is a good sign. ESNT currently has 93.0 million shares outstanding. This means the company is not taking any measures, with regards to the number of shares, that will dilute or devalue the stock.


SALES: PASS

Companies with sales less than $500 million should be chosen. It is among these small-cap stocks that investors can find "an uncut gem", ones that institutions won't be able to buy yet. ESNT's sales of $458.3 million based on trailing 12 month sales, are fine, making this company one such "prospective gem". ESNT passes the sales test.


DAILY DOLLAR VOLUME: FAIL

ESNT does not pass the Daily Dollar Volume (DDV of $26.9 million) test. It exceeds the maximum requirement of $25 million. Stocks that fail the test are too liquid for a small individual investor and many institutions have already discovered it.


PRICE: PASS

This is a very insignificant criterion for this methodology. But basically, low prices are chosen because "small numbers multiply more rapidly than large ones" and the potential for big returns expands. ESNT with a price of $38.64 passes the price test, even though it doesn't fall in the preferred range. The price should be above $7 in order to eliminate penny stocks and below $20 since most stocks in this price range are undiscovered by the institutions.


INCOME TAX PERCENTAGE: PASS

ESNT's income tax paid expressed as a percentage of pretax income this year was (28.63%) and last year (31.12%) are greater than 20% which is an acceptable level. If the tax rate is below 20% this could mean that the earnings that were reported were unrealistically inflated due to the lower level of income tax paid. This is a concern.


CHIMERA INVESTMENT CORPORATION

Strategy: Contrarian Investor
Based on: David Dreman

Chimera Investment Corporation is a real estate investment trust (REIT). The company is engaged in the business of investing in a portfolio of mortgage assets, including agency residential mortgage-backed security (RMBS), non-agency RMBS, agency commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS), residential mortgage loans and real estate related securities. The Company's objective is to provide risk-adjusted returns to its investors over the long-term, primarily through dividends and secondarily through capital appreciation. The Company focuses to achieve this objective by investing in an investment portfolio of RMBS, agency CMBS, residential mortgage loans, commercial mortgage loans, real estate-related securities and various other asset classes. The MBS and real estate-related securities the Company purchases include investment-grade and non-investment grade classes, including the BB-rated, B-rated and non-rated classes. It also invests in investment grade and non-investment grade RMBS.

MARKET CAP: PASS

Medium to large-sized companies (the largest 1500 companies) should be chosen, because they are more in the public eye. Furthermore, the investor is exposed to less risk of "accounting gimmickry", and companies of this size have more staying power. CIM has a market cap of $3,842 million, therefore passing the test.


EARNINGS TREND: PASS

A company should show a rising trend in the reported earnings for the most recent quarters. CIM's EPS for the past 2 quarters, (from earliest to most recent quarter) 0.92, 1.16 have been increasing, and therefore the company passes this test.


EPS GROWTH RATE IN THE IMMEDIATE PAST AND FUTURE: FAIL

This methodology likes to see companies with an EPS growth rate higher than the S&P in the immediate past and a likelihood that this trend will continue in the near future. CIM's EPS growth rate over the past 6 months (197.43%) has beaten that of the S&P (9.97%), but CIM's estimated EPS growth for the current year is (-15.41%) while that of the S&P is (-15.29%), therefore failing this test.


This methodology would utilize four separate criteria to determine if CIM is a contrarian stock. In order to eliminate weak companies we have stipulated that the stock should pass at least two of the following four major criteria in order to receive "Some Interest".


P/E RATIO: PASS

The P/E of a company should be in the bottom 20% of the overall market. CIM's P/E of 7.00, based on trailing 12 month earnings, meets the bottom 20% criterion (below 13.49), and therefore passes this test.


PRICE/CASH FLOW (P/CF) RATIO: PASS

The P/CF of a company should be in the bottom 20% of the overall market. CIM's P/CF of 6.96 meets the bottom 20% criterion (below 7.72) and therefore passes this test.


PRICE/BOOK (P/B) VALUE: FAIL

The P/B value of a company should be in the bottom 20% of the overall market. CIM's P/B is currently 1.23, which does not meet the bottom 20% criterion (below 1.06), and it therefore fails this test.


PRICE/DIVIDEND (P/D) RATIO: PASS

The P/D ratio for a company should be in the bottom 20% of the overall market (that is the yield should be in the top 20%). CIM's P/D of 10.22 meets the bottom 20% criterion (below 20.88), and it therefore passes this test.


This methodology maintains that investors should look for as many healthy financial ratios as possible to ascertain the financial strength of the company. These criteria are detailed below.


PAYOUT RATIO: PASS

A good indicator that a company has the ability to raise its dividend is a low payout ratio. The payout ratio for CIM is 83.48%, while its historical payout ratio has been 105.02%. Therefore, it passes the payout criterion.


RETURN ON EQUITY: PASS

The company should have a high ROE, as this helps to ensure that there are no structural flaws in the company. This methodology feels that the ROE should be greater than the top one third of ROE from among the top 1500 large cap stocks, which is 16.06%, and would consider anything over 27% to be staggering. The ROE for CIM of 18.11% is high enough to pass this criterion.


PRE-TAX PROFIT MARGINS: PASS

This methodology looks for pre-tax profit margins of at least 8%, and considers anything over 22% to be phenomenal. CIM's pre-tax profit margin is 59.10%, thus passing this criterion.


YIELD: PASS

The company in question should have a yield that is high and that can be maintained or increased. CIM's current yield is 9.78%, while the market yield is 2.64%. CIM passes this test.


BANCO MACRO SA (ADR)

Strategy: Patient Investor
Based on: Warren Buffett

Banco Macro SA is an Argnetina-based financial institution (the Bank) that offers traditional bank products and services to companies, including those operating in regional economies, as well as to individuals. In addition, the Bank performs certain transactions through its subsidiaries, including mainly Banco del Tucuman, Macro Bank Ltd, Macro Securities SA, Macro Fiducia SA and Macro Fondos SGFCI SA. It has approximately two categories of customers, such as retail customers, including individuals and entrepreneurs and corporate customers, which include small, medium and large companies and major corporations. In addition, it provides services to over four provincial governments. It provides its corporate customers with traditional banking products and services, such as deposits, lending (including overdraft facilities), check cashing advances and factoring, guaranteed loans and credit lines for financing foreign trade and cash management services.

STAGE 1: "Is this a Buffett type company?"

A bedrock principle for Buffett is that his type of company has a "durable competitive advantage" as compared to being a "price competitive" or "commodity" type of business. Companies with a "durable competitive advantage" are more likely to be found in these sub-industries: Brand Name Fast Food Restaurants, Brand Name Beverages, Brand Name Foods, Brand Name Toiletries and Household Products, Brand Name Clothing, Brand Name Prescription Drugs, Advertising, Advertising Agencies, TV, Newspapers, Magazines, Direct Mail, Repetitive Services for Businesses, Low Cost Producers of Insurance, furniture, or Low Cost Retailers. While you should be easily able to explain where the company's pricing power comes from (i.e. a strong regional brand image, a business tollgate, its main products are #1 or # 2 in its field and has been on the market for years and hasn't changed at all, a consumer or business ends up buying the same product many times in a year, etc. or having the lowest production cost among its competition), there are certain figures that one can look at that can qualify the company as having a durable competitive advantage.


LOOK FOR EARNINGS PREDICTABILITY: PASS

Buffett likes companies to have solid, stable earnings that are continually expanding. This allows him to accurately predict future earnings. Annual earnings per share from earliest to most recent were 0.04, 0.06, 0.11, 0.09, 0.13, 0.17, 0.27, 0.39, 0.56, 0.73. Buffett would consider BMA's earnings predictable, although earnings have declined 1 time(s) in the past seven years, with the most recent decline 7 years ago. The dips have totaled 18.2%. BMA's long term historical EPS growth rate is 33.7%, based on the 10 year average EPS growth rate, and it is expected to grow earnings 25.7% per year in the future, based on the analysts' consensus estimated long term growth rate. For the purposes of our analysis, we will use the more conservative of the two EPS growth numbers.


LOOK FOR CONSISTENTLY HIGHER THAN AVERAGE RETURN ON EQUITY: PASS

Buffett likes companies with above average return on equity of at least 15% or better, as this is an indicator that the company has a durable competitive advantage. US corporations have, on average, returned about 12% on equity over the last 30 years. The average ROE for BMA, over the last ten years, is 25.2%, which is high enough to pass. It is not enough that the average be at least 15%. For each of the last 10 years, with the possible exception of the last fiscal year, the ROE must be at least 10% for Buffett to feel comfortable that the ROE is consistent. In addition, the average ROE over the last 3 years must also exceed 15%. The ROE for the last 10 years, from earliest to latest, is 13.8%, 22.8%, 28.9%, 20.3%, 24.3%, 24.4%, 27.8%, 29.7%, 31.0%, 29.0%, and the average ROE over the last 3 years is 29.9%, thus passing this criterion.


LOOK FOR CONSISTENTLY HIGHER THAN AVERAGE RETURN ON ASSETS: PASS

Buffett also requires, for financial companies, that the average Return On Assets (ROA) be at least 1% and consistent. Return On Assets is defined as the net earnings of the business divided by the total assets of the business. The average ROA for BMA, over the last ten years, is 3.4%, which is high enough to pass. It is not enough that the average be at least 1%. For each of the last 10 years, with the possible exception of the last fiscal year, the ROA must be at least 1% for Buffett to feel comfortable that the ROA is consistent. The ROA for the last 10 years, from earliest to latest, is 1.9%, 2.9%, 3.6%, 2.5%, 2.8%, 3.1%, 4.1%, 4.6%, 4.7%, 4.1%, thus passing this criterion.


LOOK AT CAPITAL EXPENDITURES: PASS

Buffett likes companies that do not have major capital expenditures. That is, he looks for companies that do not need to spend a ton of money on major upgrades of plant and equipment or on research and development to stay competitive. BMA's free cash flow per share of $12.54 is positive, indicating that the company is generating more cash that it is consuming. This is a favorable sign, and so the company passes this criterion.


LOOK AT MANAGEMENT'S USE OF RETAINED EARNINGS: PASS

Buffett likes to see if management has spent retained earnings in a way that benefits shareholders. To figure this out, Buffett takes the total amount of retained earnings over the previous ten years of $2.25 and compares it to the gain in EPS over the same period of $0.69. BMA's management has proven it can earn shareholders a 30.6% return on the earnings they kept. This return is more than acceptable to Buffett. Essentially, management is doing a great job putting the retained earnings to work.


HAS THE COMPANY BEEN BUYING BACK SHARES: BONUS PASS

Buffett likes to see falling shares outstanding, which indicates that the company has been repurchasing shares. This indicates that management has been using excess capital to increase shareholder value. BMA's shares outstanding have fallen over the past five years from 573,250,000 to 58,000,000, thus passing this criterion. This is a bonus criterion and will not adversely affect the ability of a stock to pass the strategy as a whole if it is failed.

The preceding concludes Buffett's qualitative analysis. If and when he gets positive responses to all the above criteria, he would then proceed with a price analysis. The price analysis will determine whether or not the stock should be bought. The following is how he would evaluate BMA quantitatively.

STAGE 2: "Should I buy at this price?" Although a firm may be a Buffett type company, he won't invest in it unless he can get a favorable price that allows him a great long term return.


CALCULATE THE INITIAL RATE OF RETURN: [No Pass/Fail]

Buffett compares his type of stocks to bonds, and likes to see what a company's initial rate of return is. To calculate the initial rate of return, take the trailing 12-month EPS of $7.28 and divide it by the current market price of $85.61. An investor, purchasing BMA, could expect to receive a 8.50% initial rate of return. Furthermore, he or she could expect the rate to increase 25.7% per year, based on the analysts' consensus estimated long term growth rate, as this is how fast earnings are growing.


COMPARE THE INITIAL RATE OF RETURN WITH THE LONG-TERM TREASURY YIELD: PASS

Buffett favors companies in which the initial rate of return is around the long-term treasury yield. Nonetheless, he has invested in companies with low initial rates of return, as long as the yield is expected to expand rapidly. Currently, the long-term treasury yield is about 2.25%. Compare this with BMA's initial yield of 8.50%, which will expand at an annual rate of 25.7%, based on the analysts' consensus estimated long term growth rate. The company is the better choice, as the initial rate of return is close to or above the long term bond yield and is expanding.


CALCULATE THE FUTURE EPS: [No Pass/Fail]

BMA currently has a book value of $24.60. It is safe to say that if BMA can preserve its average rate of return on equity of 25.2% and continues to retain 84.24% of its earnings, it will be able to sustain an earnings growth rate of 21.2% and it will have a book value of $168.61 in ten years. If it can still earn 25.2% on equity in ten years, then expected EPS will be $42.48.


CALCULATE THE FUTURE STOCK PRICE BASED ON THE AVERAGE ROE METHOD: [No Pass/Fail]

Now take the expected future EPS of $42.48 and multiply them by the lower of the 5 year average P/E ratio or current P/E ratio (11.8) (5 year average P/E in this case), which is 7.4 and you get BMA's projected future stock price of $313.09.


CALCULATE THE EXPECTED RATE OF RETURN BASED ON THE AVERAGE ROE METHOD: [No Pass/Fail]

Now add in the total expected dividend pool to be paid over the next ten years, which is $49.67. This gives you a total dollar amount of $362.75. These numbers indicate that one could expect to make a 15.5% average annual return on BMA's stock at the present time. Buffett would consider this a great return.


CALCULATE THE EXPECTED FUTURE STOCK PRICE BASED ON AVERAGE EPS GROWTH: [No Pass/Fail]

If you take the EPS growth of 25.7%, based on the analysts' consensus estimated long term growth rate, you can project EPS in ten years to be $71.75. Now multiply EPS in 10 years by the lower of the 5 year average P/E ratio or current P/E ratio (11.8) (5 year average P/E in this case), which is 7.4. This equals the future stock price of $528.81. Add in the total expected dividend pool of $49.67 to get a total dollar amount of $578.47.


CALCULATE THE EXPECTED RETURN USING THE AVERAGE EPS GROWTH METHOD: [No Pass/Fail]

Now you can figure out your expected return based on a current price of $85.61 and the future expected stock price, including the dividend pool, of $578.47. If you were to invest in BMA at this time, you could expect a 21.05% average annual return on your money. Buffett would consider this a great return.


LOOK AT THE RANGE OF EXPECTED RATE OF RETURN: PASS

Based on the two different methods, you could expect an annual compounding rate of return somewhere between 15.5% and 21.1%. To pinpoint the average return a little better, we have taken an average of the two different methods. Investors could expect an average return of 18.3% on BMA stock for the next ten years, based on the current fundamentals. Buffett would consider this a great return, thus passing the criterion.


SANDERSON FARMS, INC.

Strategy: Growth Investor
Based on: Martin Zweig

Sanderson Farms, Inc. is a poultry processing company. The Company is engaged in the production, processing, marketing and distribution of fresh and frozen chicken, and also preparation, processing, marketing and distribution of processed and minimally prepared chicken. It sells ice pack, chill pack, bulk pack and frozen chicken, in whole, cut-up and boneless form, under the Sanderson Farms brand name to retailers, distributors, casual dining operators, customers reselling frozen chicken into export markets. The Company, through its subsidiaries, Sanderson Farms, Inc. (Production Division) and Sanderson Farms, Inc. (Processing Division), conducts its chicken operations. Sanderson Farms, Inc. (Production Division) is engaged in the production of chickens to the broiler-stage. Sanderson Farms, Inc. (Foods Division) is engaged in the processing, sale and distribution of chickens. The Company, through Sanderson Farms, Inc. (Foods Division), conducts its prepared chicken business.


P/E RATIO: PASS

The P/E of a company must be greater than 5 to eliminate weak companies, but not more than 3 times the current Market P/E because the situation is much too risky, and never greater than 43. SAFM's P/E is 12.47, based on trailing 12 month earnings, while the current market PE is 17.00. Therefore, it passes the first test.


REVENUE GROWTH IN RELATION TO EPS GROWTH: FAIL

Revenue Growth must not be substantially less than earnings growth. For earnings to continue to grow over time they must be supported by a comparable or better sales growth rate and not just by cost cutting or other non-sales measures. SAFM's revenue growth is 2.92%, while it's earnings growth rate is 25.52%, based on the average of the 3 and 4 year historical eps growth rates. Therefore, SAFM fails this criterion.


SALES GROWTH RATE: FAIL

Another important issue regarding sales growth is that the rate of quarterly sales growth is rising. To evaluate this, the change from this quarter last year to the present quarter (13.7%) must be examined, and then compared to the previous quarter last year compared to the previous quarter (16.4%) of the current year. Sales growth for the prior must be greater than the latter. For SAFM this criterion has not been met and fails this test.


The earnings numbers of a company should be examined from various different angles. Three of these angles are stability in the trend of earnings, earnings persistence, and earnings acceleration. To evaluate stability, the stock has to pass the following four criteria.


CURRENT QUARTER EARNINGS: PASS

The first of these criteria is that the current EPS be positive. SAFM's EPS ($1.03) pass this test.


QUARTERLY EARNINGS ONE YEAR AGO: PASS

The EPS for the quarter one year ago must be positive. SAFM's EPS for this quarter last year ($0.47) pass this test.


POSITIVE EARNINGS GROWTH RATE FOR CURRENT QUARTER: PASS

The growth rate of the current quarter's earnings compared to the same quarter a year ago must also be positive. SAFM's growth rate of 119.15% passes this test.


EARNINGS GROWTH RATE FOR THE PAST SEVERAL QUARTERS: FAIL

Compare the earnings growth rate of the previous three quarters with long-term EPS growth rate. Earnings growth in the previous 3 quarters should be at least half of the long-term EPS growth rate. Half of the long-term EPS growth rate for SAFM is 12.76%. This should be less than the growth rates for the 3 previous quarters which are -65.24%, 6.61% and 173.17%. SAFM does not pass this test, which means that it does not have good, reasonably steady earnings.


This strategy looks at the rate which earnings grow and evaluates this rate of growth from different angles. The 4 tests immediately following are detailed below.


EPS GROWTH FOR CURRENT QUARTER MUST BE GREATER THAN PRIOR 3 QUARTERS: PASS

If the growth rate of the prior three quarter's earnings, -17.55%, (versus the same three quarters a year earlier) is less than the growth rate of the current quarter earnings, 119.15%, (versus the same quarter one year ago) then the stock passes.


EPS GROWTH FOR CURRENT QUARTER MUST BE GREATER THAN THE HISTORICAL GROWTH RATE: PASS

The EPS growth rate for the current quarter, 119.15% must be greater than or equal to the historical growth which is 25.52%. SAFM would therefore pass this test.


EARNINGS PERSISTENCE: FAIL

Companies must show persistent yearly earnings growth. To fulfill this requirement a company's earnings must increase each year for a five year period. SAFM, whose annual EPS growth before extraordinary items for the previous 5 years (from the earliest to the most recent fiscal year) were 2.35, 5.68, 10.80, 9.52, and 8.37, fails this test.


LONG-TERM EPS GROWTH: PASS

One final earnings test required is that the long-term earnings growth rate must be at least 15% per year. SAFM's long-term growth rate of 25.52%, based on the average of the 3 and 4 year historical eps growth rates, passes this test.


TOTAL DEBT/EQUITY RATIO: PASS

A final criterion is that a company must not have a high level of debt. A high level of total debt, due to high interest expenses, can have a very negative effect on earnings if business moderately turns down. If a company does have a high level, an investor may want to avoid this stock altogether. SAFM's Debt/Equity (0.00%) is not considered high relative to its industry (145.11%) and passes this test.


INSIDER TRANSACTIONS: PASS

A factor that adds to a stock's attractiveness is if insider buy transactions number 3 or more, while insider sell transactions are zero. Zweig calls this an insider buy signal. For SAFM, this criterion has not been met (insider sell transactions are 1,076, while insiders buying number 303). Despite the fact that insider sells out number insider buys for this company, Zweig considers even one insider buy transaction enough to prevent an insider sell signal, therefore there is not an insider sell signal and the stock passes this criterion.


NIC INC.

Strategy: Growth Investor
Based on: Martin Zweig

NIC Inc. is a provider of digital government services that help governments use technology to provide services to businesses and citizens. The Company operates through Outsourced Portals segment. The Company offers its services through two channels: primary outsourced portal businesses, and software and services businesses. In the primary outsourced portal businesses, the Company enters into contracts with state and local governments to design, build, and operate Internet-based, enterprise-wide portals on their behalf. Its software and services businesses include its subsidiaries that provide software development and payment processing services, other than outsourced portal services, to state and local governments, as well as federal agencies. The Company's outsourced portal businesses include interactive government services (IGS), driver history records (DHR), Portal software development and services, and Portal management.


P/E RATIO: PASS

The P/E of a company must be greater than 5 to eliminate weak companies, but not more than 3 times the current Market P/E because the situation is much too risky, and never greater than 43. EGOV's P/E is 25.27, based on trailing 12 month earnings, while the current market PE is 17.00. Therefore, it passes the first test.


REVENUE GROWTH IN RELATION TO EPS GROWTH: FAIL

Revenue Growth must not be substantially less than earnings growth. For earnings to continue to grow over time they must be supported by a comparable or better sales growth rate and not just by cost cutting or other non-sales measures. EGOV's revenue growth is 10.40%, while it's earnings growth rate is 19.66%, based on the average of the 3, 4 and 5 year historical eps growth rates. Therefore, EGOV fails this criterion.


SALES GROWTH RATE: PASS

Another important issue regarding sales growth is that the rate of quarterly sales growth is rising. To evaluate this, the change from this quarter last year to the present quarter (10.1%) must be examined, and then compared to the previous quarter last year compared to the previous quarter (7.1%) of the current year. Sales growth for the prior must be greater than the latter. For EGOV this criterion has been met.


The earnings numbers of a company should be examined from various different angles. Three of these angles are stability in the trend of earnings, earnings persistence, and earnings acceleration. To evaluate stability, the stock has to pass the following four criteria.


CURRENT QUARTER EARNINGS: PASS

The first of these criteria is that the current EPS be positive. EGOV's EPS ($0.20) pass this test.


QUARTERLY EARNINGS ONE YEAR AGO: PASS

The EPS for the quarter one year ago must be positive. EGOV's EPS for this quarter last year ($0.14) pass this test.


POSITIVE EARNINGS GROWTH RATE FOR CURRENT QUARTER: PASS

The growth rate of the current quarter's earnings compared to the same quarter a year ago must also be positive. EGOV's growth rate of 42.86% passes this test.


EARNINGS GROWTH RATE FOR THE PAST SEVERAL QUARTERS: PASS

Compare the earnings growth rate of the previous three quarters with long-term EPS growth rate. Earnings growth in the previous 3 quarters should be at least half of the long-term EPS growth rate. Half of the long-term EPS growth rate for EGOV is 9.83%. This should be less than the growth rates for the 3 previous quarters, which are 35.71%, 17.65%, and 26.32%. EGOV passes this test, which means that it has good, reasonably steady earnings.


This strategy looks at the rate which earnings grow and evaluates this rate of growth from different angles. The 4 tests immediately following are detailed below.


EPS GROWTH FOR CURRENT QUARTER MUST BE GREATER THAN PRIOR 3 QUARTERS: PASS

If the growth rate of the prior three quarter's earnings, 26.00%, (versus the same three quarters a year earlier) is less than the growth rate of the current quarter earnings, 42.86%, (versus the same quarter one year ago) then the stock passes.


EPS GROWTH FOR CURRENT QUARTER MUST BE GREATER THAN THE HISTORICAL GROWTH RATE: PASS

The EPS growth rate for the current quarter, 42.86% must be greater than or equal to the historical growth which is 19.66%. EGOV would therefore pass this test.


EARNINGS PERSISTENCE: PASS

Companies must show persistent yearly earnings growth. To fulfill this requirement a company's earnings must increase each year for a five year period. EGOV, whose annual EPS growth before extraordinary items for the previous 5 years (from the earliest to the most recent fiscal year) were 0.40, 0.49, 0.59, 0.63 and 0.84, passes this test.


LONG-TERM EPS GROWTH: PASS

One final earnings test required is that the long-term earnings growth rate must be at least 15% per year. EGOV's long-term growth rate of 19.66%, based on the average of the 3, 4 and 5 year historical eps growth rates, passes this test.


TOTAL DEBT/EQUITY RATIO: PASS

A final criterion is that a company must not have a high level of debt. A high level of total debt, due to high interest expenses, can have a very negative effect on earnings if business moderately turns down. If a company does have a high level, an investor may want to avoid this stock altogether. EGOV's Debt/Equity (0.00%) is not considered high relative to its industry (221.06%) and passes this test.


INSIDER TRANSACTIONS: PASS

A factor that adds to a stock's attractiveness is if insider buy transactions number 3 or more, while insider sell transactions are zero. Zweig calls this an insider buy signal. For EGOV, this criterion has not been met (insider sell transactions are 376, while insiders buying number 4). Despite the fact that insider sells out number insider buys for this company, Zweig considers even one insider buy transaction enough to prevent an insider sell signal, therefore there is not an insider sell signal and the stock passes this criterion.


FOOT LOCKER, INC.

Strategy: Growth/Value Investor
Based on: James P. O'Shaughnessy

Foot Locker, Inc. is a retailer of shoes and apparel. The Company operates through two segments: Athletic Stores and Direct-to-Customers. The Company is an athletic footwear and apparel retailer, which include businesses, such as include Foot Locker, Kids Foot Locker, Lady Foot Locker, Champs Sports, Footaction, Runners Point, Sidestep and SIX:02. The Direct-to-Customers segment is multi-branded and sells directly to customers through Internet and mobile sites and catalogs. The Direct-to-Customers segment operates the Websites for eastbay.com, final-score.com, eastbayteamsales.com and sp24.com. Additionally, this segment includes the Websites, both desktop and mobile, aligned with the brand names of its store banners (footlocker.com, ladyfootlocker.com, six02.com kidsfootlocker.com, champssports.com, footaction.com, footlocker.ca, footlocker.eu, runnerspoint.com and sidestep-shoes.com).


MARKET CAP: PASS

The first requirement of the Cornerstone Growth Strategy is that the company has a market capitalization of at least $150 million. This will screen out the companies that are too illiquid for most investors, but still include a small growth company. FL, with a market cap of $10,046 million, passes this criterion.


EARNINGS PER SHARE PERSISTENCE: PASS

The Cornerstone Growth methodology looks for companies that show persistent earnings growth without regard to magnitude. To fulfill this requirement, a company's earnings must increase each year for a five year period. FL, whose annual EPS before extraordinary items for the last 5 years (from earliest to the most recent fiscal year) were 2.58, 2.85, 3.56, 3.84 and 4.92, passes this test.


PRICE/SALES RATIO: PASS

The Price/Sales ratio should be below 1.5. This value criterion, coupled with the growth criterion, identify growth stocks that are still cheap to buy. FL's Price/Sales ratio of 1.29, based on trailing 12 month sales, passes this criterion.


RELATIVE STRENGTH: PASS

The final criterion for the Cornerstone Growth Strategy requires that the Relative Strength of the company be among the top 50 of the stocks screened using the previous criterion. This gives you the opportunity to buy the growth stocks you are searching for just as the market is embracing them. FL, whose relative strength is 65, is in the top 50 and would pass this last criterion.


CORNING INCORPORATED

Strategy: P/E/Growth Investor
Based on: Peter Lynch

Corning Incorporated is engaged in manufacturing specialty glass and ceramics. Its segments include Display Technologies, Optical Communications, Environmental Technologies, Specialty Materials, Life Sciences and All Other. The Display Technologies segment manufactures glass substrates for flat panel liquid crystal displays (LCDs). The Optical Communications segment manufactures carrier and enterprise network components for the telecommunications industry. The Environmental Technologies segment manufactures ceramic substrates and filters for automotive and diesel emission control applications. As of December 31, 2016, the Specialty Materials segment manufactured products, which provided more than 150 material formulations for glass, glass ceramics and fluoride crystals. The Life Sciences segment manufactures glass and plastic labware, equipment, media and reagents. The All Other segment consists of its Pharmaceutical Technologies business and non-LCD glass business, and among others.


DETERMINE THE CLASSIFICATION:

This methodology would consider GLW a "fast-grower".


P/E/GROWTH RATIO: PASS

The investor should examine the P/E (8.41) relative to the growth rate (25.85%), based on the average of the 3, 4 and 5 year historical eps growth rates, for a company. This is a quick way of determining the fairness of the price. In this particular case, the P/E/G ratio for GLW (0.33) is very favorable.


SALES AND P/E RATIO: PASS

For companies with sales greater than $1 billion, this methodology likes to see that the P/E ratio remain below 40. Large companies can have a difficult time maintaining a growth high enough to support a P/E above this threshold. GLW, whose sales are $9,390.0 million, needs to have a P/E below 40 to pass this criterion. GLW's P/E of (8.41) is considered acceptable.


INVENTORY TO SALES: PASS

When inventories increase faster than sales, it is a red flag. However an increase of up to 5% is considered bearable if all other ratios appear attractive. Inventory to sales for GLW was 15.20% last year, while for this year it is 15.67%. Since inventory has been rising, this methodology would not look favorably at the stock but would not completely eliminate it from consideration as the inventory increase (0.46%) is below 5%.


EPS GROWTH RATE: PASS

This methodology favors companies that have several years of fast earnings growth, as these companies have a proven formula for growth that in many cases can continue many more years. This methodology likes to see earnings growth in the range of 20% to 50%, as earnings growth over 50% may be unsustainable. The EPS growth rate for GLW is 25.9%, based on the average of the 3, 4 and 5 year historical eps growth rates, which is acceptable.


TOTAL DEBT/EQUITY RATIO: PASS

This methodology would consider the Debt/Equity ratio for GLW (21.81%) to be acceptable (equity is three to ten times debt). This ratio is one quick way to determine the financial strength of the company.


FREE CASH FLOW: NEUTRAL

The Free Cash Flow/Price ratio, though not a requirement, is considered a bonus if it is above 35%. A positive Cash Flow (the higher the better) separates a wonderfully reliable investment from a shaky one. This methodology prefers not to invest in companies that rely heavily on capital spending. This ratio for GLW (2.40%) is too low to add to the attractiveness of the stock. Keep in mind, however, that it does not adversely affect the company as it is a bonus criteria.


NET CASH POSITION: NEUTRAL

Another bonus for a company is having a Net Cash/Price ratio above 30%. Lynch defines net cash as cash and marketable securities minus long term debt. According to this methodology, a high value for this ratio dramatically cuts down on the risk of the security. The Net Cash/Price ratio for GLW (7.16%) is too low to add to the attractiveness of this company. Keep in mind, however, that it does not adversely affect the company as it is a bonus criteria.


NATIONAL BEVERAGE CORP.

Strategy: Small-Cap Growth Investor
Based on: Motley Fool

National Beverage Corp. is a holding company. The Company develops, produces, markets and sells a diverse portfolio of flavored beverage products primarily in North America. The Company's brands consist of beverages geared to the active and health-conscious consumer (Power+ Brands), including sparkling waters, energy drinks and juices, and carbonated soft drinks in a range of flavors, including regular, sugar-free and reduced calorie options. In addition, the Company produces soft drinks for certain retailers, such as allied brands. The Company's portfolio of Power+ Brands includes LaCroix, LaCroix Curate, LaCroix NiCola and Shasta sparkling water products; Rip It energy drinks and shots, and Everfresh, Everfresh Premier Varietals and Mr. Pure juice and juice-based products. The Company's carbonated soft drinks include Shasta and Faygo, iconic brands. The Company had, as of April 30, 2016, 12 production facilities located near metropolitan markets across the continental United States.


PROFIT MARGIN: PASS

This methodology seeks companies with a minimum trailing 12 month after tax profit margin of 7%. The companies that pass this criterion have strong positions within their respective industries and offer greater shareholder returns. A true test of the quality of a company is that they can sustain this margin. FIZZ's profit margin of 12.02% passes this test.


RELATIVE STRENGTH: PASS

The investor must look at the relative strength of the company in question. Companies whose relative strength is 90 or above (that is, the company outperforms 90% or more of the market for the past year), are considered attractive. Companies whose price has been rising much quicker than the market tend to keep rising. FIZZ, with a relative strength of 94, satisfies this test.


COMPARE SALES AND EPS GROWTH TO THE SAME PERIOD LAST YEAR: FAIL

Companies must demonstrate both revenue and net income growth of at least 25% as compared to the prior year. These growth rates give you the dynamic companies that you are looking for. These rates for FIZZ (116.67% for EPS, and 20.33% for Sales) are not good enough to pass.


INSIDER HOLDINGS: PASS

FIZZ's insiders should own at least 10% (they own 75.04% ) of the company's outstanding shares which is extremely attractive since the minimum requirement is 10%. A high percentage indicates that the insiders are confident that the company will do well.


CASH FLOW FROM OPERATIONS: PASS

A positive cash flow is typically used for internal expansion, acquisitions, dividend payments, etc. A company that generates rather than consumes cash is in much better shape to fund such activities on their own, rather than needing to borrow funds to do so. FIZZ's free cash flow of $1.43 per share passes this test.


PROFIT MARGIN CONSISTENCY: PASS

FIZZ's profit margin has been consistent or even increasing over the past three years (Current year: 8.68%, Last year: 7.64%, Two years ago: 6.81%), passing the requirement. It is a sign of good management and a healthy and competitive enterprise.


R&D AS A PERCENTAGE OF SALES: NEUTRAL

This criterion is not critically important for companies that are not high-tech or medical stocks because they are not as R&D dependant as companies within those sectors. Not much emphasis should be placed on this test in FIZZ's case.


CASH AND CASH EQUIVALENTS: FAIL

FIZZ does not have a sufficiently large amount of cash, $105.58 million, on hand relative to its size. Although this criteria does not apply to companies of this size, we defined anything greater than $500 million in cash as having 'a lot of cash' to allow analysis of these companies. FIZZ will have more of a difficult time paying off debt (if it has any) or acquiring other companies than a company that passes this criterion.


INVENTORY TO SALES: PASS

This methodology strongly believes that companies, especially small ones, should have tight control over inventory. It's a warning sign if a company's inventory relative to sales increases significantly when compared to the previous year. Up to a 30% increase is allowed, but no more. Inventory to Sales for FIZZ was 6.65% last year, while for this year it is 6.80%. Although the inventory to sales is rising, it is below the max 30% that is allowed. The investor can still consider the stock if all other criteria appear very attractive.


ACCOUNT RECEIVABLE TO SALES: PASS

This methodology wants to make sure that a company's accounts receivable do not get significantly out of line with sales. It's a warning sign if a company's accounts receivable relative to sales increases significantly when compared to the previous year. Up to a 30% increase is allowed, but no more. Accounts Receivable to Sales for FIZZ was 9.28% last year, while for this year it is 8.66%. Since the AR to sales is decreasing by -0.62% the stock passes this criterion.


LONG TERM DEBT/EQUITY RATIO: PASS

FIZZ's trailing twelve-month Debt/Equity ratio (0.00%) is at a great level according to this methodology because the superior companies that you are looking for don't need to borrow money in order to grow.


"THE FOOL RATIO" (P/E TO GROWTH): FAIL

The "Fool Ratio" is an extremely important aspect of this analysis. The methodology says consider shorting shares when the company's Fool Ratio is greater than 1.30. FIZZ's PEG Ratio of 5.19 is excessively high.

The following criteria for FIZZ are less important which means you would place less emphasis on them when making your investment decision using this strategy:

AVERAGE SHARES OUTSTANDING: PASS

FIZZ has not been significantly increasing the number of shares outstanding within recent years which is a good sign. FIZZ currently has 47.0 million shares outstanding. This means the company is not taking any measures, with regards to the number of shares, that will dilute or devalue the stock.


SALES: FAIL

Companies with sales less than $500 million should be chosen. It is among these small-cap stocks that investors can find "an uncut gem", ones that institutions won't be able to buy yet. FIZZ's sales of $793.9 million based on trailing 12 month sales, are too high and would therefore fail the test. It is companies with $500 million or less in sales that are most likely to double or triple in size in the next few years.


DAILY DOLLAR VOLUME: FAIL

FIZZ does not pass the Daily Dollar Volume (DDV of $27.3 million) test. It exceeds the maximum requirement of $25 million. Stocks that fail the test are too liquid for a small individual investor and many institutions have already discovered it.


PRICE: PASS

This is a very insignificant criterion for this methodology. But basically, low prices are chosen because "small numbers multiply more rapidly than large ones" and the potential for big returns expands. FIZZ with a price of $90.27 passes the price test, even though it doesn't fall in the preferred range. The price should be above $7 in order to eliminate penny stocks and below $20 since most stocks in this price range are undiscovered by the institutions.


INCOME TAX PERCENTAGE: PASS

FIZZ's income tax paid expressed as a percentage of pretax income this year was (33.99%) and last year (34.00%) are greater than 20% which is an acceptable level. If the tax rate is below 20% this could mean that the earnings that were reported were unrealistically inflated due to the lower level of income tax paid. This is a concern.


ADVANCED ENERGY INDUSTRIES, INC.

Strategy: Growth Investor
Based on: Martin Zweig

Advanced Energy Industries, Inc. is a provider of engineered, precision power conversion, measurement and control solutions. The Company is engaged in designing, manufacturing, selling and supporting its power conversion products and solutions that transform power into various forms in various applications ranging from manufacturing and industrial processes to instrumentation, and test and measurement. It also provides repair and maintenance services for all of its products. Its process power systems include direct current (DC), pulsed DC, low frequency, high voltage, and radio frequency (RF) power supplies, matching networks, remote plasma sources for reactive gas applications and RF instrumentation. These power conversion systems refine, modify and control the raw electrical power from a utility and convert it into power that may be customized and is predictable and repeatable. Its power control modules and thermal instrumentation products are used in the semiconductor industry.


P/E RATIO: PASS

The P/E of a company must be greater than 5 to eliminate weak companies, but not more than 3 times the current Market P/E because the situation is much too risky, and never greater than 43. AEIS's P/E is 23.59, based on trailing 12 month earnings, while the current market PE is 17.00. Therefore, it passes the first test.


REVENUE GROWTH IN RELATION TO EPS GROWTH: FAIL

Revenue Growth must not be substantially less than earnings growth. For earnings to continue to grow over time they must be supported by a comparable or better sales growth rate and not just by cost cutting or other non-sales measures. AEIS's revenue growth is 5.87%, while it's earnings growth rate is 36.14%, based on the average of the 3, 4 and 5 year historical eps growth rates. Therefore, AEIS fails this criterion.


SALES GROWTH RATE: PASS

Another important issue regarding sales growth is that the rate of quarterly sales growth is rising. To evaluate this, the change from this quarter last year to the present quarter (55.8%) must be examined, and then compared to the previous quarter last year compared to the previous quarter (15.3%) of the current year. Sales growth for the prior must be greater than the latter. For AEIS this criterion has been met.


The earnings numbers of a company should be examined from various different angles. Three of these angles are stability in the trend of earnings, earnings persistence, and earnings acceleration. To evaluate stability, the stock has to pass the following four criteria.


CURRENT QUARTER EARNINGS: PASS

The first of these criteria is that the current EPS be positive. AEIS's EPS ($1.01) pass this test.


QUARTERLY EARNINGS ONE YEAR AGO: PASS

The EPS for the quarter one year ago must be positive. AEIS's EPS for this quarter last year ($0.28) pass this test.


POSITIVE EARNINGS GROWTH RATE FOR CURRENT QUARTER: PASS

The growth rate of the current quarter's earnings compared to the same quarter a year ago must also be positive. AEIS's growth rate of 260.71% passes this test.


EARNINGS GROWTH RATE FOR THE PAST SEVERAL QUARTERS: FAIL

Compare the earnings growth rate of the previous three quarters with long-term EPS growth rate. Earnings growth in the previous 3 quarters should be at least half of the long-term EPS growth rate. Half of the long-term EPS growth rate for AEIS is 18.07%. This should be less than the growth rates for the 3 previous quarters which are -20.63%, 21.43% and 30.36%. AEIS does not pass this test, which means that it does not have good, reasonably steady earnings.


This strategy looks at the rate which earnings grow and evaluates this rate of growth from different angles. The 4 tests immediately following are detailed below.


EPS GROWTH FOR CURRENT QUARTER MUST BE GREATER THAN PRIOR 3 QUARTERS: PASS

If the growth rate of the prior three quarter's earnings, 9.14%, (versus the same three quarters a year earlier) is less than the growth rate of the current quarter earnings, 260.71%, (versus the same quarter one year ago) then the stock passes.


EPS GROWTH FOR CURRENT QUARTER MUST BE GREATER THAN THE HISTORICAL GROWTH RATE: PASS

The EPS growth rate for the current quarter, 260.71% must be greater than or equal to the historical growth which is 36.14%. AEIS would therefore pass this test.


EARNINGS PERSISTENCE: PASS

Companies must show persistent yearly earnings growth. To fulfill this requirement a company's earnings must increase each year for a five year period. AEIS, whose annual EPS growth before extraordinary items for the previous 5 years (from the earliest to the most recent fiscal year) were 0.51, 1.47, 1.69, 2.05 and 2.92, passes this test.


LONG-TERM EPS GROWTH: PASS

One final earnings test required is that the long-term earnings growth rate must be at least 15% per year. AEIS's long-term growth rate of 36.14%, based on the average of the 3, 4 and 5 year historical eps growth rates, passes this test.


TOTAL DEBT/EQUITY RATIO: PASS

A final criterion is that a company must not have a high level of debt. A high level of total debt, due to high interest expenses, can have a very negative effect on earnings if business moderately turns down. If a company does have a high level, an investor may want to avoid this stock altogether. AEIS's Debt/Equity (0.00%) is not considered high relative to its industry (50.82%) and passes this test.


INSIDER TRANSACTIONS: PASS

A factor that adds to a stock's attractiveness is if insider buy transactions number 3 or more, while insider sell transactions are zero. Zweig calls this an insider buy signal. For AEIS, this criterion has not been met (insider sell transactions are 300, while insiders buying number 86). Despite the fact that insider sells out number insider buys for this company, Zweig considers even one insider buy transaction enough to prevent an insider sell signal, therefore there is not an insider sell signal and the stock passes this criterion.



Watch List

The top scoring stocks not currently in the Hot List portfolio.

Ticker Company Name Current
Score
KORS MICHAEL KORS HOLDINGS LTD 100%
AGX ARGAN, INC. 59%
RTEC RUDOLPH TECHNOLOGIES INC 55%
GGAL GRUPO FINANCIERO GALICIA S.A. (ADR) 53%
MGA MAGNA INTERNATIONAL INC. (USA) 46%
SIG SIGNET JEWELERS LTD. 46%
UTHR UNITED THERAPEUTICS CORPORATION 46%
TX TERNIUM SA (ADR) 45%
MAN MANPOWERGROUP INC. 42%
SBS COMPANHIA DE SANEAMENTO BASICO (ADR) 42%



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