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Executive Summary June 21, 2013

The Economy

While the market has been rattled by concerns about central bank policy (when will the Fed start to taper?) and headwinds overseas (is China's housing market about to burst?), the U.S. economy has been hanging in there with signs of slow, steady progress.

The resurgent housing market continues to be the biggest bright spot. Housing starts rose 6.8% in May, according to a new government report, and now stand about 27% above their year-ago level. Permit issuance for new home construction fell 3.1%, but remained about 20% above its year-ago pace. In addition, the National Association of Realtors reported that existing home sales rose 4.2% in May, putting them more than 15% above where they stood last May. Prices also continue to climb -- the median sales price for the month was 15.4% above the year-ago level.

Retail and food service sales also increased in May, according to the Commerce Department. They rose 0.6%, boosted by a big increase in auto sales. Overall retail and food service sales are about 5% higher than they were a year ago, a solid year-over-year improvement indicating that the U.S. consumer continues to be more resilient than many had expected.

Industrial production was flat in May, a new report from the Federal Reserve showed. Manufacturing activity did increase, though only slightly, by 0.1%. Mining activity jumped 0.7%. Those gains were offset by a 1.8% decline in utility output. Utility output is often a factor of weather and thus quite volatile, however.

In the job market, new claims for unemployment are pretty close to where they were at the time of our last newsletter two weeks ago. They are about 8% below year-ago levels. Continuing claims edged slightly downward since our last newsletter, and are almost 11% below year-ago levels. The labor market improvement, though slow, thus continues, a good sign. But there is a caveat, and it's one we haven't looked at before. While the weekly unemployment claims and monthly jobs data continue to show job growth and a decrease in unemployment, the number of American workers going on disability leave continues to rise. There are many reasons behind the staggering increase in disability claims over the past decade or two; the topic is too vast to dissect here, but NPR's Chana Joffe-Walt gives an excellent, in-depth report on the topic here. A key takeaway is that in many cases, unemployed workers may essentially be getting shifted from one form of government assistance (unemployment) to another (disability).

The issue is thus a very important one to consider when examining the overall jobs and economic pictures. For example, the economy added 593,000 jobs during the first five months of 2013, according to Labor Department data. But for every 7 Americans who got a job, one was added to the disability rolls. This is an issue we'll keep an eye on going forward.

Elsewhere, new data confirms that inflation remains tame, despite the best efforts of the Federal Reserve. The Consumer Price Index did rise in May for the first time since February (and only the second time since October) but the gain was just 0.1%. That made for a year-over-year gain of just 1.4%, well below the Fed's target.

Data like that would seem to support the idea that the Fed is not going to be ending its quantitative easing efforts anytime soon. But that hasn't stopped rampant speculation from occurring as to when the Fed will begin to taper its bond buying programs, with many fearing it will be sooner rather than later. That speculation has been a big driver in the market's struggles over the past few weeks. So too has been data coming out of China. One report showed that Chinese manufacturing slowed in June to its lowest level in nine months. In addition, interbank lending rates jumped sharply in China, with seven-day repurchase rates rising to the highest level since at least March 2003, according to Bloomberg, and one-day rates rising by an "unprecedented" 527 basis points. Those are signs that Chinese banks are growing more wary of lending to each other, a likely byproduct of fears about a potential housing bubble in the Asian giant. When it comes to both the China situation and the Fed situation, however, the moving parts are abundant, and it is extremely difficult to tell how things will unfold, and at what pace they will unfold. That makes it extremely difficult -- and risky -- to try to base investment decisions on what you think might happen in either situation.

Amid all this, since our last newsletter the S&P 500 returned -2.1%, while the Hot List returned -2.6%. So far in 2013, the portfolio has returned 19.4% vs. 11.4% for the S&P. Since its inception in July 2003, the Hot List is far outpacing the index, having gained 223.7% vs. the S&P's 58.8% gain.

Portfolio Update

The concerns I touched on above have made for rough seas for stocks in general, as well as for the Hot List portfolio, over the past fortnight. Not surprisingly, the concerns about the global economy and global demand have hit cyclical types of stocks particularly hard. With the models driving the portfolio having made some big moves into the oil and gas industries recently -- areas they see as full of longer-term value -- our performance has been negatively impacted. As is often the case with value stocks, the values don't always get recognized right away. And in this case the global economic fears have kept pushing some of these Hot List stocks downward. As of mid-afternoon trading on June 20, shares of oil refiner HollyFrontier were down about 10% since our last newsletter. Fellow refiner Valero Energy's shares were down about 7%, and Royal Dutch Shell and Chevron had also slid a bit.

Interestingly, more consumer-oriented stocks in the portfolio actually did quite well. Shares of kitchen and home goods chain Williams-Sonoma were up more than 4%, while those of nutritional supplement product company USANA Health Sciences continued to excel, rising more than 5%. That put shares of USANA up a total of 108% since the start of its six-month stint in the portfolio. The stock continues to get strong scores from many of my models, so as of now it is a strong contender to remain in the portfolio. We'll see just what happens to it and the Hot List's other holdings when we rebalance the portfolio two weeks from now.

 
Editor-in-Chief: John Reese










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Guru Spotlight: Peter Lynch

Choosing the greatest fund manager of all-time is a tough task. John Templeton, Benjamin Graham, John Neff -- a number of investors have put up the types of long-term track records that make it difficult to pick just one who was "The Greatest".

If you were to rank Peter Lynch at the top of the list, however, you'd probably find few would disagree with you. During his 13-year tenure as the head of Fidelity Investments' Magellan Fund, Lynch produced a 29.2 percent average annual return -- nearly twice the 15.8 percent return that the S&P 500 posted during the same period. According to Barron's, over the last five years of Lynch's tenure, Magellan beat 99.5 percent of all other funds. If those numbers aren't impressive enough, try this one: If you'd invested $10,000 in Magellan the day Lynch took the helm, you would have had $280,000 on the day he retired 13 years later.

Just like investors who entrusted him with their money, I, too, owe a special debt of gratitude to Lynch. When I was trying to find my way in the stock market many years ago, Lynch's book One Up On Wall Street was a big part of what put me on the right track. Lynch didn't use complicated schemes or highbrow financial language in giving investment advice; he focused on the basics, and his common sense approach and layman-friendly writing style resonated not only with me but with amateur and professional investors all over, as evidenced by its best-seller status. The wisdom of Lynch's approach so impressed me that I decided to try to computerize the method, the first step I took toward developing my Guru Strategy computer models.

Just what was it about Lynch's approach that made him so incredibly successful? Interestingly, a big part of his approach involved something that is not at all exclusive to being a renowned professional fund manager: He invested in what he knew. Lynch believed that if you personally know something positive about a stock -- you buy the company's products, like its marketing, etc. -- you can get a beat on successful businesses before professional investors get around to them. In fact, one of the things that led him to one of his most successful investments -- undergarment manufacturer Hanes -- was his wife's affinity for the company's new pantyhose years ago.

But while his "buy-what-you-know" advice has gained a lot of attention over the years, that part of his approach was only a starting point for Lynch. What his strategy really focused on was fundamentals -- that's why I was able to computerize it -- and the most important fundamental he looked at was one whose use he pioneered: the P/E/Growth ratio.

The P/E/Growth ratio, or "PEG", divides a stock's price/earnings ratio by its historical growth rate. The theory behind this was relatively simple: The faster a company was growing, the more you should be willing to pay for its stock. To Lynch, PEGs below 1.0 were signs of growth stocks selling on the cheap; PEGs below 0.5 really indicated that a growth stock was a bargain.

To show how the P/E/G can be more useful than the P/E ratio, Lynch has cited Wal-Mart, America's largest retailer. In his book "One Up On Wall Street", he notes that Wal-Mart's P/E was rarely below 20 during its three-decade rise. Its growth rate, however was consistently in the 25 to 30 percent range, generating huge profits for shareholders despite the P/E ratio not being particularly low. That also proved another one of Lynch's tenets: that a good company can grow for decades before earnings level off.

The PEG wasn't the only abbreviation Lynch popularized within the stock market lexicon. His strategy is often used as a primary example of "GARP" -- Growth At A Reasonable Price -- investing, which blends growth and value tenets. While some categorize Lynch as a growth investor because his favorite type of stocks were "fast-growers" -- those growing earnings per share at an annual rate of at least 20 percent -- his use of PEG as a way to make sure he wasn't paying too much for growth really makes him a hybrid growth-value investor.

One Size Doesn't Fit All

One aspect of Lynch's approach that makes it different from those of other gurus I follow is his practice of evaluating different categories of stocks with different variables. His favorite category, as I noted, was "fast-growers". These companies were growing earnings at a rate of 20 to 50 percent per year. (Lynch didn't want growth rates above 50 percent, because it was unlikely companies could sustain such high growth rates over the long term).

The other two main categories of stocks Lynch examined in his writings were "stalwarts" and "slow-growers". Stalwarts are large, steady firms that have multi-billion-dollar sales and moderate growth rates (between 10 and 20 percent). These are usually firms you know well -- Wal-Mart and IBM are current examples of "stalwarts" based on that definition. Their size and stability usually make them good stocks to have if the market hits a downturn, so Lynch typically kept some of them in his portfolio.

"Slow-growers", meanwhile, are firms with higher sales that are growing EPS at an annual rate below 10 percent. These are the types of stocks you invest in primarily for their high dividend yields.

One way Lynch treated slow-growers and stalwarts differently from fast-growers involved the PEG ratio. Because slow-growers and stalwarts tend to offer strong dividend yields, Lynch adjusted their PEG calculations to include dividend yield. For example, consider a stock that is selling for $30, and has a P/E ratio of 10, EPS growth of 12 percent, and a 3 percent yield. To find the PEG, you'd divide the P/E (10) by the total of the growth rate and yield (12+3=15). That gives you 10/15=0.67, which, being under 1.0, indicates that the stock is indeed a good value.

Another difference: For slow-growers, Lynch wanted a high yield, and the model I base on his approach requires dividend yield to be higher than the S&P average and greater than 3 percent.

Beyond The PEG

The PEG wasn't the only variable Lynch applied to all stocks. For fast-growers, stalwarts, and slow-growers alike, he also looked at the inventory/sales ratio, which my Lynch-based model wants to be declining, and the debt/equity ratio, which should be below 80%. (For financial companies, it uses the equity/assets ratio and return on assets rates rather than the debt/equity ratio, since financials typically have to carry a lot of debt as a part of their business.)

The final part of the Lynch strategy includes two bonus categories: free cash flow/price ratio and net cash/price ratio. Lynch loved it when a stock had a free cash flow/price ratio greater than 35 percent, or a net cash/price ratio over 30 percent. (Lynch defined net cash as cash and marketable securities minus long term debt). Failing these tests doesn't hurt a stock, however, since these are only bonus criteria.

A Market-Beater

Over the long term my Lynch-inspired model has had its ups and downs, but if you've stuck with it, it's paid off. This year, it's been a particularly strong performer, with my 10-stock Lynch-based portfolio gaining 27.9% to nearly double the S&P 500. Overall since I started tracking it in July 2003, the portfolio has averaged annualized returns of 8.7%, easily beating the 5.0% annualized return for the S&P 500 (all performance figures are through June 19). The 20-stock Lynch-inspired portfolio I track has been one of my best performers, gaining 14.7% annualized over that period.

Here's a look at the stocks that currently make up my 10-stock Lynch-based portfolio:

Bridgepoint Education Inc. (BPI)
HCI Group (HCI)
Enstar Group (ESRG)
Volterra Semiconductor Corporation (VLTR)
Green Dot Corporation (GDOT)
East West Bancorp (EWBC)
Wuxi Pharmatech Inc. (WX)
AutoNavi Holdings Limited (AMAP)
Humana Inc. (HUM)
United Overseas Bank Ltd. (UOVEY)


The Stomach's The Key

While it's not a quantitative factor, there is another part of Lynch's strategy that was a critical part of his success, and it's one that is particularly relevant given the portfolio's rough recent run: Don't bail when things get bad.

Lynch recognized that the stock market was unpredictable in the short term, even to the smartest investors. In fact, he once said in an interview with American television station PBS that putting money into stocks and counting on having nice profits in a year or two is like "just like betting on red or black at the casino. ... What the market's going to do in one or two years, you don't know."

Over the long-term, however, good stocks rise like no other investment vehicle, something Lynch recognized. His philosophy: Use a proven strategy and stay in the market for the long term and you'll realize those gains; jump in and out and there's a good chance that you'll miss out on a chunk of them.

That, of course, is particularly hard to do when the market gets volatile. But Lynch said it's critical to stay disciplined: "The real key to making money in stocks," he once said, "is not to get scared out of them".



News about Validea Hot List Stocks

Chevron Corporation (CVX): Chevron has entered into an agreement with Iraq's regional Kurdish government that gives it the right to explore the Qara Dagh block located southeast of Irbil. Financial details weren't disclosed, Zacks Investment Research said. The block is about 330 square miles in size.



The Next Issue

In two weeks, we will publish another issue of the Hot List, at which time we will rebalance the portfolio. If you have any questions, please feel free to contact us at hotlist@validea.com.


Current Portfolio






Detailed Stock Analysis

Disclaimer: The analysis is from Validea's selection and interpretation of content from the guru's book or published writings, and is not from nor endorsed by the guru. See Full Disclaimer

USNA   |   HCI   |   WSM   |   LEA   |   HFC   |   CVX   |   STMP   |   VLO   |   RDS.A   |   PDCO   |  



USANA Health Sciences, Inc. develops and manufactures science-based nutritional and personal care products. The Company has operations in 15 markets worldwide, where it distributes and sells its products by way of direct selling. The Company reports operations in two geographic regions: North America and Asia Pacific, which is further divided into three sub-regions; Southeast Asia/Pacific, Greater China, and North Asia. North America includes the United States, Canada, Mexico, and direct sales from the United States to the United Kingdom and the Netherlands. Southeast Asia/Pacific includes Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Malaysia, and the Philippines; Greater China includes Hong Kong, Taiwan and China; and North Asia includes Japan and South Korea. The Company's customer base consists of two types of customers: Associates and Preferred Customers. As of December 31, 2011, the Company had 222,000 active Associates and 64,000 active Preferred Customers worldwide.





HCI Group Inc, formerly Homeowners Choice, Inc., is a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, is engaged in the property and casualty insurance business. Through Homeowners Choice Property & Casualty Insurance Company, Inc. (HCPC) and subsidiaries, primarily Homeowners Choice Managers, Inc. (HCM), Southern Administration, Inc., Claddaugh Casualty Insurance Company, Ltd., and its subsidiary, HCPCI Holdings LLC, it provides property and casualty homeowners' insurance, condominium-owners' insurance and tenants' insurance to individuals owning property in Florida. Its subsidiaries also include TV Investment Holdings LLC, which owns and operates a marina facility located in Florida; Unthink Technologies Private Limited. During the year ended December 31, 2011, it organized TV Investment Holdings LLC, HCI Holdings LLC and HCI Technical Resources, Inc.





Williams-Sonoma, Inc. is a multi-channel specialty retailer of products for the home. The direct-to-customer segment of the Company's business sells its products through its six e-commerce Websites (williams-sonoma.com, potterybarn.com, potterybarnkids.com, pbteen.com, westelm.com and rejuvenation.com) and seven direct-mail catalogs (Williams-Sonoma, Pottery Barn, Pottery Barn Kids, Pottery Barn Bed and Bath, PBteen, West Elm and Rejuvenation). Its e-commerce platform is available to customers in more than 75 countries, while its catalogs reach customers throughout the United States. The retail segment of its business sells products through its five retail store concepts (Williams-Sonoma, Pottery Barn, Pottery Barn Kids, West Elm and Rejuvenation). As of January 29, 2012, it operated 576 stores in 44 states, Washington, D.C., Canada and Puerto Rico. On November 1, 2011, the Company acquired Rejuvenation Inc.





Lear Corporation is a tier 1 supplier to the global automotive industry. The Company supplies its products to automotive manufacturers with automotive seat systems and related components, as well as electrical distribution systems and related components. The Company has two segments: seating and electrical power management systems (EPMS). The seating segment includes seat systems and related components, such as seat frames, recliner mechanisms, seat tracks, seat trim covers, headrests and seat foam. The EPMS segment includes electrical distribution systems for traditional powertrain vehicles, as well as for hybrid and electric vehicles. As of December 31, 2011, it had 20 joint ventures located throughout Asia, as well as five in North America, two in Europe and Africa and one with operations in all three regions.





HollyFrontier Corporation (HollyFrontier), formerly Holly Corporation, is a petroleum refiner, which produces light products, such as gasoline, diesel fuel, jet fuel, specialty lubricant products, and specialty and modified asphalt. HollyFrontier operates in two segments: Refining and Holly Energy Partners, L.P. (HEP). The Refining segment includes the operations of its El Dorado, Tulsa, Navajo, Cheyenne and Woods Cross Refineries and NK Asphalt. The HEP segment involves all of the operations of HEP. As of December 31, 2011, it operated five refineries having a combined crude oil processing capacity of 443,000 barrels per day that serve markets throughout the Mid-Continent, Southwest and Rocky Mountain regions of the United States. The Company merged with Frontier Oil Corporation (Frontier), on July 1, 2011. On November 9, 2011, HEP acquired from the Company certain tankage, loading rack and crude receiving assets located at its El Dorado and Cheyenne Refineries.





Chevron Corporation (Chevron) manages its investments in subsidiaries and affiliates and provides administrative, financial, management and technology support to the United States and international subsidiaries that engage in petroleum operations, chemicals operations, mining operations, power generation and energy services. Upstream operations consist primarily of exploring for, developing and producing crude oil and natural gas; processing, liquefaction, transportation and regasification associated with liquefied natural gas; transporting crude oil by international oil export pipelines; transporting, storage and marketing of natural gas; and a gas-to-liquids project. Downstream operations consist primarily of refining crude oil into petroleum products; marketing of crude oil and refined products; transporting crude oil by pipeline, motor equipment and rail car, and manufacturing and marketing of commodity petrochemicals, plastics for industrial uses and fuel and lubricant additives.





Stamps.com Inc. is a provider of Internet-based postage solutions. The Company's customers use its service to mail and ship a variety of mail pieces, including postcards, envelopes, flats and packages, using a range of United States Postal Service (the USPS) mail classes, including First Class Mail, Priority Mail, Express Mail, Media Mail, Parcel Post, and others. Its customers include individuals, small businesses, home offices, medium-size businesses and enterprises.





Valero Energy Corporation (Valero) is an independent petroleum refining and marketing company. Valero's refineries can produce conventional gasoline's, distillates, jet fuel, asphalt, petrochemicals, lubricants, and other refined products, as well as a slate of premium products, including conventional blendstock for oxygenate blending and reformulated gasoline blendstock for oxygenate blending, gasoline meeting the specifications of the California Air Resources Board, a diesel fuel, and low-sulfur and ultra-low-sulfur diesel fuel. It also owns 10 ethanol plants in the central plains region of the United States with a combined ethanol nameplate production capacity of about 1.1 billion gallons per year. It operates in three business segments: refining, ethanol, and retail. In May 2013, CST Brands Inc announced that the Company which includes Corner Store and Depanneur du Coin, spun off from Valero Energy Corporation.





Royal Dutch Shell plc (Shell) is an independent oil and gas company. The Company owns, directly or indirectly, investments in the numerous companies constituting Shell. Shell is engaged worldwide in the principal aspects of the oil and gas industry and also has interests in chemicals and other energy-related businesses. The Company operates in three segments: Upstream, Downstream and Corporate. Upstream combines the operating segments Upstream International and Upstream Americas, which are engaged in searching for and recovering crude oil and natural gas; the liquefaction and transportation of gas; the extraction of bitumen from oil sands that is converted into synthetic crude oil, and wind energy. Downstream is engaged in manufacturing; distribution and marketing activities for oil products and chemicals. Corporate represents the key support functions, comprising holdings and treasury, headquarters, central functions and Shells self-insurance activities.





Patterson Companies, Inc. (Patterson) is a distributor serving three markets: the United States companion animal (dogs, cats and other common household pets) and equine veterinary supply, and the worldwide rehabilitation and assistive products supply market. The Company operates in three segments: dental supply, veterinary supply and rehabilitation supply. As Patterson's business, Patterson Dental is a distributor of dental products in North America. Webster Veterinary (Webster) is a distributor of veterinary supplies primarily to companion-pet (dogs, cats and other common household pets) and equine veterinary clinics across the United States. Patterson Medical is a distributor of rehabilitation medical supplies and equipment. During the fiscal year ended April 28 2012 (fiscal 2012), it acquired American Veterinarian Supply Corp., Surgical Synergies Pty Ltd. and Orthoplast. In September 2012, its Patterson Dental acquired Iowa Dental Supply, LLC.





Watch List

The Watch List contains the highest scoring stocks according to our guru consensus system that are not currently in the Hot List portfolio. We provide this list both for informational purposes and for investors who are not comfortable with a portfolio of ten stocks.





Disclaimer


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Performance results are based on model portfolios and do not reflect actual trading. Actual performance will vary based on a variety of factors, including market conditions and trading costs. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Individual stocks mentioned throughout this web site may be holdings in the managed portfolios of Validea Capital Management, a separate asset management firm founded by Validea.com founder John Reese. Validea Capital Management, which is a separate legal entity and an SEC registered investment advisory firm, uses, in part, the strategies on the web site to select stocks for its clients.