Markets & Economy

Tax cuts are coming closer to reality, adding fuel to the markets and stirring the animal spirits of business leaders who have said they will use their windfalls to build and expand. The Federal Reserve is about to transition to new management with already raised expectations for economic growth next year, signaling relatively smooth sailing ahead. Technology and financial stocks have led the stock indexes higher, pushing the Dow Jones industrial average to yet another record high, trading at a multiple of 19.9 to TTM earnings. The Standard & Poor's 500 trades at a multiple of 21.9. The Energy and industrials sectors are still down for the year, however.

Some positive numbers:

  1. U.S.retail sales increased 0.8 percent, more than expected, in November as the holiday shopping season got off to a brisk start. Economists had expected a gain of 0.3 percent.
  2. Consumer prices rose 0.4 percent last month as gasoline prices rebounded, but economists had expected a bump up after a 0.1 percent increase in October.
  3. The National Association of Manufacturers said CEO optimism is at an all-time high in the 20 years of its survey. Some 94.6 percent of CEOs said they were positive about their company's outlook.
  4. Household wealth in the U.S. rose to $96.9 trillion in the third quarter and is approaching double the level it was during the 2008 financial crisis, according to the Federal Reserve.

Some not-so-positive numbers:

  1. Automakers posted mixed November sales, and the National Automobile Dealers Association said it expects new vehicle sales to decline to 16.7 million units in 2018, after dropping to 17.1 million for the full year in 2017.
  2. Unemployment in November remained at 4.1 percent, but average hourly wage growth is on a pace for 2.5 percent growth this year, below the 2.7 percent expected. Policy makers have said they are stumped about the slow wage growth.
  3. Some 4.6 million Americans are seriously behind on federal student debt payments, doubling the number of four years ago, despite a record-setting economic expansion and near-full employment.
  4. Interest rates on loans are rising after the Federal Reserve raised its short-term rate. Big banks began raising their prime lending rate on Thursday in response, which will make it more costly for businesses to borrow and ultimately trickle to consumer loans like credit cards and home equity lines of credit.

Recommended Reading

With the year drawing to a close thoughts are shifting to what the next 12 months have in store. The expectation is for more of the same, particularly if tax reform in the U.S. becomes a reality, but there are some shocks that could derail the momentum. The Fed could act more aggressively than it has signaled or there could be a disruptive geopolitical event. Here are some recent articles and blog posts:

Dow Heights Jeremy Siegel tells CNBC the Dow could hit 25,000 because of tax reform, having already hit 24,500 in recent days. He doesn't see a bear market but he believes valuations could reach a peak next year. Read more

End of BuybacksS&P 500 companies will repurchase $500 billion shares this year, the lowest number since 2012, according to a report in Barron's. Higher borrowing costs together with high share valuations, the article says, means companies will get "less bang for their buyback buck." Read more

Wein Views Byron Wein shares his thoughts in Barron's about indicators that could disrupt the economy, including the narrow yield curve, the Fed's interest rate moves, and an exogenous event such as military conflict. Read more

China stocks Societe Generale's outlook for the next 12 months says Chinese equities, euro-zone fixed income and emerging market bonds will deliver the highest returns. Read more

Low Returns Vanguard says stocks will continue to grow but at a much lower rate of return than people are used to lately. Modest global growth and tepid inflation will be reflected in continued low volatility. Read more

Market Killer When rates are low, investors reach for yield beyond what seems logical, according to a study outlined in The Wall Street Journal, which concluded that if rates rise and investors revert to less risky portfolios, equities could "be in for a big drop." Read more

Skill or LuckElm Partners co-founder and chief executive Victor Haghani, an advocate of index investing, asserts that the degree of confidence people have in their ability to pick "super-talented" fund managers is "surprising." Read more

Fundamentalfocus There is no possible way to predict the vagaries of the market, nor to fully comprehend what you "fail" to understand. Therefore, the best defense for investors is to stick to concrete data and the analysis of fundamentals -- the "known knowns." Read more

Yale Fund Fumble? The Yale Endowment, which has lagged the bull market in recent years, may need to concede it is under exposed to equities and that passive strategies have shown well in the last decade, according to Barron's. Read more

The Big Comeback Former Legg Mason star manager Bill Miller is working toward a comeback, according to the Washington Post, with two mutual funds and a newly launched hedge fund that has taken a bold bet on bitcoin. Read more

Performance Update

Since our last newsletter, the S&P 500 returned 0.2%, while the Hot List returned -6.0%. So far in 2016, the portfolio has returned 15.2% vs. 18.5% for the S&P. Since its inception in July 2003, the Hot List is far outpacing the index, having gained 256.7% vs. the S&P's 165.1% gain.

The Fallen

As we rebalance the Validea Hot List, 3 stocks leave our portfolio. These include: Argan, Inc. (AGX), Paycom Software Inc (PAYC) and Ipg Photonics Corporation (IPGP).

The Keepers

7 stocks remain in the portfolio. They are: Cooper Tire & Rubber Co (CTB), Magna International Inc. (Usa) (MGA), Thor Industries, Inc. (THO), Sanderson Farms, Inc. (SAFM), Netease Inc (Adr) (NTES), Signet Jewelers Ltd. (SIG) and Lgi Homes Inc (LGIH).

The New Additions

We are adding 3 stocks to the portfolio. These include: Toll Brothers Inc (TOL), Universal Forest Products, Inc. (UFPI) and Banco Macro Sa (Adr) (BMA).

Latest Changes

Additions  
TOLL BROTHERS INC TOL
UNIVERSAL FOREST PRODUCTS, INC. UFPI
BANCO MACRO SA (ADR) BMA
Deletions  
ARGAN, INC. AGX
PAYCOM SOFTWARE INC PAYC
IPG PHOTONICS CORPORATION IPGP

Pick a Star? Or Develop a Process?

Wall Street has a solid tradition of star money managers falling from grace as market forces outrun their ability to predict the next big winner. As we know, it's difficult to draw a direct relationship between skill and outcome, especially in investing. Even the best managers will underperform for a period of time during their careers, usually coinciding with buoyant markets, such as we see today. Winners are measured in decades, not months.

We tend to base our choices on the events of the recent past, assuming what works will continue to work and assigning the blame when things fail to forces other than ourselves. Ben Carlson of Ritholz Wealth Management has written about this phenomenon: "When we have success in our lives we tend to attribute that success to skill or hard work. When something goes wrong and we fail, we attribute it to bad luck." When choosing an asset manager, therefore, it might seem reasonable to make a decision based on a firm's track record and return history. But that isn't always the case.

Even experts have trouble predicting outcomes, according to research a decade ago by Wharton School professor Philip Tetlock. He discovered experts could explain only 20 percent of the variability of the outcomes in their own predictions. The more famous the expert, in fact, the less accurate the prediction.

Human bias causes stock pickers to fall short sometimes because they let emotion get the better of them. They can be overconfident and make inconsistent judgments. They can be short-sighted and ignore information that doesn't fit their narratives.

To highlight the problems with humans trying to predict the market, consider how often forces have defied expectations this year. The stock markets have hit dozens of record highs. The dollar is down as are Treasury yields and inflation is falling below even the Fed's own target.

Behavioral finance experts make the point that investing is rife with the illusion of skill, namely an investor's inflated confidence in his own ability to choose winning stocks. Nobel Laureate Daniel Kahneman has even argued that much of the investment industry is built on such an illusion

That's not to say that all forecasts are wrong. But even when a forecaster is correct, there's a good chance the underlying assumptions didn't include everything that influenced the outcome. That's right, there are "unknown unknowns" that gum up the process, too.

If there's no way to get around the complexities of prediction -- no way to completely answer or understand what is not known -- the best course of action is to stick to what is known, quantifiable and concrete. The known knowns.

This is why at Validea we have designed portfolios based on quantitative stock screening models that take the emotion out of investing and help us avoid buying or selling equities at the worst possible times. The models track the strategies of successful investors such as Warren Buffett, Peter Lynch and Benjamin Graham, who made their fortunes investing in strong companies with sustainable operations. By removing hunches from the selection process, the models are able to identify stable businesses with strong fundamentals based on data, the types of companies that will withstand the ups and downs of the market over the long-term.

So, instead of luck or skill, investors should focus on process - developing goals and then creating a clearly defined strategy to go about achieving them without straying. We created models that evaluate stocks systematically by sorting through market data and selecting names in a highly disciplined, consistent and repeatable way.

Our models use the following metrics:

  • Debt: since high leverage can put a strain on cash flow and make earnings figures misleading.
  • Price-to-Book Ratio:While our various guru models might define book value slightly differently from each other, the basic idea is always to determine the true value of a business.
  • Return-on-Equity:While there is no single, sure-fire way to ascertain whether or not a company has what Warren Buffett calls "durable competitive advantage," companies that do have this distinction share a fundamental strength in return-on-equity.
  • Relative Strength:This measures the price performance of a stock against the market as a whole. The higher the relative strength, the better the stock is performing relative to other stocks.

By focusing on known metrics and removing hunches from the process, we are minimizing the effect of unknowns on investment portfolios. Whether you're lucky or smart, a well-constructed investment process might be your best chance at generating returns above the market over time.

Newcomers to the Hot List:

Toll Brothers (TOL)

A builder of luxury home developments in major U.S. metropolitan areas. Its shares pass the tests of gurus James O'Shaughnessy, John Neff and Peter Lynch and score high on Validea's momentum model.

Universal Forest Products (UFPI)

An American maker of wood and wood-alternatives used in construction. Its shares pass the test of O'Shaughnessy as well as Kenneth Fisher.

Banco Macro (ADR) (BMA)

The second-largest private bank in South America, based in Argentina. Its ADRs score highly on the models tracking Peter Lynch and Warren Buffett as well as Validea's momentum screen.

News on Hot List Stocks

Sanderson Farms profit fell well short of expectations, coming in at $3.20 a share versus the consensus estimate of $3.62 a share.

LGI Homes said December 5 that it year-over-year growth in home closings was 69.2 percent in November.

Toll Brothers announced a cash dividend of 8 cents a share payable to shareholders of record as of January 12.


Portfolio Holdings
Ticker Date Added Return
NTES 11/17/2017 -3.0%
LGIH 11/17/2017 10.9%
TOL 12/15/2017 TBD
CTB 9/22/2017 -3.7%
MGA 6/2/2017 19.2%
THO 10/20/2017 12.7%
UFPI 12/15/2017 TBD
BMA 12/15/2017 TBD
SIG 10/20/2017 -19.3%
SAFM 11/18/2016 80.0%


Guru Analysis
Disclaimer: The analysis is from Validea's selection and interpretation of content from the guru's book or published writings, and is not from nor endorsed by the guru. See Full Disclaimer

NTES   |   LGIH   |   TOL   |   CTB   |   MGA   |   THO   |   UFPI   |   BMA   |   SIG   |   SAFM   |  

NETEASE INC (ADR)

Strategy: Small-Cap Growth Investor
Based on: Motley Fool

NetEase, Inc. (NetEase) is a technology company. The Company operates an interactive online community in China and is a provider of Chinese language content and services through its online games, Internet media, e-mail, e-commerce and other businesses. The Company operates through three segments: Online Game Services; Advertising Services, and E-mail, E-commerce and Others. Its online games business primarily focuses on offering personal computer (PC)-client massively multi-player online role-playing games (PC-client MMORPGs), as well as mobile games to the Chinese market. The NetEase Websites provide Internet users with Chinese language online services centered over three core service categories, which include content, community and communication. Its online advertising offerings include banner advertising, direct e-mail, sponsored special events, games, contests and other activities. It offers free and fee-based premium e-mail services to its individual users and corporate users.


PROFIT MARGIN: PASS

This methodology seeks companies with a minimum trailing 12 month after tax profit margin of 7%. The companies that pass this criterion have strong positions within their respective industries and offer greater shareholder returns. A true test of the quality of a company is that they can sustain this margin. NTES's profit margin of 25.70% passes this test.


RELATIVE STRENGTH: FAIL

The investor must look at the relative strength of the company in question. Companies whose relative strength is 90 or above (that is, the company outperforms 90% or more of the market for the past year), are considered attractive. Companies whose price has been rising much quicker than the market tend to keep rising. Although NTES's relative strength of 88 is below the acceptable level, yet it is very close. Keep an eye on the stock as it could move into the acceptable range.


COMPARE SALES AND EPS GROWTH TO THE SAME PERIOD LAST YEAR: FAIL

Companies must demonstrate both revenue and net income growth of at least 25% as compared to the prior year. These growth rates give you the dynamic companies that you are looking for. These rates for NTES (1,594.12% for EPS, and 3.30% for Sales) are not good enough to pass.


INSIDER HOLDINGS: PASS

NTES's insiders should own at least 10% (they own 44.44% ) of the company's outstanding shares which is extremely attractive since the minimum requirement is 10%. A high percentage indicates that the insiders are confident that the company will do well.


CASH FLOW FROM OPERATIONS: PASS

A positive cash flow is typically used for internal expansion, acquisitions, dividend payments, etc. A company that generates rather than consumes cash is in much better shape to fund such activities on their own, rather than needing to borrow funds to do so. NTES's free cash flow of $13.50 per share passes this test.


PROFIT MARGIN CONSISTENCY: FAIL

The profit margin in the past must be consistently increasing. The profit margin of NTES has been inconsistent in the past three years (Current year: 30.40%, Last year: 29.54%, Two years ago: 40.61%), which is unacceptable. This inconsistency will carryover directly to the company's bottom line, or earnings per share.


R&D AS A PERCENTAGE OF SALES: NEUTRAL

This criterion is not critically important for companies that are not high-tech or medical stocks because they are not as R&D dependant as companies within those sectors. Not much emphasis should be placed on this test in NTES's case.


CASH AND CASH EQUIVALENTS: PASS

NTES has a large amount of cash $833.0 million on hand. Although this criteria does not apply to companies of this size, we define anything greater than $500 million in cash as having 'a lot of cash' to allow analysis of these companies. A company like NTES has the ability to pay off debt (if it has any) or acquire other companies. Most importantly, good operations generate cash.


ACCOUNT RECEIVABLE TO SALES: PASS

This methodology wants to make sure that a company's accounts receivable do not get significantly out of line with sales. It's a warning sign if a company's accounts receivable relative to sales increases significantly when compared to the previous year. Up to a 30% increase is allowed, but no more. Accounts Receivable to Sales for NTES was 12.92% last year, while for this year it is 11.14%. Since the AR to sales is decreasing by -1.78% the stock passes this criterion.


LONG TERM DEBT/EQUITY RATIO: PASS

NTES's trailing twelve-month Debt/Equity ratio (0.00%) is at a great level according to this methodology because the superior companies that you are looking for don't need to borrow money in order to grow.


"THE FOOL RATIO" (P/E TO GROWTH): FAIL

The "Fool Ratio" is an extremely important aspect of this analysis. The methodology says consider holding the shares when the company's Fool Ratio is greater than 0.65 (NTES's is 0.73), but initial purchases in this range are unfavorable.

The following criteria for NTES are less important which means you would place less emphasis on them when making your investment decision using this strategy:

AVERAGE SHARES OUTSTANDING: PASS

NTES has not been significantly increasing the number of shares outstanding within recent years which is a good sign. NTES currently has 133.0 million shares outstanding. This means the company is not taking any measures, with regards to the number of shares, that will dilute or devalue the stock.


SALES: FAIL

Companies with sales less than $500 million should be chosen. It is among these small-cap stocks that investors can find "an uncut gem", ones that institutions won't be able to buy yet. NTES's sales of $7,806.4 million based on trailing 12 month sales, are too high and would therefore fail the test. It is companies with $500 million or less in sales that are most likely to double or triple in size in the next few years.


DAILY DOLLAR VOLUME: FAIL

NTES does not pass the Daily Dollar Volume (DDV of $558.4 million) test. It exceeds the maximum requirement of $25 million. Stocks that fail the test are too liquid for a small individual investor and many institutions have already discovered it.


PRICE: PASS

This is a very insignificant criterion for this methodology. But basically, low prices are chosen because "small numbers multiply more rapidly than large ones" and the potential for big returns expands. NTES with a price of $356.43 passes the price test, even though it doesn't fall in the preferred range. The price should be above $7 in order to eliminate penny stocks and below $20 since most stocks in this price range are undiscovered by the institutions.


INCOME TAX PERCENTAGE: FAIL

NTES's income tax paid expressed as a percentage of pretax income either this year (15.13%) or last year (15.70%) is below 20% which is cause for concern. Because the tax rate is below 20% this could mean that the earnings that were reported are unrealistically inflated due to the lower level of income tax paid. However, we have utilized a sophisticated formula so that the appropriate figures reflect a 'normal' tax rate (35%).


LGI HOMES INC

Strategy: Small-Cap Growth Investor
Based on: Motley Fool

LGI Homes, Inc. is a homebuilder and land developer. The Company is engaged in the design, construction, marketing and sale of new homes in markets in Texas, Arizona, Florida, Georgia, New Mexico, South Carolina, North Carolina, Colorado, Washington and Tennessee. The Company operates through five segments: the Texas division, the Southwest division, the Southeast division, the Florida division and the Northwest division. The Texas division includes homebuilding operations in Houston, Dallas/Fort Worth, San Antonio and Austin locations. The Southwest division includes homebuilding operations in Phoenix, Tucson, Albuquerque, Denver and Colorado Springs locations. The Southeast division includes homebuilding operations in Atlanta, Charlotte and Nashville locations. The Florida division includes homebuilding operations in Tampa, Orlando, Fort Myers and Jacksonville locations. The Northwest division includes homebuilding operations in Seattle location.


PROFIT MARGIN: PASS

This methodology seeks companies with a minimum trailing 12 month after tax profit margin of 7%. The companies that pass this criterion have strong positions within their respective industries and offer greater shareholder returns. A true test of the quality of a company is that they can sustain this margin. LGIH's profit margin of 9.26% passes this test.


RELATIVE STRENGTH: PASS

The investor must look at the relative strength of the company in question. Companies whose relative strength is 90 or above (that is, the company outperforms 90% or more of the market for the past year), are considered attractive. Companies whose price has been rising much quicker than the market tend to keep rising. LGIH, with a relative strength of 95, satisfies this test.


COMPARE SALES AND EPS GROWTH TO THE SAME PERIOD LAST YEAR: PASS

Companies must demonstrate both revenue and net income growth of at least 25% as compared to the prior year. These growth rates give you the dynamic companies that you are looking for. These rates for LGIH (62.79% for EPS, and 69.16% for Sales) are good enough to pass.


INSIDER HOLDINGS: PASS

LGIH's insiders should own at least 10% (they own 13.59% ) of the company's outstanding shares which is the minimum required. A high percentage typically indicates that the insiders are confident that the company will do well.


CASH FLOW FROM OPERATIONS: FAIL

A positive cash flow is typically used for internal expansion, acquisitions, dividend payments, etc. A company that generates rather than consumes cash is in much better shape to fund such activities on their own, rather than needing to borrow funds to do so. LGIH's free cash flow of $-4.94 per share fails this test.


PROFIT MARGIN CONSISTENCY: PASS

LGIH's profit margin has been consistent or even increasing over the past three years (Current year: 8.95%, Last year: 8.38%, Two years ago: 7.36%), passing the requirement. It is a sign of good management and a healthy and competitive enterprise.


R&D AS A PERCENTAGE OF SALES: NEUTRAL

This criterion is not critically important for companies that are not high-tech or medical stocks because they are not as R&D dependant as companies within those sectors. Not much emphasis should be placed on this test in LGIH's case.


CASH AND CASH EQUIVALENTS: FAIL

LGIH does not have a sufficiently large amount of cash, $49.52 million, on hand relative to its size. Although this criteria does not apply to companies of this size, we defined anything greater than $500 million in cash as having 'a lot of cash' to allow analysis of these companies. LGIH will have more of a difficult time paying off debt (if it has any) or acquiring other companies than a company that passes this criterion.


INVENTORY TO SALES: PASS

This methodology strongly believes that companies, especially small ones, should have tight control over inventory. It's a warning sign if a company's inventory relative to sales increases significantly when compared to the previous year. Up to a 30% increase is allowed, but no more. Inventory to Sales for LGIH was 84.29% last year, while for this year it is 85.61%. Although the inventory to sales is rising, it is below the max 30% that is allowed. The investor can still consider the stock if all other criteria appear very attractive.


ACCOUNT RECEIVABLE TO SALES: PASS

This methodology wants to make sure that a company's accounts receivable do not get significantly out of line with sales. It's a warning sign if a company's accounts receivable relative to sales increases significantly when compared to the previous year. Up to a 30% increase is allowed, but no more. Accounts Receivable to Sales for LGIH was 2.75% last year, while for this year it is 2.04%. Since the AR to sales is decreasing by -0.71% the stock passes this criterion.


LONG TERM DEBT/EQUITY RATIO: FAIL

LGIH's trailing twelve-month Debt/Equity ratio (103.90%) is too high, according to this methodology. You can find other more superior companies that do not have to borrow money in order to grow.


"THE FOOL RATIO" (P/E TO GROWTH): PASS

The "Fool Ratio" is an extremely important aspect of this analysis. If the company has attractive fundamentals and its Fool Ratio is 0.5 or less (LGIH's is 0.26), the shares are looked upon favorably. These high quality companies can often wind up as the biggest winners. LGIH passes this test.

The following criteria for LGIH are less important which means you would place less emphasis on them when making your investment decision using this strategy:

AVERAGE SHARES OUTSTANDING: PASS

LGIH has not been significantly increasing the number of shares outstanding within recent years which is a good sign. LGIH currently has 24.0 million shares outstanding. This means the company is not taking any measures, with regards to the number of shares, that will dilute or devalue the stock.


SALES: FAIL

Companies with sales less than $500 million should be chosen. It is among these small-cap stocks that investors can find "an uncut gem", ones that institutions won't be able to buy yet. LGIH's sales of $1,089.8 million based on trailing 12 month sales, are too high and would therefore fail the test. It is companies with $500 million or less in sales that are most likely to double or triple in size in the next few years.


DAILY DOLLAR VOLUME: PASS

LGIH passes the Daily Dollar Volume (DDV of $22.1 million) test. It is required that this number be less than $25 million because these are the stocks that remain relatively undiscovered by institutions. "You'll be scoring touchdowns against the big guys on your turf."


PRICE: PASS

This is a very insignificant criterion for this methodology. But basically, low prices are chosen because "small numbers multiply more rapidly than large ones" and the potential for big returns expands. LGIH with a price of $70.46 passes the price test, even though it doesn't fall in the preferred range. The price should be above $7 in order to eliminate penny stocks and below $20 since most stocks in this price range are undiscovered by the institutions.


INCOME TAX PERCENTAGE: PASS

LGIH's income tax paid expressed as a percentage of pretax income this year was (33.99%) and last year (34.19%) are greater than 20% which is an acceptable level. If the tax rate is below 20% this could mean that the earnings that were reported were unrealistically inflated due to the lower level of income tax paid. This is a concern.


TOLL BROTHERS INC

Strategy: Growth Investor
Based on: Martin Zweig

Toll Brothers, Inc. is engaged in designing, building, marketing, selling and arranging financing for detached and attached homes in luxury residential communities. The Company operates through two segments: Traditional Home Building and Toll Brothers City Living (City Living). Within the Traditional Home Building segment, it operates in five geographic segments in the United States: the North, consisting of Connecticut, Illinois, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, New Jersey and New York; the Mid-Atlantic, consisting of Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania and Virginia; the South, consisting of Florida, North Carolina and Texas; the West, consisting of Arizona, Colorado, Nevada and Washington, and California. City Living is the Company's urban development division. Its products include Traditional Home Building Product and City Living Product. Its Traditional Home Building Product includes detached homes, move-up, executive, estate, and active-adult and age-qualified lines of home.


P/E RATIO: PASS

The P/E of a company must be greater than 5 to eliminate weak companies, but not more than 3 times the current Market P/E because the situation is much too risky, and never greater than 43. TOL's P/E is 14.81, based on trailing 12 month earnings, while the current market PE is 25.00. Therefore, it passes the first test.


REVENUE GROWTH IN RELATION TO EPS GROWTH: PASS

Revenue Growth must not be substantially less than earnings growth. For earnings to continue to grow over time they must be supported by a comparable or better sales growth rate and not just by cost cutting or other non-sales measures. TOL's revenue growth is 20.24%, while it's earnings growth rate is 18.63%, based on the average of the 3, 4 and 5 year historical eps growth rates. Therefore, TOL passes this criterion.


SALES GROWTH RATE: FAIL

Another important issue regarding sales growth is that the rate of quarterly sales growth is rising. To evaluate this, the change from this quarter last year to the present quarter (9.3%) must be examined, and then compared to the previous quarter last year compared to the previous quarter (18.3%) of the current year. Sales growth for the prior must be greater than the latter. For TOL this criterion has not been met and fails this test.


The earnings numbers of a company should be examined from various different angles. Three of these angles are stability in the trend of earnings, earnings persistence, and earnings acceleration. To evaluate stability, the stock has to pass the following four criteria.


CURRENT QUARTER EARNINGS: PASS

The first of these criteria is that the current EPS be positive. TOL's EPS ($1.17) pass this test.


QUARTERLY EARNINGS ONE YEAR AGO: PASS

The EPS for the quarter one year ago must be positive. TOL's EPS for this quarter last year ($0.67) pass this test.


POSITIVE EARNINGS GROWTH RATE FOR CURRENT QUARTER: PASS

The growth rate of the current quarter's earnings compared to the same quarter a year ago must also be positive. TOL's growth rate of 74.63% passes this test.


EARNINGS GROWTH RATE FOR THE PAST SEVERAL QUARTERS: FAIL

Compare the earnings growth rate of the previous three quarters with long-term EPS growth rate. Earnings growth in the previous 3 quarters should be at least half of the long-term EPS growth rate. Half of the long-term EPS growth rate for TOL is 9.32%. This should be less than the growth rates for the 3 previous quarters which are 5.00%, 43.14% and 42.62%. TOL does not pass this test, which means that it does not have good, reasonably steady earnings.


This strategy looks at the rate which earnings grow and evaluates this rate of growth from different angles. The 4 tests immediately following are detailed below.


EPS GROWTH FOR CURRENT QUARTER MUST BE GREATER THAN PRIOR 3 QUARTERS: PASS

If the growth rate of the prior three quarter's earnings, 32.89%, (versus the same three quarters a year earlier) is less than the growth rate of the current quarter earnings, 74.63%, (versus the same quarter one year ago) then the stock passes.


EPS GROWTH FOR CURRENT QUARTER MUST BE GREATER THAN THE HISTORICAL GROWTH RATE: PASS

The EPS growth rate for the current quarter, 74.63% must be greater than or equal to the historical growth which is 18.63%. TOL would therefore pass this test.


EARNINGS PERSISTENCE: PASS

Companies must show persistent yearly earnings growth. To fulfill this requirement a company's earnings must increase each year for a five year period. TOL, whose annual EPS growth before extraordinary items for the previous 5 years (from the earliest to the most recent fiscal year) were 0.97, 1.84, 1.98, 2.18 and 3.16, passes this test.


LONG-TERM EPS GROWTH: PASS

One final earnings test required is that the long-term earnings growth rate must be at least 15% per year. TOL's long-term growth rate of 18.63%, based on the average of the 3, 4 and 5 year historical eps growth rates, passes this test.


TOTAL DEBT/EQUITY RATIO: FAIL

A final criterion is that a company must not have a high level of debt. A high level of total debt, due to high interest expenses, can have a very negative effect on earnings if business moderately turns down. If a company does have a high level, an investor may want to avoid this stock altogether. TOL's Debt/Equity (71.06%) is considered high relative to its industry (50.24%) and fails this test.


INSIDER TRANSACTIONS: PASS

A factor that adds to a stock's attractiveness is if insider buy transactions number 3 or more, while insider sell transactions are zero. Zweig calls this an insider buy signal. For TOL, this criterion has not been met (insider sell transactions are 179, while insiders buying number 101). Despite the fact that insider sells out number insider buys for this company, Zweig considers even one insider buy transaction enough to prevent an insider sell signal, therefore there is not an insider sell signal and the stock passes this criterion.


COOPER TIRE & RUBBER CO

Strategy: P/E/Growth Investor
Based on: Peter Lynch

Cooper Tire & Rubber Company is a manufacturer and marketer of replacement tires. The Company specializes in the design, manufacture, marketing and sales of passenger car, light truck, medium truck, motorcycle, and racing tires. The Company operates through four segments: North America, Latin America, Europe, and Asia. The North America segment comprises its operations in the United States and Canada. The Americas Tire Operations segment manufactures and markets passenger car and light truck tires, for sale in the United States replacement markets. The Latin America segment comprises its operations in Mexico, Central America, and South America. The European segment has operations in the United Kingdom and the Republic of Serbia. Its the United Kingdom entity manufactures and markets passenger car, light truck, motorcycle and racing tires and tire retread material. As of December 31, 2016, the Company operated nine manufacturing facilities and 20 distribution centers in 10 countries.


DETERMINE THE CLASSIFICATION:

CTB is considered a "True Stalwart", according to this methodology, as its earnings growth of 15.38% lies within a moderate 10%-19% range and its annual sales of $2,882 million are greater than the multi billion dollar level. This methodology looks for the "Stalwart" securities to gain 30%-50% in value over a two year period if they can be purchased at an attractive price based on the P/E to Growth ratio. CTB is attractive if CTB can hold its own during a recession.


INVENTORY TO SALES: PASS

When inventories increase faster than sales, it is a red flag. However an increase of up to 5% is considered bearable if all other ratios appear attractive. Inventory to sales for CTB was 13.88% last year, while for this year it is 16.07%. Since inventory has been rising, this methodology would not look favorably at the stock but would not completely eliminate it from consideration as the inventory increase (2.20%) is below 5%.


YIELD ADJUSTED P/E TO GROWTH (PEG) RATIO: PASS

The Yield-adjusted P/E/G ratio for CTB (0.53), based on the average of the 3, 4 and 5 year historical eps growth rates, is O.K.


EARNINGS PER SHARE: PASS

The EPS for a stalwart company must be positive. CTB's EPS ($3.88) would satisfy this criterion.


TOTAL DEBT/EQUITY RATIO: PASS

This methodology would consider the Debt/Equity ratio for CTB (28.43%) to be acceptable (equity is three to ten times debt). This ratio is one quick way to determine the financial strength of the company.


FREE CASH FLOW: NEUTRAL

The Free Cash Flow/Price ratio, though not a requirement, is considered a bonus if it is above 35%. A positive Cash Flow (the higher the better) separates a wonderfully reliable investment from a shaky one. This methodology prefers not to invest in companies that rely heavily on capital spending. This ratio for CTB (5.92%) is too low to add to the attractiveness of the stock. Keep in mind, however, that it does not adversely affect the company as it is a bonus criteria.


NET CASH POSITION: NEUTRAL

Another bonus for a company is having a Net Cash/Price ratio above 30%. Lynch defines net cash as cash and marketable securities minus long term debt. According to this methodology, a high value for this ratio dramatically cuts down on the risk of the security. The Net Cash/Price ratio for CTB (11.73%) is too low to add to the attractiveness of this company. Keep in mind, however, that it does not adversely affect the company as it is a bonus criteria.


MAGNA INTERNATIONAL INC. (USA)

Strategy: Contrarian Investor
Based on: David Dreman

Magna International Inc. (Magna) is a global automotive supplier. The Company's segments are North America, Europe, Asia, Rest of World, and Corporate and Other. The Company's product capabilities include producing body, chassis, exterior, seating, powertrain, electronic, active driver assistance, vision, closure, and roof systems and modules, as well as vehicle engineering and contract manufacturing. The Company has over 320 manufacturing operations and approximately 100 product development, engineering and sales centers in over 30 countries. It provides a range of body, chassis and engineering solutions to its original equipment manufacturer (OEM) customers. It has capabilities in powertrain design, development, testing and manufacturing. It offers bumper fascia systems, exterior trim and modular systems. It offers exterior and interior mirror systems. It offers sealing, trim, engineered glass and module systems. It offers softtops, retractable hardtops, modular tops and hardtops.

MARKET CAP: PASS

Medium to large-sized companies (the largest 1500 companies) should be chosen, because they are more in the public eye. Furthermore, the investor is exposed to less risk of "accounting gimmickry", and companies of this size have more staying power. MGA has a market cap of $19,807 million, therefore passing the test.


EARNINGS TREND: FAIL

A company should show a rising trend in the reported earnings for the most recent quarters. MGA's EPS for the latest quarter is not greater than the prior quarter, (from earliest to most recent quarter) 1.48, 1.36. Hence the stock fails this test, but the investor should evaluate this company qualitatively to see if it qualifies under this methodology's "exception rule".


EPS GROWTH RATE IN THE IMMEDIATE PAST AND FUTURE: FAIL

This methodology likes to see companies with an EPS growth rate higher than the S&P in the immediate past and a likelihood that this trend will continue in the near future. MGA fails this test as its EPS growth rate for the past 6 months (-11.11%) does not beat that of the S&P (12.57%).


This methodology would utilize four separate criteria to determine if MGA is a contrarian stock. In order to eliminate weak companies we have stipulated that the stock should pass at least two of the following four major criteria in order to receive "Some Interest".


P/E RATIO: PASS

The P/E of a company should be in the bottom 20% of the overall market. MGA's P/E of 9.86, based on trailing 12 month earnings, meets the bottom 20% criterion (below 13.81), and therefore passes this test.


PRICE/CASH FLOW (P/CF) RATIO: PASS

The P/CF of a company should be in the bottom 20% of the overall market. MGA's P/CF of 5.97 meets the bottom 20% criterion (below 7.43) and therefore passes this test.


PRICE/BOOK (P/B) VALUE: FAIL

The P/B value of a company should be in the bottom 20% of the overall market. MGA's P/B is currently 1.83, which does not meet the bottom 20% criterion (below 1.10), and it therefore fails this test.


PRICE/DIVIDEND (P/D) RATIO: FAIL

The P/D ratio for a company should be in the bottom 20% of the overall market (that is the yield should be in the top 20%). MGA's P/D of 50.25 does not meet the bottom 20% criterion (below 20.62), and it therefore fails this test.


This methodology maintains that investors should look for as many healthy financial ratios as possible to ascertain the financial strength of the company. These criteria are detailed below.


CURRENT RATIO: FAIL

A prospective company must have a strong Current Ratio (greater than or equal to the average of it's industry [1.54] or greater than 2). This is one identifier of financially strong companies, according to this methodology. MGA's current ratio of 1.26 fails the test.


PAYOUT RATIO: PASS

A good indicator that a company has the ability to raise its dividend is a low payout ratio. The payout ratio for MGA is 18.80%, while its historical payout ratio has been 24.61%. Therefore, it passes the payout criterion.


RETURN ON EQUITY: PASS

The company should have a high ROE, as this helps to ensure that there are no structural flaws in the company. This methodology feels that the ROE should be greater than the top one third of ROE from among the top 1500 large cap stocks, which is 17.41%, and would consider anything over 27% to be staggering. The ROE for MGA of 20.46% is high enough to pass this criterion.


PRE-TAX PROFIT MARGINS: FAIL

This methodology looks for pre-tax profit margins of at least 8%, and considers anything over 22% to be phenomenal. MGA's pre-tax profit margin is 7.63%, thus failing this criterion.


YIELD: FAIL

The company in question should have a yield that is high and that can be maintained or increased. MGA's current yield is 1.99%, while the market yield is 2.40%. MGA fails this test.


LOOK AT THE TOTAL DEBT/EQUITY: PASS

The company must have a low Debt/Equity ratio, which indicates a strong balance sheet. The Debt/Equity ratio should not be greater than 20% or should be less than the average Debt/Equity for its industry of 123.07%. MGA's Total Debt/Equity of 33.95% is considered acceptable.


THOR INDUSTRIES, INC.

Strategy: Growth/Value Investor
Based on: James P. O'Shaughnessy

Thor Industries, Inc. manufactures a range of recreational vehicles (RVs) in the United States and sells those vehicles primarily in the United States and Canada. The Company's segments include towable recreational vehicles, which consists of the operations of Airstream, Inc. (Airstream) (towable); Heartland Recreational Vehicles, LLC (Heartland) (including Bison Coach, LLC (Bison), Cruiser RV, LLC (CRV) and DRV, LLC (DRV)); Jayco, Corp. (Jayco) (including Jayco towable, Starcraft and Highland Ridge), Keystone RV Company (Keystone) (including CrossRoads and Dutchmen) and K.Z., Inc. (KZ) (including Livin' Lite RV, Inc. (Livin' Lite)); motorized recreational vehicles, which consists of the operations of Airstream (motorized), Jayco (including Jayco motorized and Entegra Coach) and Thor Motor Coach, Inc. (Thor Motor Coach), and Other, which includes the operations of its subsidiary, Postle Operating, LLC (Postle).


MARKET CAP: PASS

The first requirement of the Cornerstone Growth Strategy is that the company has a market capitalization of at least $150 million. This will screen out the companies that are too illiquid for most investors, but still include a small growth company. THO, with a market cap of $7,848 million, passes this criterion.


EARNINGS PER SHARE PERSISTENCE: PASS

The Cornerstone Growth methodology looks for companies that show persistent earnings growth without regard to magnitude. To fulfill this requirement, a company's earnings must increase each year for a five year period. THO, whose annual EPS before extraordinary items for the last 5 years (from earliest to the most recent fiscal year) were 2.86, 3.29, 3.79, 4.91 and 7.09, passes this test.


PRICE/SALES RATIO: PASS

The Price/Sales ratio should be below 1.5. This value criterion, coupled with the growth criterion, identify growth stocks that are still cheap to buy. THO's Price/Sales ratio of 1.01, based on trailing 12 month sales, passes this criterion.


RELATIVE STRENGTH: PASS

The final criterion for the Cornerstone Growth Strategy requires that the Relative Strength of the company be among the top 50 of the stocks screened using the previous criterion. This gives you the opportunity to buy the growth stocks you are searching for just as the market is embracing them. THO, whose relative strength is 83, is in the top 50 and would pass this last criterion.


UNIVERSAL FOREST PRODUCTS, INC.

Strategy: P/E/Growth Investor
Based on: Peter Lynch

Universal Forest Products, Inc. is a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, supplies wood, wood composite and other products to three primary markets, such as retail, construction and industrial. Its segments include North, South, West, Alternative Materials, International, idX Holdings, Inc. (idX) and Corporate divisions. idX is a designer, manufacturer and installer of in-store environments. It designs, manufactures and markets wood and wood-alternative products for national home centers and other retailers; structural lumber and other products for the manufactured housing industry; engineered wood components for residential and commercial construction; specialty wood packaging, components and packing materials for various industries, and customized interior fixtures used in a range of retail stores, commercial and other structures. Its customers comprising retail market are national home center retailers and retail-oriented regional lumberyards, among others.


DETERMINE THE CLASSIFICATION:

This methodology would consider UFPI a "fast-grower".


P/E/GROWTH RATIO: PASS

The investor should examine the P/E (20.66) relative to the growth rate (52.39%), based on the average of the 3, 4 and 5 year historical eps growth rates, for a company. This is a quick way of determining the fairness of the price. In this particular case, the P/E/G ratio for UFPI (0.39) is very favorable.


SALES AND P/E RATIO: PASS

For companies with sales greater than $1 billion, this methodology likes to see that the P/E ratio remain below 40. Large companies can have a difficult time maintaining a growth high enough to support a P/E above this threshold. UFPI, whose sales are $3,834.7 million, needs to have a P/E below 40 to pass this criterion. UFPI's P/E of (20.66) is considered acceptable.


INVENTORY TO SALES: PASS

When inventories increase faster than sales, it is a red flag. However an increase of up to 5% is considered bearable if all other ratios appear attractive. Inventory to sales for UFPI was 10.56% last year, while for this year it is 12.26%. Since inventory has been rising, this methodology would not look favorably at the stock but would not completely eliminate it from consideration as the inventory increase (1.70%) is below 5%.


EPS GROWTH RATE: FAIL

This methodology favors companies that have several years of fast earnings growth, as these companies have a proven formula for growth that in many cases can continue many more years. This methodology likes to see earnings growth in the range of 20% to 50%, as earnings growth over 50% may be unsustainable. The EPS growth rate for UFPI is 52.4%, based on the average of the 3, 4 and 5 year historical eps growth rates, which is considered too fast.


TOTAL DEBT/EQUITY RATIO: PASS

This methodology would consider the Debt/Equity ratio for UFPI (18.67%) to be acceptable (equity is three to ten times debt). This ratio is one quick way to determine the financial strength of the company.


FREE CASH FLOW: NEUTRAL

The Free Cash Flow/Price ratio, though not a requirement, is considered a bonus if it is above 35%. A positive Cash Flow (the higher the better) separates a wonderfully reliable investment from a shaky one. This methodology prefers not to invest in companies that rely heavily on capital spending. This ratio for UFPI (4.58%) is too low to add to the attractiveness of the stock. Keep in mind, however, that it does not adversely affect the company as it is a bonus criteria.


NET CASH POSITION: NEUTRAL

Another bonus for a company is having a Net Cash/Price ratio above 30%. Lynch defines net cash as cash and marketable securities minus long term debt. According to this methodology, a high value for this ratio dramatically cuts down on the risk of the security. The Net Cash/Price ratio for UFPI (-4.61%) is too low to add to the attractiveness of this company. Keep in mind, however, that it does not adversely affect the company as it is a bonus criteria.


BANCO MACRO SA (ADR)

Strategy: Patient Investor
Based on: Warren Buffett

Banco Macro SA is an Argnetina-based financial institution (the Bank) that offers traditional bank products and services to companies, including those operating in regional economies, as well as to individuals. In addition, the Bank performs certain transactions through its subsidiaries, including mainly Banco del Tucuman, Macro Bank Ltd, Macro Securities SA, Macro Fiducia SA and Macro Fondos SGFCI SA. It has approximately two categories of customers, such as retail customers, including individuals and entrepreneurs and corporate customers, which include small, medium and large companies and major corporations. In addition, it provides services to over four provincial governments. It provides its corporate customers with traditional banking products and services, such as deposits, lending (including overdraft facilities), check cashing advances and factoring, guaranteed loans and credit lines for financing foreign trade and cash management services.

STAGE 1: "Is this a Buffett type company?"

A bedrock principle for Buffett is that his type of company has a "durable competitive advantage" as compared to being a "price competitive" or "commodity" type of business. Companies with a "durable competitive advantage" are more likely to be found in these sub-industries: Brand Name Fast Food Restaurants, Brand Name Beverages, Brand Name Foods, Brand Name Toiletries and Household Products, Brand Name Clothing, Brand Name Prescription Drugs, Advertising, Advertising Agencies, TV, Newspapers, Magazines, Direct Mail, Repetitive Services for Businesses, Low Cost Producers of Insurance, furniture, or Low Cost Retailers. While you should be easily able to explain where the company's pricing power comes from (i.e. a strong regional brand image, a business tollgate, its main products are #1 or # 2 in its field and has been on the market for years and hasn't changed at all, a consumer or business ends up buying the same product many times in a year, etc. or having the lowest production cost among its competition), there are certain figures that one can look at that can qualify the company as having a durable competitive advantage.


LOOK FOR EARNINGS PREDICTABILITY: PASS

Buffett likes companies to have solid, stable earnings that are continually expanding. This allows him to accurately predict future earnings. Annual earnings per share from earliest to most recent were 0.03, 0.06, 0.10, 0.08, 0.12, 0.15, 0.24, 0.34, 0.49, 0.64. Buffett would consider BMA's earnings predictable, although earnings have declined 1 time(s) in the past seven years, with the most recent decline 7 years ago. The dips have totaled 20.0%. BMA's long term historical EPS growth rate is 35.8%, based on the 10 year average EPS growth rate, and it is expected to grow earnings 4.8% per year in the future, based on the analysts' consensus estimated long term growth rate. For the purposes of our analysis, we will use the more conservative of the two EPS growth numbers.


LOOK FOR CONSISTENTLY HIGHER THAN AVERAGE RETURN ON EQUITY: PASS

Buffett likes companies with above average return on equity of at least 15% or better, as this is an indicator that the company has a durable competitive advantage. US corporations have, on average, returned about 12% on equity over the last 30 years. The average ROE for BMA, over the last ten years, is 25.2%, which is high enough to pass. It is not enough that the average be at least 15%. For each of the last 10 years, with the possible exception of the last fiscal year, the ROE must be at least 10% for Buffett to feel comfortable that the ROE is consistent. In addition, the average ROE over the last 3 years must also exceed 15%. The ROE for the last 10 years, from earliest to latest, is 13.9%, 22.9%, 28.9%, 20.4%, 24.4%, 24.3%, 27.8%, 29.7%, 30.9%, 29.0%, and the average ROE over the last 3 years is 29.9%, thus passing this criterion.


LOOK FOR CONSISTENTLY HIGHER THAN AVERAGE RETURN ON ASSETS: PASS

Buffett also requires, for financial companies, that the average Return On Assets (ROA) be at least 1% and consistent. Return On Assets is defined as the net earnings of the business divided by the total assets of the business. The average ROA for BMA, over the last ten years, is 3.4%, which is high enough to pass. It is not enough that the average be at least 1%. For each of the last 10 years, with the possible exception of the last fiscal year, the ROA must be at least 1% for Buffett to feel comfortable that the ROA is consistent. The ROA for the last 10 years, from earliest to latest, is 1.9%, 2.9%, 3.6%, 2.5%, 2.8%, 3.1%, 4.0%, 4.6%, 4.7%, 4.1%, thus passing this criterion.


LOOK AT CAPITAL EXPENDITURES: PASS

Buffett likes companies that do not have major capital expenditures. That is, he looks for companies that do not need to spend a ton of money on major upgrades of plant and equipment or on research and development to stay competitive. BMA's free cash flow per share of $11.07 is positive, indicating that the company is generating more cash that it is consuming. This is a favorable sign, and so the company passes this criterion.


LOOK AT MANAGEMENT'S USE OF RETAINED EARNINGS: PASS

Buffett likes to see if management has spent retained earnings in a way that benefits shareholders. To figure this out, Buffett takes the total amount of retained earnings over the previous ten years of $1.99 and compares it to the gain in EPS over the same period of $0.61. BMA's management has proven it can earn shareholders a 30.7% return on the earnings they kept. This return is more than acceptable to Buffett. Essentially, management is doing a great job putting the retained earnings to work.


HAS THE COMPANY BEEN BUYING BACK SHARES: BONUS PASS

Buffett likes to see falling shares outstanding, which indicates that the company has been repurchasing shares. This indicates that management has been using excess capital to increase shareholder value. BMA's shares outstanding have fallen over the past five years from 573,250,000 to 69,000,000, thus passing this criterion. This is a bonus criterion and will not adversely affect the ability of a stock to pass the strategy as a whole if it is failed.

The preceding concludes Buffett's qualitative analysis. If and when he gets positive responses to all the above criteria, he would then proceed with a price analysis. The price analysis will determine whether or not the stock should be bought. The following is how he would evaluate BMA quantitatively.

STAGE 2: "Should I buy at this price?" Although a firm may be a Buffett type company, he won't invest in it unless he can get a favorable price that allows him a great long term return.


CALCULATE THE INITIAL RATE OF RETURN: [No Pass/Fail]

Buffett compares his type of stocks to bonds, and likes to see what a company's initial rate of return is. To calculate the initial rate of return, take the trailing 12-month EPS of $7.13 and divide it by the current market price of $115.77. An investor, purchasing BMA, could expect to receive a 6.16% initial rate of return. Furthermore, he or she could expect the rate to increase 4.8% per year, based on the analysts' consensus estimated long term growth rate, as this is how fast earnings are growing.


COMPARE THE INITIAL RATE OF RETURN WITH THE LONG-TERM TREASURY YIELD: PASS

Buffett favors companies in which the initial rate of return is around the long-term treasury yield. Nonetheless, he has invested in companies with low initial rates of return, as long as the yield is expected to expand rapidly. Currently, the long-term treasury yield is about 2.25%. Compare this with BMA's initial yield of 6.16%, which will expand at an annual rate of 4.8%, based on the analysts' consensus estimated long term growth rate. The company is the better choice, as the initial rate of return is close to or above the long term bond yield and is expanding.


CALCULATE THE FUTURE EPS: [No Pass/Fail]

BMA currently has a book value of $34.66. It is safe to say that if BMA can preserve its average rate of return on equity of 25.2% and continues to retain 84.32% of its earnings, it will be able to sustain an earnings growth rate of 21.3% and it will have a book value of $238.28 in ten years. If it can still earn 25.2% on equity in ten years, then expected EPS will be $60.09.


CALCULATE THE FUTURE STOCK PRICE BASED ON THE AVERAGE ROE METHOD: [No Pass/Fail]

Now take the expected future EPS of $60.09 and multiply them by the lower of the 5 year average P/E ratio or current P/E ratio (16.1) (5 year average P/E in this case), which is 7.4 and you get BMA's projected future stock price of $442.85.


CALCULATE THE EXPECTED RATE OF RETURN BASED ON THE AVERAGE ROE METHOD: [No Pass/Fail]

Now add in the total expected dividend pool to be paid over the next ten years, which is $14.60. This gives you a total dollar amount of $457.45. These numbers indicate that one could expect to make a 14.7% average annual return on BMA's stock at the present time. Although, the return is slightly below the liking of Buffett, the return would still be somewhat acceptable.


CALCULATE THE EXPECTED FUTURE STOCK PRICE BASED ON AVERAGE EPS GROWTH: [No Pass/Fail]

If you take the EPS growth of 4.8%, based on the analysts' consensus estimated long term growth rate, you can project EPS in ten years to be $11.39. Now multiply EPS in 10 years by the lower of the 5 year average P/E ratio or current P/E ratio (16.1) (5 year average P/E in this case), which is 7.4. This equals the future stock price of $83.98. Add in the total expected dividend pool of $14.60 to get a total dollar amount of $98.58.


CALCULATE THE EXPECTED RETURN USING THE AVERAGE EPS GROWTH METHOD: [No Pass/Fail]

Now you can figure out your expected return based on a current price of $115.77 and the future expected stock price, including the dividend pool, of $98.58. If you were to invest in BMA at this time, you could expect a -1.59% average annual return on your money. Buffett likes to see a 15% return, and would even go down to 12%.


LOOK AT THE RANGE OF EXPECTED RATE OF RETURN: FAIL

Based on the two different methods, you could expect an annual compounding rate of return somewhere between -1.6% and 14.7%. To pinpoint the average return a little better, we have taken an average of the two different methods. Investors could expect an average return of 6.6% on BMA stock for the next ten years, based on the current fundamentals. Buffett accepts a 12% return, although 15% is preferable. This return is unacceptable to Buffett, thus failing the criterion.


SIGNET JEWELERS LTD.

Strategy: Value Investor
Based on: Benjamin Graham

Signet Jewelers Limited is a retailer of diamond jewelry. The Company's segments include the Sterling Jewelers division; the Zale division, which consists of the Zale Jewelry and Piercing Pagoda segments; the UK Jewelry division, and Other. The Sterling Jewelers division's stores operate in the United States principally as Kay Jewelers (Kay), Kay Jewelers Outlet, Jared The Galleria Of Jewelry (Jared) and Jared Vault. The Zale division operates jewelry stores (Zale Jewelry) and kiosks (Piercing Pagoda), located primarily in shopping malls across the United States, Canada and Puerto Rico. Zale Jewelry includes the United States store brand, Zales, and the Canadian store brand, Peoples Jewellers. Piercing Pagoda operates through mall-based kiosks. The UK Jewelry division operates stores in the United Kingdom, Republic of Ireland and Channel Islands. The Other segment includes the operations of subsidiaries involved in the purchasing and conversion of rough diamonds to polished stones.


SECTOR: PASS

SIG is neither a technology nor financial Company, and therefore this methodology is applicable.


SALES: PASS

The investor must select companies of "adequate size". This includes companies with annual sales greater than $1 billion. SIG's sales of $6,229.8 million, based on trailing 12 month sales, pass this test.


CURRENT RATIO: PASS

The current ratio must be greater than or equal to 2. Companies that meet this criterion are typically financially secure and defensive. SIG's current ratio of 2.63 passes the test.


LONG-TERM DEBT IN RELATION TO NET CURRENT ASSETS: PASS

For industrial companies, long-term debt must not exceed net current assets (current assets minus current liabilities). Companies that meet this criterion display one of the attributes of a financially secure organization. The long-term debt for SIG is $696.8 million, while the net current assets are $2,144.7 million. SIG passes this test.


LONG-TERM EPS GROWTH: PASS

Companies must increase their EPS by at least 30% over a ten-year period and EPS must not have been negative for any year within the last 10 years. We have data for 7 years, and have adjusted this requirement to be a 21% gain over the 7 year period. Companies with this type of growth tend to be financially secure and have proven themselves over time. SIG's EPS growth over that period of 122.7% passes the EPS growth test.


P/E RATIO: PASS

The Price/Earnings (P/E) ratio, based on the greater of the current PE or the PE using average earnings over the last 3 fiscal years, must be "moderate", which this methodology states is not greater than 15. Stocks with moderate P/Es are more defensive by nature. SIG's P/E of 9.24 (using the current PE) passes this test.


PRICE/BOOK RATIO: PASS

The Price/Book ratio must also be reasonable. That is, the Price/Book multiplied by P/E cannot be greater than 22. SIG's Price/Book ratio is 1.50, while the P/E is 9.24. SIG passes the Price/Book test.


SANDERSON FARMS, INC.

Strategy: Small-Cap Growth Investor
Based on: Motley Fool

Sanderson Farms, Inc. is a poultry processing company. The Company is engaged in the production, processing, marketing and distribution of fresh and frozen chicken, and also preparation, processing, marketing and distribution of processed and minimally prepared chicken. It sells ice pack, chill pack, bulk pack and frozen chicken, in whole, cut-up and boneless form, under the Sanderson Farms brand name to retailers, distributors, casual dining operators, customers reselling frozen chicken into export markets. The Company, through its subsidiaries, Sanderson Farms, Inc. (Production Division) and Sanderson Farms, Inc. (Processing Division), conducts its chicken operations. Sanderson Farms, Inc. (Production Division) is engaged in the production of chickens to the broiler-stage. Sanderson Farms, Inc. (Foods Division) is engaged in the processing, sale and distribution of chickens. The Company, through Sanderson Farms, Inc. (Foods Division), conducts its prepared chicken business.


PROFIT MARGIN: PASS

This methodology seeks companies with a minimum trailing 12 month after tax profit margin of 7%. The companies that pass this criterion have strong positions within their respective industries and offer greater shareholder returns. A true test of the quality of a company is that they can sustain this margin. SAFM's profit margin of 8.80% passes this test.


RELATIVE STRENGTH: FAIL

The investor must look at the relative strength of the company in question. Companies whose relative strength is 90 or above (that is, the company outperforms 90% or more of the market for the past year), are considered attractive. Companies whose price has been rising much quicker than the market tend to keep rising. Although SAFM's relative strength of 88 is below the acceptable level, yet it is very close. Keep an eye on the stock as it could move into the acceptable range.


COMPARE SALES AND EPS GROWTH TO THE SAME PERIOD LAST YEAR: PASS

Companies must demonstrate both revenue and net income growth of at least 25% as compared to the prior year. These growth rates give you the dynamic companies that you are looking for. These rates for SAFM (110.33% for EPS, and 28.01% for Sales) are good enough to pass.


INSIDER HOLDINGS: FAIL

SAFM's insiders should own at least 10% (they own 4.72%) of the company's outstanding shares. This does not satisfy the minimum requirement, and companies that do not pass this criteria are less attractive.


CASH FLOW FROM OPERATIONS: PASS

A positive cash flow is typically used for internal expansion, acquisitions, dividend payments, etc. A company that generates rather than consumes cash is in much better shape to fund such activities on their own, rather than needing to borrow funds to do so. SAFM's free cash flow of $2.21 per share passes this test.


PROFIT MARGIN CONSISTENCY: FAIL

The profit margin in the past must be consistently increasing. The profit margin of SAFM has been inconsistent in the past three years (Current year: 6.71%, Last year: 7.70%, Two years ago: 8.98%), which is unacceptable. This inconsistency will carryover directly to the company's bottom line, or earnings per share.


R&D AS A PERCENTAGE OF SALES: NEUTRAL

This criterion is not critically important for companies that are not high-tech or medical stocks because they are not as R&D dependant as companies within those sectors. Not much emphasis should be placed on this test in SAFM's case.


CASH AND CASH EQUIVALENTS: FAIL

SAFM does not have a sufficiently large amount of cash, $234.11 million, on hand relative to its size. Although this criteria does not apply to companies of this size, we defined anything greater than $500 million in cash as having 'a lot of cash' to allow analysis of these companies. SAFM will have more of a difficult time paying off debt (if it has any) or acquiring other companies than a company that passes this criterion.


INVENTORY TO SALES: PASS

This methodology strongly believes that companies, especially small ones, should have tight control over inventory. It's a warning sign if a company's inventory relative to sales increases significantly when compared to the previous year. Up to a 30% increase is allowed, but no more. Inventory to Sales for SAFM was 7.09% last year, while for this year it is 7.82%. Although the inventory to sales is rising, it is below the max 30% that is allowed. The investor can still consider the stock if all other criteria appear very attractive.


ACCOUNT RECEIVABLE TO SALES: PASS

This methodology wants to make sure that a company's accounts receivable do not get significantly out of line with sales. It's a warning sign if a company's accounts receivable relative to sales increases significantly when compared to the previous year. Up to a 30% increase is allowed, but no more. Accounts Receivable to Sales for SAFM was 4.61% last year, while for this year it is 4.42%. Since the AR to sales is decreasing by -0.20% the stock passes this criterion.


LONG TERM DEBT/EQUITY RATIO: PASS

SAFM's trailing twelve-month Debt/Equity ratio (0.00%) is at a great level according to this methodology because the superior companies that you are looking for don't need to borrow money in order to grow.


"THE FOOL RATIO" (P/E TO GROWTH): PASS

The "Fool Ratio" is an extremely important aspect of this analysis. If the company has attractive fundamentals and its Fool Ratio is 0.5 or less (SAFM's is 0.46), the shares are looked upon favorably. These high quality companies can often wind up as the biggest winners. SAFM passes this test.

The following criteria for SAFM are less important which means you would place less emphasis on them when making your investment decision using this strategy:

AVERAGE SHARES OUTSTANDING: PASS

SAFM has not been significantly increasing the number of shares outstanding within recent years which is a good sign. SAFM currently has 22.0 million shares outstanding. This means the company is not taking any measures, with regards to the number of shares, that will dilute or devalue the stock.


SALES: FAIL

Companies with sales less than $500 million should be chosen. It is among these small-cap stocks that investors can find "an uncut gem", ones that institutions won't be able to buy yet. SAFM's sales of $3,213.1 million based on trailing 12 month sales, are too high and would therefore fail the test. It is companies with $500 million or less in sales that are most likely to double or triple in size in the next few years.


DAILY DOLLAR VOLUME: FAIL

SAFM does not pass the Daily Dollar Volume (DDV of $88.5 million) test. It exceeds the maximum requirement of $25 million. Stocks that fail the test are too liquid for a small individual investor and many institutions have already discovered it.


PRICE: PASS

This is a very insignificant criterion for this methodology. But basically, low prices are chosen because "small numbers multiply more rapidly than large ones" and the potential for big returns expands. SAFM with a price of $145.85 passes the price test, even though it doesn't fall in the preferred range. The price should be above $7 in order to eliminate penny stocks and below $20 since most stocks in this price range are undiscovered by the institutions.


INCOME TAX PERCENTAGE: PASS

SAFM's income tax paid expressed as a percentage of pretax income this year was (35.44%) and last year (35.35%) are greater than 20% which is an acceptable level. If the tax rate is below 20% this could mean that the earnings that were reported were unrealistically inflated due to the lower level of income tax paid. This is a concern.



Watch List

The top scoring stocks not currently in the Hot List portfolio.

Ticker Company Name Current
Score
MCK MCKESSON CORPORATION 76%
LMAT LEMAITRE VASCULAR INC 70%
UTHR UNITED THERAPEUTICS CORPORATION 68%
CUTR CUTERA, INC. 66%
MAN MANPOWERGROUP INC. 65%
SKX SKECHERS USA INC 64%
PAYC PAYCOM SOFTWARE INC 64%
AGX ARGAN, INC. 62%
NOAH NOAH HOLDINGS LIMITED (ADR) 57%
FIZZ NATIONAL BEVERAGE CORP. 57%



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