Markets & Economy

The volatility in the markets has contributed to wild swings in stocks, but solid corporate earnings are rolling in and have boosted returns in the short-term. The biggest worries on investors' minds are interest rates and trade. If the Federal Reserve acts too aggressively on raising rates, it could choke off the economic growth we've seen for the last few quarters. Threats of a trade war with China spooked investors a couple of times in the last month. For now, neither of those worries seem justified. The global economy continues to expand and strong corporate profits look to continue this year, though the pace of growth may slow. The S&P 500 is in positive territory for the year, up 0.7%, as of Thursday afternoon, but the blue-chip Dow Jones industrial average is down 0.22%. The S&P trades at a multiple of 20.6, and the Dow at 18.9.

Some positive numbers:

  1. This week the Philadelphia Fed Index, a measure of manufacturing activity in the district, came in at 23.2 for March, higher than the 20.5 level expected by Wall Street economists. Overall, U.S. industrial production rose 0.5% in March, beating expectations of 0.4%.
  2. The Federal Reserve's periodic "beige book" report covering its 12 regional districts found robust business borrowing, rising consumer spending and tight labor markets.
  3. US. homebuilding increased more than expected in March because of a rebound in multi-family units but weakness in the single-family segment suggested the housing market was slowing. Housing starts rose 1.9% to an adjusted rate of 1.3 million units.

Some not-so-positive numbers:

  1. JP. Morgan's Private Bank Spring Investment Barometer found that 75 percent of people who have $30 million or more in assets - the ultra-high net worth segment - predict the economy will hit a recession by 2020.
  1. Consumer sentiment slipped in April, a month after recording its highest level since 2004, mostly because of worries over a possible trade war.

Recommended Reading

Now that volatility has returned to the markets, money is starting to flow back into hedge funds, which have the flexibility to bet against stocks. But that doesn't mean the end of passive investing, which has seen an unprecedented wave of investor inflows. More than 1,000 ETFs use some sort of smart beta approach, and focused strategies are regaining popularity. Here are some of the latest blog posts and articles, in case you missed them.

Early Bird: Morgan Housel reminds us of the value of compounding by using Warren Buffett as an example. The Oracle of Omaha's success as an investor dates back to his pre-teen years, and calculations show his fortune would be less had he began investing later in life. Read more

Crowded Field: Barron's recently noted that 1,300 ETFs use some sort of "factor" or "smart beta" approach, but not all of the strategies are going to work well for investors. The article says it's best to "stick with the classics." Read more

Bond Benefits: Years of low interest rates have chased investors away from bonds, but they can still hold up in a downturn. A recent Bloomberg article points out that during 20 bear markets since 1928, the average return from long-term government bonds was 5%, and the median return was 3.2%. Read more

Value Premium: Larry Swedroe says value investors should take heart. The value premium still exists even if the strategy has been out of favor for an extended period of time. Read more

Unstoppable Tech: Tech companies may have developed an unstoppable business model, writes WSJ's Jason Zweig, that means they can continue to grow without slowing. That's potentially good news for FANG giants Facebook and Amazon, despite the challenges both face. Read more

Less is More: Focused strategies are getting more popular. They are portfolios holding 50 or fewer stocks, the antidote to passive funds tracking broad market indexes and hundreds of names. Read more

Market Mover: Barry Ritholtz attempts to explain in a Bloomberg column how, contrary to popular belief, news does not drive markets or prices, rather than the other way around. Read more

King Cash: Investors should consider building cash in their portfolios, according to the WSJ, which says it has an appeal at the moment on three grounds: above-inflation yield, a guaranteed cushion, and dry powder to buy the dips. Read more

Dividend Day: S&P 500 companies paid a record amount in dividends in the first quarter of this year, MarketWatch said. There was an $18.8 billion increase in dividends. Read more

News on Hot List Stocks

Alliance Data Systems said it had first quarter profit of $163.9 million, or $4.44 a share, which beat expectations by 17 cents. But revenue of $1.88 billion fell short of the $1.92 billion expected.

Sanderson Farms announced a quarterly dividend of 32 cents payable on May 15.

Magna International opened a new 189,000 square foot manufacturing plant in Mexico, where it will make structural welded assemblies for BMW and Mercedes Benz. The facility will have 1,000 workers at full production.

Rethinking the meaning of "consistent" performance

This is a truth that bears repeating: No investment model can beat the market every year. At Validea, we have data from 2006 to 2017 that confirms this. Just one of our 43 quantitative models has outperformed in 9 of 11 years, or 83% of the time. Our more than three dozen models cover a full range of styles, from deep value to momentum, so there is no bias in that regard. There isn't a crystal ball that would have enabled us to predict which of the models would do well at any given time, either.

This risk - inconsistency - is what investors have to endure in the short run to beat the market over the longer term.

It also makes it difficult to maintain calm, especially when political and economic turmoil send tremors through the market. This is when it's a good time to tune out the noise and remember why you were investing in the first place. Maintaining clear goals in times of uncertainty makes it easier to stay on the right path.

Even star professional managers will fall short some of the time, despite a track record of stunning success. Bill Miller beat the market for 15 years at Legg Mason until the financial crisis hit, and then he started trailing the S&P. Miller has since gone out on his own and has reclaimed his magic, but his experience is a lesson for everyone.

Miller's 15 year winning streak is striking when you realize how rare that kind of consistency is. Value investing was not in vogue in the 1990s, a market driven by large cap stocks and technology. But even when the pattern shifted back to favor value investing after the dotcom bubble burst, Miller was still able to outperform for the next half a decade.

The problem with success is it tends to attract attention, and for an investment manager, assets. The bigger a fund gets, the harder it is for the manager to maintain performance.

Last-in investors to a hot fund usually don't get the performance they were chasing. That's simply because they weren't in at the very beginning to capture the maximum amount of upside potential. The later investors are also buying in at a peak, and will run the risk of selling at a valley once the performance disappoints and they look for another manager to chase.

Investors also tend to look at calendar year returns when another measure - rolling returns - might be a better yardstick. Rolling returns show the frequency and magnitude of a fund's stronger and weaker periods, so the returns an investor sees aren't skewed by the most recent quarter-end data.

A few take-aways:

Follow proven strategies and trust facts and figures: At Validea, we use investment strategies inspired by some of history's most successful investors, including Warren Buffett, Peter Lynch, Ken Fisher and the late Benjamin Graham. These strategies are built on key fundamental and financial characteristics that help identify good buy prospects.

Stay disciplined: No strategy will beat the market every month or even every year. If that's your goal, you might end up just jumping from strategy to strategy chasing returns or the hottest stocks. This is a recipe for buying high and selling low. If you think long-term (over a time horizon of at least five years), you'll be better equipped to endure short-term underperformance and reap the rewards of a good strategy.

Beware emotion: It's easy to get swept up in an exciting story surrounding a stock (and buy it) or get consumed by a negative story (and sell it). But doing so without first taking a look at the numbers can lead to ill-fated actions. Good investors don't let hype influence their decisions.

By taking a step back to find perspective and by staying focused on what matters and adhering to a sound investment process, you can help avoid many of the mistakes that get investors in trouble.


Portfolio Holdings
Ticker Date Added Return
THO 4/6/2018 -9.4%
ATHM 4/6/2018 10.6%
SAFM 4/6/2018 -0.0%
STMP 3/9/2018 9.0%
TOL 3/9/2018 -7.8%
MGA 3/9/2018 9.7%
TNET 3/9/2018 5.0%
CACC 3/9/2018 -4.1%
FIVE 4/6/2018 5.8%
ADS 4/6/2018 2.9%


Guru Analysis
Disclaimer: The analysis is from Validea's selection and interpretation of content from the guru's book or published writings, and is not from nor endorsed by the guru. See Full Disclaimer

THO   |   ATHM   |   SAFM   |   STMP   |   TOL   |   MGA   |   TNET   |   CACC   |   FIVE   |   ADS   |  

THOR INDUSTRIES, INC.

Strategy: Growth/Value Investor
Based on: James P. O'Shaughnessy

Thor Industries, Inc. manufactures a range of recreational vehicles (RVs) in the United States and sells those vehicles primarily in the United States and Canada. The Company's segments include towable recreational vehicles, which consists of the operations of Airstream, Inc. (Airstream) (towable); Heartland Recreational Vehicles, LLC (Heartland) (including Bison Coach, LLC (Bison), Cruiser RV, LLC (CRV) and DRV, LLC (DRV)); Jayco, Corp. (Jayco) (including Jayco towable, Starcraft and Highland Ridge), Keystone RV Company (Keystone) (including CrossRoads and Dutchmen) and K.Z., Inc. (KZ) (including Livin' Lite RV, Inc. (Livin' Lite)); motorized recreational vehicles, which consists of the operations of Airstream (motorized), Jayco (including Jayco motorized and Entegra Coach) and Thor Motor Coach, Inc. (Thor Motor Coach), and Other, which includes the operations of its subsidiary, Postle Operating, LLC (Postle).


MARKET CAP: PASS

The first requirement of the Cornerstone Growth Strategy is that the company has a market capitalization of at least $150 million. This will screen out the companies that are too illiquid for most investors, but still include a small growth company. THO, with a market cap of $5,541 million, passes this criterion.


EARNINGS PER SHARE PERSISTENCE: PASS

The Cornerstone Growth methodology looks for companies that show persistent earnings growth without regard to magnitude. To fulfill this requirement, a company's earnings must increase each year for a five year period. THO, whose annual EPS before extraordinary items for the last 5 years (from earliest to the most recent fiscal year) were 2.86, 3.29, 3.79, 4.91 and 7.09, passes this test.


PRICE/SALES RATIO: PASS

The Price/Sales ratio should be below 1.5. This value criterion, coupled with the growth criterion, identify growth stocks that are still cheap to buy. THO's Price/Sales ratio of 0.68, based on trailing 12 month sales, passes this criterion.


RELATIVE STRENGTH: PASS

The final criterion for the Cornerstone Growth Strategy requires that the Relative Strength of the company be among the top 50 of the stocks screened using the previous criterion. This gives you the opportunity to buy the growth stocks you are searching for just as the market is embracing them. THO, whose relative strength is 59, is in the top 50 and would pass this last criterion.


AUTOHOME INC (ADR)

Strategy: Patient Investor
Based on: Warren Buffett

Autohome Inc. is an online destination for automobile consumers in China. The Company is engaged in the provision of online advertising and dealer subscription services in the People's Republic of China (PRC). The Company, through its Websites, autohome.com.cn and che168.com, and mobile applications, delivers content to automobile buyers and owners. These services are offered to automakers and dealers, and advertising agencies that represent automakers and dealers in the automobile industry. The Company's autohome.com.cn targets automobile consumers with a focus on new automobiles. The Company's professionally produced content is created by editorial team and includes automobile-related articles and reviews, pricing trends in various local markets, and photos and video clips. Its database also includes new and used automobile listings and promotional information. Its dealer subscription services allow dealers to market their inventory and services through its Websites.

STAGE 1: "Is this a Buffett type company?"

A bedrock principle for Buffett is that his type of company has a "durable competitive advantage" as compared to being a "price competitive" or "commodity" type of business. Companies with a "durable competitive advantage" are more likely to be found in these sub-industries: Brand Name Fast Food Restaurants, Brand Name Beverages, Brand Name Foods, Brand Name Toiletries and Household Products, Brand Name Clothing, Brand Name Prescription Drugs, Advertising, Advertising Agencies, TV, Newspapers, Magazines, Direct Mail, Repetitive Services for Businesses, Low Cost Producers of Insurance, furniture, or Low Cost Retailers. While you should be easily able to explain where the company's pricing power comes from (i.e. a strong regional brand image, a business tollgate, its main products are #1 or # 2 in its field and has been on the market for years and hasn't changed at all, a consumer or business ends up buying the same product many times in a year, etc. or having the lowest production cost among its competition), there are certain figures that one can look at that can qualify the company as having a durable competitive advantage.


LOOK FOR EARNINGS PREDICTABILITY: PASS

Buffett likes companies to have solid, stable earnings that are continually expanding. This allows him to accurately predict future earnings. Annual earnings per share from earliest to most recent were 0.01, 0.06, 0.13, 0.21, 0.33, 0.69, 1.05, 1.35, 1.67, 2.68. Buffett would consider ATHM's earnings predictable. In fact EPS have increased every year. ATHM's long term historical EPS growth rate is 42.9%, based on the average of the 3, 4 and 5 year historical eps growth rates, and it is expected to grow earnings 26.6% per year in the future, based on the analysts' consensus estimated long term growth rate. For the purposes of our analysis, we will use the more conservative of the two EPS growth numbers.


LOOK AT THE ABILITY TO PAY OFF DEBT PASS

Buffett likes companies that are conservatively financed. Nonetheless, he has invested in companies with large financing divisions and in firms with rather high levels of debt. ATHM has no long term debt and therefore would pass this criterion.


LOOK FOR CONSISTENTLY HIGHER THAN AVERAGE RETURN ON EQUITY: FAIL

Buffett likes companies with above average return on equity of at least 15% or better, as this is an indicator that the company has a durable competitive advantage. US corporations have, on average, returned about 12% on equity over the last 30 years. The average ROE for ATHM, over the last ten years, is 13.2%. Although he prefers ROE to be 15% or higher, this level is acceptable to Buffett. It is not enough that the average be at least 15%. For each of the last 10 years, with the possible exception of the last fiscal year, the ROE must be at least 10% for Buffett to feel comfortable that the ROE is consistent. In addition, the average ROE over the last 3 years must also exceed 15%. The ROE for the last 10 years, from earliest to latest, is N/A%, N/A%, N/A%, 9.9%, 13.6%, 7.2%, 8.8%, 9.0%, 19.2%, 24.6%, and the average ROE over the last 3 years is 17.6%, thus failing this criterion.


LOOK FOR CONSISTENTLY HIGHER THAN AVERAGE RETURN ON TOTAL CAPITAL: FAIL

Because some companies can be financed with debt that is many times their equity, they can show a consistently high ROE, yet still be in unattractive price competitive businesses. To screen this out, for non-financial companies Buffett also requires that the average Return On Total Capital (ROTC) be at least 12% and consistent. In addition, the average ROTC over the last 3 years must also exceed 12%. Return On Total Capital is defined as the net earnings of the business divided by the total capital in the business, both equity and debt. The average ROTC for ATHM, over the last ten years, is 13.2% and the average ROTC over the past 3 years is 17.6%, which is high enough to pass. It is not enough that the average be at least 12%. For each of the last 10 years, with the possible exception of the last fiscal year, the ROTC must be at least 9% for Buffett to feel comfortable that the ROTC is consistent. The ROTC for the last 10 years, from earliest to latest, is 0.0%, 0.0%, 0.0%, 9.9%, 13.6%, 7.2%, 8.8%, 9.0%, 19.2%, 24.6%, thus failing this criterion.


LOOK AT CAPITAL EXPENDITURES: PASS

Buffett likes companies that do not have major capital expenditures. That is, he looks for companies that do not need to spend a ton of money on major upgrades of plant and equipment or on research and development to stay competitive. ATHM's free cash flow per share of $3.19 is positive, indicating that the company is generating more cash that it is consuming. This is a favorable sign, and so the company passes this criterion.


LOOK AT MANAGEMENT'S USE OF RETAINED EARNINGS: PASS

Buffett likes to see if management has spent retained earnings in a way that benefits shareholders. To figure this out, Buffett takes the total amount of retained earnings over the previous ten years of $8.18 and compares it to the gain in EPS over the same period of $2.67. ATHM's management has proven it can earn shareholders a 32.6% return on the earnings they kept. This return is more than acceptable to Buffett. Essentially, management is doing a great job putting the retained earnings to work.


HAS THE COMPANY BEEN BUYING BACK SHARES: NEUTRAL

Buffett likes to see falling shares outstanding, which indicates that the company has been repurchasing shares. This indicates that management has been using excess capital to increase shareholder value. ATHM's shares outstanding have not fallen in either the current year or the last 3 or 5 years and so it fails this criterion. This is a bonus criterion and will not adversely affect the ability of a stock to pass the strategy as a whole if it is failed.

The preceding concludes Buffett's qualitative analysis. If and when he gets positive responses to all the above criteria, he would then proceed with a price analysis. The price analysis will determine whether or not the stock should be bought. The following is how he would evaluate ATHM quantitatively.

STAGE 2: "Should I buy at this price?" Although a firm may be a Buffett type company, he won't invest in it unless he can get a favorable price that allows him a great long term return.


CALCULATE THE INITIAL RATE OF RETURN: [No Pass/Fail]

Buffett compares his type of stocks to bonds, and likes to see what a company's initial rate of return is. To calculate the initial rate of return, take the trailing 12-month EPS of $2.70 and divide it by the current market price of $97.54. An investor, purchasing ATHM, could expect to receive a 2.77% initial rate of return. Furthermore, he or she could expect the rate to increase 26.6% per year, based on the analysts' consensus estimated long term growth rate, as this is how fast earnings are growing.


COMPARE THE INITIAL RATE OF RETURN WITH THE LONG-TERM TREASURY YIELD: PASS

Buffett favors companies in which the initial rate of return is around the long-term treasury yield. Nonetheless, he has invested in companies with low initial rates of return, as long as the yield is expected to expand rapidly. Currently, the long-term treasury yield is about 2.75%. Compare this with ATHM's initial yield of 2.77%, which will expand at an annual rate of 26.6%, based on the analysts' consensus estimated long term growth rate. The company is the better choice, as the initial rate of return is close to or above the long term bond yield and is expanding.


CALCULATE THE FUTURE EPS: [No Pass/Fail]

ATHM currently has a book value of $10.81. It is safe to say that if ATHM can preserve its average rate of return on equity of 13.2% and continues to retain 100.00% of its earnings, it will be able to sustain an earnings growth rate of 13.2% and it will have a book value of $37.34 in ten years. If it can still earn 13.2% on equity in ten years, then expected EPS will be $4.93.


CALCULATE THE FUTURE STOCK PRICE BASED ON THE AVERAGE ROE METHOD: [No Pass/Fail]

Now take the expected future EPS of $4.93 and multiply them by the lower of the 5 year average P/E ratio or current P/E ratio (36.1) (5 year average P/E in this case), which is 26.7 and you get ATHM's projected future stock price of $131.38.


CALCULATE THE EXPECTED RATE OF RETURN BASED ON THE AVERAGE ROE METHOD: [No Pass/Fail]

Now add in the total expected dividend pool to be paid over the next ten years, which is $0.00. This gives you a total dollar amount of $131.38. These numbers indicate that one could expect to make a 3.0% average annual return on ATHM's stock at the present time. The return is unacceptable to Buffett.


CALCULATE THE EXPECTED FUTURE STOCK PRICE BASED ON AVERAGE EPS GROWTH: [No Pass/Fail]

If you take the EPS growth of 26.6%, based on the analysts' consensus estimated long term growth rate, you can project EPS in ten years to be $28.62. Now multiply EPS in 10 years by the lower of the 5 year average P/E ratio or current P/E ratio (36.1) (5 year average P/E in this case), which is 26.7. This equals the future stock price of $763.40. Add in the total expected dividend pool of $0.00 to get a total dollar amount of $763.40.


CALCULATE THE EXPECTED RETURN USING THE AVERAGE EPS GROWTH METHOD: [No Pass/Fail]

Now you can figure out your expected return based on a current price of $97.54 and the future expected stock price, including the dividend pool, of $763.40. If you were to invest in ATHM at this time, you could expect a 22.84% average annual return on your money. Buffett would consider this an exceptional return.


LOOK AT THE RANGE OF EXPECTED RATE OF RETURN: PASS

Based on the two different methods, you could expect an annual compounding rate of return somewhere between 3.0% and 22.8%. To pinpoint the average return a little better, we have taken an average of the two different methods. Investors could expect an average return of 12.9% on ATHM stock for the next ten years, based on the current fundamentals. Buffett likes to see a 15% return, but nonetheless would accept this return, thus passing the criterion.


SANDERSON FARMS, INC.

Strategy: Value Investor
Based on: Benjamin Graham

Sanderson Farms, Inc. is a poultry processing company. The Company is engaged in the production, processing, marketing and distribution of fresh and frozen chicken, and also preparation, processing, marketing and distribution of processed and minimally prepared chicken. It sells ice pack, chill pack, bulk pack and frozen chicken, in whole, cut-up and boneless form, under the Sanderson Farms brand name to retailers, distributors, casual dining operators, customers reselling frozen chicken into export markets. The Company, through its subsidiaries, Sanderson Farms, Inc. (Production Division) and Sanderson Farms, Inc. (Processing Division), conducts its chicken operations. Sanderson Farms, Inc. (Production Division) is engaged in the production of chickens to the broiler-stage. Sanderson Farms, Inc. (Foods Division) is engaged in the processing, sale and distribution of chickens. The Company, through Sanderson Farms, Inc. (Foods Division), conducts its prepared chicken business.


SECTOR: PASS

SAFM is neither a technology nor financial Company, and therefore this methodology is applicable.


SALES: PASS

The investor must select companies of "adequate size". This includes companies with annual sales greater than $1 billion. SAFM's sales of $3,425.8 million, based on trailing 12 month sales, pass this test.


CURRENT RATIO: PASS

The current ratio must be greater than or equal to 2. Companies that meet this criterion are typically financially secure and defensive. SAFM's current ratio of 4.67 passes the test.


LONG-TERM DEBT IN RELATION TO NET CURRENT ASSETS: PASS

For industrial companies, long-term debt must not exceed net current assets (current assets minus current liabilities). Companies that meet this criterion display one of the attributes of a financially secure organization. The long-term debt for SAFM is $0.0 million, while the net current assets are $644.0 million. SAFM passes this test.


LONG-TERM EPS GROWTH: FAIL

Companies must increase their EPS by at least 30% over a ten-year period and EPS must not have been negative for any year within the last 10 years. EPS for SAFM were negative within the last 10 years and therefore the company fails this criterion.


P/E RATIO: PASS

The Price/Earnings (P/E) ratio, based on the greater of the current PE or the PE using average earnings over the last 3 fiscal years, must be "moderate", which this methodology states is not greater than 15. Stocks with moderate P/Es are more defensive by nature. SAFM's P/E of 11.30 (using the 3 year PE) passes this test.


PRICE/BOOK RATIO: PASS

The Price/Book ratio must also be reasonable. That is, the Price/Book multiplied by P/E cannot be greater than 22. SAFM's Price/Book ratio is 1.75, while the P/E is 11.30. SAFM passes the Price/Book test.


STAMPS.COM INC.

Strategy: Small-Cap Growth Investor
Based on: Motley Fool

Stamps.com Inc. is a provider of Internet-based mailing and shipping solutions in the United States. The Company offers mailing and shipping products and services to its customers under the Stamps.com, Endicia, ShipStation, ShipWorks and ShippingEasy brands. It operates through the Internet Mailing and Shipping Services segment. Under the Stamps.com and Endicia brands, customers use its United States Postal Service (USPS) only solutions to mail and ship a range of mail pieces and packages through the USPS. USPS mailing and shipping solutions enable users to print electronic postage directly onto envelopes, plain paper, or labels using only a standard personal computer, printer and Internet connection. The Company offers USPS mailing and shipping services, multi-carrier shipping services, mailing and shipping services, branded insurance and international postage solutions. The Company offers customized postage under the PhotoStamps and PictureItPostage brand names.


PROFIT MARGIN: PASS

This methodology seeks companies with a minimum trailing 12 month after tax profit margin of 7%. The companies that pass this criterion have strong positions within their respective industries and offer greater shareholder returns. A true test of the quality of a company is that they can sustain this margin. STMP's profit margin of 34.91% passes this test.


RELATIVE STRENGTH: PASS

The investor must look at the relative strength of the company in question. Companies whose relative strength is 90 or above (that is, the company outperforms 90% or more of the market for the past year), are considered attractive. Companies whose price has been rising much quicker than the market tend to keep rising. STMP, with a relative strength of 94, satisfies this test.


COMPARE SALES AND EPS GROWTH TO THE SAME PERIOD LAST YEAR: PASS

Companies must demonstrate both revenue and net income growth of at least 25% as compared to the prior year. These growth rates give you the dynamic companies that you are looking for. These rates for STMP (77.02% for EPS, and 25.09% for Sales) are good enough to pass.


INSIDER HOLDINGS: FAIL

STMP's insiders should own at least 10% (they own 7.44%) of the company's outstanding shares. This does not satisfy the minimum requirement, and companies that do not pass this criteria are less attractive.


CASH FLOW FROM OPERATIONS: PASS

A positive cash flow is typically used for internal expansion, acquisitions, dividend payments, etc. A company that generates rather than consumes cash is in much better shape to fund such activities on their own, rather than needing to borrow funds to do so. STMP's free cash flow of $10.39 per share passes this test.


PROFIT MARGIN CONSISTENCY: PASS

STMP's profit margin has been consistent or even increasing over the past three years (Current year: 32.13%, Last year: 20.65%, Two years ago: -1.96%), passing the requirement. It is a sign of good management and a healthy and competitive enterprise.


R&D AS A PERCENTAGE OF SALES: NEUTRAL

This criterion is not critically important for companies that are not high-tech or medical stocks because they are not as R&D dependant as companies within those sectors. Not much emphasis should be placed on this test in STMP's case.


CASH AND CASH EQUIVALENTS: PASS

STMP's level of cash $153.9 million passes this criteria. If a company is a cash generator, like STMP, it has the ability to pay off debt (if it has any) or acquire other companies. Most importantly, good operations generate cash.


INVENTORY TO SALES: PASS

This methodology strongly believes that companies, especially small ones, should have tight control over inventory. It's a warning sign if a company's inventory relative to sales increases significantly when compared to the previous year. Up to a 30% increase is allowed, but no more. Inventory to Sales for STMP was 0.96% last year, while for this year it is 0.75%. Since the inventory to sales is decreasing by -0.21% the stock passes this criterion.


ACCOUNT RECEIVABLE TO SALES: PASS

This methodology wants to make sure that a company's accounts receivable do not get significantly out of line with sales. It's a warning sign if a company's accounts receivable relative to sales increases significantly when compared to the previous year. Up to a 30% increase is allowed, but no more. Accounts Receivable to Sales for STMP was 17.23% last year, while for this year it is 22.01%. Although the AR to sales is rising, it is below the max 30% that is allowed. The investor can still consider the stock if all other criteria appear very attractive.


LONG TERM DEBT/EQUITY RATIO: FAIL

STMP's trailing twelve-month Debt/Equity ratio (12.18%) is too high, according to this methodology. You can find other more superior companies that do not have to borrow money in order to grow.


"THE FOOL RATIO" (P/E TO GROWTH): PASS

The "Fool Ratio" is an extremely important aspect of this analysis. If the company's Fool Ratio is between 0.5 and 0.65 (STMP's is 0.61), the company demonstrates excellence in its fundamentals and have soundly beat the earnings estimates. STMP passes this test.

The following criteria for STMP are less important which means you would place less emphasis on them when making your investment decision using this strategy:

AVERAGE SHARES OUTSTANDING: PASS

STMP has not been significantly increasing the number of shares outstanding within recent years which is a good sign. STMP currently has 19.0 million shares outstanding. This means the company is not taking any measures, with regards to the number of shares, that will dilute or devalue the stock.


SALES: PASS

Companies with sales less than $500 million should be chosen. It is among these small-cap stocks that investors can find "an uncut gem", ones that institutions won't be able to buy yet. STMP's sales of $468.7 million based on trailing 12 month sales, are fine, making this company one such "prospective gem". STMP passes the sales test.


DAILY DOLLAR VOLUME: FAIL

STMP does not pass the Daily Dollar Volume (DDV of $81.3 million) test. It exceeds the maximum requirement of $25 million. Stocks that fail the test are too liquid for a small individual investor and many institutions have already discovered it.


PRICE: PASS

This is a very insignificant criterion for this methodology. But basically, low prices are chosen because "small numbers multiply more rapidly than large ones" and the potential for big returns expands. STMP with a price of $221.65 passes the price test, even though it doesn't fall in the preferred range. The price should be above $7 in order to eliminate penny stocks and below $20 since most stocks in this price range are undiscovered by the institutions.


INCOME TAX PERCENTAGE: FAIL

STMP's income tax paid expressed as a percentage of pretax income either this year (-2.10%) or last year (35.68%) is below 20% which is cause for concern. Because the tax rate is below 20% this could mean that the earnings that were reported are unrealistically inflated due to the lower level of income tax paid. However, we have utilized a sophisticated formula so that the appropriate figures reflect a 'normal' tax rate (35%).


TOLL BROTHERS INC

Strategy: Growth Investor
Based on: Martin Zweig

Toll Brothers, Inc. is engaged in designing, building, marketing, selling and arranging financing for detached and attached homes in luxury residential communities. The Company operates through two segments: Traditional Home Building and Toll Brothers City Living (City Living). Within the Traditional Home Building segment, it operates in five geographic segments in the United States: the North, consisting of Connecticut, Illinois, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, New Jersey and New York; the Mid-Atlantic, consisting of Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania and Virginia; the South, consisting of Florida, North Carolina and Texas; the West, consisting of Arizona, Colorado, Nevada and Washington, and California. City Living is the Company's urban development division. Its products include Traditional Home Building Product and City Living Product. Its Traditional Home Building Product includes detached homes, move-up, executive, estate, and active-adult and age-qualified lines of home.


P/E RATIO: PASS

The P/E of a company must be greater than 5 to eliminate weak companies, but not more than 3 times the current Market P/E because the situation is much too risky, and never greater than 43. TOL's P/E is 12.26, based on trailing 12 month earnings, while the current market PE is 28.00. Therefore, it passes the first test.


REVENUE GROWTH IN RELATION TO EPS GROWTH: PASS

Revenue Growth must not be substantially less than earnings growth. For earnings to continue to grow over time they must be supported by a comparable or better sales growth rate and not just by cost cutting or other non-sales measures. TOL's revenue growth is 20.24%, while it's earnings growth rate is 18.73%, based on the average of the 3, 4 and 5 year historical eps growth rates. Therefore, TOL passes this criterion.


SALES GROWTH RATE: PASS

Another important issue regarding sales growth is that the rate of quarterly sales growth is rising. To evaluate this, the change from this quarter last year to the present quarter (27.7%) must be examined, and then compared to the previous quarter last year compared to the previous quarter (9.3%) of the current year. Sales growth for the prior must be greater than the latter. For TOL this criterion has been met.


The earnings numbers of a company should be examined from various different angles. Three of these angles are stability in the trend of earnings, earnings persistence, and earnings acceleration. To evaluate stability, the stock has to pass the following four criteria.


CURRENT QUARTER EARNINGS: PASS

The first of these criteria is that the current EPS be positive. TOL's EPS ($0.64) pass this test.


QUARTERLY EARNINGS ONE YEAR AGO: PASS

The EPS for the quarter one year ago must be positive. TOL's EPS for this quarter last year ($0.42) pass this test.


POSITIVE EARNINGS GROWTH RATE FOR CURRENT QUARTER: PASS

The growth rate of the current quarter's earnings compared to the same quarter a year ago must also be positive. TOL's growth rate of 52.38% passes this test.


EARNINGS GROWTH RATE FOR THE PAST SEVERAL QUARTERS: PASS

Compare the earnings growth rate of the previous three quarters with long-term EPS growth rate. Earnings growth in the previous 3 quarters should be at least half of the long-term EPS growth rate. Half of the long-term EPS growth rate for TOL is 9.36%. This should be less than the growth rates for the 3 previous quarters, which are 43.14%, 42.62%, and 74.63%. TOL passes this test, which means that it has good, reasonably steady earnings.


This strategy looks at the rate which earnings grow and evaluates this rate of growth from different angles. The 4 tests immediately following are detailed below.


EPS GROWTH FOR CURRENT QUARTER MUST BE GREATER THAN PRIOR 3 QUARTERS: PASS

If the growth rate of the prior three quarter's earnings, 54.75%, (versus the same three quarters a year earlier) is greater than the growth rate of the current quarter earnings, 52.38%, (versus the same quarter one year ago) then the stock fails, with one exception: if the growth rate in earnings between the current quarter and the same quarter one year ago is greater than 30%, then the stock would pass. The growth rate over this period for TOL is 52.4%, and it would therefore pass this test.


EPS GROWTH FOR CURRENT QUARTER MUST BE GREATER THAN THE HISTORICAL GROWTH RATE: PASS

The EPS growth rate for the current quarter, 52.38% must be greater than or equal to the historical growth which is 18.73%. TOL would therefore pass this test.


EARNINGS PERSISTENCE: PASS

Companies must show persistent yearly earnings growth. To fulfill this requirement a company's earnings must increase each year for a five year period. TOL, whose annual EPS growth before extraordinary items for the previous 5 years (from the earliest to the most recent fiscal year) were 0.97, 1.84, 1.98, 2.18 and 3.17, passes this test.


LONG-TERM EPS GROWTH: PASS

One final earnings test required is that the long-term earnings growth rate must be at least 15% per year. TOL's long-term growth rate of 18.73%, based on the average of the 3, 4 and 5 year historical eps growth rates, passes this test.


TOTAL DEBT/EQUITY RATIO: FAIL

A final criterion is that a company must not have a high level of debt. A high level of total debt, due to high interest expenses, can have a very negative effect on earnings if business moderately turns down. If a company does have a high level, an investor may want to avoid this stock altogether. TOL's Debt/Equity (79.16%) is considered high relative to its industry (55.71%) and fails this test.


INSIDER TRANSACTIONS: PASS

A factor that adds to a stock's attractiveness is if insider buy transactions number 3 or more, while insider sell transactions are zero. Zweig calls this an insider buy signal. For TOL, this criterion has not been met (insider sell transactions are 192, while insiders buying number 106). Despite the fact that insider sells out number insider buys for this company, Zweig considers even one insider buy transaction enough to prevent an insider sell signal, therefore there is not an insider sell signal and the stock passes this criterion.


MAGNA INTERNATIONAL INC. (USA)

Strategy: Growth Investor
Based on: Martin Zweig

Magna International Inc. (Magna) is a global automotive supplier. The Company's segments are North America, Europe, Asia, Rest of World, and Corporate and Other. The Company's product capabilities include producing body, chassis, exterior, seating, powertrain, electronic, active driver assistance, vision, closure, and roof systems and modules, as well as vehicle engineering and contract manufacturing. The Company has over 320 manufacturing operations and approximately 100 product development, engineering and sales centers in over 30 countries. It provides a range of body, chassis and engineering solutions to its original equipment manufacturer (OEM) customers. It has capabilities in powertrain design, development, testing and manufacturing. It offers bumper fascia systems, exterior trim and modular systems. It offers exterior and interior mirror systems. It offers sealing, trim, engineered glass and module systems. It offers softtops, retractable hardtops, modular tops and hardtops.


P/E RATIO: PASS

The P/E of a company must be greater than 5 to eliminate weak companies, but not more than 3 times the current Market P/E because the situation is much too risky, and never greater than 43. MGA's P/E is 10.02, based on trailing 12 month earnings, while the current market PE is 28.00. Therefore, it passes the first test.


REVENUE GROWTH IN RELATION TO EPS GROWTH: FAIL

Revenue Growth must not be substantially less than earnings growth. For earnings to continue to grow over time they must be supported by a comparable or better sales growth rate and not just by cost cutting or other non-sales measures. MGA's revenue growth is 3.93%, while it's earnings growth rate is 12.66%, based on the average of the 3, 4 and 5 year historical eps growth rates. Therefore, MGA fails this criterion.


SALES GROWTH RATE: PASS

Another important issue regarding sales growth is that the rate of quarterly sales growth is rising. To evaluate this, the change from this quarter last year to the present quarter (12.3%) must be examined, and then compared to the previous quarter last year compared to the previous quarter (7.3%) of the current year. Sales growth for the prior must be greater than the latter. For MGA this criterion has been met.


The earnings numbers of a company should be examined from various different angles. Three of these angles are stability in the trend of earnings, earnings persistence, and earnings acceleration. To evaluate stability, the stock has to pass the following four criteria.


CURRENT QUARTER EARNINGS: PASS

The first of these criteria is that the current EPS be positive. MGA's EPS ($1.47) pass this test.


QUARTERLY EARNINGS ONE YEAR AGO: PASS

The EPS for the quarter one year ago must be positive. MGA's EPS for this quarter last year ($1.24) pass this test.


POSITIVE EARNINGS GROWTH RATE FOR CURRENT QUARTER: PASS

The growth rate of the current quarter's earnings compared to the same quarter a year ago must also be positive. MGA's growth rate of 18.55% passes this test.


EARNINGS GROWTH RATE FOR THE PAST SEVERAL QUARTERS: FAIL

Compare the earnings growth rate of the previous three quarters with long-term EPS growth rate. Earnings growth in the previous 3 quarters should be at least half of the long-term EPS growth rate. Half of the long-term EPS growth rate for MGA is 6.33%. This should be less than the growth rates for the 3 previous quarters which are 25.41%, 4.96% and 5.43%. MGA does not pass this test, which means that it does not have good, reasonably steady earnings.


This strategy looks at the rate which earnings grow and evaluates this rate of growth from different angles. The 4 tests immediately following are detailed below.


EPS GROWTH FOR CURRENT QUARTER MUST BE GREATER THAN PRIOR 3 QUARTERS: PASS

If the growth rate of the prior three quarter's earnings, 11.48%, (versus the same three quarters a year earlier) is less than the growth rate of the current quarter earnings, 18.55%, (versus the same quarter one year ago) then the stock passes.


EPS GROWTH FOR CURRENT QUARTER MUST BE GREATER THAN THE HISTORICAL GROWTH RATE: PASS

The EPS growth rate for the current quarter, 18.55% must be greater than or equal to the historical growth which is 12.66%. MGA would therefore pass this test.


EARNINGS PERSISTENCE: PASS

Companies must show persistent yearly earnings growth. To fulfill this requirement a company's earnings must increase each year for a five year period. MGA, whose annual EPS growth before extraordinary items for the previous 5 years (from the earliest to the most recent fiscal year) were 3.38, 4.44, 4.72, 5.16 and 5.84, passes this test.


LONG-TERM EPS GROWTH: FAIL

The final important criterion in this approach is that Earnings Growth be at least 15% per year. MGA's long-term growth rate of 12.66%, based on the average of the 3, 4 and 5 year historical eps growth rates, fails the minimum required.


TOTAL DEBT/EQUITY RATIO: PASS

A final criterion is that a company must not have a high level of debt. A high level of total debt, due to high interest expenses, can have a very negative effect on earnings if business moderately turns down. If a company does have a high level, an investor may want to avoid this stock altogether. MGA's Debt/Equity (31.72%) is not considered high relative to its industry (124.17%) and passes this test.


TRINET GROUP INC

Strategy: Growth Investor
Based on: Martin Zweig

TriNet Group, Inc. is a provider of human resources (HR) solutions for small to medium-sized businesses (SMBs). The Company's HR solutions include services, such as multi-state payroll processing and tax administration, employee benefits programs, including health insurance and retirement plans, workers' compensation insurance and claims management, employment and benefit law compliance, and other services. The Company provides an HR technology platform with online and mobile tools that allow its clients and their worksite employees (WSEs) to store, view and manage their HR-related information and conduct a range of HR-related transactions anytime and anywhere. The Company's HR products and solutions include capabilities, such as technology platform, HR expertise, benefits and compliance. The Company's clients are distributed across a range of industries, including technology, life sciences, financial services, property management, retail, manufacturing and hospitality.


P/E RATIO: PASS

The P/E of a company must be greater than 5 to eliminate weak companies, but not more than 3 times the current Market P/E because the situation is much too risky, and never greater than 43. TNET's P/E is 20.59, based on trailing 12 month earnings, while the current market PE is 28.00. Therefore, it passes the first test.


REVENUE GROWTH IN RELATION TO EPS GROWTH: FAIL

Revenue Growth must not be substantially less than earnings growth. For earnings to continue to grow over time they must be supported by a comparable or better sales growth rate and not just by cost cutting or other non-sales measures. TNET's revenue growth is 19.75%, while it's earnings growth rate is 119.97%, based on the average of the 3, 4 and 5 year historical eps growth rates. Therefore, TNET fails this criterion.


SALES GROWTH RATE: FAIL

Another important issue regarding sales growth is that the rate of quarterly sales growth is rising. To evaluate this, the change from this quarter last year to the present quarter (4.5%) must be examined, and then compared to the previous quarter last year compared to the previous quarter (6.3%) of the current year. Sales growth for the prior must be greater than the latter. For TNET this criterion has not been met and fails this test.


The earnings numbers of a company should be examined from various different angles. Three of these angles are stability in the trend of earnings, earnings persistence, and earnings acceleration. To evaluate stability, the stock has to pass the following four criteria.


CURRENT QUARTER EARNINGS: PASS

The first of these criteria is that the current EPS be positive. TNET's EPS ($0.92) pass this test.


QUARTERLY EARNINGS ONE YEAR AGO: PASS

The EPS for the quarter one year ago must be positive. TNET's EPS for this quarter last year ($0.32) pass this test.


POSITIVE EARNINGS GROWTH RATE FOR CURRENT QUARTER: PASS

The growth rate of the current quarter's earnings compared to the same quarter a year ago must also be positive. TNET's growth rate of 187.50% passes this test.


EARNINGS GROWTH RATE FOR THE PAST SEVERAL QUARTERS: PASS

Compare the earnings growth rate of the previous three quarters with long-term EPS growth rate. Earnings growth in the previous 3 quarters should be at least half of the long-term EPS growth rate. Half of the long-term EPS growth rate for TNET is 59.99%. This should be less than the growth rates for the 3 previous quarters, which are 150.00%, 229.41%, and 200.00%. TNET passes this test, which means that it has good, reasonably steady earnings.


This strategy looks at the rate which earnings grow and evaluates this rate of growth from different angles. The 4 tests immediately following are detailed below.


EPS GROWTH FOR CURRENT QUARTER MUST BE GREATER THAN PRIOR 3 QUARTERS: PASS

If the growth rate of the prior three quarter's earnings, 194.34%, (versus the same three quarters a year earlier) is greater than the growth rate of the current quarter earnings, 187.50%, (versus the same quarter one year ago) then the stock fails, with one exception: if the growth rate in earnings between the current quarter and the same quarter one year ago is greater than 30%, then the stock would pass. The growth rate over this period for TNET is 187.5%, and it would therefore pass this test.


EPS GROWTH FOR CURRENT QUARTER MUST BE GREATER THAN THE HISTORICAL GROWTH RATE: PASS

The EPS growth rate for the current quarter, 187.50% must be greater than or equal to the historical growth which is 119.97%. TNET would therefore pass this test.


EARNINGS PERSISTENCE: PASS

Companies must show persistent yearly earnings growth. To fulfill this requirement a company's earnings must increase each year for a five year period. TNET, whose annual EPS growth before extraordinary items for the previous 5 years (from the earliest to the most recent fiscal year) were 0.06, 0.22, 0.44, 0.85 and 2.49, passes this test.


LONG-TERM EPS GROWTH: PASS

One final earnings test required is that the long-term earnings growth rate must be at least 15% per year. TNET's long-term growth rate of 119.97%, based on the average of the 3, 4 and 5 year historical eps growth rates, passes this test.


TOTAL DEBT/EQUITY RATIO: PASS

A final criterion is that a company must not have a high level of debt. A high level of total debt, due to high interest expenses, can have a very negative effect on earnings if business moderately turns down. If a company does have a high level, an investor may want to avoid this stock altogether. TNET's Debt/Equity (205.34%) is not considered high relative to its industry (216.83%) and passes this test.


INSIDER TRANSACTIONS: PASS

A factor that adds to a stock's attractiveness is if insider buy transactions number 3 or more, while insider sell transactions are zero. Zweig calls this an insider buy signal. For TNET, this criterion has not been met (insider sell transactions are 253, while insiders buying number 137). Despite the fact that insider sells out number insider buys for this company, Zweig considers even one insider buy transaction enough to prevent an insider sell signal, therefore there is not an insider sell signal and the stock passes this criterion.


CREDIT ACCEPTANCE CORP.

Strategy: Contrarian Investor
Based on: David Dreman

Credit Acceptance Corporation offers financing programs that enable automobile dealers to sell vehicles to consumers. The Company's financing programs are offered through a network of automobile dealers. The Company has two Dealers financing programs: the Portfolio Program and the Purchase Program. Under the Portfolio Program, the Company advances money to dealers (Dealer Loan) in exchange for the right to service the underlying consumer loans. Under the Purchase Program, the Company buys the consumer loans from the dealers (Purchased Loan) and keeps the amounts collected from the consumer. Dealer Loans and Purchased Loans are collectively referred to as Loans. As of December 31, 2016, the Company's target market included approximately 60,000 independent and franchised automobile dealers in the United States. The Company has market area managers located throughout the United States that market its programs to dealers, enroll new dealers and support active dealers.

MARKET CAP: PASS

Medium to large-sized companies (the largest 1500 companies) should be chosen, because they are more in the public eye. Furthermore, the investor is exposed to less risk of "accounting gimmickry", and companies of this size have more staying power. CACC has a market cap of $6,193 million, therefore passing the test.


EARNINGS TREND: PASS

A company should show a rising trend in the reported earnings for the most recent quarters. CACC's EPS for the past 2 quarters, (from earliest to most recent quarter) 5.19, 14.13 have been increasing, and therefore the company passes this test.


EPS GROWTH RATE IN THE IMMEDIATE PAST AND FUTURE: FAIL

This methodology likes to see companies with an EPS growth rate higher than the S&P in the immediate past and a likelihood that this trend will continue in the near future. CACC's EPS growth rate over the past 6 months (177.60%) has beaten that of the S&P (-12.18%), but CACC's estimated EPS growth for the current year is (-11.63%) while that of the S&P is (32.98%), therefore failing this test.


This methodology would utilize four separate criteria to determine if CACC is a contrarian stock. In order to eliminate weak companies we have stipulated that the stock should pass at least two of the following four major criteria in order to receive "Some Interest".


P/E RATIO: PASS

The P/E of a company should be in the bottom 20% of the overall market. CACC's P/E of 11.18, based on trailing 12 month earnings, meets the bottom 20% criterion (below 12.59), and therefore passes this test.


PRICE/CASH FLOW (P/CF) RATIO: FAIL

The P/CF of a company should be in the bottom 20% of the overall market. CACC's P/CF of 10.56 does not meet the bottom 20% criterion (below 7.17), and therefore fails this test.


PRICE/BOOK (P/B) VALUE: FAIL

The P/B value of a company should be in the bottom 20% of the overall market. CACC's P/B is currently 4.09, which does not meet the bottom 20% criterion (below 1.09), and it therefore fails this test.


PRICE/DIVIDEND (P/D) RATIO: FAIL

The P/D ratio for a company should be in the bottom 20% of the overall market (that is the yield should be in the top 20%). CACC's P/D is not available, and hence an opinion cannot be rendered at this time.


This methodology maintains that investors should look for as many healthy financial ratios as possible to ascertain the financial strength of the company. These criteria are detailed below.


PAYOUT RATIO: PASS

A good indicator that a company has the ability to raise its dividend is a low payout ratio. The payout ratio for CACC is 0.00%. Unfortunately, its historical payout ratio is not available. Nonetheless it passes the payout criterion, as this is a very low payout.


RETURN ON EQUITY: PASS

The company should have a high ROE, as this helps to ensure that there are no structural flaws in the company. This methodology feels that the ROE should be greater than the top one third of ROE from among the top 1500 large cap stocks, which is 17.70%, and would consider anything over 27% to be staggering. The ROE for CACC of 42.07% is high enough to pass this criterion.


PRE-TAX PROFIT MARGINS: PASS

This methodology looks for pre-tax profit margins of at least 8%, and considers anything over 22% to be phenomenal. CACC's pre-tax profit margin is 52.60%, thus passing this criterion.


YIELD: FAIL

The company in question should have a yield that is high and that can be maintained or increased. CACC's current yield is not available (or one is not paid) at the present time, while the market yield is 2.50%. Hence, this criterion cannot be evaluated.


FIVE BELOW INC

Strategy: Small-Cap Growth Investor
Based on: Motley Fool

Five Below, Inc. is a specialty retailer offering a range of merchandise for teen and pre-teen customer. The Company offers an assortment of products, including select brands and licensed merchandise across a range of categories, including Style, Room, Sports, Tech, Crafts, Party, Candy and Now. Its product groups include leisure, fashion and home, and party and snack. Its Leisure includes items, such as sporting goods, games, toys, tech, books, electronic accessories, and arts and crafts. Its Fashion and home includes items, such as personal accessories, attitude t-shirts, beauty offerings, home goods and storage options. Its Party and snack includes items, such as party and seasonal goods, greeting cards, candy and other snacks, and beverages. The Company operated 522 locations across over 31 states throughout the Northeast, South and Midwest regions of the United States, as of January 29, 2017. Its typical store featured 4,000 stock-keeping units (SKUs), as of January 29, 2017.


PROFIT MARGIN: PASS

This methodology seeks companies with a minimum trailing 12 month after tax profit margin of 7%. The companies that pass this criterion have strong positions within their respective industries and offer greater shareholder returns. A true test of the quality of a company is that they can sustain this margin. FIVE's profit margin of 7.98% passes this test.


RELATIVE STRENGTH: FAIL

The investor must look at the relative strength of the company in question. Companies whose relative strength is 90 or above (that is, the company outperforms 90% or more of the market for the past year), are considered attractive. Companies whose price has been rising much quicker than the market tend to keep rising. Although FIVE's relative strength of 88 is below the acceptable level, yet it is very close. Keep an eye on the stock as it could move into the acceptable range.


COMPARE SALES AND EPS GROWTH TO THE SAME PERIOD LAST YEAR: PASS

Companies must demonstrate both revenue and net income growth of at least 25% as compared to the prior year. These growth rates give you the dynamic companies that you are looking for. These rates for FIVE (33.33% for EPS, and 30.08% for Sales) are good enough to pass.


INSIDER HOLDINGS: FAIL

FIVE's insiders should own at least 10% (they own 2.89%) of the company's outstanding shares. This does not satisfy the minimum requirement, and companies that do not pass this criteria are less attractive.


CASH FLOW FROM OPERATIONS: PASS

A positive cash flow is typically used for internal expansion, acquisitions, dividend payments, etc. A company that generates rather than consumes cash is in much better shape to fund such activities on their own, rather than needing to borrow funds to do so. FIVE's free cash flow of $1.79 per share passes this test.


PROFIT MARGIN CONSISTENCY: PASS

FIVE's profit margin has been consistent or even increasing over the past three years (Current year: 8.02%, Last year: 7.18%, Two years ago: 6.93%), passing the requirement. It is a sign of good management and a healthy and competitive enterprise.


R&D AS A PERCENTAGE OF SALES: NEUTRAL

This criterion is not critically important for companies that are not high-tech or medical stocks because they are not as R&D dependant as companies within those sectors. Not much emphasis should be placed on this test in FIVE's case.


CASH AND CASH EQUIVALENTS: FAIL

FIVE does not have a sufficiently large amount of cash, $244.63 million, on hand relative to its size. Although this criteria does not apply to companies of this size, we defined anything greater than $500 million in cash as having 'a lot of cash' to allow analysis of these companies. FIVE will have more of a difficult time paying off debt (if it has any) or acquiring other companies than a company that passes this criterion.


INVENTORY TO SALES: PASS

This methodology strongly believes that companies, especially small ones, should have tight control over inventory. It's a warning sign if a company's inventory relative to sales increases significantly when compared to the previous year. Up to a 30% increase is allowed, but no more. Inventory to Sales for FIVE was 15.44% last year, while for this year it is 14.63%. Since the inventory to sales is decreasing by -0.81% the stock passes this criterion.


LONG TERM DEBT/EQUITY RATIO: PASS

FIVE's trailing twelve-month Debt/Equity ratio (0.00%) is at a great level according to this methodology because the superior companies that you are looking for don't need to borrow money in order to grow.


"THE FOOL RATIO" (P/E TO GROWTH): FAIL

The "Fool Ratio" is an extremely important aspect of this analysis. The methodology says consider shorting shares when the company's Fool Ratio is greater than 1.30. FIVE's PEG Ratio of 1.35 is very high.

The following criteria for FIVE are less important which means you would place less emphasis on them when making your investment decision using this strategy:

AVERAGE SHARES OUTSTANDING: PASS

FIVE has not been significantly increasing the number of shares outstanding within recent years which is a good sign. FIVE currently has 56.0 million shares outstanding. This means the company is not taking any measures, with regards to the number of shares, that will dilute or devalue the stock.


SALES: FAIL

Companies with sales less than $500 million should be chosen. It is among these small-cap stocks that investors can find "an uncut gem", ones that institutions won't be able to buy yet. FIVE's sales of $1,278.2 million based on trailing 12 month sales, are too high and would therefore fail the test. It is companies with $500 million or less in sales that are most likely to double or triple in size in the next few years.


DAILY DOLLAR VOLUME: FAIL

FIVE does not pass the Daily Dollar Volume (DDV of $100.5 million) test. It exceeds the maximum requirement of $25 million. Stocks that fail the test are too liquid for a small individual investor and many institutions have already discovered it.


PRICE: PASS

This is a very insignificant criterion for this methodology. But basically, low prices are chosen because "small numbers multiply more rapidly than large ones" and the potential for big returns expands. FIVE with a price of $74.79 passes the price test, even though it doesn't fall in the preferred range. The price should be above $7 in order to eliminate penny stocks and below $20 since most stocks in this price range are undiscovered by the institutions.


INCOME TAX PERCENTAGE: PASS

FIVE's income tax paid expressed as a percentage of pretax income this year was (35.82%) and last year (37.13%) are greater than 20% which is an acceptable level. If the tax rate is below 20% this could mean that the earnings that were reported were unrealistically inflated due to the lower level of income tax paid. This is a concern.


ALLIANCE DATA SYSTEMS CORPORATION

Strategy: P/E/Growth Investor
Based on: Peter Lynch

Alliance Data Systems Corporation is a provider of data-driven marketing and loyalty solutions serving consumer-based businesses in a range of industries. The Company offers a portfolio of integrated outsourced marketing solutions, including customer loyalty programs, database marketing services, end-to-end marketing services, analytics and creative services, direct marketing services, and private label and co-brand retail credit card programs. The Company operates through three segments: LoyaltyOne, which provides coalition and short-term loyalty programs through the Company's Canadian AIR MILES Reward Program and BrandLoyalty Group B.V. (BrandLoyalty); Epsilon, which provides end-to-end, integrated direct marketing solutions, and Card Services, which provides risk management solutions, account origination, funding, transaction processing, customer care, collections and marketing services for the Company's private label and co-brand retail credit card programs.


DETERMINE THE CLASSIFICATION:

ADS is considered a "True Stalwart", according to this methodology, as its earnings growth of 15.77% lies within a moderate 10%-19% range and its annual sales of $7,725 million are greater than the multi billion dollar level. This methodology looks for the "Stalwart" securities to gain 30%-50% in value over a two year period if they can be purchased at an attractive price based on the P/E to Growth ratio. ADS is attractive if ADS can hold its own during a recession.


YIELD ADJUSTED P/E TO GROWTH (PEG) RATIO: PASS

The Yield-adjusted P/E/G ratio for ADS (0.94), based on the average of the 3, 4 and 5 year historical eps growth rates, is O.K.


EARNINGS PER SHARE: PASS

The EPS for a stalwart company must be positive. ADS's EPS ($13.33) would satisfy this criterion.


TOTAL DEBT/EQUITY RATIO: NEUTRAL

ADS is a financial company so debt to equity rules are not applied to determine the company's financial soundness.


EQUITY/ASSETS RATIO: PASS

This methodology uses the Equity/Assets Ratio as a way to determine a financial intermediary's health, as it is a better measure than the Debt/Equity Ratio. ADS's Equity/Assets ratio (6.00%) is healthy and above the minimum 5% this methodology looks for, thus passing the criterion.


RETURN ON ASSETS: PASS

This methodology uses Return on Assets as a way to measure a financial intermediary's profitability. ADS's ROA (2.74%) is above the minimum 1% that this methodology looks for, thus passing the criterion.


FREE CASH FLOW: NEUTRAL

The Free Cash Flow/Price ratio, though not a requirement, is considered a bonus if it is above 35%. A positive Cash Flow (the higher the better) separates a wonderfully reliable investment from a shaky one. This methodology prefers not to invest in companies that rely heavily on capital spending. This ratio for ADS (19.17%) is too low to add to the attractiveness of the stock. Keep in mind, however, that it does not adversely affect the company as it is a bonus criteria.


NET CASH POSITION: NEUTRAL

Another bonus for a company is having a Net Cash/Price ratio above 30%. Lynch defines net cash as cash and marketable securities minus long term debt. According to this methodology, a high value for this ratio dramatically cuts down on the risk of the security. The Net Cash/Price ratio for ADS (-16.02%) is too low to add to the attractiveness of this company. Keep in mind, however, that it does not adversely affect the company as it is a bonus criteria.



Watch List

The top scoring stocks not currently in the Hot List portfolio.

Ticker Company Name Current
Score
LMAT LEMAITRE VASCULAR INC 81%
SCHN SCHNITZER STEEL INDUSTRIES, INC. 57%
LGIH LGI HOMES INC 54%
OLLI OLLIE'S BARGAIN OUTLET HOLDINGS INC 50%
GNBC GREEN BANCORP INC 48%
PAYC PAYCOM SOFTWARE INC 42%
SUPV GRUPO SUPERVIELLE SA -ADR 41%
CVS CVS HEALTH CORP 38%
SMCI SUPER MICRO COMPUTER, INC. 37%
DHI D. R. HORTON INC 36%



Disclaimer

The names of individuals (i.e., the 'gurus') appearing in this report are for identification purposes of his methodology only, as derived by Validea.com from published sources, and are not intended to suggest or imply any affiliation with or endorsement or even agreement with this report personally by such gurus, or any knowledge or approval by such persons of the content of this report. All trademarks, service marks and tradenames appearing in this report are the property of their respective owners, and are likewise used for identification purposes only.

Validea is not registered as a securities broker-dealer or investment advisor either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission or with any state securities regulatory authority. Validea is not responsible for trades executed by users of this site based on the information included herein. The information presented on this website does not represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks or any financial instrument nor is it intended as an endorsement of any security or investment. The information on this website is generic by nature and is not personalized to the specific situation of any individual. The user therefore bears complete responsibility for their own investment research and should seek the advice of a qualified investment professional prior to making any investment decisions.

Performance results are based on model portfolios and do not reflect actual trading. Actual performance will vary based on a variety of factors, including market conditions and trading costs. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Individual stocks mentioned throughout this web site may be holdings in the managed portfolios of Validea Capital Management, a separate asset management firm founded by Validea.com founder John Reese. Validea Capital Management, which is a separate legal entity and an SEC registered investment advisory firm, uses, in part, the strategies on the web site to select stocks for its clients.