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Executive Summary | Portfolio | Guru Analysis | Watch List |
Executive Summary | June 20, 2014 |
The Economy
Led by a solid jobs report and strong industrial sector growth, economic data has been positive over the past fortnight -- though problems overseas are posing a threat both in the US and abroad. The May jobs report showed that the private sector added 216,000 jobs during month, the third straight month the figure has topped 200,000. The unemployment rate held steady at 6.3%, while the "U-6" rate, which unlike the headline rate takes into account those working part-time who want full-time work and those who have given up looking for a job, dipped slightly to 12.2%. The headline unemployment rate has now fallen 1.2 percentage points over the past year, while the U-6 is down 1.6 points. New claims for unemployment have remained almost unchanged since our last newsletter. They are about 11% below where they were a year ago. Continuing claims, meanwhile, fell slightly. They are close to 14% below year-ago levels. Industrial production also jumped 0.6% in May, according to a new Federal Reserve report, with manufacturing production rising 0.6%. Mining output also rose, by 1.3%. And April's industrial production gain was revised upward from -0.6% to -0.3%. Retail and food service sales increased 0.3% in May, meanwhile, according to the Commerce Department. They are now about 4.5% above where they stood a year ago, a fairly healthy year-over-year increase. Housing market data has been fairly weak. Housing starts fell 6.5% in May, according to the Census Bureau, though they are about 8% above where they were a year ago. Permit issuance for new construction fell 6.4%, and is 6.4% below year-ago levels. Overseas, the emergence of the brutal Independent State of Iraq and Syria group (ISIS) has dominated the news. The primary concern is, of course, the human impact that the conflict has. But investors also need to be aware of the economic impact -- oil prices have risen over the past couple weeks, and could potentially climb further if ISIS gains control of major oil facilities. Since our last newsletter, the S&P 500 returned 1.0%, while the Hot List returned -0.2%. So far in 2014, the portfolio has returned -11.0% vs. 6.0% for the S&P. Since its inception in July 2003, the Hot List is far outpacing the index, having gained 223.8% vs. the S&P's 95.9% gain. Portfolio Update Overall for the past two weeks, the Hot List's performance has been fairly in line with that of the broader market. But there's been a great deal of variation among the portfolio's individual holdings. Through the June 19 market close, seven of the Hot List's holdings were in the black, with just three in the red. Leading the way was USANA Health Sciences, which gained 5.2%. There didn't seem to be a clear catalyst for the firm's bullish fortnight. Because of its size and the controversy over its multilevel marketing approach, the stock tends to be much more volatile than the broader market, so it was likely a case of the broader market conditions (which were generally favorable) helping push USANA higher. Another nice gainer was Robert Half International, which rose almost 4%. It didn't appear that there was a clear stock-specific catalyst for its gain, either, so again it was probably a case of the broader market pushing the stock higher. Two of the portfolio's three losers were down significantly. Anika Therapeutics had lost close to 5%. Again, this move seemed to lack a stock specific catalyst. It was likely just noise, particularly considering that the stock has been on a tear over the past year -- investors may have simply been taking profits. Coach Inc., however, was hit hard because of specific news. It said it will close 70 underperforming stores, and that it expects revenue to fall in low double digits in percentage terms for the year ending June 2015. By the end of the day on Thursday, shares were down close to 10% since our last newsletter, with just about all the drop coming Thursday after the announcement. Finally, one of the stocks that had been a decent winner through Thursday's market close, firearm maker Smith & Wesson Holding Company, was hit very hard in after-hours trading. The company announced quarterly earnings and revenue that beat analysts' expectations, but shares fell around 10% because the firm also announced guidance that was significantly below analysts' projections. While it's been a tough 2014 for the Hot List, it's important to remember that all strategies will go through down periods. Given the stellar long-term track records of the strategies driving the portfolio's picks, I expect that this underperformance will be short term, and that over the long haul the Hot List will continue to extend its sizable lead on the broader market. |
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Guru Spotlight: Martin Zweig Generally, my Guru Strategies have a distinct value bias. The majority of these models -- ranging from my Benjamin Graham approach to my Warren Buffett model to my Joseph Piotroski strategy -- are focused on finding good, often beaten-down stocks selling at bargain prices; that is, they target value stocks. But that doesn't mean that all of my gurus were cemented on the value side of the growth/value pendulum. In fact, the guru we'll examine today, Martin Zweig, used a methodology that was dominated by earnings-based criteria. He looked at a stock's earnings from a myriad of angles, wanting to ensure that he was getting stocks that had been producing strong growth over the long haul and even better growth recently -- and that their growth was coming from the right sources. Zweig's thoroughness paid off. His Zweig Forecast was one of the most highly regarded investment newsletters in the country, ranking number one for risk-adjusted returns during the 15 years that Hulbert Financial Digest monitored it. It produced an impressive 15.9 percent annualized return during that time. Zweig also managed several mutual funds, and was co-founder of Zweig Dimenna Partners, a multibillion-dollar New York-based firm that has been ranked in the top 15 of Barron's list of the most successful hedge funds. Before we delve into Zweig's strategy, a few words about the man himself, who sadly passed away last year. While some of the gurus we've looked at in recent Guru Spotlights -- Buffett and John Neff in particular come to mind -- lived modest lifestyles, Zweig put his fortune to use in some pretty fun, flashy ways. He has owned what Forbes reported was the most expensive apartment in New York City, a penthouse atop Manhattan's Pierre Hotel that was at one time valued at more than $70 million. He was also an avid collector of a variety of different kinds of memorabilia. The Wall Street Journal has reported that he owned such one-of-a-kind items as Buddy Holly's guitar, the gun from Dirty Harry, the motorcycle from Easy Rider, and Michael Jordan's jersey from his rookie season with the Chicago Bulls. A Serious Strategy Zweig may have spent his cash on some flashy, fun items, but the strategy he used to compile that cash was a disciplined, methodical approach. His earnings examination of a firm spanned several categories: Trend of Earnings: Earnings should be higher in the current quarter than they were a year ago in the same quarter. Earnings Persistence: Earnings per share should have increased in each year of the past five-year period; EPS should also have grown in each of the past four quarters (vs. the respective year-ago quarters). Long-Term Growth: EPS should be growing by at least 15 percent over the long term; a growth rate over 30 percent is exceptional. Earnings Acceleration: EPS growth for the current quarter (vs. the same quarter last year) should be greater than the average growth for the previous three quarters (vs. the respective three quarters from a year ago). EPS growth in the current quarter also should be greater than the long-term growth rate. These criteria made sure that Zweig wasn't getting in late on a stock that had great long-term growth numbers, but which was coming to the end of its growth run. While Zweig's EPS focus certainly put him on the "growth" side of the growth/value spectrum, his approach was by no means a growth-at-all-costs strategy. Like all of the gurus I follow, he included a key value-based component in his method. He made sure that a stock's price/earnings ratio was no greater than three times the market average, and no greater than 43, regardless of what the market average was. (He also didn't like stocks with P/Es less than 5, because they could be indicative of an outright dog that investors were wisely avoiding.) In addition, Zweig wanted to know that a firm's earnings growth was sustainable over the long haul. And that meant that the growth was coming primarily from sales -- not cost-cutting or other non-sales measures. My Zweig model requires a firm's revenue growth to be at least 85 percent of EPS growth. If a stock fails that test but its revenues are growing by at least 30 percent a year, it passes, however, since that is still a very strong revenue growth rate. Like earnings growth, Zweig believed sales growth should be increasing. My model thus requires that a stock's sales growth for the most recent quarter (vs. the year-ago quarter) to be greater than the previous quarter's sales growth rate (vs. the year-ago quarter). Finally, Zweig also wanted to makes sure a firm's growth wasn't driven by unsustainable amounts of leverage (a key observation given all that's happened recently). Realizing that different industries require different debt loads, he looked for stocks whose debt/equity ratios were lower than their industry average. Macro Issues There's one more thing you should know about Zweig. He relied a good amount on technical factors to adjust how much of his portfolio he put into stocks. Some of the indicators he used to move in and out of the market included the Federal Reserve's discount rate; installment debt levels; and the prime rate. His mottos included "Don't fight the Fed" (meaning investors should be more bullish when interest rates were low or falling) and "Don't fight the tape" (which related to his practice of getting more bullish or bearish based on market trends). Those rules are tough for an individual investor to put into practice; Zweig used what he called a "Super Model" that meshed all of his indicators into a system that determined how bullish or bearish he was. But over the years, I've found that using only the quantitative, fundamental-based criteria Zweig outlined in his book can produce very strong results. My Zweig-inspired 10-stock portfolio has been a very strong performer since its July 2003 inception, returning 188.4%, or 10.2% per year, while the S&P 500 has gained just 95.6%, or 6.3% per year (through June 18). It had its best year in 2013, surging 63%. The strategy also hasn't been much more volatile than the S&P -- its beta since inception is just 1.07. The model tends to choose stocks from a variety of areas -- it goes where the growth is. Right now, it's finding opportunities everywhere from mobile home/RV firms to restaurants to financials. Here are the portfolio's current holdings: Anika Therapeutics, Inc. (ANIK) WSFS Financial Corporation (WSFS) Buffalo Wild Wings, Inc. (BWLD) Manhattan Associates, Inc. (MANH) Drew Industries Incorporated (DW) Performant Financial Corporation (PFMT) Monster Beverage Corporation (MNST) Questcor Pharmaceuticals, Inc (QCOR) Bitauto Holdings Limited (BITA) United Natural Foods, Inc. (UNFI) As you might expect with a growth strategy, the Zweig portfolio tends not to hold on to stocks for a long time. Usually it will hold a stock for a few months, though it is not averse to longer periods if the stock continues to be a prospect for more growth. What I really like about the Zweig strategy is that, while it certainly would qualify as a growth approach, it doesn't look at growth in a vacuum. As you've seen, it examines earnings growth from a variety of angles, making sure that it is strong, improving, and sustainable. In doing so, it allows you to find some fast-growing growth stocks that are not paper tigers, but instead solid prospects for continued long-term success. News about Validea Hot List Stocks Smith & Wesson Holding Company (SWHC): Shares of the firearms maker tumbled in after hours trading on June 19 after its earnings report. The firm reported that net income fell 4.6% to $170.4 million, or 44 cents per diluted share, versus the $178.7 million, or 38 cents per diluted share, a year ago in the fourth quarter ended April 30, TheStreet.com reported. While the quarterly results beat analyst expectations, the firm's announcement that it expects to earn between $1.30 and $1.40 a share for the full 2015 fiscal year fell short of the $1.50 a share analysts projected, and shares fell. Coach Inc. (COH): Coach said it will close 70 underperforming stores, and that it expects revenue to fall in low double digits in percentage terms for the year ending June 2015, Reuters reported. Coach also said that it would "de-emphasize" discounting. The Next Issue In two weeks, we will publish another issue of the Hot List, at which time we will rebalance the portfolio. If you have any questions, please feel free to contact us at hotlist@validea.com. |
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Disclaimer |
The names of individuals (i.e., the 'gurus') appearing in this report are for identification purposes of his methodology only, as derived by Validea.com from published sources, and are not intended to suggest or imply any affiliation with or endorsement or even agreement with this report personally by such gurus, or any knowledge or approval by such persons of the content of this report. All trademarks, service marks and tradenames appearing in this report are the property of their respective owners, and are likewise used for identification purposes only. Validea is not registered as a securities broker-dealer or investment advisor either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission or with any state securities regulatory authority. Validea is not responsible for trades executed by users of this site based on the information included herein. The information presented on this website does not represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks or any financial instrument nor is it intended as an endorsement of any security or investment. The information on this website is generic by nature and is not personalized to the specific situation of any individual. The user therefore bears complete responsibility for their own investment research and should seek the advice of a qualified investment professional prior to making any investment decisions. Performance results are based on model portfolios and do not reflect actual trading. Actual performance will vary based on a variety of factors, including market conditions and trading costs. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Individual stocks mentioned throughout this web site may be holdings in the managed portfolios of Validea Capital Management, a separate asset management firm founded by Validea.com founder John Reese. Validea Capital Management, which is a separate legal entity and an SEC registered investment advisory firm, uses, in part, the strategies on the web site to select stocks for its clients. |