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Executive Summary November 22, 2013

The Economy

The latest data is showing that the partial government shutdown didn't do nearly as much to harm the economic expansion as feared, with good news coming from the manufacturing, employment, and consumer areas.

The private sector, for example, unexpectedly added 212,000 jobs during the October, according to the Labor Department, leaving the unemployment rate essentially unchanged at 7.3%. The bad news was that 932,000 people dropped out of the labor force during the month and the participation rate fell by 0.4 percentage points. It was unclear why so many people exited, as the number of discouraged workers didn't seem to account for much of the change. The jobs-added and participation rates are tabulated through different surveys, which could account for the good news/bad news dichotomy.

So far in November, the unemployment data has been very encouraging. New claims for unemployment have fallen since our last newsletter, and are now more than 20% below where they were a year ago. That's an exceptional year-over-year improvement.

Manufacturing activity, meanwhile, remained strong in October, with the Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing index coming in at its highest level in two-and-a-half years. New orders remained at very high level, indicating production could remain strong in coming months.

ISM's service sector index showed that the sector expanded in October for the 46th straight month, and did so at an accelerating pace. The sector employment sub-index jumped significantly in the month, another good sign.

Consumer data was also encouraging, with the latest government report showing that real disposable personal income jumped 0.4% in September. Workers pocketed a big chunk of the increase, pushing the personal savings rate up 0.2 percentage points to a very solid 4.9%. Personal consumption expenditures rose 0.1%.

In October, retail and food service sales rose 0.4%, the Commerce Department said. That put them about 4.3% above their year-ago level.

Finally, third-quarter earnings season has almost wrapped up, and the results continue to be positive. As of Nov. 15, 92% of S&P 500 companies had reported earnings and 73% had beaten expectations, according to FactSet. Top line results weren't as impressive, but more than half -- 52% -- of companies beat sales estimates.

Since our last newsletter, the S&P 500 returned 2.8%, while the Hot List returned 2.6%. So far in 2013, the portfolio has returned 33.6% vs. 25.9% for the S&P. Since its inception in July 2003, the Hot List is far outpacing the index, having gained 262.3% vs. the S&P's 79.5% gain.

Bubble Trouble?

"Only by learning to live in harmony with your contradictions can you keep it all afloat. You know how fighting fish do it? They blow bubbles and in each one of those bubbles is an egg and they float the egg up to the surface. They keep this whole heavy nest of eggs floating, and they're constantly repairing it. It's as if they live in both elements."

-- Poet Audre Lorde

For more than five years now, the Federal Reserve has been pumping billions upon billions of dollars of liquidity into the U.S. financial system. Other central banks have followed suit with billions upon billions of their own. It's no secret that one of the Fed's intentions with its ultra-low-interest-rate, ultra-high-liquidity policy was to drive investors into riskier assets -- like stocks -- thereby creating a "wealth effect" scenario in which stocks rise, Americans feel wealthier, Americans spend more, and the economy grows at a strong pace.

The growth-generation part of the plan hasn't been too successful. With banks hoarding much of the liquidity provided by the Fed, growth has been average to subpar for most of the last five years. But more and more pundits and analysts are saying that the wealth effect part of the Fed's plan has been working all too well, pushing stocks higher and higher and far beyond what their fundamentals merit. Could stocks, like the fighting fish eggs to which the poet Audre Lorde referred, be supported by little more than bubbles -- in this case dangerous, precarious, bubbles blown by central bankers who want desperately to live in two elements (that is, one world of feel-good, rising markets, the other of harsh economic realities)?

A growing crowd seems to think that's the case. I'm not among them.

To understand why, let's first look at some measures of the broader market's valuation. The S&P 500's price/earnings ratio based on trailing 12-month operating earnings is 17.6; its forward P/E (using projected operating earnings) is 15.4. Those figures have been climbing, yes, but neither is indicative of major overvaluation. In fact, According to Charles Schwab's Liz Ann Sonders, those are both still shy of the 18.7 and 18.1 averages, respectively, for the past ten bull market peaks.

But by some metrics, valuations do seem high. The 10-year cyclically-adjusted P/E ratio, which uses inflation-adjusted average earnings for the past decade to smooth out short-term fluctuations, is at about 24.9, using Yale Economist Robert Shiller's earnings data. That's up from 20.9 a year ago, and well above the historical average of about 18.3 since World War II. But it's still below the 27.5 level seen in mid-2007, and far below the 44.2 seen at the height of the tech bubble. (For what it's worth, Shiller -- one of the few to recognize both the tech bubble and the housing bubble before they burst -- told The Wall Street Journal last week that he doesn't think a stock market bubble exists today.)

Other metrics show a reasonably priced market. The S&P trades for about 2.2 times book value, according to Morningstar, for example. That's below the 1978-early 2011 average of about 2.4, according to data from Ned Davis Research and Comstock Partners. The S&P's current price/sales ratio of 1.46, also according to Morningstar, is higher than the historical average cited by Comstock and Ned Davis. But it doesn't seem astronomical -- my James O'Shaughnessy-based growth model considers P/S ratios of up to 1.5 to be indicative of good values.

Now, I suppose one could say that they just don't trust the earnings and sales data these days, and that the bubble is less like the ultra-high-valuation tech bubble and more like the stealth 2007-08 bubble, in which huge amounts of leverage propped up earnings and sales to make valuations look deceivingly reasonable. And to be sure there's a bit of that going on, with historically low interest rates helping corporations borrow money on the cheap, and letting homebuyers get very low mortgage rates. But in some cases, the low rates hurt businesses and consumers. PIMCO bond guru Bill Gross has noted several times that the low rates make for low yield spreads, which can actually hurt bank profits. And for consumers, well, just check your bank statement to see what kind of returns your cash is earning. (And, with a personal savings rate of 4.9% in October -- nearly twice what it was before the Great Recession -- Americans do indeed still have a lot of their money in the bank.)

As for the sea of liquidity central banks have pumped into the economy, it's pretty well documented that banks haven't passed a whole lot of that through to Main Street. To say that liquidity itself is artificially supporting the economy and markets, to the point that a bubble exists, thus seems a stretch. In fact, it seems many of the same people who say the Fed's policies are creating a bubble are also the same ones who have argued that the liquidity provided by quantitative easing has been failing to make it's way into the economy. You can't have it both ways. I don't think you can't say the liquidity isn't making it through the system and then say that things like earnings and sales and book values are being propped up by QE -- not to the point that a bubble exists.

Then there's the issue of sentiment. Back during past bubbles, investors have poured into stocks at incredible paces for extended periods. In the four years leading up to the tech bubble peak, investors pumped more than $470 billion into U.S. equity funds, according to The Wall Street Journal (citing Morningstar data). This year, investors through October had put a net of $111 billion into U.S. stock mutual and exchange traded funds -- a big number, yes, but not big enough to even make up for the $134 billion they'd taken from those funds since 2009.

To me, the bubble talk seems to be more of a reflection of investors' psyches than a reflection of reality. For most of their lives, today's investors knew of stock market bubbles only through history books. Then, within an eight-year span, their portfolios were rocked by two traumatizing bursting bubbles, the latter of which came along with a global financial crisis that threatened to decimate the entire financial system and lead to another Great Depression. The fear that those events caused isn't something that disappears overnight, or even over a couple years. Wells Capital Management's James Paulsen has said, in fact, that the scars have led to a "post traumatic-Armageddon-hypochondria" among investors -- just as a medical hypochondriac's mind immediately goes to the worst-case scenario when they get a minor ache or cough, so too do many investors' minds now go to disastrous scenarios at the slightest sign of trouble.

With the economy having weathered so many storms and appearing to be on decent footing for the moment, I think many people's market hypochondria has shifted away from economic ailments and toward valuation. And there's no doubt, valuations have been rising. Around this time last year, the S&P 500's trailing 12 month operating P/E ratio was 14.2, and its forward operating P/E was 12.7. Its price/sales ratio was 1.3, while its price/book ratio was 2.0. All of those figures have increased over the past year, some by fairly significant margins. But taken in their totality, these measures just don't paint a picture of a bubble, or anything close to it.

Confirmation bias also may be at play here. During the 2008 market crash, many pundits and prognosticators said that the U.S. economy was headed for oblivion, along with U.S. stocks. The Federal Reserve, they said, could keep things afloat for a little while, but soon things would fall apart. Well, we are now five years past the financial crisis, and the economy, while far from spectacular, continues its slow, steady improvement. And stocks have been a great investment over the past several years. Those who had been calling for doom and chaos don't want to admit that they were wrong, so they dig their heels in deeper and deeper and look for any data that will confirm their gloomy predictions, regardless of new data that shows that the economy is hanging in there and stocks are decently valued.

It's hard not to cling to your beliefs, even in the face of changing information. We try hard not to do that. We try to stick to the facts and figures, and right now, in my opinion, the totality of the data seems to show that the market is somewhere on the higher side of the fair value range. You might even say that it's gotten a bit ahead of itself. But guess what? That's what happens in bull markets. Valuations go up. They pass their historical averages -- by definition, you're sometimes going to be on the high side of an average. But "a bit ahead of itself" is not the stuff of which bubbles are made. Perhaps because they by and large missed the last two bubbles, however, the media seems to be fearful of getting blindsided a third time. The slightest hint of overvaluation thus leads to the "B" word getting thrown around.

The reality is that, while some stocks and areas of the market are looking pricey, we're still finding plenty of individual companies whose shares are trading at very reasonable values. Take Hot List newcomer Chevron. This well-established energy giant trades for just 10 times earnings and just over 1.0 times sales, despite having grown earnings at a 26% pace over the long haul, having a debt/equity ratio of about 13%, and having a 17% return on equity.

Chevron is far, far from the only strong business with cheap shares out there. That doesn't mean the broader market is going to continue higher without any hiccups, of course. As I always say, predicting the market is incredibly hard, particularly in the short term. Could a correction be just around the corner? Perhaps. But given all of the evidence, I feel comfortable as a long-term investor owning the types of stocks that are in the Hot List today.

Editor-in-Chief: John Reese

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The Fallen

As we rebalance the Validea Hot List, 2 stocks leave our portfolio. These include: Xinyuan Real Estate Co., Ltd. (Adr) (XIN) and Coach, Inc. (COH).

The Keepers

8 stocks remain in the portfolio. They are: Usana Health Sciences, Inc. (USNA), Stamps.com Inc. (STMP), Lukoil (Adr) (LUKOY), Amtrust Financial Services, Inc. (AFSI), Bridgepoint Education Inc (BPI), Lear Corporation (LEA), Hollyfrontier Corp (HFC) and Hci Group Inc (HCI).

The Newbies

We are adding 2 stocks to the portfolio. These include: Papa John's Int'l, Inc. (PZZA) and Chevron Corporation (CVX).

Portfolio Changes

Newcomers to the Validea Hot List

Chevron Corporation (CVX): In addition to its oil and gas businesses, this California-based firm ($235 billion market cap) is involved in the lubricant, petrochemical products, geothermal energy, and biofuels markets. Over the past 12 months, it has taken in about $225 billion in sales.

Chevron is a favorite of my Peter Lynch- and James O'Shaughnessy-based models. For more on the stock, see the "Detailed Stock Analysis" section below.

Papa John's International Inc. (PZZA): This Louisville-based chain ($1.8 billion market cap) is the world's third-largest pizza delivery company. It owns or franchises approximately 4,200 restaurants in all 50 states and 35 countries, and has taken in about $1.4 billion in sales in the past year.

Papa John's gets high marks from my James O'Shaughnessy-based growth model and my Momentum Investor model. For more on its fundamentals, see the "Detailed Stock Analysis" section below.

News about Validea Hot List Stocks

Bridgepoint Education, Inc. (BPI): The for-profit education firm announced it has commenced a tender offer to purchase up to 10,250,000 shares of its common stock at a price of $19.50 per share, making for a $200 million buyback plan. That represents about 18.8% of its total common shares outstanding.

Xinyuan Real Estate Co., Ltd. (XIN): Xinyuan announced third-quarter revenues of $240.7 million, a 6.5% increase from the third quarter of 2012 and 12% above previous guidance estimates. Net income was $28.7 million ($0.39 per diluted share), down 10.0% from the third quarter of 2012. The Hot List is selling the stock today on its regularly scheduled rebalancing, as the scores of other stocks have surpassed it since our last newsletter.

The Next Issue

In two weeks, we will publish another issue of the Hot List, at which time we will take a closer look at my strategies and investment approach. If you have any questions, please feel free to contact us at hotlist@validea.com.

Current Portfolio

Detailed Stock Analysis

Disclaimer: The analysis is from Validea's selection and interpretation of content from the guru's book or published writings, and is not from nor endorsed by the guru. See Full Disclaimer

USNA   |   BPI   |   HCI   |   STMP   |   LUKOY   |   PZZA   |   LEA   |   AFSI   |   HFC   |   CVX   |  

USANA Health Sciences, Inc. develops and manufactures science-based nutritional and personal care products. The Company has operations in 15 markets worldwide, where it distributes and sells its products by way of direct selling. The Company reports operations in two geographic regions: North America and Asia Pacific, which is further divided into three sub-regions; Southeast Asia/Pacific, Greater China, and North Asia. North America includes the United States, Canada, Mexico, and direct sales from the United States to the United Kingdom and the Netherlands. Southeast Asia/Pacific includes Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Malaysia, and the Philippines; Greater China includes Hong Kong, Taiwan and China; and North Asia includes Japan and South Korea. The Company's customer base consists of two types of customers: Associates and Preferred Customers. As of December 31, 2011, the Company had 222,000 active Associates and 64,000 active Preferred Customers worldwide.

Bridgepoint Education, Inc. (Bridgepoint) is a provider of postsecondary education services. The Company's academic institutions include Ashford University and University of the Rockies. Its institutions deliver programs primarily online, as well as at their traditional campuses. As of December 31, 2011, the Company had 86,642 total students enrolled in its institutions. Bridgepoint's institutions conduct ongoing faculty and student assessment processes and provide a range of student services. The Company is also focused on developing new technologies, such as through Waypoint Outcomes, Constellation, and the development of its institutions' mobile learning platforms. The Company has developed Constellation to replace third party textbooks with digital course materials. Constellation materials are displayed in a browser-based platform. In January 2012, Bridgepoint introduced Thuze.

HCI Group Inc, formerly Homeowners Choice, Inc., is a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, is engaged in the property and casualty insurance business. Through Homeowners Choice Property & Casualty Insurance Company, Inc. (HCPC) and subsidiaries, primarily Homeowners Choice Managers, Inc. (HCM), Southern Administration, Inc., Claddaugh Casualty Insurance Company, Ltd., and its subsidiary, HCPCI Holdings LLC, it provides property and casualty homeowners' insurance, condominium-owners' insurance and tenants' insurance to individuals owning property in Florida. Its subsidiaries also include TV Investment Holdings LLC, which owns and operates a marina facility located in Florida; Unthink Technologies Private Limited. During the year ended December 31, 2011, it organized TV Investment Holdings LLC, HCI Holdings LLC and HCI Technical Resources, Inc.

Stamps.com Inc. is a provider of Internet-based postage solutions. The Company's customers use its service to mail and ship a variety of mail pieces, including postcards, envelopes, flats and packages, using a range of United States Postal Service (the USPS) mail classes, including First Class Mail, Priority Mail, Express Mail, Media Mail, Parcel Post, and others. Its customers include individuals, small businesses, home offices, medium-size businesses and enterprises.

NK Lukoil OAO (Neftyanaya Kompaniya LUKOIL OAO or NK LUKOIL OJSC) is a Russia-based integrated oil and gas company. The Company is engaged in the business of oil exploration, production, refining, marketing and distribution. It is an owner of refineries, gas processing, petrochemical plants and gas stations network located in Russia, Eastern and Western Europe, as well as Africa. The Company's petroleum products are sold in the Russian Federation, the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) countries, Eastern and Western Europe, Asia and the United States. NK Lukoil OAO operates through numerous subsidiaries and affiliated companies. In April 2013, the Company acquired a 100% of Samara-Nafta ZAO and completed acquisition of CJSC Kama-Oil. In June 2013, it sold a 99.57% stake in Lukoil Odes'kyi NPZ PAT. The Company's major shareholder is NKO ZAO NRD with a stake of 91.60%.

Papa John's International, Inc. (Papa John's) operates and franchises pizza delivery and carryout restaurants and, in certain international markets, dine-in and restaurant-based delivery restaurants under the trademark Papa John's. The Company operates in six segments: domestic Company-owned restaurants, domestic commissaries (Quality Control Centers), North America franchising, international operations, variable interest entities (VIEs) and all other business units. Its Company owned restaurants includes 182 restaurants operated under four joint venture arrangements. The Company also owns and operates restaurants in Beijing and North China. In April 2012, it acquired 56 franchised Papa John's restaurants in the Denver and Minneapolis markets.

Lear Corporation is a tier 1 supplier to the global automotive industry. The Company supplies its products to automotive manufacturers with automotive seat systems and related components, as well as electrical distribution systems and related components. The Company has two segments: seating and electrical power management systems (EPMS). The seating segment includes seat systems and related components, such as seat frames, recliner mechanisms, seat tracks, seat trim covers, headrests and seat foam. The EPMS segment includes electrical distribution systems for traditional powertrain vehicles, as well as for hybrid and electric vehicles. As of December 31, 2011, it had 20 joint ventures located throughout Asia, as well as five in North America, two in Europe and Africa and one with operations in all three regions.

Amtrust Financial Services, Inc. is a holding company. The Company is a multinational specialty property and casualty insurer focused on generating consistent underwriting profits. The Company operates in four segments: small commercial business, specialty program and personal lines reinsurance. In January 2013, the Company acquired First Nonprofit Companies, Inc. In February 2013, its subsidiary acquired Car Care Plan (Holdings) Limited from Ally Insurance Holdings, Inc. In April 2013, it acquired Sequoia Insurance Company and its subsidiaries, Sequoia Indemnity Company and Personal Express Insurance Company. In May 2013, the Company acquired Mutual Insurers Holding Company (MIHC) and MIHC's subsidiary, First Nonprofit Insurance Company.

HollyFrontier Corporation (HollyFrontier), formerly Holly Corporation, is a petroleum refiner, which produces light products, such as gasoline, diesel fuel, jet fuel, specialty lubricant products, and specialty and modified asphalt. HollyFrontier operates in two segments: Refining and Holly Energy Partners, L.P. (HEP). The Refining segment includes the operations of its El Dorado, Tulsa, Navajo, Cheyenne and Woods Cross Refineries and NK Asphalt. The HEP segment involves all of the operations of HEP. As of December 31, 2011, it operated five refineries having a combined crude oil processing capacity of 443,000 barrels per day that serve markets throughout the Mid-Continent, Southwest and Rocky Mountain regions of the United States. The Company merged with Frontier Oil Corporation (Frontier), on July 1, 2011. On November 9, 2011, HEP acquired from the Company certain tankage, loading rack and crude receiving assets located at its El Dorado and Cheyenne Refineries.

Chevron Corporation (Chevron) manages its investments in subsidiaries and affiliates and provides administrative, financial, management and technology support to the United States and international subsidiaries that engage in fully integrated petroleum operations, chemicals operations, mining activities, power generation and energy services. Upstream operations consist primarily of exploring for, developing and producing crude oil and natural gas; processing, transportation and regasification associated with liquefied natural gas; transporting crude oil by international oil export pipelines; transporting, storage and marketing of natural gas, and a gas-to-liquids project. Downstream operations consist primarily of refining crude oil into petroleum products; transporting crude oil and refined products by pipeline, marine vessel, motor equipment and rail car, and manufacturing and marketing of commodity petrochemicals, plastics for industrial uses and fuel and lubricant additives.

Watch List

The Watch List contains the highest scoring stocks according to our guru consensus system that are not currently in the Hot List portfolio. We provide this list both for informational purposes and for investors who are not comfortable with a portfolio of ten stocks.


The names of individuals (i.e., the 'gurus') appearing in this report are for identification purposes of his methodology only, as derived by Validea.com from published sources, and are not intended to suggest or imply any affiliation with or endorsement or even agreement with this report personally by such gurus, or any knowledge or approval by such persons of the content of this report. All trademarks, service marks and tradenames appearing in this report are the property of their respective owners, and are likewise used for identification purposes only.

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