Guru Analysis
| Strategy: P/E/Growth Investor
Based on: Peter Lynch |
| Banco Macro SA is an Argnetina-based financial institution (the Bank) that offers traditional bank products and services to companies, including those operating in regional economies, as well as to individuals. In addition, the Bank performs certain transactions through its subsidiaries, including mainly Banco del Tucuman, Macro Bank Ltd, Macro Securities SA, Macro Fiducia SA and Macro Fondos SGFCI SA. It has approximately two categories of customers, such as retail customers, including individuals and entrepreneurs and corporate customers, which include small, medium and large companies and major corporations. In addition, it provides services to over four provincial governments. It provides its corporate customers with traditional banking products and services, such as deposits, lending (including overdraft facilities), check cashing advances and factoring, guaranteed loans and credit lines for financing foreign trade and cash management services. |
DETERMINE THE CLASSIFICATION:
This methodology would consider BMA a "fast-grower".
P/E/GROWTH RATIO: PASS
The investor should examine the P/E (11.33) relative to the growth rate (41.34%), based on the average of the 3, 4 and 5 year historical eps growth rates, for a company. This is a quick way of determining the fairness of the price. In this particular case, the P/E/G ratio for BMA (0.27) is very favorable.
SALES AND P/E RATIO: PASS
For companies with sales greater than $1 billion, this methodology likes to see that the P/E ratio remain below 40. Large companies can have a difficult time maintaining a growth high enough to support a P/E above this threshold. BMA, whose sales are $1,864.6 million, needs to have a P/E below 40 to pass this criterion. BMA's P/E of (11.33) is considered acceptable.
EPS GROWTH RATE: PASS
This methodology favors companies that have several years of fast earnings growth, as these companies have a proven formula for growth that in many cases can continue many more years. This methodology likes to see earnings growth in the range of 20% to 50%, as earnings growth over 50% may be unsustainable. The EPS growth rate for BMA is 41.3%, based on the average of the 3, 4 and 5 year historical eps growth rates, which is considered 'OK'. However, it may be difficult to sustain such a high growth rate.
TOTAL DEBT/EQUITY RATIO: NEUTRAL
BMA is a financial company so debt to equity rules are not applied to determine the company's financial soundness.
EQUITY/ASSETS RATIO: PASS
This methodology uses the Equity/Assets Ratio as a way to determine a financial intermediary's health, as it is a better measure than the Debt/Equity Ratio. BMA's Equity/Assets ratio (14.00%) is very healthy and above the minimum 5% this methodology looks for, thus passing the criterion.
RETURN ON ASSETS: PASS
This methodology uses Return on Assets as a way to measure a financial intermediary's profitability. BMA's ROA (5.03%) is above the minimum 1% that this methodology looks for, thus passing the criterion.
FREE CASH FLOW: NEUTRAL
The Free Cash Flow/Price ratio, though not a requirement, is considered a bonus if it is above 35%. A positive Cash Flow (the higher the better) separates a wonderfully reliable investment from a shaky one. This methodology prefers not to invest in companies that rely heavily on capital spending. This ratio for BMA (15.30%) is too low to add to the attractiveness of the stock. Keep in mind, however, that it does not adversely affect the company as it is a bonus criteria.
NET CASH POSITION: NEUTRAL
Another bonus for a company is having a Net Cash/Price ratio above 30%. Lynch defines net cash as cash and marketable securities minus long term debt. According to this methodology, a high value for this ratio dramatically cuts down on the risk of the security. The Net Cash/Price ratio for BMA (-7.93%) is too low to add to the attractiveness of this company. Keep in mind, however, that it does not adversely affect the company as it is a bonus criteria. |
| Strategy: Small-Cap Growth Investor
Based on: Motley Fool |
| Walker & Dunlop, Inc. is a holding company, which conducts all of its operations through Walker & Dunlop, LLC. The Company is a provider of commercial real estate financial services in the United States, with a primary focus on multifamily lending. It originates, sells, and services a range of multifamily and other commercial real estate financing products, including Multifamily Finance, Federal Housing Administration (FHA) Finance, Capital Markets, and Proprietary Capital. Its clients are developers and owners of commercial real estate. It originates and sells loans through the programs of the Federal National Mortgage Association (Fannie Mae), the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation (Freddie Mac, and together with Fannie Mae, the government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs)), the Government National Mortgage Association (Ginnie Mae) and the Federal Housing Administration, a division of the United States Department of Housing and Urban Development (together with Ginnie Mae, HUD). |
PROFIT MARGIN: PASS
This methodology seeks companies with a minimum trailing 12 month after tax profit margin of 7%. The companies that pass this criterion have strong positions within their respective industries and offer greater shareholder returns. A true test of the quality of a company is that they can sustain this margin. WD's profit margin of 19.87% passes this test.
RELATIVE STRENGTH: FAIL
The investor must look at the relative strength of the company in question. Companies whose relative strength is 90 or above (that is, the company outperforms 90% or more of the market for the past year), are considered attractive. Companies whose price has been rising much quicker than the market tend to keep rising. Although WD's relative strength of 88 is below the acceptable level, yet it is very close. Keep an eye on the stock as it could move into the acceptable range.
COMPARE SALES AND EPS GROWTH TO THE SAME PERIOD LAST YEAR: PASS
Companies must demonstrate both revenue and net income growth of at least 25% as compared to the prior year. These growth rates give you the dynamic companies that you are looking for. These rates for WD (68.66% for EPS, and 46.99% for Sales) are good enough to pass.
INSIDER HOLDINGS: FAIL
WD's insiders should own at least 10% (they own 9.16%) of the company's outstanding shares. This does not satisfy the minimum requirement, and companies that do not pass this criteria are less attractive.
CASH FLOW FROM OPERATIONS: PASS
A positive cash flow is typically used for internal expansion, acquisitions, dividend payments, etc. A company that generates rather than consumes cash is in much better shape to fund such activities on their own, rather than needing to borrow funds to do so. WD's free cash flow of $24.28 per share passes this test.
PROFIT MARGIN CONSISTENCY: PASS
WD's profit margin has been consistent or even increasing over the past three years (Current year: 19.80%, Last year: 17.54%, Two years ago: 14.25%), passing the requirement. It is a sign of good management and a healthy and competitive enterprise.
R&D AS A PERCENTAGE OF SALES: NEUTRAL
This criterion is not critically important for companies that are not high-tech or medical stocks because they are not as R&D dependant as companies within those sectors. Not much emphasis should be placed on this test in WD's case.
CASH AND CASH EQUIVALENTS: PASS
WD's level of cash $118.8 million passes this criteria. If a company is a cash generator, like WD, it has the ability to pay off debt (if it has any) or acquire other companies. Most importantly, good operations generate cash.
ACCOUNT RECEIVABLE TO SALES: PASS
This methodology wants to make sure that a company's accounts receivable do not get significantly out of line with sales. It's a warning sign if a company's accounts receivable relative to sales increases significantly when compared to the previous year. Up to a 30% increase is allowed, but no more. Accounts Receivable to Sales for WD was 5.09% last year, while for this year it is 5.12%. Since the AR to sales has been flat, WD passes this test.
"THE FOOL RATIO" (P/E TO GROWTH): PASS
The "Fool Ratio" is an extremely important aspect of this analysis. If the company has attractive fundamentals and its Fool Ratio is 0.5 or less (WD's is 0.37), the shares are looked upon favorably. These high quality companies can often wind up as the biggest winners. WD passes this test.
The following criteria for WD are less important which means you would place less emphasis on them when making your investment decision using this strategy:
AVERAGE SHARES OUTSTANDING: PASS
WD has not been significantly increasing the number of shares outstanding within recent years which is a good sign. WD currently has 32.0 million shares outstanding. This means the company is not taking any measures, with regards to the number of shares, that will dilute or devalue the stock.
SALES: FAIL
Companies with sales less than $500 million should be chosen. It is among these small-cap stocks that investors can find "an uncut gem", ones that institutions won't be able to buy yet. WD's sales of $575.3 million based on trailing 12 month sales, are too high and would therefore fail the test. It is companies with $500 million or less in sales that are most likely to double or triple in size in the next few years.
DAILY DOLLAR VOLUME: PASS
WD passes the Daily Dollar Volume (DDV of $9.5 million) test. It is required that this number be less than $25 million because these are the stocks that remain relatively undiscovered by institutions. "You'll be scoring touchdowns against the big guys on your turf."
PRICE: PASS
This is a very insignificant criterion for this methodology. But basically, low prices are chosen because "small numbers multiply more rapidly than large ones" and the potential for big returns expands. WD with a price of $40.72 passes the price test, even though it doesn't fall in the preferred range. The price should be above $7 in order to eliminate penny stocks and below $20 since most stocks in this price range are undiscovered by the institutions.
INCOME TAX PERCENTAGE: PASS
WD's income tax paid expressed as a percentage of pretax income this year was (38.47%) and last year (38.98%) are greater than 20% which is an acceptable level. If the tax rate is below 20% this could mean that the earnings that were reported were unrealistically inflated due to the lower level of income tax paid. This is a concern. |
GRUPO FINANCIERO GALICIA S.A. (ADR) |
| Strategy: Growth/Value Investor
Based on: James P. O'Shaughnessy |
| Grupo Financiero Galicia S.A. (Grupo Financiero Galicia) is a financial services holding company. The Company's segments include Banking, Regional Credit Cards, CFA, Insurance and Other Grupo Galicia Businesses. Banco de Galicia y Buenos Aires S.A. (Banco Galicia) is a subsidiary of the Company. Its banking business segment represents Banco Galicia consolidated line by line with Banco Galicia Uruguay S.A. (Galicia Uruguay). It operates the regional credit cards segment through Tarjetas Regionales S.A. and its subsidiaries. Its CFA business segment extends unsecured personal loans to low and middle-income segments of the Argentine population. The Company operates the insurance segment through Sudamericana Holding S.A. and its subsidiaries. Its Other Grupo Galicia Businesses segment includes the results of Galicia Warrants S.A., Galicia Administradora de Fondos S.A. Sociedad Gerente de Fondos Comunes de Inversion and Net Investment S.A. |
MARKET CAP: PASS
The first requirement of the Cornerstone Growth Strategy is that the company has a market capitalization of at least $150 million. This will screen out the companies that are too illiquid for most investors, but still include a small growth company. GGAL, with a market cap of $3,352 million, passes this criterion.
EARNINGS PER SHARE PERSISTENCE: PASS
The Cornerstone Growth methodology looks for companies that show persistent earnings growth without regard to magnitude. To fulfill this requirement, a company's earnings must increase each year for a five year period. GGAL, whose annual EPS before extraordinary items for the last 5 years (from earliest to the most recent fiscal year) were 0.07, 0.09, 0.17, 0.22 and 0.30, passes this test.
PRICE/SALES RATIO: PASS
The Price/Sales ratio should be below 1.5. This value criterion, coupled with the growth criterion, identify growth stocks that are still cheap to buy. GGAL's Price/Sales ratio of 1.27, based on trailing 12 month sales, passes this criterion.
RELATIVE STRENGTH: PASS
The final criterion for the Cornerstone Growth Strategy requires that the Relative Strength of the company be among the top 50 of the stocks screened using the previous criterion. This gives you the opportunity to buy the growth stocks you are searching for just as the market is embracing them. GGAL, whose relative strength is 50, is in the top 50 and would pass this last criterion. |
HUNTINGTON INGALLS INDUSTRIES INC |
| Strategy: P/E/Growth Investor
Based on: Peter Lynch |
| Huntington Ingalls Industries, Inc. (HII) designs, builds, overhauls and repairs ships for the United States Navy and the United States Coast Guard. The Company is the designer, builder and refueler of nuclear powered aircraft carriers, a builder of amphibious assault and expeditionary warfare ships for the United States Navy and the sole builder of National Security Cutters (NSCs) for the United States Coast Guard. The Company operates its shipbuilding business through Huntington Ingalls Incorporated subsidiary, which is organized into two segments: Ingalls Shipbuilding (Ingalls), which includes non-nuclear ship design, construction, repair and maintenance businesses, and Newport News Shipbuilding (Newport News), which includes the nuclear ship design, construction, overhaul, refueling, and repair and maintenance businesses. It designs and builds nuclear-powered submarines for the United States Navy and builds the Navy's fleet of DDG51 Arleigh Burke-class destroyers. |
DETERMINE THE CLASSIFICATION:
This methodology would consider HII a "fast-grower".
P/E/GROWTH RATIO: PASS
The investor should examine the P/E (17.57) relative to the growth rate (37.69%), based on the average of the 3 and 4 year historical eps growth rates, for a company. This is a quick way of determining the fairness of the price. In this particular case, the P/E/G ratio for HII (0.47) is very favorable.
SALES AND P/E RATIO: PASS
For companies with sales greater than $1 billion, this methodology likes to see that the P/E ratio remain below 40. Large companies can have a difficult time maintaining a growth high enough to support a P/E above this threshold. HII, whose sales are $7,068.0 million, needs to have a P/E below 40 to pass this criterion. HII's P/E of (17.57) is considered acceptable.
INVENTORY TO SALES: PASS
When inventories increase faster than sales, it is a red flag. However an increase of up to 5% is considered bearable if all other ratios appear attractive. Inventory to sales for HII was 4.06% last year, while for this year it is 2.97%. Since inventory to sales has decreased from last year by -1.09%, HII passes this test.
EPS GROWTH RATE: PASS
This methodology favors companies that have several years of fast earnings growth, as these companies have a proven formula for growth that in many cases can continue many more years. This methodology likes to see earnings growth in the range of 20% to 50%, as earnings growth over 50% may be unsustainable. The EPS growth rate for HII is 37.7%, based on the average of the 3 and 4 year historical eps growth rates, which is considered 'OK'. However, it may be difficult to sustain such a high growth rate.
TOTAL DEBT/EQUITY RATIO: PASS
This methodology would consider the Debt/Equity ratio for HII (77.31%) to be mediocre. If the Debt/Equity ratio is this high, the other ratios and financial statistics for HII should be good enough to compensate.
FREE CASH FLOW: NEUTRAL
The Free Cash Flow/Price ratio, though not a requirement, is considered a bonus if it is above 35%. A positive Cash Flow (the higher the better) separates a wonderfully reliable investment from a shaky one. This methodology prefers not to invest in companies that rely heavily on capital spending. This ratio for HII (4.35%) is too low to add to the attractiveness of the stock. Keep in mind, however, that it does not adversely affect the company as it is a bonus criteria.
NET CASH POSITION: NEUTRAL
Another bonus for a company is having a Net Cash/Price ratio above 30%. Lynch defines net cash as cash and marketable securities minus long term debt. According to this methodology, a high value for this ratio dramatically cuts down on the risk of the security. The Net Cash/Price ratio for HII (-5.56%) is too low to add to the attractiveness of this company. Keep in mind, however, that it does not adversely affect the company as it is a bonus criteria. |
ADVANCED ENERGY INDUSTRIES, INC. |
| Strategy: Small-Cap Growth Investor
Based on: Motley Fool |
| Advanced Energy Industries, Inc. provides precision power conversion, measurement and control solutions. The Company is engaged in designing, manufacturing, selling and supporting its power conversion products and solutions, used in various applications ranging from manufacturing and industrial processes to instrumentation, and test and measurement. It operates through Precision Power segment. Its process power products enable manufacturing processes that use thin films for various products, such as semiconductor devices, flat panel displays, thin film renewables, hard and industrial coatings and architectural glass. It also supplies power control modules for controlling thermal processes, and thermal instrumentation products for temperature measurement, both of which provide solutions for thin film semiconductor, thin film industrial and heavy industry. Its remote plasma sources are used in the thin films processing industries and in gas abatement applications. |
PROFIT MARGIN: PASS
This methodology seeks companies with a minimum trailing 12 month after tax profit margin of 7%. The companies that pass this criterion have strong positions within their respective industries and offer greater shareholder returns. A true test of the quality of a company is that they can sustain this margin. AEIS's profit margin of 24.18% passes this test.
RELATIVE STRENGTH: PASS
The investor must look at the relative strength of the company in question. Companies whose relative strength is 90 or above (that is, the company outperforms 90% or more of the market for the past year), are considered attractive. Companies whose price has been rising much quicker than the market tend to keep rising. AEIS, with a relative strength of 92, satisfies this test.
COMPARE SALES AND EPS GROWTH TO THE SAME PERIOD LAST YEAR: PASS
Companies must demonstrate both revenue and net income growth of at least 25% as compared to the prior year. These growth rates give you the dynamic companies that you are looking for. These rates for AEIS (260.71% for EPS, and 55.76% for Sales) are good enough to pass.
INSIDER HOLDINGS: FAIL
AEIS's insiders should own at least 10% (they own 0.34%) of the company's outstanding shares. This does not satisfy the minimum requirement, and companies that do not pass this criteria are less attractive.
CASH FLOW FROM OPERATIONS: PASS
A positive cash flow is typically used for internal expansion, acquisitions, dividend payments, etc. A company that generates rather than consumes cash is in much better shape to fund such activities on their own, rather than needing to borrow funds to do so. AEIS's free cash flow of $2.81 per share passes this test.
PROFIT MARGIN CONSISTENCY: FAIL
The profit margin in the past must be consistently increasing. The profit margin of AEIS has been inconsistent in the past three years (Current year: 26.35%, Last year: -38.21%, Two years ago: 12.79%), which is unacceptable. This inconsistency will carryover directly to the company's bottom line, or earnings per share.
R&D AS A PERCENTAGE OF SALES: FAIL
AEIS has reduced their R&D expenditures(currently $44.4 million) over the past two years which is unacceptable. AEIS is jeopardizing the future in order to boost current EPS numbers. This criterion is particularly important for high-tech and medical stocks because they are so R&D dependant.
CASH AND CASH EQUIVALENTS: PASS
AEIS's level of cash $286.7 million passes this criteria. If a company is a cash generator, like AEIS, it has the ability to pay off debt (if it has any) or acquire other companies. Most importantly, good operations generate cash.
INVENTORY TO SALES: PASS
This methodology strongly believes that companies, especially small ones, should have tight control over inventory. It's a warning sign if a company's inventory relative to sales increases significantly when compared to the previous year. Up to a 30% increase is allowed, but no more. Inventory to Sales for AEIS was 12.67% last year, while for this year it is 11.53%. Since the inventory to sales is decreasing by -1.14% the stock passes this criterion.
ACCOUNT RECEIVABLE TO SALES: PASS
This methodology wants to make sure that a company's accounts receivable do not get significantly out of line with sales. It's a warning sign if a company's accounts receivable relative to sales increases significantly when compared to the previous year. Up to a 30% increase is allowed, but no more. Accounts Receivable to Sales for AEIS was 15.43% last year, while for this year it is 15.95%. Although the AR to sales is rising, it is below the max 30% that is allowed. The investor can still consider the stock if all other criteria appear very attractive.
LONG TERM DEBT/EQUITY RATIO: PASS
AEIS's trailing twelve-month Debt/Equity ratio (0.00%) is at a great level according to this methodology because the superior companies that you are looking for don't need to borrow money in order to grow.
"THE FOOL RATIO" (P/E TO GROWTH): PASS
The "Fool Ratio" is an extremely important aspect of this analysis. If the company's Fool Ratio is between 0.5 and 0.65 (AEIS's is 0.60), the company demonstrates excellence in its fundamentals and have soundly beat the earnings estimates. AEIS passes this test.
The following criteria for AEIS are less important which means you would place less emphasis on them when making your investment decision using this strategy:
AVERAGE SHARES OUTSTANDING: PASS
AEIS has not been significantly increasing the number of shares outstanding within recent years which is a good sign. AEIS currently has 40.0 million shares outstanding. This means the company is not taking any measures, with regards to the number of shares, that will dilute or devalue the stock.
SALES: PASS
Companies with sales less than $500 million should be chosen. It is among these small-cap stocks that investors can find "an uncut gem", ones that institutions won't be able to buy yet. AEIS's sales of $483.7 million based on trailing 12 month sales, are fine, making this company one such "prospective gem". AEIS passes the sales test.
DAILY DOLLAR VOLUME: PASS
AEIS passes the Daily Dollar Volume (DDV of $22.0 million) test. It is required that this number be less than $25 million because these are the stocks that remain relatively undiscovered by institutions. "You'll be scoring touchdowns against the big guys on your turf."
PRICE: PASS
This is a very insignificant criterion for this methodology. But basically, low prices are chosen because "small numbers multiply more rapidly than large ones" and the potential for big returns expands. AEIS with a price of $63.06 passes the price test, even though it doesn't fall in the preferred range. The price should be above $7 in order to eliminate penny stocks and below $20 since most stocks in this price range are undiscovered by the institutions.
INCOME TAX PERCENTAGE: FAIL
AEIS's income tax paid expressed as a percentage of pretax income either this year (8.69%) or last year (20.83%) is below 20% which is cause for concern. Because the tax rate is below 20% this could mean that the earnings that were reported are unrealistically inflated due to the lower level of income tax paid. However, we have utilized a sophisticated formula so that the appropriate figures reflect a 'normal' tax rate (35%). |
CHIMERA INVESTMENT CORPORATION |
| Strategy: P/E/Growth Investor
Based on: Peter Lynch |
| Chimera Investment Corporation is a real estate investment trust. The Company is primarily engaged in the business of investing, on a leveraged basis, in a diversified portfolio of mortgage assets, including Agency residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS), Non-Agency RMBS, Agency commercial mortgage backed securities (CMBS), residential mortgage loans and real estate related securities. The mortgage backed securities (MBS) and real estate-related securities the Company purchases may include investment-grade and non-investment grade classes, including the BB-rated, B-rated and non-rated classes. The Company invests in mortgage pass-through certificates issued or guaranteed by The Government National Mortgage Association (Ginnie Mae), The Federal National Mortgage Association (Fannie Mae) or The Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation (Freddie Mac). The Company may also invest in collateralized mortgage obligations (CMOs) issued by the Agencies. |
DETERMINE THE CLASSIFICATION:
This methodology would consider CIM a "fast-grower".
P/E/GROWTH RATIO: PASS
The investor should examine the P/E (6.40) relative to the growth rate (22.88%), based on the average of the 3, 4 and 5 year historical eps growth rates, for a company. This is a quick way of determining the fairness of the price. In this particular case, the P/E/G ratio for CIM (0.28) is very favorable.
SALES AND P/E RATIO: NEUTRAL
For companies with sales greater than $1 billion, this methodology likes to see that the P/E ratio remain below 40. Large companies can have a difficult time maintaining a growth rate high enough to support a P/E above this threshold. CIM, whose sales are $934.1 million, is not considered large enough to apply the P/E ratio analysis. However, an investor can analyze the P/E ratio relative to the EPS growth rate.
EPS GROWTH RATE: PASS
This methodology favors companies that have several years of fast earnings growth, as these companies have a proven formula for growth that in many cases can continue many more years. This methodology likes to see earnings growth in the range of 20% to 50%, as earnings growth over 50% may be unsustainable. The EPS growth rate for CIM is 22.9%, based on the average of the 3, 4 and 5 year historical eps growth rates, which is considered very good.
TOTAL DEBT/EQUITY RATIO: NEUTRAL
CIM is a financial company so debt to equity rules are not applied to determine the company's financial soundness.
EQUITY/ASSETS RATIO: PASS
This methodology uses the Equity/Assets Ratio as a way to determine a financial intermediary's health, as it is a better measure than the Debt/Equity Ratio. CIM's Equity/Assets ratio (19.00%) is extremely healthy and above the minimum 5% this methodology looks for, thus passing the criterion.
RETURN ON ASSETS: PASS
This methodology uses Return on Assets as a way to measure a financial intermediary's profitability. CIM's ROA (3.45%) is above the minimum 1% that this methodology looks for, thus passing the criterion.
FREE CASH FLOW: NEUTRAL
The Free Cash Flow/Price ratio, though not a requirement, is considered a bonus if it is above 35%. A positive Cash Flow (the higher the better) separates a wonderfully reliable investment from a shaky one. This methodology prefers not to invest in companies that rely heavily on capital spending. This ratio for CIM (2.78%) is too low to add to the attractiveness of the stock. Keep in mind, however, that it does not adversely affect the company as it is a bonus criteria.
NET CASH POSITION: NEUTRAL
Another bonus for a company is having a Net Cash/Price ratio above 30%. Lynch defines net cash as cash and marketable securities minus long term debt. According to this methodology, a high value for this ratio dramatically cuts down on the risk of the security. The Net Cash/Price ratio for CIM (-201.78%) is too low to add to the attractiveness of this company. Keep in mind, however, that it does not adversely affect the company as it is a bonus criteria. |
| Strategy: Value Investor
Based on: Benjamin Graham |
| Hibbett Sports, Inc. operates sporting goods stores in small to mid-sized markets in the South, Southwest, Mid-Atlantic and Midwest regions of the United States. The Company operates approximately 1,040 stores in over 30 states, which consists of approximately 1,020 Hibbett Sports stores and over 20 Sports Additions athletic shoe stores. It sells merchandise of various brands, such as Nike, Under Armour, Reebok, adidas, Easton, The North Face and Yeti. It maintains a single wholesale and logistics facility in Alabaster, Alabama. Hibbett Sports stores offer a merchandising mix of localized apparel, footwear, equipment and accessories. Sports Additions store consists of a merchandising mix of athletic footwear, and caps and a limited assortment of apparel. Hibbett Team Sales, Inc. (Team), a subsidiary of the Company, is a supplier of customized athletic apparel, equipment and footwear to school athletic programs in Alabama and parts of Georgia, Florida and Mississippi. |
SECTOR: PASS
HIBB is neither a technology nor financial Company, and therefore this methodology is applicable.
SALES: PASS
The investor must select companies of "adequate size". This includes companies with annual sales greater than $340 million. HIBB's sales of $971.8 million, based on trailing 12 month sales, pass this test.
CURRENT RATIO: PASS
The current ratio must be greater than or equal to 2. Companies that meet this criterion are typically financially secure and defensive. HIBB's current ratio of 3.27 passes the test.
LONG-TERM DEBT IN RELATION TO NET CURRENT ASSETS: PASS
For industrial companies, long-term debt must not exceed net current assets (current assets minus current liabilities). Companies that meet this criterion display one of the attributes of a financially secure organization. The long-term debt for HIBB is $0.0 million, while the net current assets are $243.1 million. HIBB passes this test.
LONG-TERM EPS GROWTH: PASS
Companies must increase their EPS by at least 30% over a ten-year period and EPS must not have been negative for any year within the last 5 years. Companies with this type of growth tend to be financially secure and have proven themselves over time. HIBB's EPS growth over that period of 173.0% passes the EPS growth test.
P/E RATIO: PASS
The Price/Earnings (P/E) ratio, based on the greater of the current PE or the PE using average earnings over the last 3 fiscal years, must be "moderate", which this methodology states is not greater than 15. Stocks with moderate P/Es are more defensive by nature. HIBB's P/E of 9.70 (using the 3 year PE) passes this test.
PRICE/BOOK RATIO: PASS
The Price/Book ratio must also be reasonable. That is, the Price/Book multiplied by P/E cannot be greater than 22. HIBB's Price/Book ratio is 1.82, while the P/E is 9.70. HIBB passes the Price/Book test. |
| Strategy: Value Investor
Based on: Benjamin Graham |
| Cooper Tire & Rubber Company (Cooper) is a manufacturer and marketer of replacement tires. The Company specializes in the design, manufacture, marketing and sales of passenger car and light truck tires. Cooper and its subsidiaries sell medium truck, motorcycle and racing tires. It has four business segments: North America, composed of its operations in the United States and Canada; Latin America, composed of its operations in Mexico, Central America and South America; Europe, and Asia. The North America and Latin America segments are presented as the Americas Tire Operations segment. The results of the combined Asia and Europe segments are presented as International Tire Operations segment. Cooper and its family of companies operate approximately eight manufacturing facilities and over 20 distribution centers in over 10 countries. Its Americas Tire Operations segment manufactures and markets passenger car and light truck tires, for sale in the United States replacement market. |
SECTOR: PASS
CTB is neither a technology nor financial Company, and therefore this methodology is applicable.
SALES: PASS
The investor must select companies of "adequate size". This includes companies with annual sales greater than $340 million. CTB's sales of $2,924.9 million, based on trailing 12 month sales, pass this test.
CURRENT RATIO: PASS
The current ratio must be greater than or equal to 2. Companies that meet this criterion are typically financially secure and defensive. CTB's current ratio of 2.84 passes the test.
LONG-TERM DEBT IN RELATION TO NET CURRENT ASSETS: PASS
For industrial companies, long-term debt must not exceed net current assets (current assets minus current liabilities). Companies that meet this criterion display one of the attributes of a financially secure organization. The long-term debt for CTB is $297.1 million, while the net current assets are $919.7 million. CTB passes this test.
LONG-TERM EPS GROWTH: FAIL
Companies must increase their EPS by at least 30% over a ten-year period and EPS must not have been negative for any year within the last 5 years. EPS for CTB were negative within the last 5 years and therefore the company fails this criterion.
P/E RATIO: PASS
The Price/Earnings (P/E) ratio, based on the greater of the current PE or the PE using average earnings over the last 3 fiscal years, must be "moderate", which this methodology states is not greater than 15. Stocks with moderate P/Es are more defensive by nature. CTB's P/E of 10.40 (using the 3 year PE) passes this test.
PRICE/BOOK RATIO: PASS
The Price/Book ratio must also be reasonable. That is, the Price/Book multiplied by P/E cannot be greater than 22. CTB's Price/Book ratio is 1.98, while the P/E is 10.40. CTB passes the Price/Book test. |
| Strategy: Growth Investor
Based on: Martin Zweig |
| NIC Inc. is a provider of digital government services that help governments use technology to provide services to businesses and citizens. The Company operates through Outsourced Portals segment. The Company offers its services through two channels: primary outsourced portal businesses, and software and services businesses. In the primary outsourced portal businesses, the Company enters into contracts with state and local governments to design, build, and operate Internet-based, enterprise-wide portals on their behalf. Its software and services businesses include its subsidiaries that provide software development and payment processing services, other than outsourced portal services, to state and local governments, as well as federal agencies. The Company's outsourced portal businesses include interactive government services (IGS), driver history records (DHR), Portal software development and services, and Portal management. |
P/E RATIO: PASS
The P/E of a company must be greater than 5 to eliminate weak companies, but not more than 3 times the current Market P/E because the situation is much too risky, and never greater than 43. EGOV's P/E is 25.03, based on trailing 12 month earnings, while the current market PE is 18.00. Therefore, it passes the first test.
REVENUE GROWTH IN RELATION TO EPS GROWTH: FAIL
Revenue Growth must not be substantially less than earnings growth. For earnings to continue to grow over time they must be supported by a comparable or better sales growth rate and not just by cost cutting or other non-sales measures. EGOV's revenue growth is 10.40%, while it's earnings growth rate is 19.66%, based on the average of the 3, 4 and 5 year historical eps growth rates. Therefore, EGOV fails this criterion.
SALES GROWTH RATE: PASS
Another important issue regarding sales growth is that the rate of quarterly sales growth is rising. To evaluate this, the change from this quarter last year to the present quarter (10.1%) must be examined, and then compared to the previous quarter last year compared to the previous quarter (7.1%) of the current year. Sales growth for the prior must be greater than the latter. For EGOV this criterion has been met.
The earnings numbers of a company should be examined from various different angles. Three of these angles are stability in the trend of earnings, earnings persistence, and earnings acceleration. To evaluate stability, the stock has to pass the following four criteria.
CURRENT QUARTER EARNINGS: PASS
The first of these criteria is that the current EPS be positive. EGOV's EPS ($0.20) pass this test.
QUARTERLY EARNINGS ONE YEAR AGO: PASS
The EPS for the quarter one year ago must be positive. EGOV's EPS for this quarter last year ($0.14) pass this test.
POSITIVE EARNINGS GROWTH RATE FOR CURRENT QUARTER: PASS
The growth rate of the current quarter's earnings compared to the same quarter a year ago must also be positive. EGOV's growth rate of 42.86% passes this test.
EARNINGS GROWTH RATE FOR THE PAST SEVERAL QUARTERS: PASS
Compare the earnings growth rate of the previous three quarters with long-term EPS growth rate. Earnings growth in the previous 3 quarters should be at least half of the long-term EPS growth rate. Half of the long-term EPS growth rate for EGOV is 9.83%. This should be less than the growth rates for the 3 previous quarters, which are 35.71%, 17.65%, and 26.32%. EGOV passes this test, which means that it has good, reasonably steady earnings.
This strategy looks at the rate which earnings grow and evaluates this rate of growth from different angles. The 4 tests immediately following are detailed below.
EPS GROWTH FOR CURRENT QUARTER MUST BE GREATER THAN PRIOR 3 QUARTERS: PASS
If the growth rate of the prior three quarter's earnings, 26.00%, (versus the same three quarters a year earlier) is less than the growth rate of the current quarter earnings, 42.86%, (versus the same quarter one year ago) then the stock passes.
EPS GROWTH FOR CURRENT QUARTER MUST BE GREATER THAN THE HISTORICAL GROWTH RATE: PASS
The EPS growth rate for the current quarter, 42.86% must be greater than or equal to the historical growth which is 19.66%. EGOV would therefore pass this test.
EARNINGS PERSISTENCE: PASS
Companies must show persistent yearly earnings growth. To fulfill this requirement a company's earnings must increase each year for a five year period. EGOV, whose annual EPS growth before extraordinary items for the previous 5 years (from the earliest to the most recent fiscal year) were 0.40, 0.49, 0.59, 0.63 and 0.84, passes this test.
LONG-TERM EPS GROWTH: PASS
One final earnings test required is that the long-term earnings growth rate must be at least 15% per year. EGOV's long-term growth rate of 19.66%, based on the average of the 3, 4 and 5 year historical eps growth rates, passes this test.
TOTAL DEBT/EQUITY RATIO: PASS
A final criterion is that a company must not have a high level of debt. A high level of total debt, due to high interest expenses, can have a very negative effect on earnings if business moderately turns down. If a company does have a high level, an investor may want to avoid this stock altogether. EGOV's Debt/Equity (0.00%) is not considered high relative to its industry (201.60%) and passes this test.
INSIDER TRANSACTIONS: PASS
A factor that adds to a stock's attractiveness is if insider buy transactions number 3 or more, while insider sell transactions are zero. Zweig calls this an insider buy signal. For EGOV, this criterion has not been met (insider sell transactions are 375, while insiders buying number 4). Despite the fact that insider sells out number insider buys for this company, Zweig considers even one insider buy transaction enough to prevent an insider sell signal, therefore there is not an insider sell signal and the stock passes this criterion. |
| Strategy: P/E/Growth Investor
Based on: Peter Lynch |
| Sanderson Farms, Inc. is a poultry processing company. The Company is engaged in the production, processing, marketing and distribution of fresh and frozen chicken, and also preparation, processing, marketing and distribution of processed and minimally prepared chicken. It sells ice pack, chill pack, bulk pack and frozen chicken, in whole, cut-up and boneless form, under the Sanderson Farms brand name to retailers, distributors, casual dining operators, customers reselling frozen chicken into export markets. The Company, through its subsidiaries, Sanderson Farms, Inc. (Production Division) and Sanderson Farms, Inc. (Processing Division), conducts its chicken operations. Sanderson Farms, Inc. (Production Division) is engaged in the production of chickens to the broiler-stage. Sanderson Farms, Inc. (Foods Division) is engaged in the processing, sale and distribution of chickens. The Company, through Sanderson Farms, Inc. (Foods Division), conducts its prepared chicken business. |
DETERMINE THE CLASSIFICATION:
This methodology would consider SAFM a "fast-grower".
P/E/GROWTH RATIO: PASS
The investor should examine the P/E (10.35) relative to the growth rate (25.52%), based on the average of the 3 and 4 year historical eps growth rates, for a company. This is a quick way of determining the fairness of the price. In this particular case, the P/E/G ratio for SAFM (0.41) is very favorable.
SALES AND P/E RATIO: PASS
For companies with sales greater than $1 billion, this methodology likes to see that the P/E ratio remain below 40. Large companies can have a difficult time maintaining a growth high enough to support a P/E above this threshold. SAFM, whose sales are $2,899.2 million, needs to have a P/E below 40 to pass this criterion. SAFM's P/E of (10.35) is considered acceptable.
INVENTORY TO SALES: PASS
When inventories increase faster than sales, it is a red flag. However an increase of up to 5% is considered bearable if all other ratios appear attractive. Inventory to sales for SAFM was 7.09% last year, while for this year it is 7.82%. Since inventory has been rising, this methodology would not look favorably at the stock but would not completely eliminate it from consideration as the inventory increase (0.73%) is below 5%.
EPS GROWTH RATE: PASS
This methodology favors companies that have several years of fast earnings growth, as these companies have a proven formula for growth that in many cases can continue many more years. This methodology likes to see earnings growth in the range of 20% to 50%, as earnings growth over 50% may be unsustainable. The EPS growth rate for SAFM is 25.5%, based on the average of the 3 and 4 year historical eps growth rates, which is acceptable.
TOTAL DEBT/EQUITY RATIO: PASS
This methodology would consider the Debt/Equity ratio for SAFM (0.00%) to be wonderfully low (equity is at least ten times debt). This ratio is one quick way to determine the financial strength of the company.
FREE CASH FLOW: NEUTRAL
The Free Cash Flow/Price ratio, though not a requirement, is considered a bonus if it is above 35%. A positive Cash Flow (the higher the better) separates a wonderfully reliable investment from a shaky one. This methodology prefers not to invest in companies that rely heavily on capital spending. This ratio for SAFM (2.39%) is too low to add to the attractiveness of the stock. Keep in mind, however, that it does not adversely affect the company as it is a bonus criteria.
NET CASH POSITION: NEUTRAL
Another bonus for a company is having a Net Cash/Price ratio above 30%. Lynch defines net cash as cash and marketable securities minus long term debt. According to this methodology, a high value for this ratio dramatically cuts down on the risk of the security. The Net Cash/Price ratio for SAFM (11.51%) is too low to add to the attractiveness of this company. Keep in mind, however, that it does not adversely affect the company as it is a bonus criteria. |
Watch List
The top scoring stocks not currently in the Hot List portfolio.
| Ticker |
Company Name |
Industry |
Current
Score |
| ESNT |
ESSENT GROUP LTD |
Insurance (Prop. & Casualty) |
69% |
| MGA |
MAGNA INTERNATIONAL INC. (USA) |
Auto & Truck Parts |
57% |
| CATO |
CATO CORP |
Retail (Apparel) |
56% |
| MASI |
MASIMO CORPORATION |
Medical Equipment & Supplies |
54% |
| FB |
FACEBOOK INC |
Computer Services |
53% |
| MAN |
MANPOWERGROUP INC. |
Business Services |
53% |
| FIZZ |
NATIONAL BEVERAGE CORP. |
Beverages (Non-Alcoholic) |
50% |
| HOMB |
HOME BANCSHARES INC |
Regional Banks |
48% |
| KORS |
MICHAEL KORS HOLDINGS LTD |
Apparel/Accessories |
47% |
| PAYC |
PAYCOM SOFTWARE INC |
Software & Programming |
47% |
|
