Economy & Markets

Stocks responded favorably to a Federal Reserve rate cut this week, pushing the S&P 500 near a record high as of midday Thursday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was also up, led by tech giants like Microsoft. New trade talks between Chinese and American negotiators has buoyed sentiment for technology shares, but the outcome of the talks remains to be seen. A rate cut - the second this year - was seen as likely, and already factored in to the market. But Fed officials remain divided on more cuts for the foreseeable future. The U.S. labor market is still strong, and economic growth is moderate, they said this week. Corporate earnings for the third quarter will start coming out over the next few weeks. Investors will be looking for signs that growth has stalled and listening to what executives say about global business trends. Fed Ex shares fell 14% earlier this week after the company posted disappointing numbers and warned about trade and policy uncertainty. The S&P 500 has a price-to-earnings ratio of 23.22, while the Dow trades at 19.50.

Some numbers to consider:

1. The Federal Reserve approved another quarter-point rate cut, the second this year after an 11 year drought. But the central bank appeared to be divided on whether to make further reductions in the months ahead.

2. Home building jumped in August to the highest level since June 2007, according to data from the Commerce Department.

3. U.S. industrial production jumped a seasonally adjusted 0.6% in August from the prior month, beating expectations of 0.2% growth.

4. Retail sales in the U.S. rose in August because of a bump in auto buying and strong online sales. Commerce Department data says retail sales rose 0.4% in August, which was down from 0.8% in July.

5. The Labor Department said import prices dropped 0.5% in August thanks to declines in the cost of petroleum products and food.

Recommended Reading

Value stocks are cheaper than ever, according to Morningstar. In some cases it's getting hard to tell the difference between a true value stock and a value trap. David Keir of TB Saracen Global told Morningstar that the most important element to look for is whether a company shows growth potential. Watch out for any sudden decline in revenue growth, issues in the sector, declining margins and weakened balance sheets. Tom Wildgoose of the Nomura Global High Conviction fund also says investors need to differentiate between companies experiencing cyclical shifts in earnings and those threatened by a more permanent shift. For more on this, read here . And see below for links to blog posts and articles you may have missed.

Value Play: Value stocks got popular earlier this month, as investors sold shares of higher growth technology stocks in favor of beaten-down energy and financial stocks. Read more

Dalio Outlook: Central banks are losing their ability to reverse an economic downturn as the global economy enters the late stages of the long-term debt cycle, according to Bridgewater Associates founder and billionaire Ray Dalio. Read More

Bubble Watch: Michael Burry of "The Big Short" fame says he sees another contrarian opportunity: the passive investment bubble. He tells Bloomberg that as money pours into ETFs that skew to big company stocks, smaller value stocks are being unduly neglected around the world. Read more

Berkshire Woes: Larry Swedroe, the chief research officer at Buckingham Family of Financial Services, says that while the current market may be crushing Berkshire Hathaway, it doesn't mean Warren Buffett has lost his touch. Read more

Recession Avoidance: Consumer sentiment is dropping and business activity is slowing but there are signs things could morph into a period of sluggish growth rather than going into an outright recession, according to The New York Times. Read more

Asia Debt: McKinsey & Co., the global consulting firm, said in a recent report that high levels of debt, lender vulnerabilities and shadow banking activities are warning signs of another potential debt crisis in Asia. Read more

Strong Will: AQR's Cliff Asness says there's no magic answer to the question of when value will make a comeback, and acknowledged in a recent article in Financial Review that an investment process requires sticking with a strategy through rough times. Read more

Gold Stars: Mark Mobius told Bloomberg TV that buying up gold will reap long-term growth as central banks loosen monetary policies and cryptocurrencies reinforce demand for hard assets. Read more

Insider Sales: TrimTabs data indicates corporate insider selling is picking up as doubts grow about the sustainability of the bull market, according to CNN. August was on track to be the fifth month this year with more than $10 billion worth of insider sales. Read more

Pension Play: The California Public Employees' Retirement System moved $150 billion to its new asset allocation strategy, according to Pensions & Investments. The new allocation includes 15% to a factor-weighted equity portfolio, 25% to a capitalization-weighted equity portfolio and 8% to private equity. Read more

Bank Buildup: While everyone worries about the possibility of a recession, Berkshire Hathaway is snapping up bank stocks, now among the five biggest investors in banks like JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs. It could be because they are bargains no one else is willing to buy right now. Read more

Market Timing: The average investor lost 45 basis points to timing over five 10-year periods ending in December 2018, according to Morningstar, which advises investors to make a good plan and have the willingness to stick by it through market volatility. Read more

Dividend Growth: Second quarter dividends hit a record but they are growing at a slower rate because of the strong U.S. dollar, according to the Janus Henderson Global Dividend Index. Growth is 1.1% compared to the 14% a year ago. Read more

Recession Triggers: The Washington Post recently wrote about the various signals that a recession is around the corner, and notes that the timing and severity of a downturn depends on the trigger. A slow decline may mean a less severe recession. A panic by businesses and consumers could make it worse. Read more

Value Culture: Senior portfolio managers from Tweedy, Browne Co. recently talked to Consuelo Mack about the culture of value investing. Tweedy was once the broker to both Benjamin Graham and Warren Buffett. Newfound data mining techniques and technology can't replace judgment in the decision-making process. Read more

Negative Rates: Mohamed El-Erian warned in a recent article in Chief Investment Officer that negative rates in the U.S. could be as harmful as political upheaval. Negative rates already exist in Europe and have held back economic advances in some places, he said. Read more

Amazon Pile-on: Berkshire Hathaway loaded up on Amazon during the second quarter, according to its regulatory filings. It raised its stake in the online retailer 11% after first getting into the stock in the first quarter. Read more

Quant Star: Institutional Investor recently profiled the $60 billion quant fund Two Sigma, which had early backing from Paul Tudor Jones. The firm, founded by computer scientist David Siegel and former D.E. Shaw manager John Overdeck, uses innovated technology and data science to uncover value. Read more

Investor Tips: Advisor Perspectives recently published some tips for investors to support their decision-making process: First, avoid constantly checking the portfolio. Second, ignore the media. Third, think like an investor, not a trader. Read more

Loss Avoidance: A recent study challenges the central premise of behavioral finance: that a person is inclined to avoid losses rather than accumulate gains. Bloomberg's Barry Ritholtz jumped to the defense of the old theory, however. Losses can feel permanent while gains can seem fleeting. Read more

Marks Outlook: Oaktree's Howard Marks told WSJ last month that the stock market valuations weren't "terribly high" and that investors should worry about the duration of the economic recovery. Read more


The Fallen

As we rebalance the Validea Hot List, 4 stocks leave our portfolio. These include: Napco Security Technologies Inc (NSSC), Simulations Plus, Inc. (SLP), Intelligent Systems Corporation (INS) and Medpace Holdings Inc (MEDP).

The Keepers

6 stocks remain in the portfolio. They are: D. R. Horton Inc (DHI), Skechers Usa Inc (SKX), Mastercard Inc (MA), Nk Lukoil Pao (Adr) (LUKOY), Onemain Holdings Inc (OMF) and Pennymac Financial Services Inc (PFSI).

The New Additions

We are adding 4 stocks to the portfolio. These include: Magna International Inc. (Usa) (MGA), Copart, Inc. (CPRT), Credit Acceptance Corp. (CACC) and Monster Beverage Corp (MNST).

Latest Changes

Additions  
MAGNA INTERNATIONAL INC. (USA) MGA
COPART, INC. CPRT
CREDIT ACCEPTANCE CORP. CACC
MONSTER BEVERAGE CORP MNST
Deletions  
NAPCO SECURITY TECHNOLOGIES INC NSSC
SIMULATIONS PLUS, INC. SLP
INTELLIGENT SYSTEMS CORPORATION INS
MEDPACE HOLDINGS INC MEDP

Why Return Skewness Offers Some Hope for Value Investors

Everyone knows value investing as a strategy has struggled during the last few years of this decade-old bull market. Growth-oriented technology stocks have played center-stage. The extended period of underperformance in value stocks has tested the patience of many value-oriented investors and has led some to abandon the approach entirely. It doesn't help that some prominent value-investors have made calls that the cycle is ending, and value is on its way back, only to be proven wrong, at least for the time being. Still, Validea's Jack Forehand has found some reasons for hope:

I won't be one of those people who tells you when value is going to turn because I think the historical evidence shows that doing so is impossible, but a look at the return profile of value strategies relative to the market does offer some reason for optimism that when things do turn, those who stayed the course will be rewarded.

You Have to Be In It to Win It

The returns of stocks in general are left skewed. What that means is that significant negative return events are more likely than significant positive ones. But the returns of value strategies relative to the market are typically positive skewed. That means that major outperforming days are more frequent than major underperforming days. When you invest in value strategies, being there for those big up days is a very important part of realizing their potential.

Let me give you some examples from the value strategies we run at Validea. If you are not familiar with our system, we build quantitative strategies based on the published writings of historically successful investors. We try to find every fundamental-based strategy we can that works over the long-term and we follow them and track their performance over time.

One of the models we follow is based on Ben Graham's book The Intelligent Investor. Our model based on Graham is essentially the definition of a deep value model. It only selects stocks that are very cheap. On top of that, we run very focused versions of it that hold ten to twenty stocks. So if you wanted to look at a very aggressive implementation of deep value investing, this model would be it. Because it is very aggressive, it can be used as a magnified example of the return profile of a deep value strategy.

Since its inception in 2003, our Graham model has outperformed the market by around 3% per year. But the road to get that outperformance has been a very rocky one filled with major positive and negative deviations from the return of the market.

Here are the strategy's best five months relative to the market since its inception in 2003.

And here are its five worst.

As you can see, this strategy has very high tracking error and can be far ahead and behind the S&P 500 in any given month, but the extreme outperforming ones exceed the extreme underperforming ones. This is the positive skewness I referred to before.

It is also important to note when some of the best months occurred. Many of them were centered around either the worst periods for the market in general or periods where value investing struggled. Two of the best months both occurred following the bear market bottom and they came in rapid succession. This strategy beat the market by over 30% in those two months alone. Two others occurred in 2017, coming off a bad relative period for value.

So as we sit through the very long period of underperformance for value we are going through now, it is important to recognize why staying the course during periods like this is so important to successfully implementing these strategies. Even if you had missed only a couple of the best performing months above out of the 193 total months in the sample , all of the strategy's outperformance would go away. And the fact that many of these best months came directly in the wake of some of the worst ones makes it even more important not to flinch when times are at their worst.

This focused model is obviously an extreme example of this, but the same principle holds for more diversified value models.

Below are the best five months for the DFA Small-Cap Value Fund relative to the S&P 500. The fund holds hundreds of stocks, so it is the complete other end of the spectrum from the focused portfolio above.

And here are the worst five.

The results show a much less extreme version of the same phenomenon. Its performance relative to the S&P 500 is positively skewed and the best months show more outperformance than the underperformance in the worst months.

Patience is a Prerequisite

So what does all of this mean? The right skewed distribution of value returns relative to the market is a double-edged sword for followers of the strategy. On one hand, it can lead to huge outperformance over a very short period of time. But on the other, it means that waiting through extended periods of underperformance will be required to get those returns. And many of the best returns come immediately following the darkest days, so trying to time the strategy is next to impossible.

The recent decade has been very difficult for anyone following a value investing strategy. But this data does offer some reason for optimism, because things can change for the better very quickly and sometimes when you least expect it. As is the case with pretty much everything in investing, conviction is the key to success.

Newcomers to the Hot List

Copart Inc. (CPRT) - This online vehicle auction site scores highly on the models tracking Dashan Huang, Warren Buffett, Peter Lynch and Pim van Pliet as well as on the Validea momentum investor model.

Credit Acceptance Corp. (CACC) - This auto finance firm scores highly on the models tracking Warren Buffett and Peter Lynch.

Magna International Inc. (MGA) - This auto supplier scores highly on several Validea models, including ones tracking James O'Shaughnessy, Tobias Carlisle, Peter Lynch and Kenneth Fisher.

Monster Beverage Corp. (MNST) - Shares of this soft drink maker score well on the models tracking Warren Buffett, Partha Mohanram and Peter Lynch.

News on Hot List Stocks

Skechers footwear was featured in seven shows at New York Fashion Week, including runway walks by celebrities Tinsley Mortimer and Kara Del Toro.


Portfolio Holdings
Ticker Date Added Return
LUKOY 4/5/2019 -6.2%
CPRT 9/20/2019 TBD
PFSI 8/23/2019 6.6%
MGA 9/20/2019 TBD
OMF 8/23/2019 -0.6%
MNST 9/20/2019 TBD
CACC 9/20/2019 TBD
DHI 8/23/2019 3.4%
SKX 8/23/2019 21.3%
MA 6/28/2019 4.3%


Guru Analysis
Disclaimer: The analysis is from Validea's selection and interpretation of content from the guru's book or published writings, and is not from nor endorsed by the guru. See Full Disclaimer

LUKOY  |   CPRT  |   PFSI  |   MGA  |   OMF  |   MNST  |   CACC  |   DHI  |   SKX  |   MA  |  

NK LUKOIL PAO (ADR)

Strategy: P/E/Growth Investor
Based on: Peter Lynch

NK Lukoil PAO is an energy company. The primary activities of LUKOIL and its subsidiaries are oil exploration, production, refining, marketing and distribution. Its segments include Exploration and Production; Refining, Marketing and Distribution, and Corporate and other. The Exploration and Production segment includes its exploration, development and production operations related to crude oil and gas. These activities are located within Russia, with additional activities in Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, the Middle East, Northern and Western Africa, Norway, Romania and Mexico. The Refining, Marketing and Distribution segment includes refining, petrochemical and transport operations, marketing and trading of crude oil, natural gas and refined products, generation, transportation and sales of electricity, heat and related services. The Corporate and other segment includes operations related to finance activities, production of diamonds and certain other activities.


DETERMINE THE CLASSIFICATION:

LUKOY is considered a "True Stalwart", according to this methodology, as its earnings growth of 15.36% lies within a moderate 10%-19% range and its annual sales of $130,152 million are greater than the multi billion dollar level. This methodology looks for the "Stalwart" securities to gain 30%-50% in value over a two year period if they can be purchased at an attractive price based on the P/E to Growth ratio. LUKOY is attractive if LUKOY can hold its own during a recession.


INVENTORY TO SALES: PASS

When inventories increase faster than sales, it is a red flag. However an increase of up to 5% is considered bearable if all other ratios appear attractive. Inventory to sales for LUKOY was 6.71% last year, while for this year it is 4.75%. Since inventory to sales has decreased from last year by -1.96%, LUKOY passes this test.


YIELD ADJUSTED P/E TO GROWTH (PEG) RATIO: PASS

The Yield-adjusted P/E/G ratio for LUKOY (0.28), based on the average of the 3, 4 and 5 year historical eps growth rates, is excellent.


EARNINGS PER SHARE: PASS

The EPS for a stalwart company must be positive. LUKOY's EPS ($14.95) would satisfy this criterion.


TOTAL DEBT/EQUITY RATIO: PASS

This methodology would consider the Debt/Equity ratio for LUKOY (16.04%) to be acceptable (equity is three to ten times debt). This ratio is one quick way to determine the financial strength of the company.


FREE CASH FLOW: NEUTRAL

The Free Cash Flow/Price ratio, though not a requirement, is considered a bonus if it is above 35%. A positive Cash Flow (the higher the better) separates a wonderfully reliable investment from a shaky one. This methodology prefers not to invest in companies that rely heavily on capital spending. This ratio for LUKOY (10.33%) is too low to add to the attractiveness of the stock. Keep in mind, however, that it does not adversely affect the company as it is a bonus criteria.


NET CASH POSITION: NEUTRAL

Another bonus for a company is having a Net Cash/Price ratio above 30%. Lynch defines net cash as cash and marketable securities minus long term debt. According to this methodology, a high value for this ratio dramatically cuts down on the risk of the security. The Net Cash/Price ratio for LUKOY (-13.79%) is too low to add to the attractiveness of this company. Keep in mind, however, that it does not adversely affect the company as it is a bonus criteria.


COPART, INC.

Strategy: P/E/Growth Investor
Based on: Peter Lynch

Copart, Inc. (Copart) is a provider of online auctions and vehicle remarketing services in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, the United Arab Emirates, Oman, Bahrain, Brazil, Ireland, Spain and India. The Company also provides vehicle remarketing services in Germany. The Company operates through two segments: United States and International. The Company provides vehicle sellers with a range of services to process and sell vehicles primarily over the Internet through its virtual bidding third generation Internet auction-style sales technology (VB3). The Company's service offerings include Online Seller Access, Salvage Estimation Services, Estimating Services, End-Of-Life Vehicle Processing, Virtual Insured Exchange (VIX), Transportation Services, Vehicle Inspection Stations, On-Demand Reporting, Department of Motor Vehicle (DMV) Processing, Flexible Vehicle Processing Programs, Buy It Now, Member Network, Sales Process, Copart Dealer Services, CashForCars.com and U-Pull-It.


DETERMINE THE CLASSIFICATION:

This methodology would consider CPRT a "fast-grower".


P/E/GROWTH RATIO: PASS

The investor should examine the P/E (33.28) relative to the growth rate (30.06%), based on the average of the 3, 4 and 5 year historical eps growth rates, for a company. This is a quick way of determining the fairness of the price. In this particular case, the P/E/G ratio for CPRT (1.11) is on the high side, but is acceptable if all the other tests are met.


SALES AND P/E RATIO: PASS

For companies with sales greater than $1 billion, this methodology likes to see that the P/E ratio remain below 40. Large companies can have a difficult time maintaining a growth high enough to support a P/E above this threshold. CPRT, whose sales are $2,042.0 million, needs to have a P/E below 40 to pass this criterion. CPRT's P/E of (33.28) is considered acceptable.


INVENTORY TO SALES: PASS

When inventories increase faster than sales, it is a red flag. However an increase of up to 5% is considered bearable if all other ratios appear attractive. Inventory to sales for CPRT was 0.93% last year, while for this year it is 1.03%. Since inventory to sales has not changed appreciably, CPRT passes this test.


EPS GROWTH RATE: PASS

This methodology favors companies that have several years of fast earnings growth, as these companies have a proven formula for growth that in many cases can continue many more years. This methodology likes to see earnings growth in the range of 20% to 50%, as earnings growth over 50% may be unsustainable. The EPS growth rate for CPRT is 30.1%, based on the average of the 3, 4 and 5 year historical eps growth rates, which is acceptable.


TOTAL DEBT/EQUITY RATIO: PASS

This methodology would consider the Debt/Equity ratio for CPRT (22.56%) to be acceptable (equity is three to ten times debt). This ratio is one quick way to determine the financial strength of the company.


FREE CASH FLOW: NEUTRAL

The Free Cash Flow/Price ratio, though not a requirement, is considered a bonus if it is above 35%. A positive Cash Flow (the higher the better) separates a wonderfully reliable investment from a shaky one. This methodology prefers not to invest in companies that rely heavily on capital spending. This ratio for CPRT (1.37%) is too low to add to the attractiveness of the stock. Keep in mind, however, that it does not adversely affect the company as it is a bonus criteria.


NET CASH POSITION: NEUTRAL

Another bonus for a company is having a Net Cash/Price ratio above 30%. Lynch defines net cash as cash and marketable securities minus long term debt. According to this methodology, a high value for this ratio dramatically cuts down on the risk of the security. The Net Cash/Price ratio for CPRT (-1.09%) is too low to add to the attractiveness of this company. Keep in mind, however, that it does not adversely affect the company as it is a bonus criteria.


PENNYMAC FINANCIAL SERVICES INC

Strategy: Small-Cap Growth Investor
Based on: Motley Fool

PennyMac Financial Services, Inc. is a specialty financial services firm. The Company conducts business in three segments: production, servicing (together, production and servicing comprise its mortgage banking activities) and investment management. Production segment performs mortgage loan origination, acquisition and sale activities. Servicing segment performs mortgage loan servicing for its own account and for others, including for PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust (PMT). Investment management segment represents its investment management activities, which include the activities associated with investment asset acquisitions and dispositions, such as sourcing, due diligence, negotiation and settlement; managing correspondent production activities for PMT; and managing the acquired investments for PMT. Its primary subsidiaries are: PNMAC Capital Management, LLC, PennyMac Loan Services, LLC and PNMAC Opportunity Fund Associates, LLC.


PROFIT MARGIN: PASS

This methodology seeks companies with a minimum trailing 12 month after tax profit margin of 7%. The companies that pass this criterion have strong positions within their respective industries and offer greater shareholder returns. A true test of the quality of a company is that they can sustain this margin. PFSI's profit margin of 13.82% passes this test.


RELATIVE STRENGTH: PASS

The investor must look at the relative strength of the company in question. Companies whose relative strength is 90 or above (that is, the company outperforms 90% or more of the market for the past year), are considered attractive. Companies whose price has been rising much quicker than the market tend to keep rising. PFSI, with a relative strength of 92, satisfies this test.


COMPARE SALES AND EPS GROWTH TO THE SAME PERIOD LAST YEAR: PASS

Companies must demonstrate both revenue and net income growth of at least 25% as compared to the prior year. These growth rates give you the dynamic companies that you are looking for. These rates for PFSI (31.43% for EPS, and 59.52% for Sales) are good enough to pass.


INSIDER HOLDINGS: PASS

PFSI's insiders should own at least 10% (they own 41.14% ) of the company's outstanding shares which is extremely attractive since the minimum requirement is 10%. A high percentage indicates that the insiders are confident that the company will do well.


CASH FLOW FROM OPERATIONS: PASS

A positive cash flow is typically used for internal expansion, acquisitions, dividend payments, etc. A company that generates rather than consumes cash is in much better shape to fund such activities on their own, rather than needing to borrow funds to do so. PFSI's free cash flow of $8.60 per share passes this test.


PROFIT MARGIN CONSISTENCY: PASS

PFSI's profit margin has been consistent or even increasing over the past three years (Current year: 6.42%, Last year: 7.24%, Two years ago: 4.85%), passing the requirement. It is a sign of good management and a healthy and competitive enterprise.


R&D AS A PERCENTAGE OF SALES: NEUTRAL

This criterion is not critically important for companies that are not high-tech or medical stocks because they are not as R&D dependant as companies within those sectors. Not much emphasis should be placed on this test in PFSI's case.


CASH AND CASH EQUIVALENTS: FAIL

PFSI does not have a sufficiently large amount of cash, $155.29 million, on hand relative to its size. Although this criteria does not apply to companies of this size, we defined anything greater than $500 million in cash as having 'a lot of cash' to allow analysis of these companies. PFSI will have more of a difficult time paying off debt (if it has any) or acquiring other companies than a company that passes this criterion.


ACCOUNT RECEIVABLE TO SALES: PASS

This methodology wants to make sure that a company's accounts receivable do not get significantly out of line with sales. It's a warning sign if a company's accounts receivable relative to sales increases significantly when compared to the previous year. Up to a 30% increase is allowed, but no more. Accounts Receivable to Sales for PFSI was 1.95% last year, while for this year it is 2.45%. Although the AR to sales is rising, it is below the max 30% that is allowed. The investor can still consider the stock if all other criteria appear very attractive.


"THE FOOL RATIO" (P/E TO GROWTH): PASS

The "Fool Ratio" is an extremely important aspect of this analysis. If the company has attractive fundamentals and its Fool Ratio is 0.5 or less (PFSI's is 0.24), the shares are looked upon favorably. These high quality companies can often wind up as the biggest winners. PFSI passes this test.

The following criteria for PFSI are less important which means you would place less emphasis on them when making your investment decision using this strategy:

AVERAGE SHARES OUTSTANDING: PASS

PFSI has not been significantly increasing the number of shares outstanding within recent years which is a good sign. PFSI currently has 79.0 million shares outstanding. This means the company is not taking any measures, with regards to the number of shares, that will dilute or devalue the stock.


SALES: FAIL

Companies with sales less than $500 million should be chosen. It is among these small-cap stocks that investors can find "an uncut gem", ones that institutions won't be able to buy yet. PFSI's sales of $1,649.7 million based on trailing 12 month sales, are too high and would therefore fail the test. It is companies with $500 million or less in sales that are most likely to double or triple in size in the next few years.


DAILY DOLLAR VOLUME: PASS

PFSI passes the Daily Dollar Volume (DDV of $10.3 million) test. It is required that this number be less than $25 million because these are the stocks that remain relatively undiscovered by institutions. "You'll be scoring touchdowns against the big guys on your turf."


PRICE: PASS

This is a very insignificant criterion for this methodology. But basically, low prices are chosen because "small numbers multiply more rapidly than large ones" and the potential for big returns expands. PFSI with a price of $30.39 passes the price test, even though it doesn't fall in the preferred range. The price should be above $7 in order to eliminate penny stocks and below $20 since most stocks in this price range are undiscovered by the institutions.


INCOME TAX PERCENTAGE: FAIL

PFSI's income tax paid expressed as a percentage of pretax income either this year (8.69%) or last year (11.34%) is below 20% which is cause for concern. Because the tax rate is below 20% this could mean that the earnings that were reported are unrealistically inflated due to the lower level of income tax paid. However, we have utilized a sophisticated formula so that the appropriate figures reflect a 'normal' tax rate (35%).


MAGNA INTERNATIONAL INC. (USA)

Strategy: Growth/Value Investor
Based on: James P. O'Shaughnessy

Magna International Inc. (Magna) is a global automotive supplier. The Company's segments are North America, Europe, Asia, Rest of World, and Corporate and Other. The Company's product capabilities include producing body, chassis, exterior, seating, powertrain, electronic, active driver assistance, vision, closure, and roof systems and modules, as well as vehicle engineering and contract manufacturing. The Company has over 320 manufacturing operations and approximately 100 product development, engineering and sales centers in over 30 countries. It provides a range of body, chassis and engineering solutions to its original equipment manufacturer (OEM) customers. It has capabilities in powertrain design, development, testing and manufacturing. It offers bumper fascia systems, exterior trim and modular systems. It offers exterior and interior mirror systems. It offers sealing, trim, engineered glass and module systems. It offers softtops, retractable hardtops, modular tops and hardtops.


MARKET CAP: PASS

The first requirement of the Cornerstone Growth Strategy is that the company has a market capitalization of at least $150 million. This will screen out the companies that are too illiquid for most investors, but still include a small growth company. MGA, with a market cap of $16,659 million, passes this criterion.


EARNINGS PER SHARE PERSISTENCE: PASS

The Cornerstone Growth methodology looks for companies that show persistent earnings growth without regard to magnitude. To fulfill this requirement, a company's earnings must increase each year for a five year period. MGA, whose annual EPS before extraordinary items for the last 5 years (from earliest to the most recent fiscal year) were 4.44, 4.72, 5.16, 5.81 and 6.64, passes this test.


PRICE/SALES RATIO: PASS

The Price/Sales ratio should be below 1.5. This value criterion, coupled with the growth criterion, identify growth stocks that are still cheap to buy. MGA's Price/Sales ratio of 0.41, based on trailing 12 month sales, passes this criterion.


RELATIVE STRENGTH: FAIL

The final criterion for the Cornerstone Growth Strategy requires that the Relative Strength of the company be among the top 50 of the stocks screened using the previous criterion. This gives you the opportunity to buy the growth stocks you are searching for just as the market is embracing them. MGA has a relative strength of 61. This does not pass the final criterion. As a result, this methodology would not consider the stock even though it passed the previous three criteria.


ONEMAIN HOLDINGS INC

Strategy: P/E/Growth Investor
Based on: Peter Lynch

OneMain Holdings, Inc. is a financial services holding company. The Company is a consumer finance company, which is engaged in providing personal loan products; credit and non-credit insurance, and service loans owned by it and service or subservice loans owned by third-parties. The Company's segments include Consumer and Insurance; Acquisitions and Servicing; Real Estate, and Other. It is engaged in pursuing strategic acquisitions and dispositions of assets and businesses, including loan portfolios or other financial assets. The Company originates and services personal loans (secured and unsecured) through two business divisions: branch operations and centralized operations. As of December 31, 2016, its combined branch operations included over 1,800 branch offices in 44 states. It offers optional credit insurance products to its customers, including credit life insurance, credit disability insurance, credit involuntary unemployment insurance and collateral protection insurance.


DETERMINE THE CLASSIFICATION:

This methodology would consider OMF a "fast-grower".


P/E/GROWTH RATIO: PASS

The investor should examine the P/E (7.80) relative to the growth rate (31.71%), based on the average of the 3 and 5 year historical eps growth rates using the current fiscal year eps estimate, for a company. This is a quick way of determining the fairness of the price. In this particular case, the P/E/G ratio for OMF (0.25) is very favorable.


SALES AND P/E RATIO: PASS

For companies with sales greater than $1 billion, this methodology likes to see that the P/E ratio remain below 40. Large companies can have a difficult time maintaining a growth high enough to support a P/E above this threshold. OMF, whose sales are $4,481.0 million, needs to have a P/E below 40 to pass this criterion. OMF's P/E of (7.80) is considered acceptable.


EPS GROWTH RATE: PASS

This methodology favors companies that have several years of fast earnings growth, as these companies have a proven formula for growth that in many cases can continue many more years. This methodology likes to see earnings growth in the range of 20% to 50%, as earnings growth over 50% may be unsustainable. The EPS growth rate for OMF is 31.7%, based on the average of the 3 and 5 year historical eps growth rates using the current fiscal year eps estimate, which is acceptable.


TOTAL DEBT/EQUITY RATIO: NEUTRAL

OMF is a financial company so debt to equity rules are not applied to determine the company's financial soundness.


EQUITY/ASSETS RATIO: PASS

This methodology uses the Equity/Assets Ratio as a way to determine a financial intermediary's health, as it is a better measure than the Debt/Equity Ratio. OMF's Equity/Assets ratio (20.00%) is extremely healthy and above the minimum 5% this methodology looks for, thus passing the criterion.


RETURN ON ASSETS: PASS

This methodology uses Return on Assets as a way to measure a financial intermediary's profitability. OMF's ROA (3.26%) is above the minimum 1% that this methodology looks for, thus passing the criterion.


FREE CASH FLOW: BONUS PASS

The Free Cash Flow/Price ratio, though not a requirement, is considered a bonus if it above 35%. A positive Cash Flow (the higher the better) separates a wonderfully reliable investment from a shaky one. This methodology prefers not to invest in companies that rely heavily on capital spending. This ratio for OMF (39.68%) is high enough to add to the attractiveness of the stock.


NET CASH POSITION: NEUTRAL

Another bonus for a company is having a Net Cash/Price ratio above 30%. Lynch defines net cash as cash and marketable securities minus long term debt. According to this methodology, a high value for this ratio dramatically cuts down on the risk of the security. The Net Cash/Price ratio for OMF (-288.53%) is too low to add to the attractiveness of this company. Keep in mind, however, that it does not adversely affect the company as it is a bonus criteria.


MONSTER BEVERAGE CORP

Strategy: Patient Investor
Based on: Warren Buffett

Monster Beverage Corporation develops, markets, sells and distributes energy drink beverages, sodas and/or concentrates for energy drink beverages, primarily under various brand names, including Monster Energy, Monster Rehab, Monster Energy Extra Strength Nitrous Technology, Java Monster, Muscle Monster, Mega Monster Energy, Punch Monster, Juice Monster, Ubermonster, BU, Mutant Super Soda, Nalu, NOS, Burn, Mother, Ultra, Play and Power Play, Gladiator, Relentless, Samurai, BPM and Full Throttle. The Company has three segments: Monster Energy Drinks segment, which consists of its Monster Energy drinks, as well as Mutant Super Soda drinks; Strategic Brands segment, which includes various energy drink brands owned through The Coca-Cola Company (TCCC), and Other segment (Other), which includes the American Fruits & Flavors (AFF) third-party products. The Strategic Brands segment sells concentrates and/or beverage bases to authorized bottling and canning operations.

STAGE 1: "Is this a Buffett type company?"

A bedrock principle for Buffett is that his type of company has a "durable competitive advantage" as compared to being a "price competitive" or "commodity" type of business. Companies with a "durable competitive advantage" are more likely to be found in these sub-industries: Brand Name Fast Food Restaurants, Brand Name Beverages, Brand Name Foods, Brand Name Toiletries and Household Products, Brand Name Clothing, Brand Name Prescription Drugs, Advertising, Advertising Agencies, TV, Newspapers, Magazines, Direct Mail, Repetitive Services for Businesses, Low Cost Producers of Insurance, furniture, or Low Cost Retailers. While you should be easily able to explain where the company's pricing power comes from (i.e. a strong regional brand image, a business tollgate, its main products are #1 or # 2 in its field and has been on the market for years and hasn't changed at all, a consumer or business ends up buying the same product many times in a year, etc. or having the lowest production cost among its competition), there are certain figures that one can look at that can qualify the company as having a durable competitive advantage.


LOOK FOR EARNINGS PREDICTABILITY: PASS

Buffett likes companies to have solid, stable earnings that are continually expanding. This allows him to accurately predict future earnings. Annual earnings per share from earliest to most recent were 0.37, 0.38, 0.51, 0.62, 0.65, 0.92, 0.95, 1.19, 1.50, 1.76. Buffett would consider MNST's earnings predictable. In fact EPS have increased every year. MNST's long term historical EPS growth rate is 20.7%, based on the average of the 3, 4 and 5 year historical eps growth rates, and it is expected to grow earnings 11.8% per year in the future, based on the analysts' consensus estimated long term growth rate. For the purposes of our analysis, we will use the more conservative of the two EPS growth numbers.


LOOK AT THE ABILITY TO PAY OFF DEBT PASS

Buffett likes companies that are conservatively financed. Nonetheless, he has invested in companies with large financing divisions and in firms with rather high levels of debt. MNST has no long term debt and therefore would pass this criterion.


LOOK FOR CONSISTENTLY HIGHER THAN AVERAGE RETURN ON EQUITY: PASS

Buffett likes companies with above average return on equity of at least 15% or better, as this is an indicator that the company has a durable competitive advantage. US corporations have, on average, returned about 12% on equity over the last 30 years. The average ROE for MNST, over the last ten years, is 27.7%, which is high enough to pass. It is not enough that the average be at least 15%. For each of the last 10 years, with the possible exception of the last fiscal year, the ROE must be at least 10% for Buffett to feel comfortable that the ROE is consistent. In addition, the average ROE over the last 3 years must also exceed 15%. The ROE for the last 10 years, from earliest to latest, is 33.3%, 24.5%, 27.3%, 47.8%, 32.8%, 30.7%, 12.0%, 20.2%, 21.7%, 26.5%, and the average ROE over the last 3 years is 22.8%, thus passing this criterion.


LOOK FOR CONSISTENTLY HIGHER THAN AVERAGE RETURN ON TOTAL CAPITAL: PASS

Because some companies can be financed with debt that is many times their equity, they can show a consistently high ROE, yet still be in unattractive price competitive businesses. To screen this out, for non-financial companies Buffett also requires that the average Return On Total Capital (ROTC) be at least 12% and consistent. In addition, the average ROTC over the last 3 years must also exceed 12%. Return On Total Capital is defined as the net earnings of the business divided by the total capital in the business, both equity and debt. The average ROTC for MNST, over the last ten years, is 27.7% and the average ROTC over the past 3 years is 22.8%, which is high enough to pass. It is not enough that the average be at least 12%. For each of the last 10 years, with the possible exception of the last fiscal year, the ROTC must be at least 9% for Buffett to feel comfortable that the ROTC is consistent. The ROTC for the last 10 years, from earliest to latest, is 33.3%, 24.5%, 27.3%, 47.8%, 32.8%, 30.7%, 12.0%, 20.2%, 21.7%, 26.5%, thus passing this criterion.


LOOK AT CAPITAL EXPENDITURES: PASS

Buffett likes companies that do not have major capital expenditures. That is, he looks for companies that do not need to spend a ton of money on major upgrades of plant and equipment or on research and development to stay competitive. MNST's free cash flow per share of $1.95 is positive, indicating that the company is generating more cash than it is consuming. This is a favorable sign, and so the company passes this criterion.


LOOK AT MANAGEMENT'S USE OF RETAINED EARNINGS: PASS

Buffett likes to see if management has spent retained earnings in a way that benefits shareholders. To figure this out, Buffett takes the total amount of retained earnings over the previous ten years of $8.85 and compares it to the gain in EPS over the same period of $1.39. MNST's management has proven it can earn shareholders a 15.7% return on the earnings they kept. This return is more than acceptable to Buffett. Essentially, management is doing a great job putting the retained earnings to work.


HAS THE COMPANY BEEN BUYING BACK SHARES: BONUS PASS

Buffett likes to see falling shares outstanding, which indicates that the company has been repurchasing shares. This indicates that management has been using excess capital to increase shareholder value. MNST's shares outstanding have fallen over the past three years from 566,570,007 to 548,000,000, thus passing this criterion. This is a bonus criterion and will not adversely affect the ability of a stock to pass the strategy as a whole if it is failed.

The preceding concludes Buffett's qualitative analysis. If and when he gets positive responses to all the above criteria, he would then proceed with a price analysis. The price analysis will determine whether or not the stock should be bought. The following is how he would evaluate MNST quantitatively.

STAGE 2: "Should I buy at this price?" Although a firm may be a Buffett type company, he won't invest in it unless he can get a favorable price that allows him a great long term return.


CALCULATE THE INITIAL RATE OF RETURN: [No Pass/Fail]

Buffett compares his type of stocks to bonds, and likes to see what a company's initial rate of return is. To calculate the initial rate of return, take the trailing 12-month EPS of $1.92 and divide it by the current market price of $58.79. An investor, purchasing MNST, could expect to receive a 3.27% initial rate of return. Furthermore, he or she could expect the rate to increase 11.8% per year, based on the analysts' consensus estimated long term growth rate, as this is how fast earnings are growing.


COMPARE THE INITIAL RATE OF RETURN WITH THE LONG-TERM TREASURY YIELD: PASS

Buffett favors companies in which the initial rate of return is around the long-term treasury yield. Nonetheless, he has invested in companies with low initial rates of return, as long as the yield is expected to expand rapidly. Currently, the long-term treasury yield is about 2.00%. Compare this with MNST's initial yield of 3.27%, which will expand at an annual rate of 11.8%, based on the analysts' consensus estimated long term growth rate. The company is the better choice, as the initial rate of return is close to or above the long term bond yield and is expanding.


CALCULATE THE FUTURE EPS: [No Pass/Fail]

MNST currently has a book value of $7.45. It is safe to say that if MNST can preserve its average rate of return on equity of 22.8% and continues to retain 100.00% of its earnings, it will be able to sustain an earnings growth rate of 22.8% and it will have a book value of $58.23 in ten years. If it can still earn 22.8% on equity in ten years, then expected EPS will be $13.29.


CALCULATE THE FUTURE STOCK PRICE BASED ON THE AVERAGE ROE METHOD: [No Pass/Fail]

Now take the expected future EPS of $13.29 and multiply them by the lower of the 5 year average P/E ratio (38.4) or current P/E ratio (current P/E in this case), which is 30.6 and you get MNST's projected future stock price of $406.74.


CALCULATE THE EXPECTED RATE OF RETURN BASED ON THE AVERAGE ROE METHOD: [No Pass/Fail]

Now add in the total expected dividend pool to be paid over the next ten years, which is $0.00. This gives you a total dollar amount of $406.74. These numbers indicate that one could expect to make a 21.3% average annual return on MNST's stock at the present time. Buffett would consider this a great return.


CALCULATE THE EXPECTED FUTURE STOCK PRICE BASED ON AVERAGE EPS GROWTH: [No Pass/Fail]

If you take the EPS growth of 11.8%, based on the analysts' consensus estimated long term growth rate, you can project EPS in ten years to be $5.86. Now multiply EPS in 10 years by the lower of the 5 year average P/E ratio (38.4) or current P/E ratio (current P/E in this case), which is 30.6. This equals the future stock price of $179.40. Add in the total expected dividend pool of $0.00 to get a total dollar amount of $179.40.


CALCULATE THE EXPECTED RETURN USING THE AVERAGE EPS GROWTH METHOD: [No Pass/Fail]

Now you can figure out your expected return based on a current price of $58.79 and the future expected stock price, including the dividend pool, of $179.40. If you were to invest in MNST at this time, you could expect a 11.80% average annual return on your money. Buffett likes to see a 15% return, and would even go down to 12%.


LOOK AT THE RANGE OF EXPECTED RATE OF RETURN: PASS

Based on the two different methods, you could expect an annual compounding rate of return somewhere between 11.8% and 21.3%. To pinpoint the average return a little better, we have taken an average of the two different methods. Investors could expect an average return of 16.6% on MNST stock for the next ten years, based on the current fundamentals. Buffett would consider this a great return, thus passing the criterion.


CREDIT ACCEPTANCE CORP.

Strategy: Growth Investor
Based on: Martin Zweig

Credit Acceptance Corporation offers financing programs that enable automobile dealers to sell vehicles to consumers. The Company's financing programs are offered through a network of automobile dealers. The Company has two Dealers financing programs: the Portfolio Program and the Purchase Program. Under the Portfolio Program, the Company advances money to dealers (Dealer Loan) in exchange for the right to service the underlying consumer loans. Under the Purchase Program, the Company buys the consumer loans from the dealers (Purchased Loan) and keeps the amounts collected from the consumer. Dealer Loans and Purchased Loans are collectively referred to as Loans. As of December 31, 2016, the Company's target market included approximately 60,000 independent and franchised automobile dealers in the United States. The Company has market area managers located throughout the United States that market its programs to dealers, enroll new dealers and support active dealers.


P/E RATIO: PASS

The P/E of a company must be greater than 5 to eliminate weak companies, but not more than 3 times the current Market P/E because the situation is much too risky, and never greater than 43. CACC's P/E is 14.96, based on trailing 12 month earnings, while the current market PE is 18.00. Therefore, it passes the first test.


REVENUE GROWTH IN RELATION TO EPS GROWTH: FAIL

Revenue Growth must not be substantially less than earnings growth. For earnings to continue to grow over time they must be supported by a comparable or better sales growth rate and not just by cost cutting or other non-sales measures. CACC's revenue growth is 14.91%, while it's earnings growth rate is 24.99%, based on the average of the 3, 4 and 5 year historical eps growth rates. Therefore, CACC fails this criterion.


SALES GROWTH RATE: FAIL

Another important issue regarding sales growth is that the rate of quarterly sales growth is rising. To evaluate this, the change from this quarter last year to the present quarter (17.5%) must be examined, and then compared to the previous quarter last year compared to the previous quarter (19.7%) of the current year. Sales growth for the prior must be greater than the latter. For CACC this criterion has not been met and fails this test.


The earnings numbers of a company should be examined from various different angles. Three of these angles are stability in the trend of earnings, earnings persistence, and earnings acceleration. To evaluate stability, the stock has to pass the following four criteria.


CURRENT QUARTER EARNINGS: PASS

The first of these criteria is that the current EPS be positive. CACC's EPS ($8.68) pass this test.


QUARTERLY EARNINGS ONE YEAR AGO: PASS

The EPS for the quarter one year ago must be positive. CACC's EPS for this quarter last year ($7.76) pass this test.


POSITIVE EARNINGS GROWTH RATE FOR CURRENT QUARTER: PASS

The growth rate of the current quarter's earnings compared to the same quarter a year ago must also be positive. CACC's growth rate of 11.86% passes this test.


EARNINGS GROWTH RATE FOR THE PAST SEVERAL QUARTERS: FAIL

Compare the earnings growth rate of the previous three quarters with long-term EPS growth rate. Earnings growth in the previous 3 quarters should be at least half of the long-term EPS growth rate. Half of the long-term EPS growth rate for CACC is 12.49%. This should be less than the growth rates for the 3 previous quarters which are 49.33%, -45.44% and 40.19%. CACC does not pass this test, which means that it does not have good, reasonably steady earnings.


This strategy looks at the rate which earnings grow and evaluates this rate of growth from different angles. The 4 tests immediately following are detailed below.


EPS GROWTH FOR CURRENT QUARTER MUST BE GREATER THAN PRIOR 3 QUARTERS: PASS

If the growth rate of the prior three quarter's earnings, -5.41%, (versus the same three quarters a year earlier) is less than the growth rate of the current quarter earnings, 11.86%, (versus the same quarter one year ago) then the stock passes.


EPS GROWTH FOR CURRENT QUARTER MUST BE GREATER THAN THE HISTORICAL GROWTH RATE: FAIL

The EPS growth rate for the current quarter, 11.86% must be greater than or equal to the historical growth which is 24.99%. Since this is not the case CACC would therefore fail this test.


EARNINGS PERSISTENCE: PASS

Companies must show persistent yearly earnings growth. To fulfill this requirement a company's earnings must increase each year for a five year period. CACC, whose annual EPS growth before extraordinary items for the previous 5 years (from the earliest to the most recent fiscal year) were 11.92, 14.28, 16.31, 29.14 and 29.39, passes this test.


LONG-TERM EPS GROWTH: PASS

One final earnings test required is that the long-term earnings growth rate must be at least 15% per year. CACC's long-term growth rate of 24.99%, based on the average of the 3, 4 and 5 year historical eps growth rates, passes this test.


INSIDER TRANSACTIONS: PASS

A factor that adds to a stock's attractiveness is if insider buy transactions number 3 or more, while insider sell transactions are zero. Zweig calls this an insider buy signal. For CACC, this criterion has not been met (insider sell transactions are 1, while insiders buying number 2). Despite the lack of an insider buy signal, there also is not an insider sell signal, so the stock passes this criterion.


D. R. HORTON INC

Strategy: Growth Investor
Based on: Martin Zweig

D.R. Horton, Inc. is a homebuilding company. The Company has operations in 84 markets in 29 states across the United States. The Company's segments include its 44 homebuilding divisions, its financial services operations and its other business activities. In the homebuilding segment, the Company builds and sells single-family detached homes and attached homes, such as town homes, duplexes, triplexes and condominiums. The Company's 44 homebuilding divisions are aggregated into six segments: East Region, South Central Region, Midwest Region, West Region, Southwest Region and Southeast Region. In the financial services segment, the Company sells mortgages and collects fees for title insurance agency and closing services. The Company has subsidiaries that conduct insurance-related operations; construct and own income-producing rental properties; own non-residential real estate, including ranch land and improvements, and own and operate oil and gas-related assets.


P/E RATIO: PASS

The P/E of a company must be greater than 5 to eliminate weak companies, but not more than 3 times the current Market P/E because the situation is much too risky, and never greater than 43. DHI's P/E is 12.22, based on trailing 12 month earnings, while the current market PE is 18.00. Therefore, it passes the first test.


REVENUE GROWTH IN RELATION TO EPS GROWTH: FAIL

Revenue Growth must not be substantially less than earnings growth. For earnings to continue to grow over time they must be supported by a comparable or better sales growth rate and not just by cost cutting or other non-sales measures. DHI's revenue growth is 17.87%, while it's earnings growth rate is 27.24%, based on the average of the 3, 4 and 5 year historical eps growth rates. Therefore, DHI fails this criterion.


SALES GROWTH RATE: PASS

Another important issue regarding sales growth is that the rate of quarterly sales growth is rising. To evaluate this, the change from this quarter last year to the present quarter (10.6%) must be examined, and then compared to the previous quarter last year compared to the previous quarter (8.8%) of the current year. Sales growth for the prior must be greater than the latter. For DHI this criterion has been met.


The earnings numbers of a company should be examined from various different angles. Three of these angles are stability in the trend of earnings, earnings persistence, and earnings acceleration. To evaluate stability, the stock has to pass the following four criteria.


CURRENT QUARTER EARNINGS: PASS

The first of these criteria is that the current EPS be positive. DHI's EPS ($1.26) pass this test.


QUARTERLY EARNINGS ONE YEAR AGO: PASS

The EPS for the quarter one year ago must be positive. DHI's EPS for this quarter last year ($1.18) pass this test.


POSITIVE EARNINGS GROWTH RATE FOR CURRENT QUARTER: PASS

The growth rate of the current quarter's earnings compared to the same quarter a year ago must also be positive. DHI's growth rate of 6.78% passes this test.


EARNINGS GROWTH RATE FOR THE PAST SEVERAL QUARTERS: FAIL

Compare the earnings growth rate of the previous three quarters with long-term EPS growth rate. Earnings growth in the previous 3 quarters should be at least half of the long-term EPS growth rate. Half of the long-term EPS growth rate for DHI is 13.62%. This should be less than the growth rates for the 3 previous quarters which are 48.78%, -2.56% and 2.20%. DHI does not pass this test, which means that it does not have good, reasonably steady earnings.


This strategy looks at the rate which earnings grow and evaluates this rate of growth from different angles. The 4 tests immediately following are detailed below.


EPS GROWTH FOR CURRENT QUARTER MUST BE GREATER THAN PRIOR 3 QUARTERS: FAIL

If the growth rate of the prior three quarter's earnings, 15.94%, (versus the same three quarters a year earlier) is greater than the growth rate of the current quarter earnings, 6.78%, (versus the same quarter one year ago) then the stock fails, with one exception: if the growth rate in earnings between the current quarter and the same quarter one year ago is greater than 30%, then the stock would pass. The growth rate over this period for DHI is 6.8%, and it would therefore fail this test.


EPS GROWTH FOR CURRENT QUARTER MUST BE GREATER THAN THE HISTORICAL GROWTH RATE: FAIL

The EPS growth rate for the current quarter, 6.78% must be greater than or equal to the historical growth which is 27.24%. Since this is not the case DHI would therefore fail this test.


EARNINGS PERSISTENCE: PASS

Companies must show persistent yearly earnings growth. To fulfill this requirement a company's earnings must increase each year for a five year period. DHI, whose annual EPS growth before extraordinary items for the previous 5 years (from the earliest to the most recent fiscal year) were 1.46, 2.03, 2.36, 2.74 and 4.09, passes this test.


LONG-TERM EPS GROWTH: PASS

One final earnings test required is that the long-term earnings growth rate must be at least 15% per year. DHI's long-term growth rate of 27.24%, based on the average of the 3, 4 and 5 year historical eps growth rates, passes this test.


TOTAL DEBT/EQUITY RATIO: PASS

A final criterion is that a company must not have a high level of debt. A high level of total debt, due to high interest expenses, can have a very negative effect on earnings if business moderately turns down. If a company does have a high level, an investor may want to avoid this stock altogether. DHI's Debt/Equity (35.79%) is not considered high relative to its industry (52.13%) and passes this test.


INSIDER TRANSACTIONS: PASS

A factor that adds to a stock's attractiveness is if insider buy transactions number 3 or more, while insider sell transactions are zero. Zweig calls this an insider buy signal. For DHI, this criterion has not been met (insider sell transactions are 4, while insiders buying number 2). Despite the fact that insider sells out number insider buys for this company, Zweig considers even one insider buy transaction enough to prevent an insider sell signal, therefore there is not an insider sell signal and the stock passes this criterion.


SKECHERS USA INC

Strategy: Value Investor
Based on: Benjamin Graham

Skechers U.S.A., Inc. is a designer and marketer of Skechers-branded lifestyle footwear for men, women and children, and performance footwear for men and women under the Skechers Performance brand name. It also offers apparel, accessories, eyewear, scrubs and other merchandise. It sells its footwear in department, specialty and independent stores, as well as through its Skechers retail stores and online at skechers.com. The Company operates through three segments: domestic wholesale sales, international wholesale sales, and retail sales, which includes e-commerce sales. Its lifestyle brands include Skechers USA, Skechers Sport, and Skechers Active and Skechers Sport Active. Its Performance Brands include Skechers Performance, Skechers Kids and Skechers Work. As of December 31, 2017, the Company's products are available in over 170 countries and territories through its network of subsidiaries in Asia, Europe, Canada, Central America and South America.


SECTOR: PASS

SKX is neither a technology nor financial Company, and therefore this methodology is applicable.


SALES: PASS

The investor must select companies of "adequate size". This includes companies with annual sales greater than $1 billion. SKX's sales of $4,792.5 million, based on trailing 12 month sales, pass this test.


CURRENT RATIO: PASS

The current ratio must be greater than or equal to 2. Companies that meet this criterion are typically financially secure and defensive. SKX's current ratio of 2.51 passes the test.


LONG-TERM DEBT IN RELATION TO NET CURRENT ASSETS: PASS

For industrial companies, long-term debt must not exceed net current assets (current assets minus current liabilities). Companies that meet this criterion display one of the attributes of a financially secure organization. The long-term debt for SKX is $100.0 million, while the net current assets are $1,498.0 million. SKX passes this test.


LONG-TERM EPS GROWTH: PASS

Companies must increase their EPS by at least 30% over a ten-year period and EPS must not have been negative for any year within the last 10 years. Companies with this type of growth tend to be financially secure and have proven themselves over time. SKX's EPS growth over that period of 204.1% passes the EPS growth test.


P/E RATIO: FAIL

The Price/Earnings (P/E) ratio, based on the greater of the current PE or the PE using average earnings over the last 3 fiscal years, must be "moderate", which this methodology states is not greater than 15. Stocks with moderate P/Es are more defensive by nature. SKX's P/E of 17.18 (using the current PE) fails this test.


PRICE/BOOK RATIO: FAIL

The Price/Book ratio must also be reasonable. That is, the Price/Book multiplied by P/E cannot be greater than 22. SKX's Price/Book ratio is 2.55, while the P/E is 17.18. SKX fails the Price/Book test.


MASTERCARD INC

Strategy: Patient Investor
Based on: Warren Buffett

MasterCard Incorporated is a technology company that connects consumers, financial institutions, merchants, governments and businesses across the world, enabling them to use electronic forms of payment. The Company operates through Payment Solutions segment. The Company allows user to make payments by creating a range of payment solutions and services using its brands, which include MasterCard, Maestro and Cirrus. The Company provides a range of products and solutions that support payment products, which customers can offer to their cardholders. The Company's services facilitate transactions on its network among cardholders, merchants, financial institutions and governments. The Company's products include consumer credit and charge, commercial, debit, prepaid, commercial and digital. The Company's consumer credit and charge offers a range of programs that enables issuers to provide consumers with cards allowing users to defer payment.

STAGE 1: "Is this a Buffett type company?"

A bedrock principle for Buffett is that his type of company has a "durable competitive advantage" as compared to being a "price competitive" or "commodity" type of business. Companies with a "durable competitive advantage" are more likely to be found in these sub-industries: Brand Name Fast Food Restaurants, Brand Name Beverages, Brand Name Foods, Brand Name Toiletries and Household Products, Brand Name Clothing, Brand Name Prescription Drugs, Advertising, Advertising Agencies, TV, Newspapers, Magazines, Direct Mail, Repetitive Services for Businesses, Low Cost Producers of Insurance, furniture, or Low Cost Retailers. While you should be easily able to explain where the company's pricing power comes from (i.e. a strong regional brand image, a business tollgate, its main products are #1 or # 2 in its field and has been on the market for years and hasn't changed at all, a consumer or business ends up buying the same product many times in a year, etc. or having the lowest production cost among its competition), there are certain figures that one can look at that can qualify the company as having a durable competitive advantage.


LOOK FOR EARNINGS PREDICTABILITY: PASS

Buffett likes companies to have solid, stable earnings that are continually expanding. This allows him to accurately predict future earnings. Annual earnings per share from earliest to most recent were 1.12, 1.41, 1.48, 2.19, 2.56, 3.09, 3.35, 3.69, 4.47, 5.52. Buffett would consider MA's earnings predictable. In fact EPS have increased every year. MA's long term historical EPS growth rate is 16.7%, based on the average of the 3, 4 and 5 year historical eps growth rates.


LOOK FOR CONSISTENTLY HIGHER THAN AVERAGE RETURN ON EQUITY: PASS

Buffett likes companies with above average return on equity of at least 15% or better, as this is an indicator that the company has a durable competitive advantage. US corporations have, on average, returned about 12% on equity over the last 30 years. The average ROE for MA, over the last ten years, is 54.6%, which is high enough to pass. It is not enough that the average be at least 15%. For each of the last 10 years, with the possible exception of the last fiscal year, the ROE must be at least 10% for Buffett to feel comfortable that the ROE is consistent. In addition, the average ROE over the last 3 years must also exceed 15%. The ROE for the last 10 years, from earliest to latest, is 35.0%, 33.2%, 30.8%, 37.5%, 39.4%, 50.8%, 60.8%, 69.2%, 84.9%, 104.3%, and the average ROE over the last 3 years is 86.2%, thus passing this criterion.


LOOK FOR CONSISTENTLY HIGHER THAN AVERAGE RETURN ON ASSETS: PASS

Buffett also requires, for financial companies, that the average Return On Assets (ROA) be at least 1% and consistent. Return On Assets is defined as the net earnings of the business divided by the total assets of the business. The average ROA for MA, over the last ten years, is 20.5%, which is high enough to pass. It is not enough that the average be at least 1%. For each of the last 10 years, with the possible exception of the last fiscal year, the ROA must be at least 1% for Buffett to feel comfortable that the ROA is consistent. The ROA for the last 10 years, from earliest to latest, is 16.4%, 19.5%, 16.9%, 20.8%, 20.7%, 22.5%, 22.6%, 21.0%, 21.8%, 22.6%, thus passing this criterion.


LOOK AT CAPITAL EXPENDITURES: PASS

Buffett likes companies that do not have major capital expenditures. That is, he looks for companies that do not need to spend a ton of money on major upgrades of plant and equipment or on research and development to stay competitive. MA's free cash flow per share of $4.46 is positive, indicating that the company is generating more cash than it is consuming. This is a favorable sign, and so the company passes this criterion.


LOOK AT MANAGEMENT'S USE OF RETAINED EARNINGS: PASS

Buffett likes to see if management has spent retained earnings in a way that benefits shareholders. To figure this out, Buffett takes the total amount of retained earnings over the previous ten years of $24.50 and compares it to the gain in EPS over the same period of $4.40. MA's management has proven it can earn shareholders a 18.0% return on the earnings they kept. This return is more than acceptable to Buffett. Essentially, management is doing a great job putting the retained earnings to work.


HAS THE COMPANY BEEN BUYING BACK SHARES: BONUS PASS

Buffett likes to see falling shares outstanding, which indicates that the company has been repurchasing shares. This indicates that management has been using excess capital to increase shareholder value. MA's shares outstanding have fallen over the past five years from 1,115,369,995 to 1,025,000,000, thus passing this criterion. This is a bonus criterion and will not adversely affect the ability of a stock to pass the strategy as a whole if it is failed.

The preceding concludes Buffett's qualitative analysis. If and when he gets positive responses to all the above criteria, he would then proceed with a price analysis. The price analysis will determine whether or not the stock should be bought. The following is how he would evaluate MA quantitatively.

STAGE 2: "Should I buy at this price?" Although a firm may be a Buffett type company, he won't invest in it unless he can get a favorable price that allows him a great long term return.


CALCULATE THE INITIAL RATE OF RETURN: [No Pass/Fail]

Buffett compares his type of stocks to bonds, and likes to see what a company's initial rate of return is. To calculate the initial rate of return, take the trailing 12-month EPS of $6.42 and divide it by the current market price of $275.91. An investor, purchasing MA, could expect to receive a 2.33% initial rate of return. Furthermore, he or she could expect the rate to increase 16.7% per year, based on the average of the 3, 4 and 5 year historical eps growth rates, as this is how fast earnings are growing.


COMPARE THE INITIAL RATE OF RETURN WITH THE LONG-TERM TREASURY YIELD: PASS

Buffett favors companies in which the initial rate of return is around the long-term treasury yield. Nonetheless, he has invested in companies with low initial rates of return, as long as the yield is expected to expand rapidly. Currently, the long-term treasury yield is about 2.00%. Compare this with MA's initial yield of 2.33%, which will expand at an annual rate of 16.7%, based on the average of the 3, 4 and 5 year historical eps growth rates. The company is the better choice, as the initial rate of return is close to or above the long term bond yield and is expanding.


CALCULATE THE FUTURE EPS: [No Pass/Fail]

MA currently has a book value of $4.93. It is safe to say that if MA can preserve its average rate of return on equity of 54.6% and continues to retain 85.01% of its earnings, it will be able to sustain an earnings growth rate of 46.4% and it will have a book value of $223.19 in ten years. If it can still earn 54.6% on equity in ten years, then expected EPS will be $121.87.


CALCULATE THE FUTURE STOCK PRICE BASED ON THE AVERAGE ROE METHOD: [No Pass/Fail]

Now take the expected future EPS of $121.87 and multiply them by the lower of the 5 year average P/E ratio or current P/E ratio (43.0) (5 year average P/E in this case), which is 31.2 and you get MA's projected future stock price of $3,796.32.


CALCULATE THE EXPECTED RATE OF RETURN BASED ON THE AVERAGE ROE METHOD: [No Pass/Fail]

Now add in the total expected dividend pool to be paid over the next ten years, which is $24.80. This gives you a total dollar amount of $3,821.13. These numbers indicate that one could expect to make a 30.1% average annual return on MA's stock at the present time. Buffett would consider this an absolutely fantastic expected return.


CALCULATE THE EXPECTED FUTURE STOCK PRICE BASED ON AVERAGE EPS GROWTH: [No Pass/Fail]

If you take the EPS growth of 16.7%, based on the average of the 3, 4 and 5 year historical eps growth rates, you can project EPS in ten years to be $30.11. Now multiply EPS in 10 years by the lower of the 5 year average P/E ratio or current P/E ratio (43.0) (5 year average P/E in this case), which is 31.2. This equals the future stock price of $937.99. Add in the total expected dividend pool of $24.80 to get a total dollar amount of $962.79.


CALCULATE THE EXPECTED RETURN USING THE AVERAGE EPS GROWTH METHOD: [No Pass/Fail]

Now you can figure out your expected return based on a current price of $275.91 and the future expected stock price, including the dividend pool, of $962.79. If you were to invest in MA at this time, you could expect a 13.31% average annual return on your money. Buffett likes to see a 15% return, but nonetheless would accept this return.


LOOK AT THE RANGE OF EXPECTED RATE OF RETURN: PASS

Based on the two different methods, you could expect an annual compounding rate of return somewhere between 13.3% and 30.1%. To pinpoint the average return a little better, we have taken an average of the two different methods. Investors could expect an average return of 21.7% on MA stock for the next ten years, based on the current fundamentals. Buffett would consider this a great return, thus passing the criterion.



Watch List

The top scoring stocks not currently in the Hot List portfolio.

Ticker Company Name Current
Score
SLP SIMULATIONS PLUS, INC. 100%
MEDP MEDPACE HOLDINGS INC 63%
LPLA LPL FINANCIAL HOLDINGS INC 54%
EME EMCOR GROUP INC 53%
FL FOOT LOCKER, INC. 52%
GPS GAP INC 51%
URBN URBAN OUTFITTERS, INC. 51%
MBT MOBIL'NYE TELESISTEMY PAO (ADR) 50%
NSSC NAPCO SECURITY TECHNOLOGIES INC 48%
AMTD TD AMERITRADE HOLDING CORP. 46%



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