How You Can Be Like Buffett

In every other issue of my investment newsletter, The Validea Hot List, I look in detail at one of the computerized guru models I run on In this week’s issue, I outlined my Patient Investor strategy, inspired by the approach that Warren Buffett has used to become one of history’s greatest investors. Below you […]

Roubini Offers Good News (Sort Of)

Nouriel Roubini — the economist who predicted the economic crisis and who has been dubbed “Dr. Doom” for his dire predictions — now thinks the global recession will end later this year, significantly earlier than he has previously predicted. “We are not yet at the bottom of the U.S. and the global recession,” Roubini told […]

Zweig: WWGD? (What Would Graham Do?)

Writing sixty years to the day after Benjamin Graham’s classic The Intelligent Investor was published, Jason Zweig says that Graham would be cautious amid a market like this one. “Today the market seems to be in just the kind of mood that would have worried Mr. Graham: a jittery optimism, an insecure and almost desperate […]

Tilson Turns Bearish on Banks

About two months after turning bullish on some financials, Whitney Tilson — who predicted the housing bust and financial crisis — is now taking profits on some of his bank bets and predicting that more financial troubles are on the way. “There will be a headwind of continued losses for the better part of five […]

Stocks Rising, Dollar Falling — How to Benefit from Both

As stocks have surged over the past two-and-a-half months, the dollar has tumbled. And, according to Francois Trahan and ISI Group’s Portfolio Strategy Group, you can reap the benefits of both. On, Randall W. Forsyth writes that Trahan’s group says investors bullish on U.S. equities should buy stock in big, global companies that may […]

The Other Side: Bond Backers Remain Wary of Equities

While many have joined the bullish camp in recent weeks, several top strategists remain much less enthusiastic about stocks, notes’s Stan Luxenberg. Chief among the bears is Rob Arnott, of Research Affiliates and the PIMCO All Asset fund. Arnott, who recently published a paper saying that bonds — not stocks — have historically been […]

Top Timing Newsletters All Bullish

The seven most successful market-timing newsletters are all bullish, writes MarketWatch’s Mark Hulbert, who tracks investment newsletters’ performance at his Hulbert Financial Digest. Hulbert says he searched his database for newsletters that outperformed buy-and-hold strategies in the 2000-2002 bear market, the current bear market, and the bull market that occurred in between. He found that […]

Is This Crisis Really a “White Swan”?

In a recent article for the CFA Institute Conference Proceedings Quarterly, James Montier, Societe Generale Cross Asset Research’s global strategist, argues that the recent economic crisis and market plunge were not, as many have said, an unprecedented, unpredictable “black swan” event. Instead, he says the events have the characteristics of what psychologists call a “predictable […]

Lynch Pupil Makes Major Bank Move

FBR Funds Chief Investment Officer David Ellison, who avoided much of the financial sector meltdown, has been buying up bank shares lately — and a big reason, he says, involves the lessons he learned while working under the great Peter Lynch earlier in his career. According to Reuters, Ellison had just 10% of the FBR […]

The Real Question

(Excerpted from John Reese’s May 15 Validea Hot List newsletter) The big question for the market continues to be whether or not the recent rally is for real. Given the cooling off of the past week or so, the weaker-than-hoped-for April retail sales data, and the fact that we’ve just gone through one of the […]

Opposing Views from Two Top Market-Timers

Which way is the market headed? In articles on and, two market-timers with good track records lay out starkly different viewpoints on the issue. On the bullish side is Gray Emerson Cardiff of the Sound Advice investment newsletter, according to Peter Brimelow of MarketWatch. The newsletter has averaged a 7.16% annual return over […]

Hulbert: Fear Is Encouraging

In his latest column for MarketWatch, newsletter-watcher Mark Hulbert of Hulbert Financial Digest makes an interesting observation about fear and contrarian investing, one that echoes the findings of one of the great gurus we follow, Martin Zweig. Writing about the recent Las Vegas Money Show, Hulbert says that sentiment among the conference’s presenters was decidedly […]

Why Those 1982 Valuations Might Never Come

As the current market rally has evolved, one of the main arguments against this being the start of a new bull market has involved valuations. While value metrics like the 10-year P/E ratio and Tobin’s Q have been low compared to historical standards, they haven’t gotten as low as they have in other past downturns. […]

Shilling: Still Bearish

Gary Shilling, the economist, money manager, and Forbes columnist, isn’t changing his bearish view, despite the market’s big recent rally. “I think it is a bear market rally,” Shilling told Yahoo! TechTicker this morning. He says he expects S&P 500 earnings of about $40 for 2009. Put what he calls a “generous” multiple of 15 […]

O’Shaughnessy: Major Opportunities in Dividend Stocks

Even after the market’s recent rally, Jim O’Shaughnessy is continuing to see a myriad of values in the market, he recently told CNBC. “I think it’s very sustainable,” O’Shaughnessy, the fund manager and author whose study of quantitative strategies and historical stock market returns is one of the most extensive in history, said of the […]

The Contrarians’ Revenge?

MarketWatch recently had an interesting piece on contrarian investment strategies, highlighting the fact that many of the contrarian managers who were hit hard last year are now netting some strong bounce-back gains. “As the market has bounced back in recent weeks, [several] contrarian-style funds, with their bargain-minded ways, have been outperforming,” writes MarketWatch’s Sam Mamudi, […]

Many Technical Strategies Didn’t Escape Meltdown — And Now Lag S&P

The recent struggles of many top fundamental-focused stock-pickers — Warren Buffett, Bill Miller, David Dreman — have been well-documented. But according to Bloomberg, many technical-based stock-selection strategies have also been hammered during the recent bear — and now are significantly lagging the market in the rebound. “Ever since the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index peaked […]

Schwab Strategists: Rally Will Hold

Two top Charles Schwab strategists — Chief Investment Officer Jeff Mortimer and Portfolio Manager Paul Alan Davis — said today that the current rally is for real, and that long-term investors should be putting money into equities. Mortimer tells Yahoo! TechTicker that the March 9 low had fundamentals similar to those of the 1974 and […]

Grantham: S&P 1000-1100 by Year-End — Then Trouble

GMO Chairman Jeremy Grantham released his first-quarter letter today. While Grantham reiterates some of the points GMO made in its first-quarter update (which we reviewed yesterday), he adds a good deal of new predictions and analysis, and his exceptional track record merits a quick look at some of his key points, beginning with the good […]

Shiller: Be in Stocks & Real Estate, Despite Risks

Yale economist and housing-bust-predictor Robert Shiller says that, while housing and stock prices could well go lower in the short term, now is a good time for investors to be in both equities and real estate. “I’m less pessimistic than I was a few months ago,” Shiller told Bloomberg when asked about stocks. “The price-earnings […]