Bob Doll’s 10 Predictions for 2017

Nuveen Asset Management’s Bob Doll shared his ten predictions for the coming year in Business Wire: Predictions for 2017 U.S. and global economic growth improves modestly and dollar strengthens (and reaches parity with the Euro); Unemployment drops to its lowest level in 17 years, and wages increase at the fastest pace since the Great Recession; Treasury yields move higher (for a third consecutive year) for the first time in 26 years, and Fed raises rates twice; Stocks hit their 2017 highs in the first half of the year as earnings rise but price/earnings multiples fall; For the first time in […]

Expectations for 2017 Market

An overview of expectations and factors that could affect the market in the coming year were outlined by strategist Burt White of LPL Financial in a recent Barron’s article. GDP: “We expect growth to accelerate modestly to near 2.5% with a low chance of a recession in 2017, driven by gains in consumer and business spending, supported by potential pro-growth fiscal policies.” While White says the odds of a recession based on economic data remain low, a “policy mistake” by the incoming administration could increase risk. LPL, he writes, expects stocks to outperform bonds in 2017, but with the “overall […]

Wall Street’s Cheery Outlook Could Be Wrong

While investment firms will probably predict that the market will rise in 2017, writes Jeff Sommer of The New York Times, “That’s just not what they usually do.” He says that, “while a handful of individual forecasters have, from time to time, predicted mildly negative years for stocks, the Wall Street consensus in every single year since 2000 has predicted a rising market.” However, he points out, since the beginning of 2000, the S&P 500 has “ended in negative territory in five calendar years (2000, 2001, 2002, 2008 and 2015) and has been virtually flat once (in 2011).” The article […]

Bob Doll’s 2016 Recap and 2017 Outlook

As the markets diverge in the coming year, investment selectivity will become more important, writes Nuveen’s top strategist in a recent Barron’s article. He says that the post-election shift in financial markets led to his firm’s tweaking of predictions for 2017, and compares the original forecasts with actual trends: Correct: US real and nominal GDP remain below 3% and 5%, respectively, for an unprecedented 10th year in a row; US Treasury rates rise for a second year, but high-yield spreads fall; Standard & Poor’s 500 earnings make limited headway as consumer spending advances are partially offset by oil, the dollar and wage […]

Beware of Rosy Stock Market Predictions

We’ve written before about the precarious nature of forecasts, and an article in last week’s Wall Street Journal sings the same tune—that investors shouldn’t get “carried away” with predictions that the market is headed for one of the best years ever. At the beginning of this year, it says, the average prediction was that the S&P 500 would “end at 2216, a figure hit—and passed—for the first time on Wednesday.” It argues, however, that “this year’s accuracy was a matter of luck, not a sudden improvement in the forecasting power of brokers.” Among the naysayers is David Kostin, chief U.S. […]