Has the Housing Market Turned? Nope, Say Tilson & Heins

In their latest column for Kiplinger’s, Whitney Tilson and John Heins — who were way ahead of the curve in predicting the housing crisis — say they don’t think the housing collapse is behind us. “As much as we’d like to believe otherwise, we expect housing prices to resume their decline well into 2010,” the duo writes. “As a result, financial companies exposed to the housing sector will endure substantially higher-than-normal losses for several more years.” While the problems caused by subprime loans are mostly behind us, Tilson and Heins say “the market for midprice and expensive homes, however, is […]

Six Lessons from the Bear Market

In their latest Kiplinger’s column, Whitney Tilson and John Heins — who were well ahead of the curve on the housing and financial meltdown last year — use their own experience and those of other noted investors to offer six lessons to take from the recent bear market. Their lessons: Beware of over-concentration: This one comes from top manager Mohnish Pabrai, who believed his previous allocation of 10% on 10 different investments was too concentrated and led to his poor 2008. Pabrai has since changed his approach to aim for 5% positions for his favorite ideas, or 2% positions for […]

Tilson & Heins Say Financial Sector Troubles Will Linger …

In their “Discovering Value” column in Kiplinger’s, Whitney Tilson and John Heins say they think the strong recent market rebound is overdone, because we’re not out of the financial sector woods yet. “We think the financial system has many years of significantly higher than normal losses to work through,” the duo writes. “As the greatest bubble in history deflates, it will continue to affect the economy, corporate earnings and the stock market.”

Tilson, Heins, and Recency Bias

How did so many investors and analysts fail to recognize the looming economic and stock market crises in recent years? In their latest Forbes column, Whitney Tilson and John Heins say that “recency bias” is a big reason — and a major challenge facing all investors. “One of the more insidious investor biases is a natural tendency to assume that the future will look like the recent past,” write Tilson and Heins in explaining recency bias (sorry no link — the article is available only in Forbes magazine and is not online). “The best investors don’t fall into this trap.”

Tilson & Heins: How You Can Be a Stock “Lion” Like Templeton

Barry Ritholtz isn’t the only successful manager saying investors should be making “watch lists”. In their latest “Discovering Value” column for Kiplinger’s, Whitney Tilson and John Heins say that maintaining a watch list of stocks you’re interested in is a key to good investing. “The stock market rarely offers truly exceptional buying opportunities, so it pays to be prepared when one comes along,” Tilson and Heins write. “We suggest that you maintain a watch list of companies that you would love to own, or own more of, at the right price. … When the stock hits the target, you strike […]