This Late Stage Economic Cycle Could Be Coming to an End

The current robust earnings season shows that investors are willing to pay for companies that are performing well but are also overlooking those where “growth is anything but stellar,” says a recent article in The Wall Street Journal. Based on history, it says, this could be a “sign that the stock market rally, and the economic expansion, is nearing its end. Late in economic expansions, the article says, “earnings growth slows and profit margins narrow. That puts a premium on companies that are able to keep generating growth. Indeed, in the latter stages of both the bull market that ended […]

Barry Ritholtz: Market Performance Isn’t Due to President

In a recent Bloomberg article, the co-founder and chief investment officer of Ritholtz Wealth Management debunks the notion that the stock market’s record performance is tied to hopes around the president’s policy agenda. Ritholtz argues, “First, there is the tendency of the markets to ignore the dysfunction in Washington—as they have for most of the past decade. If the markets are really rallying on expectations of good things from the government, then the inability to get anything done in the past few years should have thrown them into reverse.” He goes on to explain some other human brain tendencies, including […]

Sonders: Market Most Likely in Post-Echo Bull Phase

Liz Ann Sonders, chief strategist for Charles Schwab, outlines the four phases of the stock market over a full market cycle. Since 1960, the market can be seen following the four distinct periods: recession bear, post-recession bull, echo bear and post-echo bull. Recession Bear: these are the big bear markets, usually lasting a few years and averaging declines of 30%. The 2007-2009 bear market, as Sonders points out, fell by 54% so that was a much larger loss than after. Post Recession Bull: this is the immediate 1-2 years following the bear market. There tends to be a large snapback […]

Understanding the Seven Phases of Bull Markets and Why this Bull Market is Still Alive

Ron Meisels, founder and president of the independent research firm Phases & Cycles, says that we are in a defined pause in a bull market that will resume late this year and continue through 2016. Meisels contends that market cycles have seven phases – five bullish and two bearish – and in the fourth phase, a consolidation before the bull market enters its fifth and final phase.  “A bull market goes through lags and corrections, and we were overdue for this correction,” he said.  Still, Meisels expects things to get worse before they get better. He predicts a low around […]