Allianz’s El-Erian Says to Scale Back Risk

Can President-elect Trump deliver on fiscal stimulus and job growth after taking office next month in the face of a fractious American Congress? The question, posed in last week’s Bloomberg, is addressed by Mohammed El-Erian, Bloomberg columnist and chief economic advisor at Allianz SE, who says reducing risk by increasing cash holdings might be a good idea. Trump’s promises for tax cuts and spending increases are bolstering growth forecasts, but El-Erian believes that the currently robust market has “priced in no policy mistakes. We’ve priced in no market accidents, and we’ve ignored all sorts of political issues.” Mark Kiesel, chief […]

Allianz’s El-Erian Discusses Brexit

According to Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic adviser at Allianz, there is a common thread running through Brexit, claims of inconsistency in the Fed’s actions, the rise of negative interest rates and ‘strange politics”. Investment News reports that, in a recent media briefing, he described the commonality as “advanced economies’ inability to grow in an inclusive manner.” El-Erian explains that when a small segment of the population reaps the benefits of a sluggish economy, “strange things start to happen. And we ain’t seen anything yet.” He refutes the notion that low growth is a cyclical issue. Instead, El-Erian blames an overreliance […]

Investors face a “New Operating Regime,” El-Erian Says

Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic advisor of Allianz SE and chairman of President Obama’s Global Development Council, says “[f]inancial markets are now transitioning . . . to a new operating regime.” He contends that this means “volatility bouts will be more frequent and, in some cases, more violent than in the last few years.” Further, he suggests that that “challenge will be in monitoring carefully the tipping points for various market segments, along with related price overshoots and undue asset-class contagion.” El-Erian points to nine aspects of the change: “Bouts of volatility are to be expected;” They will be “amplified by […]

El-Erian: Expect Major Volatility – and Big Opportunities

Mohamed El-Erian, says to expect major volatility in the coming months — volatility that will create some great opportunities. “We have a bumpy road ahead of us, but I keep on stressing, it will create a lot of attractive opportunities,” he told CNBC. El-Erian said the global market may experiencing a shift to a “higher volatility regime,” meaning that asset allocations will become aggressive and price multiples will begin “looking high.” That’s when markets overshoot and act with too much correlation, creating the opportunity is, he says. He also says that opportunities may well be occurring in emerging markets and […]

El-Erian: U.S. Improving, But “Not At Escape Velocity”

PIMCO’s Mohamed El-Erian says the U.S. economy is improving, but still has big issues to deal with. “We continue to heal … but we’re not at escape velocity,” El-Erian tells CNBC. He says that while improvement can be seen in areas like housing, the U.S. hasn’t gotten over “the three big issues”: not enough aggregate demand, too few structural reforms, and too much leverage (which has been shifted from the private sector to the public sector). El-Erian says he thinks Treasury yields may actually fall in the next few months, but he thinks that the long-term environment is one of […]

El-Erian On How Japan Impacts The Bond Market

PIMCO’s Mohamed El-Erian says what’s happening in Japan is key to what will happen with the bond market in the U.S. El-Erian tells CNBC that the latest stage of the stock market rally seems to have been driven by Japan’s big stimulus efforts, and by the notion in general that central banks around the globe are “all in” in terms of bolstering markets. El-Erian says he thinks that over the next few months we’ll find that Japan central bank policies are becoming “increasingly ineffective”, however. He says markets have priced in the idea that central bank growth will give way […]

El-Erian: Markets Front-Running BOJ

PIMCO’s Mohamed El-Erian says that all assets are trading at “very artificial” levels due to central bank policies. El-Erian tells Yahoo! Finance’s Daily Ticker that central banks’ flooding of the markets with liquidity is the reason why stocks are up significantly this year while Treasury rates have actually fallen. He says that the U.S. economy is healing slowly, and that companies are helping markets by giving cash back to shareholders. But he says the markets are front-running central banks’ liquidity deluge, and that the most recent rise in U.S. markets is a front-running of the Bank of Japan’s loosening policies. […]

El-Erian: Fed Using Cyclical Medicine To Treat Structural Problem

PIMCO’s Mohamed El-Erian says central banks are continuing down a path that has an incredibly bifurcated set of outcomes. “Rather than step back and ask why (the measures have not succeeded), they just go deeper and deeper,” El-Erian tells CNBC of the loose money policies central banks around the globe are using. “The question is, will they finally succeed in transitioning from assisted growth to real growth, or will it end in tears? I think that’s a major uncertainty and the market doesn’t quite understand just how binary this outcome is.” El-Erian says that the U.S. unemployment problems are structural, […]

El-Erian: Time To Scale Back Risk

PIMCO’s Mohamed El-Erian says it’s time to gradually take money off the table because asset prices have gotten ahead of fundamentals. “We think that prices are artificially high, that maintaining them here is going to be hard as central banks become less effective, and that it’s time to book some profits and to wait for some better entry points,” El-Erian tells Yahoo! Finance’s Daily Ticker. But he also says that this isn’t a “Lehman moment.” But he thinks “prices that have gotten way ahead of what policy can deliver.” El-Erian also talks about how the easing policies of central banks […]