Validea is a unique, Internet-based supplier of research and analytical tools for the individual and professional investors. What Validea does is interpret the investment strategies of well-known stock market investors, whom we call "gurus," and give you the ability to apply these interpretations to analyze virtually any stock or to follow proven model portfolios based on these investment legends.
We recommend that before you go any further, you read our free report on guru investing by clicking here.
The guru strategies on our site are based on historically successful investors who have proven track records and, often, have truly legendary reputations. They include: Warren Buffett, David Dreman, Kenneth Fisher, Benjamin Graham, Peter Lynch, The Motley Fool, John Neff, James P. O'Shaughnessy, John Piotroski and Martin Zweig. The strategies are based on our best interpretation of the published writings of the gurus and are not endorsed by them.
We first choose a group of investors whose abilities are practically beyond dispute. We then carefully read what they themselves have written about their methodologies and how they analyze potential investments. Almost all of our gurus have written one or more books or articles describing their approach to analyzing stocks. The one exception is Warren Buffett; we base our interpretation of his methodology primarily on the book, Buffettology, by Mary Buffett, as well as on other published materials.
When we read about a guru, we break down, into discrete variables, what the guru looks for when selecting stocks. We then take these criteria and create a model that we think fairly represents his investment strategy. Then, using financial data supplied by Reuters, we automatically apply this model to the 3000+ publicly traded companies in our universe. As a member of Validea, you have access to these models and analyses. Note, our approach is not endorsed or otherwise authorized by any of the gurus. We read their books and articles, and other materials about them, identify the variables we believe they use, interpret their strategies and weight the various criteria based on what we think is the emphasis the guru gives to each criteria. What we provide is our interpretation of how these gurus operate.
You don't have to get the information. That's our job. We find the data and calculate the variables for you. If you need the current ratio or the EPS, for instance, our software, which is patented, automatically does this work for you. With Validea, you just type in the stock symbols of companies you want to know more about, and we do the analysis, including breaking down each and every variable for each and every guru strategy for each and every company. It's automatic and instant. And, our site is updated every weekday night.
There's an old saying: Don't reinvent the wheel. These gurus have strategies which have been tested and used by investors for years, even decades. If you think you are a smarter student of the stock market than Graham, Buffett, Lynch, Dreman, Fisher and the like, then, quite honestly, you don't need Validea. If, however, you think folks like these are pretty savvy and have ideas which are worthwhile, then you'd do well to listen to them, understanding, of course, that you'll be using our interpretation of their strategies.
We at Validea believe that the most effective and successful investors are those with a logical, proven plan that they follow, no matter what. We analyze stocks and make recommendations based on cold, hard calculations. No emotion, no hunches - only the numbers matter. We let the guru strategies be our guides because we think emotion is an enemy of the investor, not a friend.
We don't believe in selling things "sight unseen." That's why we offer a FREE, seven day trial subscription. During this time, you'll have full access to all of Validea's features. If you don't find our information and analysis worthwhile, you risk nothing, you pay nothing. If, on the other hand, you find that Validea offers unique views of the stock market that you cannot find anywhere else, you are invited to join. The cost, after the free trial membership is $29.95 per month, $74.95 per quarter, or $269.95 per year. You can sign up for a free trial by clicking here
Validea membership provides full-access to all of our subscription services and features including our Guru Analysis, Guru Stock Screener and Model Portfolios as well as our bi-weekly Hot List Newsletter.
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Guru Analysis provides an in-depth analysis of any stock using Validea's interpretations of the published writings of (or, in the case of Warren Buffett, the writings about) 12 of history's most successful investors. These include: Warren Buffett, David Dreman, Kenneth Fisher, Benjamin Graham, Peter Lynch, The Motley Fool, John Neff, James P. O'Shaughnessy, Joseph Piotroski and Martin Zweig.
Using the power of Validea's computer programming and its access to the financial data of Reuters, Guru Analysis takes virtually any stock listed on the New York Stock Exchange, NASDAQ and the smaller exchanges, and analyzes them based on each guru's published strategy. Each strategy has different criteria it looks at. Guru Analysis runs each criteria of each strategy against the financial data of the company you are studying. It then tells you, instantly, how each of our 12 strategies rates the stock; you get 12 scores or ratings for each stock.
The Guru Analysis ratings or scores (scores and ratings are the same thing) are based on a range of 0 percent to 100 percent for each strategy as it is applied to the stock you are interested in. The ratings factor the number of tests the stock "passes" for each strategy. If it passes none of the strategy's tests, it gets a rating of 0 percent; and if it passes all tests, it gets a 100 percent rating. Different tests within each strategy get different weightings, because each investor thinks some criteria are more important than others. Our interpretations of the strategies take these different weightings into consideration. In fact, some criteria are so important to certain gurus that, if the stock fails one of those criteria, it fails the guru's strategy entirely, and will get a score of 0 percent, even if it passes other tests.
Strong Interest and Some Interest are a way to tell how well a stock meets a particular strategy's criteria. Strong Interest indicates that a stock meets essentially all of the criteria and Some Interest indicates that it meets most of the criteria. The scores that result in Strong Interest and Some Interest will vary for each strategy, but as a general rule 90% or above results in Strong Interest and 80% or above results in Some Interest.
The Guru Analysis is updated each night.
We launched model portfolios based on our guru strategies on July 15, 2003. We have a portfolio based on each of our guru strategies and several that combine all them. View the Model Portfolio Returns.
No, the names of individual investment advisors (i.e., the 'gurus') appearing on our site are for identification purposes of his methodology only, as derived by Validea.com from published sources, and are not intended to suggest or imply any affiliation with or endorsement or even agreement with our reports personally by such gurus, or any knowledge or approval by such persons of the content of our site.
The Guru Stock Screener allows you to see the stocks currently passing the strategies from our Guru Analysis. You can see the stocks that pass a particular strategy you are interested in or you can combine the strategies to see stocks that pass multiple gurus simultaneously. You can also combine your own fundamental criteria with our guru strategies to create custom screens.
Validea Model Portfolios are 10 and 20 stock simulated portfolios based on the strategies on our site. We offer two types of model portfolios:
Guru-based portfolios: For each of our 12 guru strategies, we offer a 10 or 20 stock model portfolio. Both portfolios are offered for three rebalancing periods: monthly, quarterly or annual.
Consensus portfolios: Portfolios that draw from all of our guru strategies are our consensus portfolios. They are a consensus of all of the individual guru strategies. Probably the most widely followed of all of our portfolios is one of our consensus portfolios, the Validea Hot List portfolio.
The Validea Hot List model portfolio is based on a proprietary system we have developed that combines all of the guru strategies on our site. The system looks for the stocks with the most combined interest from our 12 strategies, but with a twist. The twist is that we weight the strategies with the best historical risk-adjusted performance more heavily in our Hot List scoring system. The result is a portfolio of the stocks with the most combined interest from our strategies with the best historical risk-adjusted performance.
The stocks in each guru portfolio represent the stocks that score the highest according to the particular strategy's guru score. The stocks in our consensus model portfolios are determined using a combination of all our guru strategies.
The stocks within our monthly model portfolios are updated once every 28 days on Friday. Our quarterly portfolios are updated once per quarter. Our annual model portfolios are updated once every year. The performance figures shown on the site are updated each night.
Each time we update the model portfolios, we perform a simulated transaction in which we sell the stocks that were previously in the portfolio and then buy the new stocks that currently meet the criteria of the model portfolio. By performing the updates to the portfolio using this method, we are able to not only get the new stocks in and the old stocks out, but also to ensure that the stocks are equally weighted on each update date.
Our original group of guru strategies consisted of eight strategies. We started tracking the performance of them on July 15th, 2003. These are clearly listed on the site under, "Individual Guru Portfolios started on July 15th, 2003." We have a policy of adding strategies when we find those that are powerful and successful. These are listed on the site under. "Individual Guru Portfolios started after July 15th, 2003." At this time, we have added three guru strategies to our original group of eight. The consensus portfolios were all begun on July 15th, 2003, and are tracked from that date.
Yes, we utilize a sliding scale stop loss system in our portfolios that is only applied on our scheduled rebalancing dates. The stop loss percentage we use starts at 40%, but it is adjusted based on the performance of the market. When the market return is positive, the stop percentage rises and when the market is down, the stop percentage falls. The amount it rises and falls is determined by a proprietery calculation we have developed.
The model portfolios are only updated every 28 days, quarterly, or once per year depending on the portfolio type. The Guru Stock Screener is updated every day. As a result, the stocks in a model portfolios will not always match the highest scoring stocks in the Guru Stock Screener and the current portfolio. In addition, our model portfolios have both size and liquidity requirements, to prevent small and thinly traded stocks from being added. The guru stock screener does not impose these requirements, and as a result, the highest scoring stocks from the Guru Stock Screener will sometimes not be added to our portfolios.
Validea Professional features the best stock ideas and research that our system has to offer. The product of over a decade of testing and refinement, it consists of three products: trade alerts, industry- and country-based portfolios and professional stock reports.
Validea Professional costs $99.95 per month or $269.95 per quarter. Validea Professional includes a full subscription to Validea.com, so current Validea.com subscribers only pay the difference between the cost of their current plan and the cost of Validea Professional.
Validea Professional's trade alerts offer the best individual stock ideas that our system has to offer. Through our extensive testing, we have identified a series of high conviction guru signals that, when met, typically lead to significant market outperformance. These signals can be based on individual guru strategies, combinations of strategies, or our proprietary consensus systems. Subscribers are emailed immediately when a trade signal is triggered and each signal is delivered along with performance information that explains, in detail, how it has performed in the past.
Trade alerts are not issued on a regular schedule. They are issued only when the signals we follow identify a new opportunity. Their frequency can vary greatly depending on market conditions. Alerts are always issued at 11AM on the issue date. This is done to ensure fair dissemination of information to all subscribers. The closing price on the issue date is used to track performance.
Average signal return is the average return of all previous trades generated using that specific trade signal over the time period specified.
We use 15% stop losses for all trade alerts. Since we do not lock in our start prices for performance tracking until the market close on our alert dates, stop prices are not available when the alerts are initially issued, but they are made available the following day on the trade alert page of our website.
We looked at the performance of each signal that we use in trade alerts over a variety of periods. Using that data, and data regarding the performance of the market over the same period, we developed a detailed performance tracking system that dynamically determines the optimal holding period for each signal. That system determines the end date for each alert.
Accuracy indicates the percentage of all previous trades for that trade signal that produced a positive return. Accuracy vs. the S&P 500 indicates the percentage that produced a return that exceeded the return of the S&P 500 over the same period.
Our trade alert system includes in excess of 20 individual trade signals. When a series of these trade signals identify the same stock at once, multiple trade alerts will be issued for that stock. These alerts may or may not have different holding periods because the optimal holding period of each individual signal is determined using the historical results of that signal. Our testing has shown that when multiple signals identify the same stock, the result is often significant market outperformance.
Our industry and country portfolios provide subscribers with the top stocks using our proprietary Consensus system across all major sectors, regions and countries. The system allows subscribers to track top-performing regions like China and Latin America as well as top-performing sectors. The stocks within the portfolios are updated monthly and portfolio performance is updated daily.
Professional product subscribers receive unlimited access to our professional PDF stock reports, which sell for $25 each via our partner sites. These reports provide a detailed analysis of any given stock and combine the hundreds of data points that we analyze together to create a simple letter grade ranging from A to F for each stock. Our research has indicated that A-rated stocks produce significant market outperformance over time.
Our professional reports are updated every other week on Friday. The reports are issued on this schedule to maintain consistency with the update schedule of our letter grading system (which is also updated every other week).
Trend Following is a technical system that is used to move into and out of stocks and other asset classes when technical conditions deteriorate. The goal of trend following is to move into cash when a particular asset class is showing signs of further losses in order limit major drawdowns. When the asset class begins to appreciate in price again and show positive technical signs, the system will return to an invested position.
Trend Following uses moving averages, which are just the average price of an asset over a specified number of periods. For example, the 50 day moving average of the S&P 500 is the average of its price over the past 50 trading days. Our trend following system uses the 50 day and 200 day moving averages. When the price of an asset class breaks down technically according to a system we have developed that combines these moving averages, our system will generate a sell signal. When the price begins to move up and our sell criteria is no longer met, our system will indicate a buy signal.
Applying the system every day would generate excessive signals into and out of asset classes. For that reason, we apply the system once per week based on Friday's close price.
In general, trend following has worked historically because it partially offsets the negative role that emotions play in investing. Trend following systems typically limit losses during major market declines and limit volatility. These are the times when investors tend to make their worst decisions. By moving to cash during these periods, a trend following system can increase the likelihood that an investor will continue to adhere to an investing strategy during these times. The trade off that comes with this is that trend following systems will generate false signals during declines in up markets and require patience during these false signals in order to realize their long-term benefits.
Performance varies across different asset classes. We show the performance of our trend following system for a large variety of assset classes and industries, and for all our guru portfolios here
We are believers in evidence-based investing. The goal of our website is to present quantitative models that have proven themselves over time. Trend following has very strong long-term performance supporting it and we have presented that performance on the website so our users can evaluate it for themselves. We remain big believers in buy and hold investing, but also recognize that different investors have different risk tolerances, and as a result, different types of investment strategies appeal to them. So we present both buy and hold and trend following results on our website and allow users to evaluate the data for themselves.